If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.
All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...
The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.
He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shard
US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.
A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.
I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.
Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
The only thing that surprises me is that some people don't seem to get why new data results in new conclusions. Obviously some would have been more satisfied if Munster had picked a number back in January and stuck with it, no matter what happened later.
Actually, I'd rather have analysts -- regardless of whom -- predicting 6.2 and Apple selling 10, than vice versa.
Will do wonders for my wealth.
And actually, with "an embarassment of riches" vis-Ã*-vis Mobile OSX 4.0, potential iPhone hardware upgrade, iPad International phase 2 and so on, I think Apple however probably has this well-handled. I can't imagine that Apple, once recovered from the surprising demand for the iPad (as averred to by both Jobs and Cook), will change significantly the scheduled announcements and updates as they work through dove-tailing the iPad line into the update sequencing. The immediate release issues are just that, they may overlap some of the other announcements initially but this shouldn't be an issue they need to address long-term.
I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.
Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
Gene Munster.........Last person to listen to. Apparently submits his stories to AI for publicity. His Analysis leaves much to be desired.
Apple on track to sell about 9 to 10 million units. Keep in mind back to school 3rd quarter and the holiday 4th quarter which follows it. Supply constraint or other unknowns could slow it down.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...
The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.
He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.
Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.
I agree with everything you've stated and I'm not defending Munster's method as being sound, just stating how I think he may be calculating his numbers.
At the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up, the total by New Years should be 2 + 7 x 2.5 = 19.5 million. I guess the issue is can all the parts suppliers keep up with the 2.5 million per month planned operation going into effect now.
I think supply will be the limiting factor now, with NAND flash being a particular problem. For Apple to do 10 million iPads, the semiconductor industry will need to increase output by about 300,000 wafers this year. That's the output of 1 pretty big fab, and there are none scheduled to come on-line until early next year.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...
The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.
He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
I'll see your 10 million and raise it by two. $12 million total.
Somewhere, on one of these forums I was able to come up with the following, based on planned production ramp ups-- 1.5 million units june-Aug; 2.5 million units Sep-Dec.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
I would guess their employers already do something along those lines.
Whilst I personally think a lot of what Gene Munster says is bizarre, it's unlikely Piper Jaffray would continue to employ him if he was useless.
Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.
That does not seem like satisified demand to me.
I don't think Apple is even close to caught up. I actually expect a ramp in sales as the software situation firms up and iPhone4.0 runs on the unit.
What I means by the software situation is the availability of iPad targetted apps instead of 2x iPhone apps. Frankly that is happening faster than expected as the utility consummer apps are already filling in. Still as more apps become available there will be fewer reasons for people to resist.
Of course with nothing available for sale resisting is a bit easier
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...
The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.
He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.
The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.
Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.
I think they will hit 10 million by years end. I say 9 million is the minimum.
As long as there are no burps in the supply chain. I expect strong sales all year with a possible big bump when iPhone OS 4.0 arrives.
Quote:
Of course, this depend on supply and such.
The new iPhone should also have very strong sales so its hard to say if that might hit iPad sales a bit. Of course, the iPhone is a smartphone not the same as a iPad.
The interesting thing here is that I was expecting to upgrade my iPhone with the new release next week. However iPad has me rethinking the rush to do that.
Quote:
Some people might get by with a regular phone and get an iPad instead and some may buy the iPhone and delay or not buy an iPad. Never 100% sure what the consumer is thinking.
Count me as one that is torn. I'm actually considering several options but I can actually see iPad depressing iPhone sales. In my case I don't spend a lot of time talking on my cell, iPhone though allows me to really keep myself organized. I'm not sure I want to give up having all those features in my pocket.
So I will take a long hard look at the new iPhone instead of jumping the gun. It is a tuff decision but I want to minimize my expenses in the best way possible.
Quote:
Mac sales will be interesting.
If anything at all is impacted it would be laptop sales. Honestly though I don't see a big impact from iPad and iPhone sales. If anything we are likely to see a continued rise in sales due to that halo effect.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
The Wall Street Journal just came out with their annual list of 'star' analysis, sorted by industry. Munster was not in the top 5 in his industry (http://online.wsj.com/public/page/be...he-street.html ; need a subscription to see, though).
As to whether recommendations of star analysts matter, the short answer is yes, sort of. The classic study in that area is: "Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts," Scott E. Stickel, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 5 (Dec., 1992), pp. 1811-1836. (If you googled it, you should be able to see an abstract somewhere).
I expect to keep (and upgrade) my iPhone and get an iPad. My envisioned uses for my (on order, soon to arrive) iPad seem to center around tasks done while sitting. I have found that much of my Internet use of the iPhone is done while standing. In these cases, there's a very good chance the iPad won't be with me. Thus, I feel a personal need to have both. (Any excuse for new toys, eh?)
I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.
It's possible that the decision to invest in the creation of the Apple Store was the most important decision that Jobs made. The bias of store clerks in big box stores was a continuing, almost implacable challenge for Apple until they opened their own stores. The irony is that changing the environment changed the sale of Apple products from a depressed ghetto off in a corner to the apex of the retail world. It shows the incompetence of the management of Best Buy and others.
As a matter of logistics it is necessary to include Best Buy, Radio Shack, Walmart and others because there is just too much territory and too many people to cover. I bought my iPad at Best Buy because it is much closer than the only Apple Store in Tucson. But as your anecdote illustrates it is still important for Apple to continue building Apple Stores.
6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.
I know, right?
I completely agree with the 10 million + assessment (although much depends on Apple's ability to supply the demand).
They've sold 2 million already. If they can maintain a manufacturing level of 1 million units a month, I think they'll easily sell them. That would add another 7 million to the sales total (there are 7 months left in the year). That's 9 million.
If they can ramp up production, they'll easily sell an additional million. I actually think they'll sell pretty much everything they can produce at any level. If they can ramp to 2 million a month, they'll sell all of them, even if only by opening additional markets.
Next year, 20 million easily. With 30 million iPads in the market (and by then easily a few 10s of thousands of iPad-specific apps), the ecosystem takes on its own momentum.
The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.
Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.
I actually disagree with you 100%.
Munster was rightfully criticized when he put in a million "what if's" when he predicted the 45 million iphone a year number --- 3 years later and we still haven't seen the mythical nano iphone. China didn't start selling the iphone 2 years later. He put the cart in front of the horse when he was making his estimates.
Now Munster is doing the right thing. When number sales numbers come in, Munster changes his estimate models. When actual news come in (like Apple actually announces international sales in this and that country), Munster changes his estimate models.
Do you want Munster to make his estimates on known facts or on some mythical rumors? We have no idea when China is going to sell the ipad. It may be next quarter or it may be in 2 years. I rather prefer Munster to make his estimates right now --- without looking at the China rumor. When Apple announces the China launch date, then Munster can make a new estimate by that time.
Comments
I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.
Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
Actually, I'd rather have analysts -- regardless of whom -- predicting 6.2 and Apple selling 10, than vice versa.
Will do wonders for my wealth.
This is Gene Munster.
Flip flop...
If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.
All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario... He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.
A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.
I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.
Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
The only thing that surprises me is that some people don't seem to get why new data results in new conclusions. Obviously some would have been more satisfied if Munster had picked a number back in January and stuck with it, no matter what happened later.
Actually, I'd rather have analysts -- regardless of whom -- predicting 6.2 and Apple selling 10, than vice versa.
Will do wonders for my wealth.
And actually, with "an embarassment of riches" vis-Ã*-vis Mobile OSX 4.0, potential iPhone hardware upgrade, iPad International phase 2 and so on, I think Apple however probably has this well-handled. I can't imagine that Apple, once recovered from the surprising demand for the iPad (as averred to by both Jobs and Cook), will change significantly the scheduled announcements and updates as they work through dove-tailing the iPad line into the update sequencing. The immediate release issues are just that, they may overlap some of the other announcements initially but this shouldn't be an issue they need to address long-term.
I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.
Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
Gene Munster.........Last person to listen to. Apparently submits his stories to AI for publicity. His Analysis leaves much to be desired.
Apple on track to sell about 9 to 10 million units. Keep in mind back to school 3rd quarter and the holiday 4th quarter which follows it. Supply constraint or other unknowns could slow it down.
6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.
I'll see your 10 million and raise it by two. $12 million total.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario... He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.
Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.
I agree with everything you've stated and I'm not defending Munster's method as being sound, just stating how I think he may be calculating his numbers.
At the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up, the total by New Years should be 2 + 7 x 2.5 = 19.5 million. I guess the issue is can all the parts suppliers keep up with the 2.5 million per month planned operation going into effect now.
I think supply will be the limiting factor now, with NAND flash being a particular problem. For Apple to do 10 million iPads, the semiconductor industry will need to increase output by about 300,000 wafers this year. That's the output of 1 pretty big fab, and there are none scheduled to come on-line until early next year.
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario... He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
I'll see your 10 million and raise it by two. $12 million total.
Somewhere, on one of these forums I was able to come up with the following, based on planned production ramp ups-- 1.5 million units june-Aug; 2.5 million units Sep-Dec.
. 3.5 Million units CQ 2
+4.5 Million units CQ 3
+7.5 Million units CQ 4
----------------------
15.5 Million units CYE 2010
.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
I would guess their employers already do something along those lines.
Whilst I personally think a lot of what Gene Munster says is bizarre, it's unlikely Piper Jaffray would continue to employ him if he was useless.
Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.
That does not seem like satisified demand to me.
I don't think Apple is even close to caught up. I actually expect a ramp in sales as the software situation firms up and iPhone4.0 runs on the unit.
What I means by the software situation is the availability of iPad targetted apps instead of 2x iPhone apps. Frankly that is happening faster than expected as the utility consummer apps are already filling in. Still as more apps become available there will be fewer reasons for people to resist.
Of course with nothing available for sale resisting is a bit easier
Dave
This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario... He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.
A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.
The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.
Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.
I think they will hit 10 million by years end. I say 9 million is the minimum.
As long as there are no burps in the supply chain. I expect strong sales all year with a possible big bump when iPhone OS 4.0 arrives.
Of course, this depend on supply and such.
The new iPhone should also have very strong sales so its hard to say if that might hit iPad sales a bit. Of course, the iPhone is a smartphone not the same as a iPad.
The interesting thing here is that I was expecting to upgrade my iPhone with the new release next week. However iPad has me rethinking the rush to do that.
Some people might get by with a regular phone and get an iPad instead and some may buy the iPhone and delay or not buy an iPad. Never 100% sure what the consumer is thinking.
Count me as one that is torn. I'm actually considering several options but I can actually see iPad depressing iPhone sales. In my case I don't spend a lot of time talking on my cell, iPhone though allows me to really keep myself organized. I'm not sure I want to give up having all those features in my pocket.
So I will take a long hard look at the new iPhone instead of jumping the gun. It is a tuff decision but I want to minimize my expenses in the best way possible.
Mac sales will be interesting.
If anything at all is impacted it would be laptop sales. Honestly though I don't see a big impact from iPad and iPhone sales. If anything we are likely to see a continued rise in sales due to that halo effect.
That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.
I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:
1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.
or
2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.
It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
The Wall Street Journal just came out with their annual list of 'star' analysis, sorted by industry. Munster was not in the top 5 in his industry (http://online.wsj.com/public/page/be...he-street.html ; need a subscription to see, though).
As to whether recommendations of star analysts matter, the short answer is yes, sort of. The classic study in that area is: "Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts," Scott E. Stickel, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 5 (Dec., 1992), pp. 1811-1836. (If you googled it, you should be able to see an abstract somewhere).
Count me as one that is torn.
I expect to keep (and upgrade) my iPhone and get an iPad. My envisioned uses for my (on order, soon to arrive) iPad seem to center around tasks done while sitting. I have found that much of my Internet use of the iPhone is done while standing. In these cases, there's a very good chance the iPad won't be with me. Thus, I feel a personal need to have both. (Any excuse for new toys, eh?)
I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.
It's possible that the decision to invest in the creation of the Apple Store was the most important decision that Jobs made. The bias of store clerks in big box stores was a continuing, almost implacable challenge for Apple until they opened their own stores. The irony is that changing the environment changed the sale of Apple products from a depressed ghetto off in a corner to the apex of the retail world. It shows the incompetence of the management of Best Buy and others.
As a matter of logistics it is necessary to include Best Buy, Radio Shack, Walmart and others because there is just too much territory and too many people to cover. I bought my iPad at Best Buy because it is much closer than the only Apple Store in Tucson. But as your anecdote illustrates it is still important for Apple to continue building Apple Stores.
6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.
I know, right?
I completely agree with the 10 million + assessment (although much depends on Apple's ability to supply the demand).
They've sold 2 million already. If they can maintain a manufacturing level of 1 million units a month, I think they'll easily sell them. That would add another 7 million to the sales total (there are 7 months left in the year). That's 9 million.
If they can ramp up production, they'll easily sell an additional million. I actually think they'll sell pretty much everything they can produce at any level. If they can ramp to 2 million a month, they'll sell all of them, even if only by opening additional markets.
Next year, 20 million easily. With 30 million iPads in the market (and by then easily a few 10s of thousands of iPad-specific apps), the ecosystem takes on its own momentum.
Apple, the unstoppable force...
The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.
Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.
I actually disagree with you 100%.
Munster was rightfully criticized when he put in a million "what if's" when he predicted the 45 million iphone a year number --- 3 years later and we still haven't seen the mythical nano iphone. China didn't start selling the iphone 2 years later. He put the cart in front of the horse when he was making his estimates.
Now Munster is doing the right thing. When number sales numbers come in, Munster changes his estimate models. When actual news come in (like Apple actually announces international sales in this and that country), Munster changes his estimate models.
Do you want Munster to make his estimates on known facts or on some mythical rumors? We have no idea when China is going to sell the ipad. It may be next quarter or it may be in 2 years. I rather prefer Munster to make his estimates right now --- without looking at the China rumor. When Apple announces the China launch date, then Munster can make a new estimate by that time.