I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?
I suspect we'll see a hybrid of OS X and iOS -- with elements migrating between the two.
There some things that need to be resolved to make the UEX consistent:
1) allow separation of position/action on Touch UI, similar to point/click with a mouse
-- this is especially important when the touch screen is separate from the display screen, e.g. AppleTV.
2) allow sharing/movement/separation across multiple devices
-- drag and drop between your Mac and your iPad
-- game on ATV, game controls (player'ls hand) on iPad/iPhone
-- movie index/drill-down/selection for ATV on iPad
-- search/surf/kb entry on iPad, with results displayed on iPad and ATV.
3) seemless remote desktop between devices (both directions)
4) universal apps/widgets, and their data, across devices
5) share peripherals across devices (wired and wireless)
-- why shouldn't you be able to use an iPad as a Mac tablet input device?
-- why can't a Mac screen be used as an auxilliary screen for an iPad?
-- why can't I use my [iPhone] camera on my iPad?
-- why can''t I use the virtual kb on my iPad in conjucntion with a BT barcode scanner?
6) when we can't adjust the window size, we must have an option to refolw the content when zooming
7) exploit/enhance virtual kb
I separated the last, because it may be the most important as it involves human adaption and attitude as well as technology.
Consider how the typewriter kb has evolved over the last 160 years:
-- originally, you had to press a key hard and fast enough for it to travel several inches and mechanically lift a metal typebar to strike the ribbon with enough force to "print" an image of a character on the paper.
-- over the years, this evolved, to require less travel and force
-- with the advent of the electric typewriter, the travel and force were provided by the machine, instead of the fingers. *
-- even computer kbs of a few years ago, still required significant movement and pressure (Apple's Krumb Katcher Keyboard)
-- with today's kbs it takes less pressure to press the key, but more muscle tension to hover over the keys
* When IBM released the Selectric typewriter in the 1960s, a story circulated that full-figured typists made more errors than others...
The point of all this is typing speeds have increased as the keyboard has been improved and we have adapted to it!
I believe that we are beginning a new stage in the evolution of the kb: the virtual kb.
It's already happening! If we take the proper attitude and adapt, we can exploit this advancement!
Those of us who insist that we need a "proper keyboard" to be productive would be wise to remember the "proper keyboards" of 10, or even 5, years ago.
Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
How many netbooks are there available with 10 hours of battery life? How many weigh significantly less than two pounds? How many provide an interface that is perfect for browsing? How many allow for a gaming interface that is half as much fun as what the iPad offers? Inexpensive quality games abound and are incredibly easy to acquire and install. As an e-reader, the iPad makes sense. Netbooks? Not so much.
The netbook is just a shunken laptop and apart from the convenience of carrying around a smaller, ligher laptop, does absolutely everything worse than a regular laptop.
The iPad is better suited to certain activities and if those activities are what you need a product to do, it's a far better option than a netbook.
Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
I predict the death of the desktop.
I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.
I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.
At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.
If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.
I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.
A senior Adobe product executive in a reseller conference many years ago in NYC made a singular point, in a couple of different ways:
"Kill your own children"
"Figure out what business can hurt you, and become those businesses first"
Not sue if Adobe themselves is following this advice all the time, but it is an elegant and effective way to think, and Apple I think has known this for a long time.
... Business strategy ala Pogo: We have met the competition, and they are us!
Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
I seem to recall Apple had stating that QuickTime X?s engine was first redesigned for iPhone OS and then later brought to Snow Leopard, with a new UI of course.
Well, given that there is zero evidence to support your conjecture, I would say, not much at all.
Some number of people will give up traditional desktop/notebook computers (desktops) for tablets. Input devices for desktops may, over time, switch from physical keyboards/mice to a touch device that works as a virtual keyboard, trackpad, custom input device, but the separation of input and display on desktops will remain, as will the distinction between desktops and tablets.
All of these "conspiracy theories" regarding the demise of OS X, and traditional desktop operating systems generally, all depend on one particular assumption, applied in various directions. That assumption is that progress will cease in one area while it proceeds at a rapid rate in another. Progress will cease in desktop CPU development while development of tablet CPUs leaps ahead. Progress in desktop operating systems will cease while mobile operating system development advances at breakneck speed. Progress in desktop software will halt while tablet based software will gain the ability to do everything today's desktop software can. And so on, and so on.
Of course, all these assumptions are pretty ridiculous when they are exposed. Desktop hardware, operating systems and software will advance at the same or greater pace as their tablet counterparts. In 10 years, desktop systems and software will be as, or more, advanced beyond today's systems as today's systems are advanced beyond those of 10 years ago. Just as people do things today that weren't possible 10 years ago, in 10 years they will do things that aren't possible today. Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
What you say is largely true...
But, the focus is shifting.
In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).
The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.
I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.
I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.
At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.
If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.
I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.
People want simplicity and less clutter not a more complex mess of bits and pieces scattered around the house. Don't forget that the cost of storage is getting progressively lower which begs the question, why would you pay for a service to store your data when you can do it inexpensively in the privacy of your own home.
Don't underestimate the appeal of owning a fully functioning computer. Some of us like it that way.
You are correct in implying that big changes will happen eventually but I don't see the value of your vision. I doubt many consumers share your interest in a computer system model as you outline it. If consumers don't want it, certainly don't gain anything from it, it will not happen.
What you have to understand is that things that are going from iOS back to OS X are completely rewritten code. The concepts come from OS X because OS X was first. But the code being written for iOS is largely new.
Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).
The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.
.
I agree with you to some extent, although, I'm not willing to say it will be a majority, or in what time-frame this will happen. Some number will give up traditional desktops (at least at home) but, whether it will be a majority or not is unclear.
What you have to understand is that things that are going from iOS back to OS X are completely rewritten code. The concepts come from OS X because OS X was first. But the code being written for iOS is largely new.
Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.
Right, but there are new technologies being developed for OS X today (GCD, for example) that will eventually make their way to iOS. What's going on here is cross pollination, not the ascendancy of iOS over OS X.
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
I seem to recall Apple had stating that QuickTime X’s engine was first redesigned for iPhone OS and then later brought to Snow Leopard, with a new UI of course.
Yeah, the gene pool begins to get a little murky.
AIR, OS X Snow Leopard was delayed 6 months while the Apple OS team finalized the iPhone version of OS X.
Then there are the enhancements to XCode and InterfaceBuilder -- most of the enhancements are iOS related...
We are atarting to see some of the visual components (layouts, buttons, controls, etc.) migrate from iOS to the desktop/webtop -- mail is a good example.
I use the Final Cut Studio Suite, and there some areas of these "power" applications that scream out for the elegant simplicity of multitouch -- pinch/zoom/pan/flick a clip on the timeline; manipulate a camera path through the composited layers of 3D space; controlling particle emitters (rain, snow, fog, bubbles) with multiple touches at the same time.
The touch device is still an infant in diapers.... He will build upon all that came before.
... Now I have some disgruntled birds that need tending...
Comments
I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?
I suspect we'll see a hybrid of OS X and iOS -- with elements migrating between the two.
There some things that need to be resolved to make the UEX consistent:
1) allow separation of position/action on Touch UI, similar to point/click with a mouse
-- this is especially important when the touch screen is separate from the display screen, e.g. AppleTV.
2) allow sharing/movement/separation across multiple devices
-- drag and drop between your Mac and your iPad
-- game on ATV, game controls (player'ls hand) on iPad/iPhone
-- movie index/drill-down/selection for ATV on iPad
-- search/surf/kb entry on iPad, with results displayed on iPad and ATV.
3) seemless remote desktop between devices (both directions)
4) universal apps/widgets, and their data, across devices
5) share peripherals across devices (wired and wireless)
-- why shouldn't you be able to use an iPad as a Mac tablet input device?
-- why can't a Mac screen be used as an auxilliary screen for an iPad?
-- why can't I use my [iPhone] camera on my iPad?
-- why can''t I use the virtual kb on my iPad in conjucntion with a BT barcode scanner?
6) when we can't adjust the window size, we must have an option to refolw the content when zooming
7) exploit/enhance virtual kb
I separated the last, because it may be the most important as it involves human adaption and attitude as well as technology.
Consider how the typewriter kb has evolved over the last 160 years:
-- originally, you had to press a key hard and fast enough for it to travel several inches and mechanically lift a metal typebar to strike the ribbon with enough force to "print" an image of a character on the paper.
-- over the years, this evolved, to require less travel and force
-- with the advent of the electric typewriter, the travel and force were provided by the machine, instead of the fingers. *
-- even computer kbs of a few years ago, still required significant movement and pressure (Apple's Krumb Katcher Keyboard)
-- with today's kbs it takes less pressure to press the key, but more muscle tension to hover over the keys
* When IBM released the Selectric typewriter in the 1960s, a story circulated that full-figured typists made more errors than others...
The point of all this is typing speeds have increased as the keyboard has been improved and we have adapted to it!
I believe that we are beginning a new stage in the evolution of the kb: the virtual kb.
It's already happening! If we take the proper attitude and adapt, we can exploit this advancement!
Those of us who insist that we need a "proper keyboard" to be productive would be wise to remember the "proper keyboards" of 10, or even 5, years ago.
Sent from my iPad.
.
Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
How many netbooks are there available with 10 hours of battery life? How many weigh significantly less than two pounds? How many provide an interface that is perfect for browsing? How many allow for a gaming interface that is half as much fun as what the iPad offers? Inexpensive quality games abound and are incredibly easy to acquire and install. As an e-reader, the iPad makes sense. Netbooks? Not so much.
The netbook is just a shunken laptop and apart from the convenience of carrying around a smaller, ligher laptop, does absolutely everything worse than a regular laptop.
The iPad is better suited to certain activities and if those activities are what you need a product to do, it's a far better option than a netbook.
Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
I predict the death of the desktop.
I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.
I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.
At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.
If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.
I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.
A senior Adobe product executive in a reseller conference many years ago in NYC made a singular point, in a couple of different ways:
"Kill your own children"
"Figure out what business can hurt you, and become those businesses first"
Not sue if Adobe themselves is following this advice all the time, but it is an elegant and effective way to think, and Apple I think has known this for a long time.
... Business strategy ala Pogo: We have met the competition, and they are us!
.
I predict the death of the desktop.
Well, now I know I'm right. If you agreed with me, I'd have had to reexamine my entire viewpoint on this.
Which elements of iOS/CocoaTouch have made their way into OS X/Cocoa, vs. the other way around?
Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
I seem to recall Apple had stating that QuickTime X?s engine was first redesigned for iPhone OS and then later brought to Snow Leopard, with a new UI of course.
Well, given that there is zero evidence to support your conjecture, I would say, not much at all.
Some number of people will give up traditional desktop/notebook computers (desktops) for tablets. Input devices for desktops may, over time, switch from physical keyboards/mice to a touch device that works as a virtual keyboard, trackpad, custom input device, but the separation of input and display on desktops will remain, as will the distinction between desktops and tablets.
All of these "conspiracy theories" regarding the demise of OS X, and traditional desktop operating systems generally, all depend on one particular assumption, applied in various directions. That assumption is that progress will cease in one area while it proceeds at a rapid rate in another. Progress will cease in desktop CPU development while development of tablet CPUs leaps ahead. Progress in desktop operating systems will cease while mobile operating system development advances at breakneck speed. Progress in desktop software will halt while tablet based software will gain the ability to do everything today's desktop software can. And so on, and so on.
Of course, all these assumptions are pretty ridiculous when they are exposed. Desktop hardware, operating systems and software will advance at the same or greater pace as their tablet counterparts. In 10 years, desktop systems and software will be as, or more, advanced beyond today's systems as today's systems are advanced beyond those of 10 years ago. Just as people do things today that weren't possible 10 years ago, in 10 years they will do things that aren't possible today. Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
What you say is largely true...
But, the focus is shifting.
In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).
The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.
.
Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
I predict the death of the desktop.
I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.
I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.
At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.
If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.
I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.
People want simplicity and less clutter not a more complex mess of bits and pieces scattered around the house. Don't forget that the cost of storage is getting progressively lower which begs the question, why would you pay for a service to store your data when you can do it inexpensively in the privacy of your own home.
Don't underestimate the appeal of owning a fully functioning computer. Some of us like it that way.
You are correct in implying that big changes will happen eventually but I don't see the value of your vision. I doubt many consumers share your interest in a computer system model as you outline it. If consumers don't want it, certainly don't gain anything from it, it will not happen.
I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.
.
Money, meet rat hole.
Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
So do those of you who've been screaming for Apple to lower the low-end MacBook prices now understand why they don't do this?
Money, meet rat hole.
If this is true, then I can see Apple lowering the price of their MacBook sooner rather than later to increase overall profit of this machine.
What you say is largely true...
But, the focus is shifting.
In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).
The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.
.
I agree with you to some extent, although, I'm not willing to say it will be a majority, or in what time-frame this will happen. Some number will give up traditional desktops (at least at home) but, whether it will be a majority or not is unclear.
What you have to understand is that things that are going from iOS back to OS X are completely rewritten code. The concepts come from OS X because OS X was first. But the code being written for iOS is largely new.
Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.
Right, but there are new technologies being developed for OS X today (GCD, for example) that will eventually make their way to iOS. What's going on here is cross pollination, not the ascendancy of iOS over OS X.
It's also possible that people aren't buying the low-end MacBook because of underwhelming specifications, glossy screen, the white color, etc. etc.
That is heresy.
Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
I seem to recall Apple had stating that QuickTime X’s engine was first redesigned for iPhone OS and then later brought to Snow Leopard, with a new UI of course.
Yeah, the gene pool begins to get a little murky.
AIR, OS X Snow Leopard was delayed 6 months while the Apple OS team finalized the iPhone version of OS X.
Then there are the enhancements to XCode and InterfaceBuilder -- most of the enhancements are iOS related...
We are atarting to see some of the visual components (layouts, buttons, controls, etc.) migrate from iOS to the desktop/webtop -- mail is a good example.
I use the Final Cut Studio Suite, and there some areas of these "power" applications that scream out for the elegant simplicity of multitouch -- pinch/zoom/pan/flick a clip on the timeline; manipulate a camera path through the composited layers of 3D space; controlling particle emitters (rain, snow, fog, bubbles) with multiple touches at the same time.
The touch device is still an infant in diapers.... He will build upon all that came before.
... Now I have some disgruntled birds that need tending...
.