Apple expected to sell 6.2M iPads in 2010 after strong overseas debut

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
With the iPad crossing the 2 million sales threshold this week, one prominent analyst now believes Apple will sell 6.2 million devices in calendar year 2010, as many of the company's international stores have limited stock.



Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors Tuesday, in which he upped his 2010 sales estimates from 4.3 million, citing strong early sales. 6.2 million in 2010 would add another 25 cents to his calendar year 2010 GAAP earnings per share estimates.



However, given ongoing low supplies of the iPad, Munster also cautioned investors that sales could be limited by availability. The analyst said he believes initial international sales over the weekend contributed at least another 100,000 units.



"We conducted 25 checks at Apple stores in the U.K., Germany, France, Japan and Australia, and found that supply exists after the first weekend of sales, but availability is very limited," he wrote.



Among the 14 international sales that were contacted on last Friday's launch day, 29 percent had sold out. Following the launch weekend, another 11 stores were contacted, and 36 percent were entirely sold out. Similar checks among U.S. Apple stores on May 21 found that 74 percent of stores were completely sold out.



"In other words, supply at international stores is limited and declining, similar to trends we saw at U.S. Apple stores," Munster wrote.







Apple announced on Monday that it had sold 2 million iPads in less than two months. That means Apple has sold about 34,000 per day on average, though Munster said numbers through April likely skewed lower than after launch due to limited U.S. supply. Apple reached its first million sales of the iPad in just 28 days.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 49
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.
  • Reply 2 of 49
    shardshard Posts: 96member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.



    This is Gene Munster.



    Flip flop...



    If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.



    All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.
  • Reply 3 of 49
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,667member
    Right now production seems to be the limiting factor with respect to iPad sales. 10 million would be an easy number to hit this year if they could just get the product out the door. Frankly I'm not to sure Apple was prepaired to produce 1++ million a month.



    Dave
  • Reply 4 of 49
    shardshard Posts: 96member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Right now production seems to be the limiting factor with respect to iPad sales. 10 million would be an easy number to hit this year if they could just get the product out the door. Frankly I'm not to sure Apple was prepaired to produce 1++ million a month.



    Dave



    US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.



    First phase of international launches seems to have gone better than expected and the second phase is a month away. I wonder if they can make that date or will it have to be pushed back for stock to build up to have a significant launch?



    Another thing to note, the new iPhone is supposed to be out soon as well. Apple has been great in phasing and staggering their product launches to maximize customer attention but this year may just be the year they bit off more than they can chew. The new iPhone will be announced and launched amidst an ongoing iPad launch (internationally), the iPhone OS4 update is due out, there should be some new iPods out as well, what about the MacBook Air and Mac Pro?
  • Reply 5 of 49
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,868member
    This is only iPad version one albeit two varieties too! I have to think Apple have several variations in the pipe line of devices using the same interface and OS. A larger version maybe, designed to rest on a table or desk.



    Talking of OS I also have to think the new iPhone OS due soon will also be an upgrade in the making for the iPad. Multi-tasking and folders plus some simple, direct printing ability perhaps.
  • Reply 6 of 49
    tardistardis Posts: 90member
    I brought an iPad back to Japan from the US last month. Every single person who looked at it said they were going to get one.
  • Reply 7 of 49
    markbmarkb Posts: 153member
    Quote:

    US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins



    Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.



    That does not seem like satisified demand to me.
  • Reply 8 of 49
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Given how well the international launch went, the continued 7-10 day wait at the US online store, and no iPads in stock in Boston-area stores, I'm inclined to believe that supply is still the main issue. But we've just seen that Apple can make 1m iPads within a month, and production should be ramping upwards.



    So I'm thinking 1.1m iPads sold in June for 3.1m for the quarter. Then 3.5-4m next quarter as early adopter rush passes but back-to-school buying picks up, but then another 5m+ during the Christmas quarter as iPad will be the premum Christmas gift (with no cell subscription complications). That's around 12m for the calendar year, and if supply is no longer an issue, it's more likely to be higher than lower.
  • Reply 9 of 49
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,567member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shard View Post


    US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.



    Where? Was at 3 Apple stores past week, no supply, 2 week wait list, and packed with interested buyers of a very diverse make-up!



    Quote:

    First phase of international launches seems to have gone better than expected and the second phase is a month away. I wonder if they can make that date or will it have to be pushed back for stock to build up to have a significant launch?



    Unless production has picked up to a $1.2MM rate, there might be some risk...



    Quote:

    Another thing to note, the new iPhone is supposed to be out soon as well. Apple has been great in phasing and staggering their product launches to maximize customer attention but this year may just be the year they bit off more than they can chew. The new iPhone will be announced and launched amidst an ongoing iPad launch (internationally), the iPhone OS4 update is due out, there should be some new iPods out as well, what about the MacBook Air and Mac Pro?



    Very good point! Would they push the new iPhone out to July 1 just to ease the transition?! From the stores I was in, they really aren't in a position for the iPhone rush yet. Maybe they spread the wealth out to Best Buy and Walmart to soften the blow? More emphasis on online orders for launch?
  • Reply 10 of 49
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    Originally Posted by shard

    US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.

    Where? Was at 3 Apple stores past week, no supply, 2 week wait list, and packed with interested buyers of a very diverse make-up!





    I think you may have been in the MAC store and not an Apple store. Common mistake.
  • Reply 11 of 49
    msanttimsantti Posts: 1,377member
    I think they will hit 10 million by years end. I say 9 million is the minimum.



    Of course, this depend on supply and such.



    The new iPhone should also have very strong sales so its hard to say if that might hit iPad sales a bit. Of course, the iPhone is a smartphone not the same as a iPad.



    Some people might get by with a regular phone and get an iPad instead and some may buy the iPhone and delay or not buy an iPad. Never 100% sure what the consumer is thinking.



    Mac sales will be interesting.
  • Reply 12 of 49
    shardshard Posts: 96member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    I think you may have been in the MAC store and not an Apple store. Common mistake.



    Lol!



    I think it is mostly luck which stores have it in stock and for how long.
  • Reply 13 of 49
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    PC Mag says 7.6 mil
  • Reply 14 of 49
    As soon as i read "Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray...", i stop reading further.
  • Reply 15 of 49
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shard View Post


    This is Gene Munster.



    Flip flop...



    If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.



    All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.



    I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.



    Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
  • Reply 16 of 49
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,505member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by markb View Post


    Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.



    That does not seem like satisified demand to me.



    Yeah, Apple typically tries to keep the channel primed with a two-week supply!



    .
  • Reply 17 of 49
    shardshard Posts: 96member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.



    Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.



    I hope you stick to your estimate of 10 and not flip flop to 4 then to 8 etc
  • Reply 18 of 49
    multimediamultimedia Posts: 864member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.



    At the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up, the total by New Years should be 2 + 7 x 2.5 = 19.5 million. I guess the issue is can all the parts suppliers keep up with the 2.5 million per month planned operation going into effect now.
  • Reply 19 of 49
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,607member
    I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.
  • Reply 20 of 49
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.



    Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.



    LOL



    So is this dude infamous for these sort of things or has just his ipad estimates been all over the place?
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