Apple's new MacBook Air predicted to sell 700K during holidays

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
Apple's new 11.6- and 13.3-inch MacBook Air models are expected to be a major boon for Mac sales this holiday season, with one firm forecasting sales of 700,000 in the quarter, and a Wall Street analyst anticipating gross margins of about 32 percent.



The research department of Concord Securities has reportedly predicted that the MacBook Air will account for 17 percent of an estimated 4.1 million Mac shipments this fall. In addition, Mingchi Kuo, vice president of the firm's research department, believes the new, smaller model with an 11.6-inch screen will account for 60 percent of MacBook Air sales.



Sales of 4.1 million Macs in the quarter would be yet another record for Apple. Just this week, the company revealed it sold 3.89 million Macs in the previous quarter, the best three-month frame for the company yet.



Apple's Mac business was on display this week at the "Back to the Mac" event, where the new MacBook Airs with instant-on capabilities were unveiled. The notebooks start at $999 for the 11.6-inch model.



Analyst Brian Marshall of Gleacher & Company said in a note to investors this week that he believes Apple's new MacBook Air models carry a gross margin profile of greater than 30 percent. If true, that would be greater than his estimated blended margins of more than 20 percent for the rest of Apple's notebook line.



Marshall estimated that the blended gross margins for the new MacBook Air models will be 32.1 percent. He sees the low-end $999 model with a total cost to Apple of $718, while the high-end 13.3-inch model with 256GB of storage retailing for $1,599 likely costs Apple $1,007.40.



Marshall said he has not yet changed his forecast for just over 4 million Macs in the December quarter, though he added the new, lower priced MacBook Air models could add a "kicker" in the future. Gleacher & Company has maintained its price target of $355 for AAPL stock.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 43
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,522member
    I wonder what the profit margin is on the Air compared to the MacBook Pros that they'll be cannibalizing... Presumably we're talking about people switching from the 13" MBP to the new Air (and of course some old Air people switching to the new Air).
  • Reply 2 of 43
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    That seems like a high percentage of Macs based on a 5M Mac forecast for the quarter.
  • Reply 3 of 43
    Are we done with the "few more surprises" before the end of the year or are there more to come?
  • Reply 4 of 43
    While the new Macbook Air is pretty slick, I think when most compare the spec's and prices to a hard-drive Macbook Pro (or even a SSD-drive MBP), they'll see you get more for your money with a standard Macbook Pro, including 10-hour battery life.



    The Air will appeal to the gadget freaks who have to have the latest new toy, but it's pretty under-powered for the price. Most folks can't live with 64 or 128GB of hard drive space these days. Heck, my music collection alone is 90GB, and I want room to grow. The new MB Air is slower, with less storage space, than my 3-year-old pre-unibody MBP. And with the same battery life.



    I have been waiting for this refresh for a while, but am mostly unimpressed. I'm going to upgrade my 3-year-old 15" MBP from its mostly-full 160GB hard drive to a 500GB drive, and hope for something better down the road.
  • Reply 5 of 43
    And how is OS X Lion going to spur sales in the next quarter when it is not being released until summer '011? Great analysis Mingchi Kuo.
  • Reply 6 of 43
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by frugality View Post


    While the new Macbook Air is pretty slick, I think when most compare the spec's and prices to a hard-drive Macbook Pro (or even a SSD-drive MBP), they'll see you get more for your money with a standard Macbook Pro, including 10-hour battery life.



    The Air will appeal to the gadget freaks who have to have the latest new toy, but it's pretty under-powered for the price. Most folks can't live with 64 or 128GB of hard drive space these days. Heck, my music collection alone is 90GB, and I want room to grow. The new MB Air is slower, with less storage space, than my 3-year-old pre-unibody MBP. And with the same battery life.



    I have been waiting for this refresh for a while, but am mostly unimpressed. I'm going to upgrade my 3-year-old 15" MBP from its mostly-full 160GB hard drive to a 500GB drive, and hope for something better down the road.



    I’m not sure why you were waiting for this refresh when "you get more for your money with a standard Macbook Pro” will always be true. Miniaturization costs money. Those are LV and ULV CPUs in the 13” and 11” MBAs, respectively, and they are expensive.
  • Reply 7 of 43
    I was at an Apple store yesterday picking up a copy of iLife '11 and was hoping to get a chance to look at them in person.



    The new airs weren't in the store yet. They still had the previous version on the floor.



    It will be interesting to see where these go. The biggest drawback to me is the internal storage capacity. I tend to have a lot of photos/videos on my macbook pro, so I don't think the advantage of size/weight would be worth it for me. But there are probably lots of people who will find them just right.



    Since Apple hardware is the only place to legitimately run OSX, I think it is great that they are offering more options.
  • Reply 8 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by frugality View Post


    While the new Macbook Air is pretty slick, I think when most compare the spec's and prices to a hard-drive Macbook Pro (or even a SSD-drive MBP), they'll see you get more for your money with a standard Macbook Pro, including 10-hour battery life.



    The Air will appeal to the gadget freaks who have to have the latest new toy, but it's pretty under-powered for the price. Most folks can't live with 64 or 128GB of hard drive space these days. Heck, my music collection alone is 90GB, and I want room to grow. The new MB Air is slower, with less storage space, than my 3-year-old pre-unibody MBP. And with the same battery life.



    I have been waiting for this refresh for a while, but am mostly unimpressed. I'm going to upgrade my 3-year-old 15" MBP from its mostly-full 160GB hard drive to a 500GB drive, and hope for something better down the road.



    The technology is not there to produce an ultra-light notebook that can deliver what you are obviously hoping for. You pay for the convenience of having an exceptionally light laptop and the trade-off is less power. On the other hand, if what you want is a device that aces the portable side of the equation and has just enough power to perform particular tasks, the new Air gets it done.



    In time, Apple will be able to raise the bar but right now, the available technology is what it is.



    I have to say that I'm surprised that you would be expecting anything close to MacBook Pro performance with this particular form factor. For those who are in the market for such a computer, the question isn't how does the Air compare in terms of performance for the price but rather how capable is the machine, as in does it have enough horsepower to get the job done. For each potential purchaser, there could be a very different answer.



    I find if curious when the discussion veers towards expressing concern over performance relative to price. If you want bang for the buck, Apple never looks good in terms of raw specs. It's about the quality of a design not the quantity in terms of memory, CPU speed, etc.
  • Reply 9 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by debusoh View Post


    I was at an Apple store yesterday picking up a copy of iLife '11 and was hoping to get a chance to look at them in person.



    The new airs weren't in the store yet. They still had the previous version on the floor.



    Someone should pick them up and put them on the table.
  • Reply 10 of 43
    joe hsjoe hs Posts: 488member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post


    Someone should pick them up and put them on the table.



  • Reply 11 of 43
    jwdawsojwdawso Posts: 370member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by frugality View Post


    While the new Macbook Air is pretty slick, I think when most compare the spec's and prices to a hard-drive Macbook Pro (or even a SSD-drive MBP), they'll see you get more for your money with a standard Macbook Pro, including 10-hour battery life.



    The Air will appeal to the gadget freaks who have to have the latest new toy, but it's pretty under-powered for the price. Most folks can't live with 64 or 128GB of hard drive space these days. Heck, my music collection alone is 90GB, and I want room to grow. The new MB Air is slower, with less storage space, than my 3-year-old pre-unibody MBP. And with the same battery life.



    I have been waiting for this refresh for a while, but am mostly unimpressed. I'm going to upgrade my 3-year-old 15" MBP from its mostly-full 160GB hard drive to a 500GB drive, and hope for something better down the road.



    Obviously you value a larger drive with a fast CPU and more battery life. But for those that value portability and higher screen resolution, the choice will be just as simple, but for the MacBook Air.



    If a person needs CPU speed, the Air is not in their future. But if the main need is MS Office (i.e., non-CPU intensive application), chat, IM, mail, and the internet, then this may be their ticket. Since we all have iPhones/iPods/iPads, the storage space for music can be an external drive.



    My guess is that the $999 will be hot, especially for college students.
  • Reply 12 of 43
    sheffsheff Posts: 1,407member
    I could see a lot of MBA 13 sales that would cannibalize the MacBook sales. I think the machine is awesome for what it's intended for - thin and light consume model. I doubt those who want a mbp would go for air simply because it is still a bit underpowered at comparable price points.



    11 inch might be a hit with students that already have decent desktops and want something really small to take notes, watch videos and do some homework on, but for longer papers I always find myself hooking up the 17 inch monitor.
  • Reply 13 of 43
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Slash Gear's "MacBook Air 11.6″ Review is quite illuminating.



    As they conclude, "As with the previous MacBook Air, the style will win hearts in the Apple Store; what makes the difference is that the day-to-day experience is strong enough to win over your head and wallet, too."



    And you really have to read their real-world experience to appreciate their enthusiasm.



    http://www.slashgear.com/macbook-air...view-22109859/
  • Reply 14 of 43
    After being really excited to get an Air, I think the Pro is a better choice for me. I really wanted the 11", since you can't get that size in any other Apple product. But only the 13" has an SD card slot. Once I realized I prefered the 13" (simple for that slot), the Pro seemed like a better value. I'm not sure how many others will follow the same line of thinking, but it seems to me the 13" Airs will be slow moving.
  • Reply 15 of 43
    nasseraenasserae Posts: 3,166member
    I think Apple will discontinue the white MacBook now that they have $999 MB Air. In my opinion, they should drop the Air from the name.
  • Reply 16 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post


    Someone should pick them up and put them on the table.



    Yep before someone accidentally steps on them.
  • Reply 17 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post


    I think Apple will discontinue the white MacBook now that they have $999 MB Air. In my opinion, they should drop the Air from the name.



    Yeah.. I don't think Nike is too happy with Apple using Air.
  • Reply 18 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacKeeperFunReg View Post


    And how is OS X Lion going to spur sales in the next quarter when it is not being released until summer '011? Great analysis Mingchi Kuo.



    I predict all retail versions of Lion's release will be USB based from then on. Because how would you install it on the Air? (Not counting CD sharing or buying external drive)
  • Reply 19 of 43
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JustReelFilms View Post


    I predict all retail versions of Lion's release will be USB based from then on. Because how would you install it on the Air? (Not counting CD sharing or buying external drive)



    True or via online download like a lot softwares are now a days.
  • Reply 20 of 43
    lvidallvidal Posts: 158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post


    I think Apple will discontinue the white MacBook now that they have $999 MB Air. In my opinion, they should drop the Air from the name.



    I think 2 things:



    - The white MacBook down to $799, or

    - The white MacBook dissapears.



    I believe in the 2nd thing, because now all its line is aluminum, the white looks out.
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