Then your doing something wrong, since the iPhone 4 easily rides out areas where my 3G and 3Gs would drop. And I'm not alone - Anadtech and others have published that the iPhone is demonstratively better than it's predicessors
Not when held "wrong". When held in a natural but "wrong" manner, the iPhone 4 is worse than others.
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Listen to the TWIT episode and become informed. It might save you from looking like a nonsensical idiot.
Or it might not. If you're saying twit reveals why holding the iPhone 4 in a natural manner kills reception, then that doesn't solve anything.
Edit: after having viewed the twit episode, Spencer Webb confirms the iPhone 4 design is at fault, not the bars displayed. He also indicates the same phenomenon occurs when holding a Motorola RAZR in the same death grip, because the RAZR has its antenna at the bottom. However, the RAZR antenna is not exposed and available for intimate contact with the body and the death grip Webb demonstrates in the video is an extreme grip, far from being natural or subtle. This is just like previous iPhone generations. The iPhone 4 still stands out as being different in its behavior.
Unfortunately for Google, beating the stuffing out of Yahoo and Microsoft in search is now considered a fait accompli. But Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), with its iPhone and iPad, has become more of a competitor to Google as of late. And Google's growth, while impressive, is pedestrian when compared to Apple.
Oh, I know you're aware. I've been following your analysis since you started. It's very good. I'm just wondering where the "irrational" came from. Which price, the current one, or the one during the height (if you could call it that) of the recession at 80? I don't think the current price is irrational.
Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.
Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.
For all it's benefits, the unexpected dropped calls, missed calls and missed communications are what's at issue. As a crude analogy, Major League Baseball doesn't condone drug use even if players are setting records. Neither should Apple let stand a flawed design just because it's better most of the time.
Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.
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On the contrary, the "wrong way" is natural for most people and is the manner of holding the iPhone 4 that Apple demonstrates in its own promotional videos. An unnatural cupping of the base of previous iPhones would cause reception problems. The iPhone 4 issue is far different, as it merely requires a light touch at the bottom left to completely kill reception in low-signal areas where other phones (previous generation iPhones) are able to make a call and are not so sensitive to normal handling.
I don't see how it's possible that the "wrong" way is the way for as you say "most people". It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem. I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.
But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.
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We have seen reception drop isn't the problem. It's reception killed (hence death grip). I know of no other manufacturer who has this issue with their phones, nor has any previous model iPhone had this issue. It is no coincidence the iPhone 4 is the only one with an antenna exposed as part of the frame where the user is likely to touch it.
As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well. Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception. So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.
As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.
Some people, you for example, seem to be delighted to point it out.
Apple is only paying a 23% tax rate? How can that be when the corporate rate is 36%? They are obviously not paying their fair share. The government is losing billions of dollars of revenue due to some tricky accounting!
Oh please! Learn something about corporate taxes, and then come back.
Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...
It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.
That's the worst regressive tax there is. I hope we never have it.
Then can we call it Apple's not taking direct aim at the real issue?
The number of bars displayed is indeed software. Apple was "stunned". Gosh, oh, golly. The press repeats the story and naively assumes this will address the antenna design problem. From my own observations and the number of similar observations posted on the 'net, I'm quite certain it won't.
Right, the bars displayed is all about software. I agree with that. The real problem, though, is complete loss of reception when a perfectly good (even if low) signal is available.
Oh, please. When was the last time you saw a cell phone with retractable antenna? We're talking about an issue with the iPhone 4 as compared to all other cell phones manufactured in the past 3 years (to include the original iPhone).
But Apple said the bars issue (which you suggest is the real issue) goes back to the original iPhone and iPhone OS 1.0. And the 3G and 3GS are not and never were so "touchy" as the iPhone 4.
How does the metal being exposed not have anything to do with it? It's unique to the iPhone 4 design, that your body can get so close to the antenna.
Ah, but not so easily and naturally as with the iPhone 4.
Actually, all I'm interested in is having Apple satisfy its customers and make sure they know what the real issue is so that they're not unwittingly bitten by it.
So that you can understand the reception issue, and why Apple is changing the way the signal is shown, read this part of the long iPhone 4 review at AnandTech. If you want to read the entire review, at the bottom of the page is a table of contents, so you can go back and forth as you please.
Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.
Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.
I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.
I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.
Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.
A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.
The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.
I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.
Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.
My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.
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It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem.
There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?
Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.
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I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.
But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.
Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.
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As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well.
Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception.
No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.
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So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.
As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.
Some people, you for example, seem to be delighted to point it out.
No, I'm disappointed that I have to bring up the issue, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the peace of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.
It would be all too easy to let this slide, now that it's been several days since I bought a bumper, but it's just not right.
I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.
Interesting! (The device in the video is an E71, not N97). A quick google search reveals comments from 2008, to the effect that the E71 is the worst Nokia yet.
"Your device may have internal and external antennas. Avoid touching the antenna area unnecessarily while the antenna is transmitting or receiving. Contact with antennas affects the communication quality and may cause a higher power level during operation and may reduce the battery life."
Apple should have known better than to use an external antenna.
I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.
I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.
Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.
A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.
The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.
I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.
Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.
Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.
But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
It's not irrational, unless you're talking about the big drop rather than the current price. I was fortunately able to buy more at about 80. Have you looked at the P/E? It's 20. That's not high at all for a growth company. Cisco's is a bit over 19. Even though RIMM's stock is way down from earlier this year, the P/E is still over 23. Google's is also way down, but the P/E is over 20 as well. Look at ARM's P/E, it's over 59!
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.
I'm not trying to say that you aren't seeing the problem. So, are you saying that you dropped a call, or couldn't make one when you tried that/ Or did you just do it to see what happened to the bars?
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There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?
Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.
First of all, from what I'm reading, its said that left handed people that are mostly having the problem. That means the phone would usually be in the right hand. So if it's a problem with the phone in the left hand, then it wouldn't be left handed people. Though, i'm left handed, but bat righty. So we can't always go by that.
But, you're trying to say that this problem happens all the time for these people, and that's not true at all. All reliable reports, not posters, and pardon me, but posters are more likely to exaggerate the problem for effect, have said that the actual problem, that of losing signal, not losing bars, only happens in weak signal areas.
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Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.
No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.
Well, you're saying that, but I haven't seen that written anywhere. The reviews pretty much all say that the iPhone 4 reception is much better than the older phones, except where signal strength is low, and then, it's just as bad.
Look, if the 4 is getting calls, and not dropping them where the older phones were, that's much better, isn't it? And if it then drops calls when holding this way, but not when using a case that's really no worse than before, and actually better, where everyone was complaining about AT&T as being the problem. Possibly, it's both? But you have to make a valid test, which you're not doing. You need several phones at the same place, at the same time, as we see the websites doing this. What you're doing is just guessing what it would be like with other phones, but you don't really know for sure. You can't say that my old phone didn't do this or that. You need the old phone there, doing this or that.
It's the comparison of the much better receptivity of the new phone when compared to the old phone that makes the magnitude seem worse. It was EXPECTED that the phones before would lose calls, and not be able to make calls in weak signal areas, which, by the way, can be anywhere. I get no signal, nor does anyone else, in the Friday's near my house when my friends and I go there for lunch.
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No, I'm disappointed that I have to point it out, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the piece of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.
I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.
I always use cases on my phones, if there are cases for them, and so do many people I know, if not most. There's a pretty big industry making iPhone cases.
But, it just seems to me that those who are making a really big deal about this are only doing so because otherwise, the phone works so well. With the older models, we thought that at any time, we would lose a call, or not be able to make one, but not so with this, which performs so much better. Then, to find that under certain circumstances, the problem is there again, well, uh oh, what's going on? That seems so much worse, but it isn't. It's just that expectations are so much higher.
I wish that this problem wasn't there at all, but if you don't like the phone, then take it back. That's what people do with products that don't meet their expectations. I see no problem here. It's what you would do with any other phone you bought. Why is this different?
I'm pretty objective. You should read the posts of people who complain when I argue that Apple is screwing up.
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
Well, something will happen when SJ dies.
Did you read the former Apple employee accounts of what it's like working at Apple? If SJ wants it, it gets done now; otherwise things can take a long time to get done. What happens when SJ isn't around to want anything anymore?
Now, how does Apple intend to appease iPhone 4 customers over the death grip issue? (The "stunning" bars issue is entirely separate). A free bumper or credit for a previously purchased bumper seems reasonable to me.
I didn't know we were talking about iPhone 4 here, but so be it. Just curious, I think I recall you saying in a previous post you were going to pass on this phone for awhile .... have you given in yet ... or are you still waiting?
Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.
Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.
But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
I just want to say first, that unless you're on the West coast, you're as mad as we are for being up so late! At least I'm retired. We need you to be sharp in the morning.
We've seen Apple's P/E's as high as the mid fourties, as I remember. I don't get concerned until it's in the mid 30's. then I think it could see a big pullback, as it's got a ways to fall, as that high a P/E can't be supported.
But, if Apple keeps running the net higher as it seems to be doing, then a higher price is indicated.
If it does hit $63.5 billion or so, as you believe, it could hit $75 to $80 fiscal 2011. As long as margins aren't eroded by costs in manufacturing; I see Foxcon convinced Apple to allow them to move at least some production away, then margins will be around 38 to 41. With that growth in sales, we'll see a corresponding increase in net, and that leads to...
If the market double dips, as some are saying, everything will be backed up another 9 months to a year in stock pricing, and sales will stutter as it did in later 2008 and early 2009.
Do you think that the estimate of 7.5 million phone sales this quarter because of lack of product in the channel is realistic? Most everyone is thinking this could be a record quarter, except Huberty and a couple others.
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.
Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.
After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?
Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?
A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?
Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.
Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
/agreed. Its frustrating. I've had to deal with this for years. Apple is really an easy company to analyze, and its really sad that the market simply can't get things right. Look at how quickly the financial media can turn against Apple. During the financial crisis, I saw countless of reports on CNBC that were just patently incorrect.
The whole damn market couldn't even come to grips with non-GAAP accounting measures and ended up valuating Apple based on its GAAP earnings. This lead to a valuation that was much lower than almost all other tech stocks. See this article:
That was literally the most frustrating issue I had to deal with. It felt like a bunch of little children ran the entire stock market, and I was left having to try and defend Apple against the most insane bullshit reporting imaginable. The decision by Apple to use the subscription method of accounting was a huge contributing factor to its $80 stock price during the crisis.
Before anyone suggests otherwise, please note that I've debated this issue thoroughly at the time. Apple could have chosen a different system even under GAAP accounting. But chose not to due to offering free software upgrades to the iPhone. You can see a summary of the issues here:
Comments
Then your doing something wrong, since the iPhone 4 easily rides out areas where my 3G and 3Gs would drop. And I'm not alone - Anadtech and others have published that the iPhone is demonstratively better than it's predicessors
Not when held "wrong". When held in a natural but "wrong" manner, the iPhone 4 is worse than others.
Listen to the TWIT episode and become informed. It might save you from looking like a nonsensical idiot.
Or it might not. If you're saying twit reveals why holding the iPhone 4 in a natural manner kills reception, then that doesn't solve anything.
Edit: after having viewed the twit episode, Spencer Webb confirms the iPhone 4 design is at fault, not the bars displayed. He also indicates the same phenomenon occurs when holding a Motorola RAZR in the same death grip, because the RAZR has its antenna at the bottom. However, the RAZR antenna is not exposed and available for intimate contact with the body and the death grip Webb demonstrates in the video is an extreme grip, far from being natural or subtle. This is just like previous iPhone generations. The iPhone 4 still stands out as being different in its behavior.
Conclusion: Apple chose form over function.
In other news: Google is losing its Mojo. lost $58 Billion in stock value in 6 months.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/07/mark...buzz/index.htm
heres another quote from the article.
Unfortunately for Google, beating the stuffing out of Yahoo and Microsoft in search is now considered a fait accompli. But Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), with its iPhone and iPad, has become more of a competitor to Google as of late. And Google's growth, while impressive, is pedestrian when compared to Apple.
SWEET
Oh, I know you're aware.
Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.
Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.
For all it's benefits, the unexpected dropped calls, missed calls and missed communications are what's at issue. As a crude analogy, Major League Baseball doesn't condone drug use even if players are setting records. Neither should Apple let stand a flawed design just because it's better most of the time.
Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.
On the contrary, the "wrong way" is natural for most people and is the manner of holding the iPhone 4 that Apple demonstrates in its own promotional videos. An unnatural cupping of the base of previous iPhones would cause reception problems. The iPhone 4 issue is far different, as it merely requires a light touch at the bottom left to completely kill reception in low-signal areas where other phones (previous generation iPhones) are able to make a call and are not so sensitive to normal handling.
I don't see how it's possible that the "wrong" way is the way for as you say "most people". It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem. I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.
But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.
We have seen reception drop isn't the problem. It's reception killed (hence death grip). I know of no other manufacturer who has this issue with their phones, nor has any previous model iPhone had this issue. It is no coincidence the iPhone 4 is the only one with an antenna exposed as part of the frame where the user is likely to touch it.
As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well. Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception. So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.
As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.
Some people, you for example, seem to be delighted to point it out.
Apple is only paying a 23% tax rate? How can that be when the corporate rate is 36%? They are obviously not paying their fair share. The government is losing billions of dollars of revenue due to some tricky accounting!
Oh please! Learn something about corporate taxes, and then come back.
Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...
It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.
That's the worst regressive tax there is. I hope we never have it.
Then can we call it Apple's not taking direct aim at the real issue?
The number of bars displayed is indeed software. Apple was "stunned". Gosh, oh, golly. The press repeats the story and naively assumes this will address the antenna design problem. From my own observations and the number of similar observations posted on the 'net, I'm quite certain it won't.
Right, the bars displayed is all about software. I agree with that. The real problem, though, is complete loss of reception when a perfectly good (even if low) signal is available.
Oh, please. When was the last time you saw a cell phone with retractable antenna? We're talking about an issue with the iPhone 4 as compared to all other cell phones manufactured in the past 3 years (to include the original iPhone).
But Apple said the bars issue (which you suggest is the real issue) goes back to the original iPhone and iPhone OS 1.0. And the 3G and 3GS are not and never were so "touchy" as the iPhone 4.
How does the metal being exposed not have anything to do with it? It's unique to the iPhone 4 design, that your body can get so close to the antenna.
Ah, but not so easily and naturally as with the iPhone 4.
Actually, all I'm interested in is having Apple satisfy its customers and make sure they know what the real issue is so that they're not unwittingly bitten by it.
So that you can understand the reception issue, and why Apple is changing the way the signal is shown, read this part of the long iPhone 4 review at AnandTech. If you want to read the entire review, at the bottom of the page is a table of contents, so you can go back and forth as you please.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/3794/t...one-4-review/2
Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.
Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.
I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.
I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.
Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.
A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.
The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.
I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.
Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.
My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.
It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem.
There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?
Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.
I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.
But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.
Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.
As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well.
Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception.
No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.
So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.
As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.
Some people, you for example, seem to be delighted to point it out.
No, I'm disappointed that I have to bring up the issue, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the peace of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.
It would be all too easy to let this slide, now that it's been several days since I bought a bumper, but it's just not right.
I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amPG52DVQuk
Someone posted a video about the N97 dropping in signal quality ... here another one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amPG52DVQuk
Interesting! (The device in the video is an E71, not N97). A quick google search reveals comments from 2008, to the effect that the E71 is the worst Nokia yet.
http://nds1.nokia.com/phones/files/g...71-1_UG_en.pdf
"Your device may have internal and external antennas. Avoid touching the antenna area unnecessarily while the antenna is transmitting or receiving. Contact with antennas affects the communication quality and may cause a higher power level during operation and may reduce the battery life."
Apple should have known better than to use an external antenna.
I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.
I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.
Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.
A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.
The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.
I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.
Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.
Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.
But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
It's not irrational, unless you're talking about the big drop rather than the current price. I was fortunately able to buy more at about 80. Have you looked at the P/E? It's 20. That's not high at all for a growth company. Cisco's is a bit over 19. Even though RIMM's stock is way down from earlier this year, the P/E is still over 23. Google's is also way down, but the P/E is over 20 as well. Look at ARM's P/E, it's over 59!
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.
I'm not trying to say that you aren't seeing the problem. So, are you saying that you dropped a call, or couldn't make one when you tried that/ Or did you just do it to see what happened to the bars?
There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?
Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.
First of all, from what I'm reading, its said that left handed people that are mostly having the problem. That means the phone would usually be in the right hand. So if it's a problem with the phone in the left hand, then it wouldn't be left handed people. Though, i'm left handed, but bat righty. So we can't always go by that.
But, you're trying to say that this problem happens all the time for these people, and that's not true at all. All reliable reports, not posters, and pardon me, but posters are more likely to exaggerate the problem for effect, have said that the actual problem, that of losing signal, not losing bars, only happens in weak signal areas.
Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.
No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.
Well, you're saying that, but I haven't seen that written anywhere. The reviews pretty much all say that the iPhone 4 reception is much better than the older phones, except where signal strength is low, and then, it's just as bad.
Look, if the 4 is getting calls, and not dropping them where the older phones were, that's much better, isn't it? And if it then drops calls when holding this way, but not when using a case that's really no worse than before, and actually better, where everyone was complaining about AT&T as being the problem. Possibly, it's both? But you have to make a valid test, which you're not doing. You need several phones at the same place, at the same time, as we see the websites doing this. What you're doing is just guessing what it would be like with other phones, but you don't really know for sure. You can't say that my old phone didn't do this or that. You need the old phone there, doing this or that.
It's the comparison of the much better receptivity of the new phone when compared to the old phone that makes the magnitude seem worse. It was EXPECTED that the phones before would lose calls, and not be able to make calls in weak signal areas, which, by the way, can be anywhere. I get no signal, nor does anyone else, in the Friday's near my house when my friends and I go there for lunch.
No, I'm disappointed that I have to point it out, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the piece of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.
I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.
I always use cases on my phones, if there are cases for them, and so do many people I know, if not most. There's a pretty big industry making iPhone cases.
But, it just seems to me that those who are making a really big deal about this are only doing so because otherwise, the phone works so well. With the older models, we thought that at any time, we would lose a call, or not be able to make one, but not so with this, which performs so much better. Then, to find that under certain circumstances, the problem is there again, well, uh oh, what's going on? That seems so much worse, but it isn't. It's just that expectations are so much higher.
I wish that this problem wasn't there at all, but if you don't like the phone, then take it back. That's what people do with products that don't meet their expectations. I see no problem here. It's what you would do with any other phone you bought. Why is this different?
I'm pretty objective. You should read the posts of people who complain when I argue that Apple is screwing up.
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
Well, something will happen when SJ dies.
Did you read the former Apple employee accounts of what it's like working at Apple? If SJ wants it, it gets done now; otherwise things can take a long time to get done. What happens when SJ isn't around to want anything anymore?
Marvelous.
Now, how does Apple intend to appease iPhone 4 customers over the death grip issue? (The "stunning" bars issue is entirely separate). A free bumper or credit for a previously purchased bumper seems reasonable to me.
I didn't know we were talking about iPhone 4 here, but so be it. Just curious, I think I recall you saying in a previous post you were going to pass on this phone for awhile .... have you given in yet ... or are you still waiting?
Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.
Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.
But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
I just want to say first, that unless you're on the West coast, you're as mad as we are for being up so late! At least I'm retired. We need you to be sharp in the morning.
We've seen Apple's P/E's as high as the mid fourties, as I remember. I don't get concerned until it's in the mid 30's. then I think it could see a big pullback, as it's got a ways to fall, as that high a P/E can't be supported.
But, if Apple keeps running the net higher as it seems to be doing, then a higher price is indicated.
If it does hit $63.5 billion or so, as you believe, it could hit $75 to $80 fiscal 2011. As long as margins aren't eroded by costs in manufacturing; I see Foxcon convinced Apple to allow them to move at least some production away, then margins will be around 38 to 41. With that growth in sales, we'll see a corresponding increase in net, and that leads to...
If the market double dips, as some are saying, everything will be backed up another 9 months to a year in stock pricing, and sales will stutter as it did in later 2008 and early 2009.
Do you think that the estimate of 7.5 million phone sales this quarter because of lack of product in the channel is realistic? Most everyone is thinking this could be a record quarter, except Huberty and a couple others.
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.
Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.
After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?
Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?
A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?
Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.
Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?
Andy, any ideas here?
Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.
/agreed. Its frustrating. I've had to deal with this for years. Apple is really an easy company to analyze, and its really sad that the market simply can't get things right. Look at how quickly the financial media can turn against Apple. During the financial crisis, I saw countless of reports on CNBC that were just patently incorrect.
The whole damn market couldn't even come to grips with non-GAAP accounting measures and ended up valuating Apple based on its GAAP earnings. This lead to a valuation that was much lower than almost all other tech stocks. See this article:
http://bullcross.blogspot.com/2008/1...lued-than.html
That was literally the most frustrating issue I had to deal with. It felt like a bunch of little children ran the entire stock market, and I was left having to try and defend Apple against the most insane bullshit reporting imaginable. The decision by Apple to use the subscription method of accounting was a huge contributing factor to its $80 stock price during the crisis.
Before anyone suggests otherwise, please note that I've debated this issue thoroughly at the time. Apple could have chosen a different system even under GAAP accounting. But chose not to due to offering free software upgrades to the iPhone. You can see a summary of the issues here:
http://bullcross.blogspot.com/2009/0...anagement.html
At least we've now entered a time where the market at least recognizes Apple as one the best stocks in the market. Even if it is still undervalued.
But yea. I agree with your comment here.