Welcome to the board, and, as a relative newbie myself, I agree with your observations. I try to stay out of the trash-talking, and filter out that stuff to get to the issues that interest me, and, on balance, it is a great source of Apple information (and other stuff, vis a vis tech issues).
Just ignore the rabid fanboys and trolls, and you will enjoy the experience. Welcome again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash_beezy
Damn speaking of new 72+ post in under 2 months?
Why do you assume the worst based on number of posts. If you take the time to examine his posts, you will find a lot of them were related to his inability to resolve iP4 antenna issues.
Bagman's posts were, mostly, well reasoned and well presented. I do think he felt saddened and frustrated, by being called names, when he was trying to resolve an issue in a very logical and thorough (adult) way.
I doubt if Jobs exaggerated the 230,000 iOS activations/day since he otherwise will be in deep trouble with SEC . This means Apple is on track to selling well over 20 million iOS devices this quarter. No matter how you divide this number among iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches; it becomes obvious that they are well underway to having another blockbuster quarter. How come no one is talking about this? Have I made a wrong assumption here?
Don't forget iPod Touch with built in FaceTime. With Cisco VPN built right in iPod Touches are going to make a very attractive video device for organizations, especially if we start seeing TVs with built in iPod Docks and Mics.
I know more than one company chomping at the bit for iPads with FaceTIme. If Apple does it right and releases FaceTime to iChat they could have a serious edge in video conferencing, most existing systems are ridiculously expensive.
I doubt if Jobs exaggerated the 230,000 iOS activations/day since he otherwise will be in deep trouble with SEC . This means Apple is on track to selling well over 20 million iOS devices this quarter. No matter how you divide this number among iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches; it becomes obvious that they are well underway to having another blockbuster quarter. How come no one is talking about this? Have I made a wrong assumption here?
Yes, your assumption is probably too conservative. Jobs specifically used the word "activations" rather than "sales" or "shipped". But neither iPod Touches nor iPad WiFi's get "activated", since they have no 3G component.
That means that the 230,000 per day only includes iPhones and iPad 3G's. That means Apple is on track to sell over 20 million iOS devices not including iPod Touches and iPod Wifi.
Mindblowing.
Or perhaps I am over-interpreting the word "activations". Even still, your 20 million conclusion for all iOS devices would be very grand.
At 200,000 activations a day, that's 18 million devices a quarter. I don't think Android is selling that many. Blackberry and iPhones are near the 10 million mark. I think IDC published numbers that showed that the market share for devices other than Blackberry, iPhone, and Nokia was 25%. Assuming they were all Android, that would give them approximately 12-13 million units, still less than 18.
Here's another one. iPhone sales are close to Android. Even if Android has more smartphone share, that means Android should have similar activation numbers to the iPhone. Of 230,000 iOS devices, I estimate only 100,000 are iPhones (making about 9 million a quarter, an accurate figure). How can Android be selling twice the # of smartphones as iPhone does and not directly benefit Motorola and HTC? Wouldn't we all notice it by now?
(0) iPod Touches and iPad WiFis don't get activated,
(1) I think your 9 million per quarter of iPhones is way too low,
(2) Android phones are very low margin, and
(3) Actually Motorola and HTC are indeed doing very well with their Android units. Noticeably so.
You joined in 2009. How long has AppleInsider existed?
Ah, I meant this specific thread - was fully expecting a statistics war quickly descending into an "Android sucks because............" vs. "iOS sucks because............." battle.
You've been here longer than me - you've seen it before!
Apple got their "Activations per day" number from a full years worth of sales...
How do you know this? I watched the streaming event, and the distinct impression I got was that the 230,000 activations per day was a rough instantaneous activation rate, not a yearly average.
I think its naive to call it evil, its business. They all do what is in their own best interests. Ultimately the market decides who survives and who does not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando
They are all evil. Apple, Google, Microsoft, ... all evil. Apple just does it in a much more stylish way than the competition.
Yeah - got started here when I was one of the first i4 owners, with the antenna issues, so had to write a bunch to get people to recognize that I wasn't a troll or fanboy, but a concerned consumer. That took a lot of posts to resolve - now wish they would resolve the antenna issue, which I suppose will be incorporated (in silence, apparently) in upcoming versions of the i4.
(just coat the d**m thing already, weave it into the manufacturing process, and folks will get the idea soon enough). Hey, maybe even Consumer Reports will give it their blessing.
More people buy iPhones in a day than read Consumer Reports in a month.
Shows you how much CR's blessing mattered in THIS particular case.
Apple is a fine one to talk trash about anyone else's numbers. I would still like to see the return numbers on iPhones with antenna issues. Not the Apple Care complaint figures he quoted at the press conference. ATT is bad enough, but with that ridiculous external antenna I can't believe the iPhone sold as many units as Apple claims if people are dropping calls all over the country.
As far as the iPad is concerned, same thing. I would love to see the return figures from people who spent five hundred or more bucks for this stupid thing and sat down on the couch and tried to visit their favorite websites only to find holes where flash content would usually be. Oh, I have to get up and go to my iMac to visit this or that site. Or it doesn't display correctly using Safari.
Yeah, I know. The antenna issue was made up by bloggers and if websites use flash then they are stupid and shouldn't be visited. Apple rules the internet.
Whatever you say Steve, thy will be done.
Keep beating that dead horse Blackintosh. I'm sure one day it'll stand up and run the Kentucky Derby for you.
There are people who "activate" their phone 100 times with different ROMs. Since activation isn't tied to serial (as it only counts phones with Google services) I have a hard time believing Google in this case.
It is quite clear how Apple would be able to track unique activations being the hardware manufacturer, software vendor, and activator.
I think it is really up to Google to prove their case here.
It is irrelevant how many activations happened for either company. By making that statement Jobs just changed the way iOS devices are compared against Android. Before that statement all the pundits would compare Android devices against iPhones, and the debate was about if the other iOS devices should be included or not, or if (in the future) only Android phones should be included.
Now, that is out of the question, all iOS devices are compared against all Android devices. The comparison is operative system to operative system (keep an eye on the new iPod nano, that is also an iOS device! Should it be included?)
Jobs changed the rules of the game and the media didn't bat an eye. They went on challenging the number, and forgot their arms waving about how to count iOS devices... Next time they want to compare they will have to include all iOS devices because they bit the bite, and tacitly agreed that the comparison iOS to Android is the way to do it. The debate has moved as to how we count them, not what we count.
Such hyperventilation and such weird attributions!
All he is doing is what any smart CEO should do vis-a-vis his firm and industry: shape the conversation to move to a set of metrics that work in your favor and make you look good. (In this case, 'iOS' has replaced the actual device, and 'new activation' has replaced 'all activations.')
To some extent he is succeeding, since a company like Google feels compelled to respond with the same statistic; right now, their OS has only one type of device, namely the smartphone, so that's all he can talk about. When the GooglePad or GooglePod (or whatever) is introduced, I'll bet you that Schmidt will start throwing around similar numbers. Right now, Apple is the only company that can claim a relevant share in all the main categories of handheld (PMPs, smartphones, and tablets). Others will no doubt get there.
SJ is simply trying to change the terms of the debate. Time will tell - and the market will decide - whether that will succeed or a fail.
Hats off to him, in my view.
Exactly. Great comment. SJ isn't lying or misrepresenting the numbers, he is only emphasizing metrics which look the most impressive. Which metrics or stats are most important or exactly how they are calculated, what's included/excluded is mostly subjective. All companies do this, as well as individuals. They publicize surveys or studies where they perform best.
What company or CEO gets up and says "we suck" ? Our products are second-ran junk? I don't know of any...Every time I hear a CEO or company speak about it's products, they are always described as industry leading, best in class... etc etc.
Google has never provided cumulative android device sales nor figures for quarterly unit sales. It doesn't have too since it doesn't make the hardware and doesn't sell the OS. Google has only mentioned "activations" which the exact definition has been unclear. Apple provides unit sales every qtr and routinely announces cumulative iOS device sales. However, Apple has never thrown out "activation" numbers per day.
Daily run rate figures are problematic. How long a time period is the calculation based? last week? last 30, 90 days?
unit sales/activations are volatile day to day, week to week. Hence, peaks and valleys. Apple could have said it was activating 566K/day using 3 days of iPhone 4 sales. (it didn't) Anti-Apple bloggers used the 1.3 million units over the next couple weeks when supply evaporated= 65K (SJ announced 3M). Using both periods would be better, since it captures peak and valley. In short, the look-back period should be long enough to smooth volatility, however the longer the time period, the more stale the data become. That's why I find daily run-rate metrics to be meaningless and misleading.
Yes, your assumption is probably too conservative. Jobs specifically used the word "activations" rather than "sales" or "shipped". But neither iPod Touches nor iPad WiFi's get "activated", since they have no 3G component.
That means that the 230,000 per day only includes iPhones and iPad 3G's. That means Apple is on track to sell over 20 million iOS devices not including iPod Touches and iPod Wifi.
Mindblowing.
Or perhaps I am over-interpreting the word "activations". Even still, your 20 million conclusion for all iOS devices would be very grand.
Thompson
I am not a 100% sure, but pretty sure, that's not correct. iPod touch and iPad WiFi do count in activations. They get activated thru iTunes to Apple when plugged into a computer. The device ID is sent to Apple.
For instance, all iPads require activation before it can be used, and activation requires setting up a user Apple ID. Which is also required to download apps.
I am pretty sure the same applies to iPod touch. For certain, Apple sees the device ID when plugged in to iTunes desktop to enable use
At 200,000 activations a day, that's 18 million devices a quarter. I don't think Android is selling that many. Blackberry and iPhones are near the 10 million mark. I think IDC published numbers that showed that the market share for devices other than Blackberry, iPhone, and Nokia was 25%. Assuming they were all Android, that would give them approximately 12-13 million units, still less than 18.
Here's another one. iPhone sales are close to Android. Even if Android has more smartphone share, that means Android should have similar activation numbers to the iPhone. Of 230,000 iOS devices, I estimate only 100,000 are iPhones (making about 9 million a quarter, an accurate figure). How can Android be selling twice the # of smartphones as iPhone does and not directly benefit Motorola and HTC? Wouldn't we all notice it by now?
Thank you!
200,000 x 365 = 73 million+ devices annually - neither Android or iOS devices with 3G service are running at this rate annually yet, anyway. Probably not a sustainable number, as both companies picked their snapshot window for this stat.
Comments
Welcome to the board, and, as a relative newbie myself, I agree with your observations. I try to stay out of the trash-talking, and filter out that stuff to get to the issues that interest me, and, on balance, it is a great source of Apple information (and other stuff, vis a vis tech issues).
Just ignore the rabid fanboys and trolls, and you will enjoy the experience. Welcome again.
Damn speaking of new 72+ post in under 2 months?
Why do you assume the worst based on number of posts. If you take the time to examine his posts, you will find a lot of them were related to his inability to resolve iP4 antenna issues.
Bagman's posts were, mostly, well reasoned and well presented. I do think he felt saddened and frustrated, by being called names, when he was trying to resolve an issue in a very logical and thorough (adult) way.
.
I doubt if Jobs exaggerated the 230,000 iOS activations/day since he otherwise will be in deep trouble with SEC . This means Apple is on track to selling well over 20 million iOS devices this quarter. No matter how you divide this number among iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches; it becomes obvious that they are well underway to having another blockbuster quarter. How come no one is talking about this? Have I made a wrong assumption here?
Don't forget iPod Touch with built in FaceTime. With Cisco VPN built right in iPod Touches are going to make a very attractive video device for organizations, especially if we start seeing TVs with built in iPod Docks and Mics.
I know more than one company chomping at the bit for iPads with FaceTIme. If Apple does it right and releases FaceTime to iChat they could have a serious edge in video conferencing, most existing systems are ridiculously expensive.
I don't trust Google, or believe anything they say. Any company that has to tell you how not evil it is....
They are all evil. Apple, Google, Microsoft, ... all evil. Apple just does it in a much more stylish way than the competition.
I doubt if Jobs exaggerated the 230,000 iOS activations/day since he otherwise will be in deep trouble with SEC . This means Apple is on track to selling well over 20 million iOS devices this quarter. No matter how you divide this number among iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches; it becomes obvious that they are well underway to having another blockbuster quarter. How come no one is talking about this? Have I made a wrong assumption here?
Yes, your assumption is probably too conservative. Jobs specifically used the word "activations" rather than "sales" or "shipped". But neither iPod Touches nor iPad WiFi's get "activated", since they have no 3G component.
That means that the 230,000 per day only includes iPhones and iPad 3G's. That means Apple is on track to sell over 20 million iOS devices not including iPod Touches and iPod Wifi.
Mindblowing.
Or perhaps I am over-interpreting the word "activations". Even still, your 20 million conclusion for all iOS devices would be very grand.
Thompson
At 200,000 activations a day, that's 18 million devices a quarter. I don't think Android is selling that many. Blackberry and iPhones are near the 10 million mark. I think IDC published numbers that showed that the market share for devices other than Blackberry, iPhone, and Nokia was 25%. Assuming they were all Android, that would give them approximately 12-13 million units, still less than 18.
Here's another one. iPhone sales are close to Android. Even if Android has more smartphone share, that means Android should have similar activation numbers to the iPhone. Of 230,000 iOS devices, I estimate only 100,000 are iPhones (making about 9 million a quarter, an accurate figure). How can Android be selling twice the # of smartphones as iPhone does and not directly benefit Motorola and HTC? Wouldn't we all notice it by now?
(0) iPod Touches and iPad WiFis don't get activated,
(1) I think your 9 million per quarter of iPhones is way too low,
(2) Android phones are very low margin, and
(3) Actually Motorola and HTC are indeed doing very well with their Android units. Noticeably so.
Thompson
You joined in 2009. How long has AppleInsider existed?
Ah, I meant this specific thread - was fully expecting a statistics war quickly descending into an "Android sucks because............" vs. "iOS sucks because............." battle.
You've been here longer than me - you've seen it before!
Apple got their "Activations per day" number from a full years worth of sales...
How do you know this? I watched the streaming event, and the distinct impression I got was that the 230,000 activations per day was a rough instantaneous activation rate, not a yearly average.
Thompson
IE owned 98% of the browser market and Netscape was the walking dead.
Verizon turned down the iPhone. AT&T agreed to revolutionize the phone market.
Well, at the time I had selected Netscape and Verizon so I disagreed with both of his assertions.
They are all evil. Apple, Google, Microsoft, ... all evil. Apple just does it in a much more stylish way than the competition.
Yeah - got started here when I was one of the first i4 owners, with the antenna issues, so had to write a bunch to get people to recognize that I wasn't a troll or fanboy, but a concerned consumer. That took a lot of posts to resolve - now wish they would resolve the antenna issue, which I suppose will be incorporated (in silence, apparently) in upcoming versions of the i4.
(just coat the d**m thing already, weave it into the manufacturing process, and folks will get the idea soon enough). Hey, maybe even Consumer Reports will give it their blessing.
More people buy iPhones in a day than read Consumer Reports in a month.
Shows you how much CR's blessing mattered in THIS particular case.
Thompson
Tells the truth = Ordinary Worker
Tells incomplete truth = CEO
Tells complete lies = Politician
Tells the inconvenient truth = environmentalist
Tells the inconvenient truth = environmentalist
Oh God, if ever anyone had lit the blue touchpaper.......................
Apple is a fine one to talk trash about anyone else's numbers. I would still like to see the return numbers on iPhones with antenna issues. Not the Apple Care complaint figures he quoted at the press conference. ATT is bad enough, but with that ridiculous external antenna I can't believe the iPhone sold as many units as Apple claims if people are dropping calls all over the country.
As far as the iPad is concerned, same thing. I would love to see the return figures from people who spent five hundred or more bucks for this stupid thing and sat down on the couch and tried to visit their favorite websites only to find holes where flash content would usually be. Oh, I have to get up and go to my iMac to visit this or that site. Or it doesn't display correctly using Safari.
Yeah, I know. The antenna issue was made up by bloggers and if websites use flash then they are stupid and shouldn't be visited. Apple rules the internet.
Whatever you say Steve, thy will be done.
Keep beating that dead horse Blackintosh. I'm sure one day it'll stand up and run the Kentucky Derby for you.
How does google track "new" activations?
There are people who "activate" their phone 100 times with different ROMs. Since activation isn't tied to serial (as it only counts phones with Google services) I have a hard time believing Google in this case.
It is quite clear how Apple would be able to track unique activations being the hardware manufacturer, software vendor, and activator.
I think it is really up to Google to prove their case here.
Oh God, if ever anyone had lit the blue touchpaper.......................
Oooooo, a shiny red button.
I wonder what happens if I pu.....
Now, that is out of the question, all iOS devices are compared against all Android devices. The comparison is operative system to operative system (keep an eye on the new iPod nano, that is also an iOS device! Should it be included?)
Jobs changed the rules of the game and the media didn't bat an eye. They went on challenging the number, and forgot their arms waving about how to count iOS devices... Next time they want to compare they will have to include all iOS devices because they bit the bite, and tacitly agreed that the comparison iOS to Android is the way to do it. The debate has moved as to how we count them, not what we count.
Such hyperventilation and such weird attributions!
All he is doing is what any smart CEO should do vis-a-vis his firm and industry: shape the conversation to move to a set of metrics that work in your favor and make you look good. (In this case, 'iOS' has replaced the actual device, and 'new activation' has replaced 'all activations.')
To some extent he is succeeding, since a company like Google feels compelled to respond with the same statistic; right now, their OS has only one type of device, namely the smartphone, so that's all he can talk about. When the GooglePad or GooglePod (or whatever) is introduced, I'll bet you that Schmidt will start throwing around similar numbers. Right now, Apple is the only company that can claim a relevant share in all the main categories of handheld (PMPs, smartphones, and tablets). Others will no doubt get there.
SJ is simply trying to change the terms of the debate. Time will tell - and the market will decide - whether that will succeed or a fail.
Hats off to him, in my view.
Exactly. Great comment. SJ isn't lying or misrepresenting the numbers, he is only emphasizing metrics which look the most impressive. Which metrics or stats are most important or exactly how they are calculated, what's included/excluded is mostly subjective. All companies do this, as well as individuals. They publicize surveys or studies where they perform best.
What company or CEO gets up and says "we suck" ? Our products are second-ran junk? I don't know of any...Every time I hear a CEO or company speak about it's products, they are always described as industry leading, best in class... etc etc.
Google has never provided cumulative android device sales nor figures for quarterly unit sales. It doesn't have too since it doesn't make the hardware and doesn't sell the OS. Google has only mentioned "activations" which the exact definition has been unclear. Apple provides unit sales every qtr and routinely announces cumulative iOS device sales. However, Apple has never thrown out "activation" numbers per day.
Daily run rate figures are problematic. How long a time period is the calculation based? last week? last 30, 90 days?
unit sales/activations are volatile day to day, week to week. Hence, peaks and valleys. Apple could have said it was activating 566K/day using 3 days of iPhone 4 sales. (it didn't) Anti-Apple bloggers used the 1.3 million units over the next couple weeks when supply evaporated= 65K (SJ announced 3M). Using both periods would be better, since it captures peak and valley. In short, the look-back period should be long enough to smooth volatility, however the longer the time period, the more stale the data become. That's why I find daily run-rate metrics to be meaningless and misleading.
Yes, your assumption is probably too conservative. Jobs specifically used the word "activations" rather than "sales" or "shipped". But neither iPod Touches nor iPad WiFi's get "activated", since they have no 3G component.
That means that the 230,000 per day only includes iPhones and iPad 3G's. That means Apple is on track to sell over 20 million iOS devices not including iPod Touches and iPod Wifi.
Mindblowing.
Or perhaps I am over-interpreting the word "activations". Even still, your 20 million conclusion for all iOS devices would be very grand.
Thompson
I am not a 100% sure, but pretty sure, that's not correct. iPod touch and iPad WiFi do count in activations. They get activated thru iTunes to Apple when plugged into a computer. The device ID is sent to Apple.
For instance, all iPads require activation before it can be used, and activation requires setting up a user Apple ID. Which is also required to download apps.
I am pretty sure the same applies to iPod touch. For certain, Apple sees the device ID when plugged in to iTunes desktop to enable use
At 200,000 activations a day, that's 18 million devices a quarter. I don't think Android is selling that many. Blackberry and iPhones are near the 10 million mark. I think IDC published numbers that showed that the market share for devices other than Blackberry, iPhone, and Nokia was 25%. Assuming they were all Android, that would give them approximately 12-13 million units, still less than 18.
Here's another one. iPhone sales are close to Android. Even if Android has more smartphone share, that means Android should have similar activation numbers to the iPhone. Of 230,000 iOS devices, I estimate only 100,000 are iPhones (making about 9 million a quarter, an accurate figure). How can Android be selling twice the # of smartphones as iPhone does and not directly benefit Motorola and HTC? Wouldn't we all notice it by now?
Thank you!
200,000 x 365 = 73 million+ devices annually - neither Android or iOS devices with 3G service are running at this rate annually yet, anyway. Probably not a sustainable number, as both companies picked their snapshot window for this stat.