CDMA is dead, why spend money creating a compatible product for the minority market share in the world. Better to skip it, wait till the next gen compatible standard and support that. Its not like they are struggling for customers.
I used to think that too-- Apple should just ignore CDMA.
But, as others have posted, even though dying, CDMA will be around for 6-8 years.
I did some googling and there are some smart phones with both GSM and CDMA, and they are "normally" priced.
But, I don't believe they are really selling-- here's what I suspect are the reasons why:
-- Most GSM users who want a smart phone want (and can get) an iPhone.
-- Most CDMA users who want an iPhone, can't get one-- so they settle for an iPhone wannabe!
This is one of those strategic opportunities!
By manufacturing the iPhone 4 to include both GSM (with more bands) and CDMA, Apple would have an Universal smart phone (and infrastructure) that everybody wants.
Almost any carrier could (and would) sell it. Apple could get a large portion of the existing 455 million 3G CDMA phones in their upgrade cycles over the life of CDMA (8 years)
As the carriers upgrade the networks from CDMA (and GSM), Apple will have a large install base of iPhone n owners, just waiting to upgrade to the next best iPhone.
This is so tempting, so bold and so right that I can taste it!
Actually, as of the date of the letter, Apple had not announced the iPhone 4. So it's hard to know what they meant by "marketing".
I don't think we'll go down the tin-foil-hat path, as some have, that says that the whole iPhone-in-a-bar thing was a superb marketing ploy.
The letter was dated June 4, the iPhone 4 was first announced by Apple on June 7.
The legalese in the letter makes me believe that certification had not yet been granted. So either FCC had committed an approval date to Apple or this is for a different phone. There's no way Steve would have announced a "soon" date if certification was uncertain.
What if Apple has included radios for both GSM (with more bands) and CDMA? This would allow them to market a single handset to most carriers, worldwide, without fragmentation and with economy of scale!
The big CDMA carrier is China Telecom with 65.94 million subscribers:
CDMA is dead, why spend money creating a compatible product for the minority market share in the world. Better to skip it, wait till the next gen compatible standard and support that. Its not like they are struggling for customers.
ATT are only a tiny fraction of the available users worldwide. Apparently they don't care about how bad their network is or their would be zero subscribers.
If Apple wants growth, it has to go with CDMA. The market is saturated in the US with ATT. I think that there is no room for growth. New iPhones will only be sold to the existing base, and very few new folks. Think about it.
there is so much world out there! This continuing US-centric commentary conveniently ignores the bald fact that last quarter international sales made up (if I remember correctly) 46% of the total sales of the iPhone - and was poised to go even bigger - after all there is more non-US population in the world than US population - right? This would seem to indicate that Apple really doesn't have to worry about Verizon, T-Mo or Sprint to keep building world share for the iPhone. Now whether that is sufficient for Apple or if they are willing to embrace Verizon (or another carrier) in the US, only Apple knows and they aren't saying anything at the moment.
I have to talk down my friends who are Verizon loyalists who are taking the pundit bait hook, line and cell-tower for an imminent iPhone on their beloved carrier - as the pressure increases with each new iPhone. Sadly the reports I get from them on their Android phones vary from "this is pretty good" to "it's no iPhone". Verizon could do them good service by keeping updates rolling for their Android phones in the meantime - but I only hope. Their track record has not been good in the past. And I am disappointed for them when I see the phone makers making compromises in the hardware that leave critical details unaddressed - and thus gives the Android phones an unfinished feel. Which of course my geekier friends absolutely revel in. But I digress.
Not surprising that Apple would do this if the timing for the FCC release was not to their schedule.
If Apple wants growth, it has to go with CDMA. The market is saturated in the US with ATT. I think that there is no room for growth. New iPhones will only be sold to the existing base, and very few new folks. Think about it.
Not so. If Apple want real growth they need as many handsets as possible in countries like India and China and so. As I understand it neither use CDMA. A more concerted effort like that means they're taking on Nokia in some of their strongest markets, whereas at the moment they almost play in two different markets.
Not so. If Apple want real growth they need as many handsets as possible in countries like India and China and so. As I understand it neither use CDMA. A more concerted effort like that means they're taking on Nokia in some of their strongest markets, whereas at the moment they almost play in two different markets.
Dick Applebaum posted (see a few posts above) that one Chinese telecom has 65.94 million subscribers and uses CDMA.
And the point is...so what if there are a lot of GSM opportunities still out there? There are also a lot of CDMA users as well, albeit fewer globally than GSM. Apple executives just has to ask themselves, "Would we make more money if we could also sell to a couple hundred million more people by going CDMA?" If the answer is yes, then Apple should do so. The number of remaining GSM opportunities is irrelevant.
There is little reason to keep the FCC info hidden from what I can see. The two main reasons seem to be: 1) policy, and 2) NTT docomo.
I have to think sometime after SoftBank gets its fill NTT docomo will come on as a carrier. After the full 88 country rollout in September? As far as i can tell, it's the only viable network that utilizing the 800MHz spectrum. New Zealand is a joke and T-Mobile is clearly out without the 1700MHz spectrum.
The reason NTT docomo is a better choice over T-Mobile USA seems to come done to subscriber numbers and potential subscriber numbers. We've seen reports that the iPhone has a 72% share of the "smartphone" market, which is impressive in its own right and especially so when you realize SoftBank only has about 25M subs and is the 3rd largest Japanese carrier. By comparison, NTT docomo has over double that number and is the largest Japanese carrier.
Comparing NTT docomo to T-Mobile USA, which is the 4th largest carrier and has nearly half the subscriber base. All evidence points to NTT docomo. What else could it be?
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav
there is so much world out there! This continuing US-centric commentary conveniently ignores the bald fact that last quarter international sales made up (if I remember correctly) 46% of the total sales of the iPhone - and was poised to go even bigger - after all there is more non-US population in the world than US population - right? This would seem to indicate that Apple really doesn't have to worry about Verizon, T-Mo or Sprint to keep building world share for the iPhone. Now whether that is sufficient for Apple or if they are willing to embrace Verizon (or another carrier) in the US, only Apple knows and they aren't saying anything at the moment.
Everything you stated is true, but it ignores the fact that the US is by far the most profitable single country for Apple. This will continue to be the primary reason Apple will focus on the US.
there is so much world out there! This continuing US-centric commentary conveniently ignores the bald fact that last quarter international sales made up (if I remember correctly) 46% of the total sales of the iPhone - and was poised to go even bigger - after all there is more non-US population in the world than US population - right? This would seem to indicate that Apple really doesn't have to worry about Verizon, T-Mo or Sprint to keep building world share for the iPhone. Now whether that is sufficient for Apple or if they are willing to embrace Verizon (or another carrier) in the US, only Apple knows and they aren't saying anything at the moment.
Previously, the growth had come from increasing the number of countries --- Apple pretty much covers all the first and second world countries. Then they increased it further by going multiple carriers in those countries.
Previously, the growth had come from increasing the number of countries --- Apple pretty much covers all the first and second world countries. Then they increased it further by going multiple carriers in those countries.
There isn't going to be much growth beyond that.
Sure there is. The entire smartphone segment is growing rapidly. It should outsell PCs per unit not too long from now. Apple has a lot of growth in nearly all, if not all, countries they are selling in.
That is not to say a CDMA (or TD-SCDMA for China Mobile) iPhone wouldn't increase their sales potential dramatically, it obviously would, but the question to ask is: Are the resources available to feasibly create these entirely new phone types? I'm not sure they can do it.
We've seen reports that the iPhone has a 72% share of the "smartphone" market, which is impressive in its own right...
It may sound impressive, but the same report also said that Japan sold 1.7 million iphones in the fiscal year --- that's a country with 1/2 the population of US. On a per capita basis, that's like AT&T selling 800-900K of iphones every quarter.
Sure there is. The entire smartphone segment is growing rapidly. It should outsell PCs per unit not too long from now. Apple has a lot of growth in nearly all, if not all, countries they are selling in.
That is not to say a CDMA (or TD-SCDMA for China Mobile) iPhone wouldn't increase their sales potential dramatically, it obviously would, but the question to ask is: Are the resources available to feasibly create these entirely new phone types? I'm not sure they can do it.
It's all relative.
The growth would be more --- by Apple going multi-carrier in US, Japan and Korea (big first world countries with exclusive iphone carriers).
Baiscally every carrier in UK and France already sells the iphone, ain't going to be that much growth (aside from growth of general population buying more smart phones).
It may sound impressive, but the same report also said that Japan sold 1.7 million iphones in the fiscal year --- that's a country with 1/2 the population of US. On a per capita basis, that's like AT&T selling 800-900K of iphones every quarter.
1) Their population is just under 40% as of July 2010 estimates from CIA World Factbook. Rounding up 10% is a huge difference when your in the hundreds of millions.
2) Using population sizes makes no size. Using subscriber totals makes sense. As of May 2010 it appears Japan had 117.13M subs and as of December 2009 the US had 285.6M subs. Again, 41%, but we know that the percentage is now smaller 6 months later, but probably still very near 40%.
3) You've missed my quoting "smartphone" to indicate that it's a unique category in Japan with "feature phones" reigning dominate the way "dumb phones" still do in the US. That doesn't take away from their accomplishment.
4) If we compare any smartphone sales in the US to all phones sold or the population total they all look like they are doing poorly.
5) Japan (and South Korea) were considered impossible markets to break into because there technology was far ahead of the rest of the world and no foreign company, especially from the US and no real phone experience was going to be able to walk in and make waves. Do you not remember that? Do you not recall reading that Nokia has pulled out of Japan. It sounds impressive to me, especially considering that the iPhone is sold on the 3rd largest carrier with only 22M subs as May 2010. That is roughly 7.6% of their subs using an iPhone. How can none of that seem impressive to you.
6) For all the things mentioned above and in my previous statement about T-Mobile USA is why I think adding the 800MHz band for NTT docomo is the right way to go. All things being equal, 7.6% of NTT docomo's subscriber base is 4.3M subs, but we both know it's more complex than that and likely to provide many more than 5M additional sales over its first year.
Don't believe a word of it. TheStreet and Scott Moritz are well known for floating rumors about Apple, with the suggestion they try to manipulate the market.
Baiscally every carrier in UK and France already sells the iphone, ain't going to be that much growth (aside from growth of general population buying more smart phones).
But that is still growth.
If your argument is still that Apple has no excuse not to make a CDMA iPhone then I ask you, once again, why you think it's feasible for them? In other words, if they can't supply enough units to provide for their 3GSM iPhones for months after they go on sale, move their ship date back 21 days after 24 hours of pre-orders, and are clearly moving to add at least one new carrier in Japan with about 60M subs, how could they could possibly create a CDMA iPhone for the likes of Verizon and Sprint who you and I both know will them by the millions within days if they can't supply enough units for their current design in a timeframe that seems reasonable?
If your argument is still that Apple has no excuse not to make a CDMA iPhone then I ask you, once again, why you think it's feasible for them? In other words, if they can't supply enough units to provide for their 3GSM iPhones for months after they go on sale, move their ship date back 21 days after 24 hours of pre-orders, and are clearly moving to add at least one new carrier in Japan with about 60M subs, how could they could possibly create a CDMA iPhone for the likes of Verizon and Sprint who you and I both know will them by the millions within days if they can't supply enough units for their current design in a timeframe that seems reasonable?
Your points are well taken!
But the supply issue is one that can and must be resolved within 3 months.
Possibly, Apple has been able to hide an Universal iPhone (Both CDMA and GSM with more bands) within the iPhone 4 (hence the FCC request)
Then, when supply catches up with demand, Apple would be able to offer the same iPhone 4 to a lot of additional countries, carriers and consumers.
In effect, Apple would have a single device that would be the "best in class" smartphone, offered on any network.
Scenario:
Say, October 2010 rolls around, the mfg kinks have been resolved, and the channel is being primed for the holiday season.
Apple announces iPhone 4 CDMA support (and additional GSM Bands) will be available on month/day/year! for all new and existing iPhone 4s.
Apple makes available an iPhone 4 software update to enable the CDMA (and additional GSM Bands).
Depending on Apples goals, supply status, and contracts Apple could set availability on month/day/year to whatever (and wherever) makes sense!
If you look closely at the chart below, you will see that 3GSM has about 200 million subs and CDMA has about 300 million subs.
Those are the cream of the crop for smart phones-- 500 million subs.
The iPhone has an install base of approx. 50 million devices, or 10% market penetration.
Further examination shows that there about 2.5 billion 2GSM subs. These are also potential for the iPhone 4 or the less expensive iPhone 3GS (or even an iPhone Nano).
Looks to me like Apple would, with 2 devices (3 max), be able to sell into every market in the world.
Comments
each iPhone4 contains the soul of a foxconn worker.
Hahaha, comedic gold.
CDMA is dead, why spend money creating a compatible product for the minority market share in the world. Better to skip it, wait till the next gen compatible standard and support that. Its not like they are struggling for customers.
I used to think that too-- Apple should just ignore CDMA.
But, as others have posted, even though dying, CDMA will be around for 6-8 years.
I did some googling and there are some smart phones with both GSM and CDMA, and they are "normally" priced.
But, I don't believe they are really selling-- here's what I suspect are the reasons why:
-- Most GSM users who want a smart phone want (and can get) an iPhone.
-- Most CDMA users who want an iPhone, can't get one-- so they settle for an iPhone wannabe!
This is one of those strategic opportunities!
By manufacturing the iPhone 4 to include both GSM (with more bands) and CDMA, Apple would have an Universal smart phone (and infrastructure) that everybody wants.
Almost any carrier could (and would) sell it. Apple could get a large portion of the existing 455 million 3G CDMA phones in their upgrade cycles over the life of CDMA (8 years)
As the carriers upgrade the networks from CDMA (and GSM), Apple will have a large install base of iPhone n owners, just waiting to upgrade to the next best iPhone.
This is so tempting, so bold and so right that I can taste it!
.
Not to point out the obvious or anything.
Actually, as of the date of the letter, Apple had not announced the iPhone 4. So it's hard to know what they meant by "marketing".
I don't think we'll go down the tin-foil-hat path, as some have, that says that the whole iPhone-in-a-bar thing was a superb marketing ploy.
The letter was dated June 4, the iPhone 4 was first announced by Apple on June 7.
The legalese in the letter makes me believe that certification had not yet been granted. So either FCC had committed an approval date to Apple or this is for a different phone. There's no way Steve would have announced a "soon" date if certification was uncertain.
What if Apple has included radios for both GSM (with more bands) and CDMA? This would allow them to market a single handset to most carriers, worldwide, without fragmentation and with economy of scale!
The big CDMA carrier is China Telecom with 65.94 million subscribers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...work_operators
and, this:
http://moconews.net/article/419-appl...rators-if-the/
And, pickup Verizon when the ATT contract ends.
That's Apple Style!
.
That! seems more likely.
But then, once it is released for sale someone is going to take a look inside.
CDMA is dead, why spend money creating a compatible product for the minority market share in the world. Better to skip it, wait till the next gen compatible standard and support that. Its not like they are struggling for customers.
ATT are only a tiny fraction of the available users worldwide. Apparently they don't care about how bad their network is or their would be zero subscribers.
If Apple wants growth, it has to go with CDMA. The market is saturated in the US with ATT. I think that there is no room for growth. New iPhones will only be sold to the existing base, and very few new folks. Think about it.
I have to talk down my friends who are Verizon loyalists who are taking the pundit bait hook, line and cell-tower for an imminent iPhone on their beloved carrier - as the pressure increases with each new iPhone. Sadly the reports I get from them on their Android phones vary from "this is pretty good" to "it's no iPhone". Verizon could do them good service by keeping updates rolling for their Android phones in the meantime - but I only hope. Their track record has not been good in the past. And I am disappointed for them when I see the phone makers making compromises in the hardware that leave critical details unaddressed - and thus gives the Android phones an unfinished feel. Which of course my geekier friends absolutely revel in. But I digress.
Not surprising that Apple would do this if the timing for the FCC release was not to their schedule.
If Apple wants growth, it has to go with CDMA. The market is saturated in the US with ATT. I think that there is no room for growth. New iPhones will only be sold to the existing base, and very few new folks. Think about it.
Not so. If Apple want real growth they need as many handsets as possible in countries like India and China and so. As I understand it neither use CDMA. A more concerted effort like that means they're taking on Nokia in some of their strongest markets, whereas at the moment they almost play in two different markets.
It's really not. Most companies just ask for a few areas to be kept under wraps for a while, if that.
Bull. Nokia, Microsoft, RIM, Palm, Ericson, Sony, Philips, etc., do it all the time Some a lot, particularly on new technology and innovations.
Not so. If Apple want real growth they need as many handsets as possible in countries like India and China and so. As I understand it neither use CDMA. A more concerted effort like that means they're taking on Nokia in some of their strongest markets, whereas at the moment they almost play in two different markets.
Dick Applebaum posted (see a few posts above) that one Chinese telecom has 65.94 million subscribers and uses CDMA.
And the point is...so what if there are a lot of GSM opportunities still out there? There are also a lot of CDMA users as well, albeit fewer globally than GSM. Apple executives just has to ask themselves, "Would we make more money if we could also sell to a couple hundred million more people by going CDMA?" If the answer is yes, then Apple should do so. The number of remaining GSM opportunities is irrelevant.
Yawn...
I have to think sometime after SoftBank gets its fill NTT docomo will come on as a carrier. After the full 88 country rollout in September? As far as i can tell, it's the only viable network that utilizing the 800MHz spectrum. New Zealand is a joke and T-Mobile is clearly out without the 1700MHz spectrum.
The reason NTT docomo is a better choice over T-Mobile USA seems to come done to subscriber numbers and potential subscriber numbers. We've seen reports that the iPhone has a 72% share of the "smartphone" market, which is impressive in its own right and especially so when you realize SoftBank only has about 25M subs and is the 3rd largest Japanese carrier. By comparison, NTT docomo has over double that number and is the largest Japanese carrier.
Comparing NTT docomo to T-Mobile USA, which is the 4th largest carrier and has nearly half the subscriber base. All evidence points to NTT docomo. What else could it be?
there is so much world out there! This continuing US-centric commentary conveniently ignores the bald fact that last quarter international sales made up (if I remember correctly) 46% of the total sales of the iPhone - and was poised to go even bigger - after all there is more non-US population in the world than US population - right? This would seem to indicate that Apple really doesn't have to worry about Verizon, T-Mo or Sprint to keep building world share for the iPhone. Now whether that is sufficient for Apple or if they are willing to embrace Verizon (or another carrier) in the US, only Apple knows and they aren't saying anything at the moment.
Everything you stated is true, but it ignores the fact that the US is by far the most profitable single country for Apple. This will continue to be the primary reason Apple will focus on the US.
there is so much world out there! This continuing US-centric commentary conveniently ignores the bald fact that last quarter international sales made up (if I remember correctly) 46% of the total sales of the iPhone - and was poised to go even bigger - after all there is more non-US population in the world than US population - right? This would seem to indicate that Apple really doesn't have to worry about Verizon, T-Mo or Sprint to keep building world share for the iPhone. Now whether that is sufficient for Apple or if they are willing to embrace Verizon (or another carrier) in the US, only Apple knows and they aren't saying anything at the moment.
Previously, the growth had come from increasing the number of countries --- Apple pretty much covers all the first and second world countries. Then they increased it further by going multiple carriers in those countries.
There isn't going to be much growth beyond that.
Previously, the growth had come from increasing the number of countries --- Apple pretty much covers all the first and second world countries. Then they increased it further by going multiple carriers in those countries.
There isn't going to be much growth beyond that.
Sure there is. The entire smartphone segment is growing rapidly. It should outsell PCs per unit not too long from now. Apple has a lot of growth in nearly all, if not all, countries they are selling in.
That is not to say a CDMA (or TD-SCDMA for China Mobile) iPhone wouldn't increase their sales potential dramatically, it obviously would, but the question to ask is: Are the resources available to feasibly create these entirely new phone types? I'm not sure they can do it.
We've seen reports that the iPhone has a 72% share of the "smartphone" market, which is impressive in its own right...
It may sound impressive, but the same report also said that Japan sold 1.7 million iphones in the fiscal year --- that's a country with 1/2 the population of US. On a per capita basis, that's like AT&T selling 800-900K of iphones every quarter.
Sure there is. The entire smartphone segment is growing rapidly. It should outsell PCs per unit not too long from now. Apple has a lot of growth in nearly all, if not all, countries they are selling in.
That is not to say a CDMA (or TD-SCDMA for China Mobile) iPhone wouldn't increase their sales potential dramatically, it obviously would, but the question to ask is: Are the resources available to feasibly create these entirely new phone types? I'm not sure they can do it.
It's all relative.
The growth would be more --- by Apple going multi-carrier in US, Japan and Korea (big first world countries with exclusive iphone carriers).
Baiscally every carrier in UK and France already sells the iphone, ain't going to be that much growth (aside from growth of general population buying more smart phones).
It may sound impressive, but the same report also said that Japan sold 1.7 million iphones in the fiscal year --- that's a country with 1/2 the population of US. On a per capita basis, that's like AT&T selling 800-900K of iphones every quarter.
1) Their population is just under 40% as of July 2010 estimates from CIA World Factbook. Rounding up 10% is a huge difference when your in the hundreds of millions.
2) Using population sizes makes no size. Using subscriber totals makes sense. As of May 2010 it appears Japan had 117.13M subs and as of December 2009 the US had 285.6M subs. Again, 41%, but we know that the percentage is now smaller 6 months later, but probably still very near 40%.
3) You've missed my quoting "smartphone" to indicate that it's a unique category in Japan with "feature phones" reigning dominate the way "dumb phones" still do in the US. That doesn't take away from their accomplishment.
4) If we compare any smartphone sales in the US to all phones sold or the population total they all look like they are doing poorly.
5) Japan (and South Korea) were considered impossible markets to break into because there technology was far ahead of the rest of the world and no foreign company, especially from the US and no real phone experience was going to be able to walk in and make waves. Do you not remember that? Do you not recall reading that Nokia has pulled out of Japan. It sounds impressive to me, especially considering that the iPhone is sold on the 3rd largest carrier with only 22M subs as May 2010. That is roughly 7.6% of their subs using an iPhone. How can none of that seem impressive to you.
6) For all the things mentioned above and in my previous statement about T-Mobile USA is why I think adding the 800MHz band for NTT docomo is the right way to go. All things being equal, 7.6% of NTT docomo's subscriber base is 4.3M subs, but we both know it's more complex than that and likely to provide many more than 5M additional sales over its first year.
Actually you're not! Looks like a Verizon iPhone is definitely in the works to be released around the holidays. Follow the link:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10786...e-soaring.html
Don't believe a word of it. TheStreet and Scott Moritz are well known for floating rumors about Apple, with the suggestion they try to manipulate the market.
Just one example:
http://www.edibleapple.com/why-scott...z-is-an-idiot/
Baiscally every carrier in UK and France already sells the iphone, ain't going to be that much growth (aside from growth of general population buying more smart phones).
But that is still growth.
If your argument is still that Apple has no excuse not to make a CDMA iPhone then I ask you, once again, why you think it's feasible for them? In other words, if they can't supply enough units to provide for their 3GSM iPhones for months after they go on sale, move their ship date back 21 days after 24 hours of pre-orders, and are clearly moving to add at least one new carrier in Japan with about 60M subs, how could they could possibly create a CDMA iPhone for the likes of Verizon and Sprint who you and I both know will them by the millions within days if they can't supply enough units for their current design in a timeframe that seems reasonable?
Good God. Yet another thread turned into a Verizon getting the iPhone thread.
Yawn...
Agreed. I think would Apple tell us if they were switching to Verizon. However, they haven't yet out of all the times every said they would.
But that is still growth.
If your argument is still that Apple has no excuse not to make a CDMA iPhone then I ask you, once again, why you think it's feasible for them? In other words, if they can't supply enough units to provide for their 3GSM iPhones for months after they go on sale, move their ship date back 21 days after 24 hours of pre-orders, and are clearly moving to add at least one new carrier in Japan with about 60M subs, how could they could possibly create a CDMA iPhone for the likes of Verizon and Sprint who you and I both know will them by the millions within days if they can't supply enough units for their current design in a timeframe that seems reasonable?
Your points are well taken!
But the supply issue is one that can and must be resolved within 3 months.
Possibly, Apple has been able to hide an Universal iPhone (Both CDMA and GSM with more bands) within the iPhone 4 (hence the FCC request)
Then, when supply catches up with demand, Apple would be able to offer the same iPhone 4 to a lot of additional countries, carriers and consumers.
In effect, Apple would have a single device that would be the "best in class" smartphone, offered on any network.
Scenario:
Say, October 2010 rolls around, the mfg kinks have been resolved, and the channel is being primed for the holiday season.
Apple announces iPhone 4 CDMA support (and additional GSM Bands) will be available on month/day/year! for all new and existing iPhone 4s.
Apple makes available an iPhone 4 software update to enable the CDMA (and additional GSM Bands).
Depending on Apples goals, supply status, and contracts Apple could set availability on month/day/year to whatever (and wherever) makes sense!
If you look closely at the chart below, you will see that 3GSM has about 200 million subs and CDMA has about 300 million subs.
Those are the cream of the crop for smart phones-- 500 million subs.
The iPhone has an install base of approx. 50 million devices, or 10% market penetration.
Further examination shows that there about 2.5 billion 2GSM subs. These are also potential for the iPhone 4 or the less expensive iPhone 3GS (or even an iPhone Nano).
Looks to me like Apple would, with 2 devices (3 max), be able to sell into every market in the world.