iPad, Apple's 'Mac of the masses,' predicted to sell 21M in 2011

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Comments

  • Reply 81 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach;


    I think your estimations are far more accurate then munster's. I am sure many families are going to have multiple iPads. After the initial "not sure what to do with this device but it looks nice" people are starting to realize how useful and handy the iPad really is. And still there is no real competition to be seen!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips;


    I hope you are correct and I suspect you are! In which case what is your guestimate for AAPL?



    In terms of AAPL I am not so sure because the general stock market sentiment weighs on it. But I think $300 by the end of Jan 2011 should be a given, assuming no major market drops in general. There are two quarters to report which should be sequentially the best Apple has done, ie. Calendar Q3 and Calendar Q4 2010.



    At least $320 by middle of 2011 should then follow on naturally.



    In any case, as long as Steve and the current team are still around (touch wood), things are shaping up very nicely for 2011.
  • Reply 82 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum;


    I've found these analyst estimates for iPad sales to be right on the mark... if you double them!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism;


    So you're saying that the analysts did exactly a half-assed job?



  • Reply 83 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mikemikeb;


    Maybe it's bad marketing that's holding BlackBerry down. Let me explain in two different ways:



    1. I was listening to a radio show this morning, and the host discussed the McDonald's Happy Meal concept. Basically, McDonald's markets Happy Meals to kids, hoping they'll get their parents to take them to McDonald's. Once the kids enjoy what they get, then they get an emotional attachment to McDonald's. That generally makes kids loyal to McDonald's for life. There's a ton of market research that confirms this. Look around and you'll find it.



    2. I saw a post on AI about how kids love using BBM, and this post about why that is. Basically, BBM makes messaging others definitely easier, and possibly cheaper, than with other phones.



    So let's combine the two factors. I've been seeing a commercial that features BBM, but 1) they don't show exactly, feature-by-feature, what's so great with BBM, and 2) the commercial itself is marketed towards adults, on channels watched mostly by adults. Even the people in the commercials are older, and it's in a barbershop.



    Forget commercials with adults in barbershops, being placed on the Lifetime and USA Network. Instead, what if Blackberry films a bunch of high schoolers, like, 100 of them, being given Blackberries for a couple of months, and have them praising the benefits of the phone (and especially BBM)? Then, air the finished commercials on networks commonly watched by teenagers, like MTV and the Disney Channel? Plant the seed of BlackBerry into the text-messaging youth, not adults focused on apps. (Besides, once there's an appreciable user base of BlackBerry 6 phones, app developers will develop plenty of apps for the OS, anyway). Once you hook the youth into BBM, then they're hooked for life.



    Interesting points. I think we have a situation here whereby RIM culture is so built up on business and the style, ethics and drive of "the suits". Interestingly, the product has attracted a following on the strength of some of its features. The question is, can RIM stay relevant and update itself for both markets? I would suggest they create a sub-brand. Just like Poppy under Coach. That should be what they are focusing on, not trying to play catch-up with a tablet that may or may not have good business use until a year from now... Though I would like to see the Blackpad gain traction, there just aren't enough iPads to go around in global usage even through end of next year!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Landcruiser;


    So I read a lot about iPads replacing laptops and all, but I don't understand one aspect of that. I think my iPad is a great device and plan to get more (for the kids), but I'm still required to have a computer to sync it with through iTunes. How else would you update the OS or firmware, or back it up, etc? Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems to me, the iPad will always be "add-on" device, not a replacement. Am I missing something?



    I think what you're missing is the fact that a lot of people activate the iPad (this can be done in-store), then just use it for months without syncing with their computers. Music and podcasts, videos, movies can be downloaded on the iPad, apps and mail, Internet all no problem without a laptop. People with iPhones are notorious for going almost up to a year without figuring out what sync is... Regarding sync on AppleTV, for example, Steve said, "some people don't even know what that is...". It will take some time, but by middle to late next year iOS 5 will probably have iPad and iPhone untethered and non-forced OTA upgrades and some free cloud backup services. iPhone 5 probably will come with MobileMe Lite or something... Maybe.
  • Reply 84 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    In terms of AAPL I am not so sure because the general stock market sentiment weighs on it. But I think $300 by the end of Jan 2011 should be a given, assuming no major market drops in general. There are two quarters to report which should be sequentially the best Apple has done, ie. Calendar Q3 and Calendar Q4 2010.



    At least $320 by middle of 2011 should then follow on naturally.



    In any case, as long as Steve and the current team are still around (touch wood), things are shaping up very nicely for 2011.



    A given -- as in, satisfaction guaranteed or your money back?
  • Reply 85 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Interesting points. I think we have a situation here whereby RIM culture is so built up on business and the style, ethics and drive of "the suits". Interestingly, the product has attracted a following on the strength of some of its features. The question is, can RIM stay relevant and update itself for both markets? I would suggest they create a sub-brand. Just like Poppy under Coach. That should be what they are focusing on, not trying to play catch-up with a tablet that may or may not have good business use until a year from now... Though I would like to see the Blackpad gain traction, there just aren't enough iPads to go around in global usage even through end of next year!







    I think what you're missing is the fact that a lot of people activate the iPad (this can be done in-store), then just use it for months without syncing with their computers. Music and podcasts, videos, movies can be downloaded on the iPad, apps and mail, Internet all no problem without a laptop. People with iPhones are notorious for going almost up to a year without figuring out what sync is... Regarding sync on AppleTV, for example, Steve said, "some people don't even know what that is...". It will take some time, but by middle to late next year iOS 5 will probably have iPad and iPhone untethered and non-forced OTA upgrades and some free cloud backup services. iPhone 5 probably will come with MobileMe Lite or something... Maybe.



    Well reasoned and well said!



    .
  • Reply 86 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss;


    A given -- as in, satisfaction guaranteed or your money back?



    As in, "I'm not an analyst, but I play one on TV. I also offer MBA degrees..."
  • Reply 87 of 117
    B
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HIMIKO View Post


    YOUR ESTIMATE IS FAR FAR BETTER and CORRECT than A BUNCH OF " USELESS " , " INCOMPETENT ", " DULL " ANALISTS on The LIST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    YOUR GUESS IS ALMOST " IDENTICAL " To MINE EXCEPT The NUMBER of i-Pad!



    Mine is A Bit Balder!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    EARLIER ON THIS YEAR, I ESTIMATED i-Pad's SALES 2010 To BE " 10 MILLION " Amidst Silly Analysts' ESTIMATES TO BE from Around 1 Million to 3~4 Million at ITS BEST!





    THEY (Analysts) HAVE BEEN REALLY SUCH " BLIND " , Compared With The ORDINARY PEOPLE'S INSTINKT OF SNIFFING " FUTURE "!!!!!!!!!!!!



    HOW Still DARE THEY Claim ThemSelves TO BE " ANALYST "?????????





    MY Guess of SALES of i-Pad 2011 IS " 5 Million A Month " AS WELL AS i-Phone EVEN Without Inaugulation of i-Pad 2!!!!!!!!!!!



    B



    Don't be too hard on the analysts -- they are preaching to the only choir that will follow them!



    I was with you, when the analysts estimated total tablet sales for 2010 would be 10.5 million units -- I predicted that 10 million of those would be iPads! I was way low!



    I think your estimates of 7 million a month are attainable -- even without an iPad 2 announcement.



    What has to happen is:



    -- mass purchases by households - 1 per family member and several dedicated to specific uses

    -- mass acceptance by education at all levels

    -- mass acceptance by enterprise/organizational groups - medical, government, supermarkets, etc.



    This is the biggie:



    -- mass acceptance by mom & pop small businesses - restaurants, dry cleaners, pet stores...





    It's gonna' happen!



    .
  • Reply 88 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    I think we have a situation here whereby RIM culture is so built up on business and the style, ethics and drive of "the suits". Interestingly, the product has attracted a following on the strength of some of its features. The question is, can RIM stay relevant and update itself for both markets? I would suggest they create a sub-brand. Just like Poppy under Coach. That should be what they are focusing on, not trying to play catch-up with a tablet that may or may not have good business use until a year from now... Though I would like to see the Blackpad gain traction, there just aren't enough iPads to go around in global usage even through end of next year!



    1. BlackBerry's enterprise features sell themselves to businesses. Of course RIM should continue to develop the enterprise side of BlackBerry. That's a major bit of RIM's identity as a company. But I think that one thing you don't quite understand is that the teens will care about none of the enterprise features in a BlackBerry. They don't care, and they don't have to, because all of those features stay deeply in the background and don't get in the way of their own user experience (which is primarily BBM and Facebook-driven).



    So this whole thing of creating a kids-oriented sub-brand is unneccessary, both in marketing costs and R&D. Microsoft tried this with Kin, and it failed. I believe it's primarily because they didn't follow the "Pixar Theorem". What is that? Well, basically, Pixar movies are known as being incredibly entertaining for adults, as much as they are for even the younger kids out there. One of the Pixar execs was interviewed a while back, and asked why that was. His response: "We don't make movies for kids." He explained that they make movies for themselves, then take out anything objectionable to kids. Furthermore, he said that kids aren't as stupid as many people think.



    What BlackBerry offers is Pixar in a phone. Teens get something; adults get it, too, but also have a bunch of other stuff, just for them. But that's all on the same device, with the same OS. Microsoft didn't try that with Kin.



    BBM sells itself to kids, once they see it and use it. BBM works fine with the current RIM phones. Get kids into BlackBerry/BBM as kids, watch them become adults, then see them stay with BlackBerry as they grow into those enterprise features (which were always there), helping them in their newfound careers! In other words, let BlackBerry be whatever the user wants it to be. This process currently is seamless.



    2. The focus on tablets is absolutely a necessity for RIM. Gosh, the dinosaur known as RIM gets it more than Microsoft does! Go read this thread again, and see if you can re-evaluate the point of tablets. Read (or re-read) my post about connection between Microsoft and IBM. This is a huge emerging market that is scratching the surface on what it can do. Google and Apple are already in the market. RIM needs to get into this market ASAP, and so does Microsoft (even though MS doesn't know it, yet). I can't blame RIM for focusing on what they are.



    Quote:

    It will take some time, but by middle to late next year iOS 5 will probably have iPad and iPhone untethered and non-forced OTA upgrades and some free cloud backup services. iPhone 5 probably will come with MobileMe Lite or something... Maybe.



    An interesting question, that I don't have the answer to: How will Apple be able to minimize the number of OTA updates, and therefore the strain on cell carriers? Will OTA updates and MobileMe Lite require WiFi? Will they only be available after, say, 15 days of availability? Will there still be the option to do it wired, via iTunes, once the OTA dialog appears?
  • Reply 89 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    As in, "I'm not an analyst, but I play one on TV. I also offer MBA degrees..."



    I'll take two!
  • Reply 90 of 117
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,687member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    Remember the line from the introduction event in 2007 when Steve said re: the iPhone touch interface? ...... "and we have patents, boy, do we have patents".



    It still doesn't keep someone from building a car control system around iOS devices. Free app for you Nissan in the app store. Don't own an iOS device? There's an accessory package with one included. Why not? IOS is certainly better and more capable platform than the embedded systems currently being used in many cars.
  • Reply 91 of 117
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,687member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    With less than a full year of iPad sales behind them I think it's premature to say it's a mature market. In 3 to 5 years maybe, but that still leaves a lot of time for various competitors to get into the mix. I don't think anyone is going to catch Apple anytime soon, if ever. .... just my 2¢



    I was referring mainly to phones - but since the iPad is "just" a big iPod Touch I would consider it far more mature than any of the iPad killers. That still aren't shipping.



    The only company that isn't being totally reactionary is HP - and even their moves are mostly reactionary (and not shipping either).
  • Reply 92 of 117
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,687member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    and once he was exposed to the GUI that Apple was working on .... windows was developed and at that point with, or without IBM I'm sure Gates would have found a way to sell his OS. In any case the whole deal was beneficial to both IBM and MSF.



    Actually, MS screwed IBM - they "partnered" with IBM on OS/2 while secretly also working on windows. Once Windows was to a good enough point they left IBM high and dry.



    The fact that companies are still willing to sign up to resell things like Windows Phone 7 still boggles my mind (plays for sure being one of the latest abusing of "partners" that carries on this fine tradition).
  • Reply 93 of 117
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,687member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Landcruiser View Post


    Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems to me, the iPad will always be "add-on" device, not a replacement. Am I missing something?



    Always is a long time. They may not support it today, but it's not a stretch to assume that one day Apple couldn't support a stand alone cloud based iPad. They have to be planning something for that huge data center.
  • Reply 94 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HIMIKO View Post




    HOW Still DARE THEY Claim ThemSelves TO BE " ANALYST "?????????





    MY Guess of SALES of i-Pad 2011 IS " 5 Million A Month " AS WELL AS i-Phone EVEN Without Inaugulation of i-Pad 2!!!!!!!!!!!



    IF i-Pad 2 COMES, OVERALL SALES of i-Pad COULD REACH " 7 MILLION A Month "!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    I hope you are right!



    BTW is there a problem with your exclamation and question mark keys?
  • Reply 95 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mikemikeb;


    An interesting question, that I don't have the answer to: How will Apple be able to minimize the number of OTA updates, and therefore the strain on cell carriers? Will OTA updates and MobileMe Lite require WiFi? Will they only be available after, say, 15 days of availability? Will there still be the option to do it wired, via iTunes, once the OTA dialog appears?



    MobileMe Lite could be cellular and wifi like MobileMe now. OTA updates would be wifi only. iTunes will still definitely be allowed for more extensive backup and such.
  • Reply 96 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    Actually, MS screwed IBM - they "partnered" with IBM on OS/2 while secretly also working on windows. Once Windows was to a good enough point they left IBM high and dry.



    The fact that companies are still willing to sign up to resell things like Windows Phone 7 still boggles my mind (plays for sure being one of the latest abusing of "partners" that carries on this fine tradition).



    A number of years ago, the chairman of AT&T said that "Bill Gates can be your partner and be your enemy at the same time."
  • Reply 97 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    Actually, MS screwed IBM - they "partnered" with IBM on OS/2 while secretly also working on windows. Once Windows was to a good enough point they left IBM high and dry.



    The fact that companies are still willing to sign up to resell things like Windows Phone 7 still boggles my mind (plays for sure being one of the latest abusing of "partners" that carries on this fine tradition).



    it wasn't really that MS screwed ibm, ibm did it to themselves. they wanted the os tied to their hardware so that you had to use ibm for everything. but dos ran on lots of non-ibm machines. the clones. and ms needed to sell to those as well, so windows 3.0.

    clones and windows 3 were a big hit and the 'ibm only' strategy failed. so ms ditched os/2 and went whole hog with Windows.

    that same idea is what would have dramatically changed maybe killed off apple back before jobs returned. cheap clones with apple os. why buy apple hardware? jobs stopped that first thing.
  • Reply 98 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by screamingfist View Post


    it wasn't really that MS screwed ibm, ibm did it to themselves. they wanted the os tied to their hardware so that you had to use ibm for everything. but dos ran on lots of non-ibm machines. the clones. and ms needed to sell to those as well, so windows 3.0.

    clones and windows 3 were a big hit and the 'ibm only' strategy failed. so ms ditched os/2 and went whole hog with Windows.

    that same idea is what would have dramatically changed maybe killed off apple back before jobs returned. cheap clones with apple os. why buy apple hardware? jobs stopped that first thing.



    IBM first tried to reclaim control of their hardware platform with Micro Channel. Good technology, poorly implemented. But it's pretty apparent that Microsoft screwed IBM with OS/2, probably with forethought. They partnered with IBM to develop the technology, saying publicly that the were totally committed to OS/2, then bugged out in a hurry when Windows 3.0 took off. Probably that was the plan all along. Some of the OS/2 technology turned up in WindowsNT. IBM had lots of faults at the time, but topping the list was trusting Bill Gates.
  • Reply 99 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    IBM first tried to reclaim control of their hardware platform with Micro Channel. Good technology, poorly implemented. But it's pretty apparent that Microsoft screwed IBM with OS/2, probably with forethought. They partnered with IBM to develop the technology, saying publicly that the were totally committed to OS/2, then bugged out in a hurry when Windows 3.0 took off. Probably that was the plan all along. Some of the OS/2 technology turned up in WindowsNT. IBM had lots of faults at the time, but topping the list was trusting Bill Gates.



    everyone blames bill gates. what was ms to do? develop an os that ibm clearly wanted to control and then allow ibm to dump ms or at best be the developer of an ibm only os?

    ibm wanted control of the os and the hardware. ms just did what it had to do to stay relevant and make money. ibm was trying to do the same, they failed. so i don't see it as ms was 'plotting' to screw ibm.
  • Reply 100 of 117
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by screamingfist View Post


    everyone blames bill gates. what was ms to do? develop an os that ibm clearly wanted to control and then allow ibm to dump ms or at best be the developer of an ibm only os?

    ibm wanted control of the os and the hardware. ms just did what it had to do to stay relevant and make money. ibm was trying to do the same, they failed. so i don't see it as ms was 'plotting' to screw ibm.



    I'm not sure I understand your point. It's not a matter of blame. Assume both companies were "plotting" to control their markets. I do. It's only natural. The point I am making here is that more than one company found out to their chagrin that Bill & Co. would pledge partnership and then work feverishly behind the scenes to undermine them. Sometimes they partnered for no other reason than to use their partnership access to snuff a potential competitor. It took awhile but Microsoft developed a reputation as an untrustworthy partner. When companies didn't need them as much, they looked elsewhere for partnerships. I think Microsoft is still trying to live down their reputation as an unreliable partner, which goes back to incidents like their handling of IBM and OS/2.
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