Once again, Katy "Wall Street's worst Apple watcher" Hubert shows she really doesn't understand Apple's business model. This time it's partly structural and partly reality. First, Apple really doesn't care about the enterprise market, and they shouldn't. There are far more consumers willing to buy the iPhone than there will ever be enterprise customers; Apple has done a great job making the iPhone enterprise-friendly, but this really isn't their primary market. It's a competitive move to knock RIM. Second, Apple has no incentive to reduce price. They are struggling to keep up with demand already. Why create more demand only not to be able to satisfy it? Discussions of reducing price aren't founded in supply-side reality.
Katy Huberty's track record is horrible. She is not a StarMine-rated overachiever.
AppleInsider really show not be referring to her predictions, as well as those from Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, Gartner, and Enderle. Her Apple predictions are garbage; she does not understand this company nor market.
You would be shocked to see how many of the most highly touted "crystal ball gazers" (analysts, fund managers, etc) end yup getting everything wrong, yet still have a job and are constantly appearing on national TV. A peer of mine created a spreadsheet of annual predictions by these "titans of Wall Street" and based on twelve asset allocation areas, only one got over two areas correct! Pathetic.
It is also interesting to note how many of these clowns were touting Europe as a solid and reasonably growth opportunity just two months ago. Now it's like Marvin in the movie Wall Street: "We're getting out NOW!"
Katy Huberty jumping on board and is one of the last to join the 300 club, Until we see things improving in europe the U.S. market is not going higher and neither is APPLE.
By the way I don't see a time frame in her prediction. So she's calling for $400 by when???
The thing is that if in this climate Apple continues to grow revenue and its coffers swell still further, it may well be that investors looking for a major brand to invest in will give Apple a serious look.
Apple weathered last fall's downturn in part because it wasn't dependent on the banking sector, being as Apple has its own money, and because today's average consumer would rather go without food and water than part with their cell phones.
You would think that a high-tech company selling higher-priced products would be hurt by a weak economy but people will not start their belt-tightening with their gadgets. Not this generation of consumers.
As long as the good numbers just keep on coming, Apple's stock will go higher. So how you deal wth AAPL as an investor hinges on what you believe is going to happen with the overall financials. If you think they can keep it up, it's a good place to stay invested. If not, time to take your profits and run. Maybe I'll regret sticking with them but I believe there is more upside in Apple still and that the company is making money in a clear, logical manner. By that I mean, it's not a smoke and mirrors sort of thing ala Enron. Apple sells millions of units at a profit. The company continues to innovate and tap into new revenue sources yet remains a well-controlled operation, not branching out with no sense of direction.
I don't even think losing Steve Jobs would slow the company down (there would be an initial hit to the stock but it would be a short-lived drop) at least not for a few years on account of the company's strategy for the next few years is well defined.
I bought in when the stock was at $27 and have owned shares in the company since. It's been a great ride and while I know that there is a danger I might stay in too long, so far that hasn't been the case.
You would be shocked to see how many of the most highly touted "crystal ball gazers" (analysts, fund managers, etc) end yup getting everything wrong, yet still have a job and are constantly appearing on national TV.
No, I'm not surprised at all.
I've largely given up listening to anyone who's not a five-star rated analyst and even those guys make errors (the StarMine ratings are graded on a curve). Even consensus views are dubious as these guys don't seem to agree on anything.
I wish that AppleInsider would quote the four- or five-star analysts, not blathering fools like Huberty.
Congratulations, your timing was good. But are you ever planning to get back in with that money? Are you planning to do well by recognizing the peaks and valleys as they happen, or have you taken your profit for good because Apple's growth potential no longer looks as strong as it previously did?
I can't say what the future looks like. As for now, Apple's price appears to be reasonable to me in light of their current situation. I'm buying undervalued stocks right now.
Unfortunately, it is generally the case that when the entire market is behind something, it falls off a cliff. When EVERYONE is bullish, it's time to sell, or at least hedge your bets (I sold about 1/2 my AAPL at 270).
Now, if Enderle starts saying something positive about Apple, then it's DEFINITELY time to sell.
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Apple has massive growth potential through the iPad, and also through the iPhone through other countries and carriers going forward. This ignores every other aspect of their business. Unless something terrible happens, Apple will continue to grow, and so will their stock (assuming other factors are balanced—global changes to the stock market change the game for reasons unrelated to Apple's stock).
Huberty was the farthest off the last couple times her AAPL predictions were made, so it's well worth waiting and seeing.
Good point, but then again, she has been one of the chief AAPL skeptics, so having her come to the party might be a significant development.
BTW, not that anyone at AI will care, but the term "AAPL stock" which is used so often in AI stories is a redundancy, since AAPL means "Apple stock" all by itself.
Apple weathered last fall's downturn in part because it wasn't dependent on the banking sector, being as Apple has its own money, and because today's average consumer would rather go without food and water than part with their cell phones.
Forgetting for a moment that AAPL was slammed by a 60% drop in value at the lowest point in the overall market crisis. The fact that the stock recovered fairly quickly had nothing to do with their cash reserves (did they have to spend any of it to get through those months?), and everything to do with being able to show continued growth in earnings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Apple has massive growth potential through the iPad, and also through the iPhone through other countries and carriers going forward. This ignores every other aspect of their business. Unless something terrible happens, Apple will continue to grow, and so will their stock (assuming other factors are balanced—global changes to the stock market change the game for reasons unrelated to Apple's stock).
Edit: That said, analysts are morons.
I agree. Even professional stock pickers have an extremely difficult time choosing when to get out of and into stocks, and missing ideal timing even by a small degree negates the advantage of holding through corrections. Very few sell-professed market timers actually calculate how they would have done over time had they simply held the stocks they like through corrections. This gives them the illusion that they have done well by the strategy, when it is highly likely that they have not.
Forgetting for a moment that AAPL was slammed by a 60% drop in value at the lowest point in the overall market crisis. The fact that the stock recovered fairly quickly had nothing to do with their cash reserves (did they have to spend any of it to get through those months?), and everything to do with being able to show continued growth in earnings.
They never had to spend any cash during the recession. They were profitable the entire time and exceed the rest of the industry by a large margin.
I can't remember the last time Apple posted an unprofitable quarter. Before the iPod? Late Nineties?
That's nice and as a stockholder I'm very happy, but the better gauge of how things have changes will be when Apple is also making more revenue per quarter.
I won't even discuss making more profit per quarter as MS' software puts them so far ahead of Apple in that sense that it's no even funny. People forget how much larger the profit margin is with SW v. HW.
They never had to spend any cash during the recession. They were profitable the entire time and exceed the rest of the industry by a large margin.
I can't remember the last time Apple posted an unprofitable quarter. Before the iPod? Late Nineties?
That would be my point. Cash reserves have little practical value unless they are spent on expanding the business, or used to make up for cash flow if it goes negative.
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Or, more likely, that I obviously know more about stock picking than you do. Pigs get slaughtered.
I've been tracking my investments for over a decade - and beat the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones by an average of 5% per year over that time frame. That's HUGE. I think I'll pass on taking stock advice from you.
Apple won't be hitting the $400. The DJIA will continue to upset the stocks due to its fluctuating habbits. Not stability until the Amero is mainstream.
Katy Huberty jumping on board and is one of the last to join the 300 club, Until we see things improving in europe the U.S. market is not going higher and neither is APPLE.
By the way I don't see a time frame in her prediction. So she's calling for $400 by when???
...until the twelfth of never-- and that's a long, long time!
That's nice and as a stockholder I'm very happy, but the better gauge of how things have changes will be when Apple is also making more revenue per quarter.
I won't even discuss making more profit per quarter as MS' software puts them so far ahead of Apple in that sense that it's no even funny. People forget how much larger the profit margin is with SW v. HW.
one key difference.
Apple revenue, profit and market share are all going UP.
Apple revenue, profit and market share are all going UP.
Microsoft is pretty stagnant.
They are definitely "catching up" and I think it will be within a few quarters that AAPL bests MSFT in revenue, but at current profit margins AAPL will have make (if I recall correctly) about 4x as much revenue per quarter than MSFT to equal their profits per quarter.
Comments
Katy Huberty's track record is horrible. She is not a StarMine-rated overachiever.
AppleInsider really show not be referring to her predictions, as well as those from Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, Gartner, and Enderle. Her Apple predictions are garbage; she does not understand this company nor market.
You would be shocked to see how many of the most highly touted "crystal ball gazers" (analysts, fund managers, etc) end yup getting everything wrong, yet still have a job and are constantly appearing on national TV. A peer of mine created a spreadsheet of annual predictions by these "titans of Wall Street" and based on twelve asset allocation areas, only one got over two areas correct! Pathetic.
It is also interesting to note how many of these clowns were touting Europe as a solid and reasonably growth opportunity just two months ago. Now it's like Marvin in the movie Wall Street: "We're getting out NOW!"
Katy Huberty jumping on board and is one of the last to join the 300 club, Until we see things improving in europe the U.S. market is not going higher and neither is APPLE.
By the way I don't see a time frame in her prediction. So she's calling for $400 by when???
The thing is that if in this climate Apple continues to grow revenue and its coffers swell still further, it may well be that investors looking for a major brand to invest in will give Apple a serious look.
Apple weathered last fall's downturn in part because it wasn't dependent on the banking sector, being as Apple has its own money, and because today's average consumer would rather go without food and water than part with their cell phones.
You would think that a high-tech company selling higher-priced products would be hurt by a weak economy but people will not start their belt-tightening with their gadgets. Not this generation of consumers.
As long as the good numbers just keep on coming, Apple's stock will go higher. So how you deal wth AAPL as an investor hinges on what you believe is going to happen with the overall financials. If you think they can keep it up, it's a good place to stay invested. If not, time to take your profits and run. Maybe I'll regret sticking with them but I believe there is more upside in Apple still and that the company is making money in a clear, logical manner. By that I mean, it's not a smoke and mirrors sort of thing ala Enron. Apple sells millions of units at a profit. The company continues to innovate and tap into new revenue sources yet remains a well-controlled operation, not branching out with no sense of direction.
I don't even think losing Steve Jobs would slow the company down (there would be an initial hit to the stock but it would be a short-lived drop) at least not for a few years on account of the company's strategy for the next few years is well defined.
I bought in when the stock was at $27 and have owned shares in the company since. It's been a great ride and while I know that there is a danger I might stay in too long, so far that hasn't been the case.
You would be shocked to see how many of the most highly touted "crystal ball gazers" (analysts, fund managers, etc) end yup getting everything wrong, yet still have a job and are constantly appearing on national TV.
No, I'm not surprised at all.
I've largely given up listening to anyone who's not a five-star rated analyst and even those guys make errors (the StarMine ratings are graded on a curve). Even consensus views are dubious as these guys don't seem to agree on anything.
I wish that AppleInsider would quote the four- or five-star analysts, not blathering fools like Huberty.
Congratulations, your timing was good. But are you ever planning to get back in with that money? Are you planning to do well by recognizing the peaks and valleys as they happen, or have you taken your profit for good because Apple's growth potential no longer looks as strong as it previously did?
I can't say what the future looks like. As for now, Apple's price appears to be reasonable to me in light of their current situation. I'm buying undervalued stocks right now.
If that situation changes, I may buy in again.
Apple is not infallible, but I'm strongly convinced that the best is yet around the corner for the company...
Unfortunately, it is generally the case that when the entire market is behind something, it falls off a cliff. When EVERYONE is bullish, it's time to sell, or at least hedge your bets (I sold about 1/2 my AAPL at 270).
Now, if Enderle starts saying something positive about Apple, then it's DEFINITELY time to sell.
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Apple has massive growth potential through the iPad, and also through the iPhone through other countries and carriers going forward. This ignores every other aspect of their business. Unless something terrible happens, Apple will continue to grow, and so will their stock (assuming other factors are balanced—global changes to the stock market change the game for reasons unrelated to Apple's stock).
Edit: That said, analysts are morons.
Huberty was the farthest off the last couple times her AAPL predictions were made, so it's well worth waiting and seeing.
Good point, but then again, she has been one of the chief AAPL skeptics, so having her come to the party might be a significant development.
BTW, not that anyone at AI will care, but the term "AAPL stock" which is used so often in AI stories is a redundancy, since AAPL means "Apple stock" all by itself.
Apple weathered last fall's downturn in part because it wasn't dependent on the banking sector, being as Apple has its own money, and because today's average consumer would rather go without food and water than part with their cell phones.
Forgetting for a moment that AAPL was slammed by a 60% drop in value at the lowest point in the overall market crisis. The fact that the stock recovered fairly quickly had nothing to do with their cash reserves (did they have to spend any of it to get through those months?), and everything to do with being able to show continued growth in earnings.
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Apple has massive growth potential through the iPad, and also through the iPhone through other countries and carriers going forward. This ignores every other aspect of their business. Unless something terrible happens, Apple will continue to grow, and so will their stock (assuming other factors are balanced—global changes to the stock market change the game for reasons unrelated to Apple's stock).
Edit: That said, analysts are morons.
I agree. Even professional stock pickers have an extremely difficult time choosing when to get out of and into stocks, and missing ideal timing even by a small degree negates the advantage of holding through corrections. Very few sell-professed market timers actually calculate how they would have done over time had they simply held the stocks they like through corrections. This gives them the illusion that they have done well by the strategy, when it is highly likely that they have not.
Forgetting for a moment that AAPL was slammed by a 60% drop in value at the lowest point in the overall market crisis. The fact that the stock recovered fairly quickly had nothing to do with their cash reserves (did they have to spend any of it to get through those months?), and everything to do with being able to show continued growth in earnings.
They never had to spend any cash during the recession. They were profitable the entire time and exceed the rest of the industry by a large margin.
I can't remember the last time Apple posted an unprofitable quarter. Before the iPod? Late Nineties?
MSFT $*233,027,640,585.60
AAPL $*226,571,889,379.50
.
AAPL market cap is within $6.5 Billion of MSFT
MSFT $*233,027,640,585.60
AAPL $*226,571,889,379.50
.
That's nice and as a stockholder I'm very happy, but the better gauge of how things have changes will be when Apple is also making more revenue per quarter.
I won't even discuss making more profit per quarter as MS' software puts them so far ahead of Apple in that sense that it's no even funny. People forget how much larger the profit margin is with SW v. HW.
They never had to spend any cash during the recession. They were profitable the entire time and exceed the rest of the industry by a large margin.
I can't remember the last time Apple posted an unprofitable quarter. Before the iPod? Late Nineties?
That would be my point. Cash reserves have little practical value unless they are spent on expanding the business, or used to make up for cash flow if it goes negative.
And looking at Apple's performance relative to the huge dip we've suffered in the stock market due to governmental changes in the US and economic troubles in Europe, if not for that factor this would have been a bad move for you. Apple would certainly be higher than 270. Saying, "I sold because I anticipated the drop back to around DOW 10,000" would be impressive. What you're saying just demonstrates that you got lucky (temporarily) but not that you did something intelligent.
Or, more likely, that I obviously know more about stock picking than you do. Pigs get slaughtered.
I've been tracking my investments for over a decade - and beat the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones by an average of 5% per year over that time frame. That's HUGE. I think I'll pass on taking stock advice from you.
Katy Huberty jumping on board and is one of the last to join the 300 club, Until we see things improving in europe the U.S. market is not going higher and neither is APPLE.
By the way I don't see a time frame in her prediction. So she's calling for $400 by when???
...until the twelfth of never-- and that's a long, long time!
.
AAPL market cap is within $6.5 Billion of MSFT
MSFT $*233,027,640,585.60
AAPL $*226,571,889,379.50
.
And the good news for AAPL is that MSFT is not a moving target. Pretty much flat for many years now. Why? No new ideas.
That's nice and as a stockholder I'm very happy, but the better gauge of how things have changes will be when Apple is also making more revenue per quarter.
I won't even discuss making more profit per quarter as MS' software puts them so far ahead of Apple in that sense that it's no even funny. People forget how much larger the profit margin is with SW v. HW.
one key difference.
Apple revenue, profit and market share are all going UP.
Microsoft is pretty stagnant.
one key difference.
Apple revenue, profit and market share are all going UP.
Microsoft is pretty stagnant.
They are definitely "catching up" and I think it will be within a few quarters that AAPL bests MSFT in revenue, but at current profit margins AAPL will have make (if I recall correctly) about 4x as much revenue per quarter than MSFT to equal their profits per quarter.