iPad, Apple's 'Mac of the masses,' predicted to sell 21M in 2011

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  • Reply 21 of 117
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.

    Just my 2 cents.



    I tend to agree with you on this but, as Pealeas points out, this is a market that rim cannot afford to lose. Apple has gained an entry into rim's playground, the enterprise, and if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?



    I'm sure rim recognizes that and will put all their effort into competing, as was demonstrated by their purchase of the software (company) that is doing the OS for the tablet. Whether they're sucessful or not remains to be seen.
  • Reply 22 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    I'm just going to take a moment, inhale deeply, enjoy the fresh air of this thread before you-know-what happens to it...





    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    aaahhhhhhhhhhh











    Now, down to buzinessss.



    I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.



    An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."



    And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."



    Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."



    Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.



    Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.



    By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.



    Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.



    Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.



    The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.



    I think your estimations are far more accurate then munster's. I am sure many families are going to have multiple iPads. After the initial "not sure what to do with this device but it looks nice" people are starting to realize how useful and handy the iPad really is. And still there is no real competition to be seen!
  • Reply 23 of 117
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lloeki View Post


    They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.



    It's a computer made by Apple .... what are you calling it, ... a Honda?
  • Reply 24 of 117
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by saarek View Post


    Well I love my iPad, but I also love my MacBook Pro, both fulfill a different need for me. As I commute to work which is around an hours train journey each way I find that my iPad serves as my book, newspaper, movie player, email system etc etc during the day.



    When home I tend to just use my iPhone for a quick internet session or turn to my MacBook for anything else.



    I'm sure there are many people like me who will continue to use the iPad as an intermdediate device.



    I am exactly the same and I also use a MacPro for real major jobs such as video. I can see the iPad replacing millions of PCs used only for web, games, photos and mail and I am sure Apple will extend the iPad's abilities over time to make the need for a 'parent' machine unnecessary for such people with simple needs.
  • Reply 25 of 117
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    I'm just going to take a moment, inhale deeply, enjoy the fresh air of this thread before you-know-what happens to it...





    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    aaahhhhhhhhhhh











    Now, down to buzinessss.



    I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.



    An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."



    And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."



    Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."



    Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.



    Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.



    By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.



    Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.



    Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.



    The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.



    I hope you are correct and I suspect you are! In which case what is your guestimate for AAPL?
  • Reply 26 of 117
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?



    Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesn?t play in.



    Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn?t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?



    I can see all the iPad wannabes simply fighting amongst themselves. OK the plan worked out well for the same concept in the IBM/Windows clone days but I seriously feel Apple are far enough ahead for the melee this time to be disastrous for the Android clone maker's profits.
  • Reply 27 of 117
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,702member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    With Apple's success in music players, phones, computers, and now slate computing devices I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch screens for input devices and making suggestions for cooking, shopping, sales on flatware and dishes etc.



    Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.



    You are surprised? I am surprised at how little you understand Apple and what drives the company, in that case. I can see a third party make a device, some software, an attachment... that will let an Apple device interface with whatever appliance you have in mind. But why would Apple would want to get into embedded computing? How dull.
  • Reply 28 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?



    Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesn?t play in.



    Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn?t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?



    I'm waiting to see how apps will work on each Android pad considering that it sounds as if each manufacturer will have to tinker with the engine to get apps to play nice (ie. scale) on their pad.



    Maybe all of the manufacturers will play nice and share code...
  • Reply 29 of 117
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch



    I think what we're watching here is the unfolding of two different business models. MSFT, led by Ballmer, who has all the attributes of an old time "salesman" ... a pitchman, for lack of a better name, who wants to, as most salesman dream of doing, sell something to everyone, usually without giving much thought to the bottom line or to tomorrow's "sales". The unfortunate thing is, that the windows customer base is so large .... it generates profits almost automatically and allows that model to happen and for management to become more easily satisfied, for now at least. By the time management wakes up and starts to choose their focus points more clearly, it may be difficult to change.



    Apple, otoh, has a plan in place that is slowly revealing itself to us, one step at a time. The amount of focus on Apple's part is becoming clearer everyday and is amazing to see.



    As much as I love to see more product being introduced by my favorite company, Apple, I find it even more interesting to watch both business plans unfold.
  • Reply 30 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.



    The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.



    Also, I think there's at least a 50% chance that Apple is going to bring out a second, smaller iPad model starting at $399 or $349 when they refresh the iPad in early 2011, which will make it much more difficult for new competitors to take market share from iPad.
  • Reply 31 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by paxman View Post


    You are surprised? I am surprised at how little you understand Apple and what drives the company, in that case. I can see a third party make a device, some software, an attachment... that will let an Apple device interface with whatever appliance you have in mind. But why would Apple would want to get into embedded computing? How dull.



    i am surprised that it took this long for someone to be insulting....
  • Reply 32 of 117
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Porchland View Post


    Also, I think there's at least a 50% chance that Apple is going to bring out a second, smaller iPad model starting at $399 or $349 when they refresh the iPad in early 2011, which will make it much more difficult for new competitors to take market share from iPad.



    IMHO it doesn't make a lot of sense to intrduce a model that will only serve to canniblize the current model at a time when they can't keep up with the current demand. It may happen at some point in the future ... but I would think that they would wait until they see some saturation point with the current model .... and that's not happening anytime soon.
  • Reply 33 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.



    Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post


    I think your estimations are far more accurate then munster's. I am sure many families are going to have multiple iPads. After the initial "not sure what to do with this device but it looks nice" people are starting to realize how useful and handy the iPad really is. And still there is no real competition to be seen!





    I've found these analyst estimates for iPad sales to be right on the mark... if you double them!



    .
  • Reply 34 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    IMHO it doesn't make a lot of sense to intrduce a model that will only serve to canniblize the current model at a time when they can't keep up with the current demand. It may happen at some point in the future ... but I would think that they would wait until they see some saturation point with the current model .... and that's not happening anytime soon.



    after using the small kindle yesterday i agree. no reason to do smaller one. i think they hit the right spot with 9.7

    shave off some weight and its almost perfect.
  • Reply 35 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I've found these analyst estimates for iPad sales to be right on the mark... if you double them!



    So you're saying that the analysts did exactly a half-assed job?
  • Reply 36 of 117
    Wow, there is so much wrong with this HP tablet. How many FAILs can you find?
    PS: I also found it funny that it is being filmed with an iPhone.
  • Reply 37 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Peleas View Post


    You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.



    They embarrassed themselves with the Storm and Storm II, how in the world are they going bring a decent tabby to market - even with QNIX driving it? I respect QNIX which has been around for a long time and is robust, but this is analogous to building a really good foundation and then pitching a tent on top of it. They aren't currently equipped to deliver a strong ecosystem like iOS or Android, or even erm, Windows7 for that matter. They aren't staffed to do app development, or support a large app-driven operation. Their focus is more heavily towards their infrastructure, and only do what they must to make sure the devices connect and deliver.
  • Reply 38 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Wow, there is so much wrong with this HP tablet. How many FAILs can you find?
    PS: I also found it funny that it is being filmed with an iPhone.



    Didn't HP decide not to release the Slate? The specs on it were awful when it tried to meet the iPad price point it was nothing more then a netbook without a keyboard. I thought the product was dead.
  • Reply 39 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    I tend to agree with you on this but, as Pealeas points out, this is a market that rim cannot afford to lose. Apple has gained an entry into rim's playground, the enterprise, and if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?



    I'm sure rim recognizes that and will put all their effort into competing, as was demonstrated by their purchase of the software (company) that is doing the OS for the tablet. Whether they're sucessful or not remains to be seen.



    Emphasis mine!



    Great points!



    While well taken, the following statement doesn't go far enough:



    "if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?"



    I believe it goes far beyond the "enterprise phone market". Let's call it the "enterprise productivity market".



    The iPads are inexpensive, flexible, require little training or support-- they are expensable and expendable. They will become as second-nature as a calculator, stapler, a paper tablet or even a box of kleenex.



    The iPad will become ubiquitous in the enterprise-- not as a replacement for the phone or the computer but as another tool that helps you be productive.



    Here's the best part: the iPad will be the same go-to "productivity" tool at work as it is at home!



    That's the battle to be won in the enterprise!





    .
  • Reply 40 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I can see all the iPad wannabes simply fighting amongst themselves. OK the plan worked out well for the same concept in the IBM/Windows clone days but I seriously feel Apple are far enough ahead for the melee this time to be disastrous for the Android clone maker's profits.



    Add to that the lead times to obtain critical parts supplies and to reserve critical production facilities-- even if you have a great product to offer, it won't matter if you can't bring it to market!



    .
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