DtoH: Finally MWSF: Just as the iMac was the show this year, the G5 finally rises from the vapour, and the world basks in its glow (which might be read as a heat issue.
I think you might be a few months early. ATAT has noted that Motorola's new processors have shown up about 15 months after their introductions at the MPC forum. If we assume that the processor they unvailed last October was part of the g5 family, then 15 month would be Seybold, 2003 or something similarly timed. Of course by then I doubt anyone will be basking in the G5s glow, as Intel?AMD chips will probably be clocking at 3ghz.
I liked your other predictions, but I'd lower the mhz by 2-400 per new powerMac iteration, with a topping out at around 1.5ghz (I think this was the figure quoted in the MacCentral article)
Belle said: I guess we have come farther than we thought. Apple really didn't make a big deal about the apollo at all. This could mean they are not going to stay with it for long.
Has Apple made a big deal about other interations of the G4? Apollo, v'ger, 7410 is all too technical for the avg Mac customer. Just because they don't blow the trumpets here doesn't mean we won't see this chip for the next year; in fact I assume Apple will milk it for all it's worth-maybe 3 speed bumps?
MWNY will bring a major revision to the PM line, including all of the great technologies listed elsewhere (1394b, ata100+, ddr) but I have no idea if it will be G4 or G5.
Motorola - specifically, Motorola SPS - is in a transitional period. They're trying aggressively to turn the company around. The 7451 and 7441 have won them some big customers besides Apple. In the worst case, Apple now has the option to buy out Motorola's interest in AIM, and thus in the PowerPC, so if everything goes wrong Apple can at least recover all the IP.
G5 by MWNY. It's pretty obvious that Apple's PowerMac engineers didn't really put a lot of effort into this speedbump. I think they are focused on a much bigger project. The fact that the SOI 7455 G4 hasn't had a lot of fanfare is another indicator of how it really isn't going to be a processor that will lead the PowerMacs into 2003. (Yet will still have life in it for the iMacs, and the 7445 for the portable line)
I think these PowerMacs had to be released to buy the G5 team (and Motorola) more time. The thing's been in development for 2 years. Come on people.
March is a key month. We've got MWT, the Screen Saver promo ending, the tentative release date for OS X 10.2 (which could add support for G5s, notice how Apple has been mum on 10.2, unlike 10.1). The IEEE1394b spec has just now been approved, and this could have been holding up engineers as well. I think this Spring we are going to be seeing some amazing stuff.
I doubt we will have to wait till MWNY for IEEE1394b. It should be out any day now. Thats why we will see a big upgrade soon. We will get DDR RAM and IEEE1394b.
Also IBMs version of the G5 according to IBM will be out in 2002.
Okay, I'll add a bit of brain power to the AI Braintrust:
It seems that those in the rumor/speculation game have gotten pretty darn good at predicting Apple's moves, although they often predict future events when they are two or three steps away; we are then disappointed when our hopes haven't been fulfilled in the short term. I think the Apollo is one such case, and the 14.1" iBook is another. (Remember after the initial release of the iceBook a rumor came out about 14.1" iBooks? Everyone dismissed it, some people thought it was referring to the iMac, and some believed it was a son of Pismo. But now we have the 14.1" iBooks 8 or so months later.) However, the iMac G4 is the most compelling case of all. . .
We were expecting the iMac LCD for a long, long time prior to its introduction. It was rumored for quite a long time, and it was, after all, the natural evolution of the iMac CRT. By the time it finally debuted, we held nearly total confidence in its appearance. The point is, even though Apple has clamped down on leaks, the rumor sites still get factual tidbits; it just turns out that their timing is skewed optimistically. The Apollo introduction was telegraphed, especially considering the alleged Learn and Earn slip up (which may have been staged to take the heat off of Apple). The Apollo case is not the norm; over-optimistic time scales is what to expect, which leads me to the following conclusions:
** The G5 most certainly exists, but we're not going to see it until there is general consensus as to its release. It is widely rumored to be in actual, blazing fast Macs, it is the natural evolution of the G4, and we're all waiting for it. It is most likely a Motorola chip created with great Apple input. Perhaps IBM will fabricate it, or the company may indeed have much more to do with its core development. MWSF 2003 sounds like the most realistic timetable, short of a tremendous jump in progress. One thing is for sure, we can't live on Apollos for all that long.
** The Apollo will scale, but no one's quite confident as to the final clock rating at this point. I wouldn't expect too much from Apollo, simply because past trends usually are indicative of future performance, at least in the G4's case. We'll get more MHz from a die shrink, but I don't know if we can get more than 300 additional MHz when all is said and done.
** If the aforementioned assumption is at all true, we will see a return of the Two Brains scheme. We know that these Apollos are a lot more cost effective, and we also know that Apple's using the most expensive chip for the dualie right now. That?s a good sign for a number of MP units, so I believe we will get two brains at MWNY, or possibly even 4! :cool: However, my feeling is that as long as we stay with Apollo, we won't see real motherboard improvements. All of those features come with the G5. If we were to see DDR Ram, Gigawire, Airport 3, 400MHz effective bus, etc. etc., on the Apollo, that would mean something was likely radically wrong with G5 development.
** The PowerBook will get the new low power Apollo, and it will probably have MHz parity with the iMac. March is a good time for this to happen. The iMac will get the Apollo in the near future, perhaps 800s and 933s at MWNY.
** The iBook will get the Apollo at some point, however it will trickle down from the 14.1" first, due to the better cooling provided by the larger case. There will have to be a sufficient MHz differential in order to justify the price of the Ti.
** The crappy BTO options (read lack thereof) currently available on the new QSs is a temporary condition. Apple ramped up production to get these machines immediately in the stores, and they don't want to deal with BTO until they clear out the current stock a bit.
** Apple seems to be a bit more flexible with pricing structure with each iteration of the Power Mac, so I think we may yet get a low cost tower. Perhaps one G4 will hang around for $1200 or so, after the introduction of the G5s.
** Now for the heretical beliefs: Dorsal M is real, in my opinion. I do believe there is a Newton 2, but Apple won't release it until the market conditions are right. :eek: ?I Want to Believe.?
<disclaimer>: Note, this is a relatively new set of theories, based entirely on historically grounded common sense. These predictions are set to change. I have no inside information whatsoever. These views are not representative of my employer. </disclaimer>
1. G5 released at MWNY latest, possibly a suprise release at the Superbowl? The mediocre update to the existing PM G4 line is a clue. They are saving the good stuff till the G5 is ready (DDR/ATA133). Whether Motorola or IBM build it? I'd plump for IBM given Motorola's current situation.
2. Expect some graphics technology based on Raycer.
3. Dual processors will be the norm
4. Gigawire will turn out to be a solution for easy cluster setup for rendering etc
5. iMacs updated sooner than you think- after 500,000 are sold expect a jump to 800/800/1000 . possibly at the same time as:
6. PM G4 scale to 1000/1200/1400
7. TiBook bumps up to 800/933 (within weeks)
Timescale for all of this? within 6 months.
PS. everyone will be blown away by the G5 and Apple will be forgiven. New G5 case is totally amazing and cool. A golden age for Apple will begin...
PPS. expext an amazing advert featuring Pixar.
This is a true story, only the facts have been changed
-G5 this summer, not 2003, G5 pushed solely for Apple purposes not to fulfill Mot's embedded market initially. Fabrication by IBM, not Mot, Mot gains from R&D and process techniques, may produce mobile version in 2003.
-TiBooks will use G4 until 2003 fall
-iBooks will use G3 until 2003 fall
-Expect GREAT gains in Apple server technology in 2003
1. The BookE specifications which will be used in the generation 5 processors by both IBM and Motorola allows IBM to implement Altivec without a big effort and cost parallel to their own G5-developments in one chip.
2. Apple could be the one who puts much effforts on the development of the Mot-G5, it was rumoured very often that apple coworkers are working together with mot to help on different problems. also rumoured was that apple invests much money to the G5 development (either to IBM or Motorola)
3. Someone from Motorola mentioned in an interview that the G4 tops out at speeds at around 1Ghz - i don't think he's lying, so why should there be 1.4 Ghz G4's ? even if its possible by reducing the fab-technology to 130nm from the current 180nm....
4. The 8540 should be available in summer to fall 2002 - i think the G5 which will be used by apple will be out before that!!! the thing with the 15 month after Mot- product announcements is not given anymore because motorola doesn't say and announce anything that has something to do with the Apple-used-G5 (they themselves said that Apple has the right to announce such a product)... things changes...
Altivec isn't going away. As another poster pointed out above, DSP is huge. SIMD is perfect for ths kinda stuff. Apple wants to do this kinda stuff: Apple wants Altivec in everything. You need a special codec to Apply to video? New sound analysis/algorithym to utilize? Altivec makes it possible for you to do all of this in software. You can upgrade/change/evolve it too, without replacing costly hardware.
IBM will bring an SIMD unit to PPC. Mot isn't stopping them. When the first Sahara chips were announced, statements from IBM intimated that a Sahara II would follow (in late 2002) which would clock substantially higher (up to 2Ghz) and use an SIMD unit of some kind.
Apple ain't building software around SIMD technology to abruptly abandone it in 12 months time. Professional and Consumer audio/video and encoding products will depend on it. Look for altivec to grow, not quietly shrink away.
Starting February 7, Apple will have BTO options for GeForce 4 cards (not the MX renamed and castrated GF 3 MX crap), maybe also Radeon 8500.
Next event (of importance): MWTY
Next item due for an update: TiBook and maybe TFTs
means: TiBook gets G4 speedbump, up to say, 800MHz, possibly 7445 already (I find this very likely). But that wouldn't cut it, thus there will be something else: TiBook gets new motherboard:
FireWire 2, maybe USB 2.0 (if Apple wants to adobt it), AirPort 3, 133MHz bus...?
Screens: 15" gets kicked out. Higher res on the rest. Maybe Cinemadisplay goes 24".
Then what do we have: We have a TiBook with better mobo specs than the rest. What do we do?
Next event: Seybold, WWDC or the like
Next change: iBook gets the new mobo, G3 from 600-800, 14.1 on two models, 12.1 only in the "el-cheapo"
Next event: MWNY
Situation: Fast and furious PowerBooks, retarded desktop hardware
Next change:
iMac speedbump announced? transition to new mobo, keeps the SDRAM.
PowerMacs (and now comes the hard part): Either we'll see the new mobo, with all the new interfaces and DDR, or whatever Apple chooses to boost Ram performance (nobody ever said Apple necessarily needed to choose DDR-RAM out of the standards there are, although it's likely) and the G5 chip.
If not, then a new mobo, possibly with DDR, and G4 Apollo, with a speedbump of 233MHz MAX, don't expect more, even if it's feasible.
Along with that comes Mac OS X 10.2 (which is 64bit optimized, if we get the G5) and iPhoto 2.0.
Next event: Apple Expo Paris
Situation: fast machines all over the line
Next change: iMac speedbump if that wasn't done at MWNY, including the new mobo (UMA 2), another chance for G5 announcement (not shipment) if not at MWNY. Possible new iDevice, say an iCamcorder, or iPod 2 (with more than just MP3 features), taht could also be on schedule for MWNY already.
Next event: MWSF 03
Situation: new round of speedbumps due
Changes: Speedbumps on most lines, G5 transition, if not at the two earlier changes. Mac OS X 10.3
General software update round, yet another iDevice possible.
What follows:
iBook and TiBook get new enclosure, iBook goes G4, ProServer line revealed.
The first PowerMac featuring a G5 chip will certainly have a new case and mobo.
Apollo won't scale beyong 1.4GHz in 2002, even if it's possible, Apple won't do it. They're greedy and want to milk customers. That's sad, but the past has shown that. They'll never release more than absolutely necessary. (and we're stupid enogh to buy it year after year, but what do you want...)
Now some more theoretical stuff:
Speedbump history (top models):
{604xx: 120-132-150-180-200-225-233-350 (8 bumps, 3 different CPUs)}
Even leaving the Yikes and downgrade out of the game, we have reached the 5 bump-mark with this release..."sense a pattern?"
I guess we can only wait for releases, or confirmed news to know for sure.
One last thing:
Waiting for a system will absolutely not keep you waiting forever.
I've been waiting since 1995 for the ultimate Mac.
With the Beige G3, it was there, all the new tech, new chip, new mainboard, new RAM etc all in one box. If not then, the B&W would have been it, bringing usb and firewire.
Since then little has changed apart from AGP and the G4...we're up for a major overhaul, friends.
1. Apple has taken orders for 150,000 iMacs in three weeks. It's flying.
2. The PM speed bump is really pretty good and moves the PM just forward enough to keep it's sales going at a reasonable level, the price drop is that extra insurance.
3. The G5 is ready.
4. Nothing is allowed to interfear with the response to the new iMac, Sales of the iMac are so strong why do any thing that may damage it's sales. Why confuse the market place.
5. Apple has exactly the response it wanted to the new iMac, it really could not have been any better.
6. Apple wants the new G5 SuperMac to have exactly the same response. Let everyone place their iMac orders first.
If this is true they can't wait too long because intel isn't waiting. However this is going to be Apples' year. By the end of 2002 we could see every machine with a 1ghz G4 or higher and the PM's with the G5. I don't know if the G5 is ready, but if it was and I was Apple I would not release it now, there is just too much excitement over the new iMac. Money just can't buy this kind of publicity/excitement.
If I had the G5 I would use it as a weapon and deploy it as soon as the iMac drops out of the limelight...say July 16th.
I wish some people would realize that just because the Apollo G4 has a lot of life in it doesn't mean that it will power ONLY the PowerMacs until MWSF. Like Applenut said in another thread, do you think Apple will just let the TiBook, iBook, and iMac lines stay at the same stagnant speeds they are now? Of course not. The Apollo G4 will be there to keep these product lines fairly close to PowerMac speeds, yet the PowerMacs will have the advantage with the G5. Basically it's a great plan. Base your products around 2 high performance CPUs that can BOTH scale into the foreseeable future. (Especially the G5)
1. G5 released at MWNY latest, possibly a suprise release at the Superbowl? The mediocre update to the existing PM G4 line is a clue. They are saving the good stuff till the G5 is ready (DDR/ATA133). Whether Motorola or IBM build it? I'd plump for IBM given Motorola's current situation.
2. Expect some graphics technology based on Raycer.
3. Dual processors will be the norm
4. Gigawire will turn out to be a solution for easy cluster setup for rendering etc
5. iMacs updated sooner than you think- after 500,000 are sold expect a jump to 800/800/1000 . possibly at the same time as:
6. PM G4 scale to 1000/1200/1400
7. TiBook bumps up to 800/933 (within weeks)
Timescale for all of this? within 6 months.
PS. everyone will be blown away by the G5 and Apple will be forgiven. New G5 case is totally amazing and cool. A golden age for Apple will begin...
PPS. expext an amazing advert featuring Pixar.
This is a true story, only the facts have been changed
Philbot you sure are confident the G5 is ready. If it is indead ready I am not surprised apple is holding off for a few months. Let the iMac have its fame then as soon as things begin to quiet down release the G5. Although I do not believe we will see Dual G5s accross the board. To expensive.
Tell me philbot why are you so confident about these G5s?
Comments
Same old SDRAM
Same old ATA66 drive
Same old 133 bus
Faster CPUs and better grafix card
R&D required = ZERO!!
They've been working on
I hope its a G5, and not Apollo
G5 by MWNY, anyone??
[Edit: added prediction of G5 announcement time]
[ 01-29-2002: Message edited by: Derrick 61 ]</p>
I think you might be a few months early. ATAT has noted that Motorola's new processors have shown up about 15 months after their introductions at the MPC forum. If we assume that the processor they unvailed last October was part of the g5 family, then 15 month would be Seybold, 2003 or something similarly timed. Of course by then I doubt anyone will be basking in the G5s glow, as Intel?AMD chips will probably be clocking at 3ghz.
I liked your other predictions, but I'd lower the mhz by 2-400 per new powerMac iteration, with a topping out at around 1.5ghz (I think this was the figure quoted in the MacCentral article)
Belle said: I guess we have come farther than we thought. Apple really didn't make a big deal about the apollo at all. This could mean they are not going to stay with it for long.
Has Apple made a big deal about other interations of the G4? Apollo, v'ger, 7410 is all too technical for the avg Mac customer. Just because they don't blow the trumpets here doesn't mean we won't see this chip for the next year; in fact I assume Apple will milk it for all it's worth-maybe 3 speed bumps?
MWNY will bring a major revision to the PM line, including all of the great technologies listed elsewhere (1394b, ata100+, ddr) but I have no idea if it will be G4 or G5.
<strong>
Motorola - specifically, Motorola SPS - is in a transitional period. They're trying aggressively to turn the company around. The 7451 and 7441 have won them some big customers besides Apple. In the worst case, Apple now has the option to buy out Motorola's interest in AIM, and thus in the PowerPC, so if everything goes wrong Apple can at least recover all the IP.
[ 01-29-2002: Message edited by: Amorph ]</strong><hr></blockquote>
very interesting stuff and some really good points. thanks
I think these PowerMacs had to be released to buy the G5 team (and Motorola) more time. The thing's been in development for 2 years. Come on people.
March is a key month. We've got MWT, the Screen Saver promo ending, the tentative release date for OS X 10.2 (which could add support for G5s, notice how Apple has been mum on 10.2, unlike 10.1). The IEEE1394b spec has just now been approved, and this could have been holding up engineers as well. I think this Spring we are going to be seeing some amazing stuff.
I think many will be surprised.
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: Tarbash ]</p>
I doubt we will have to wait till MWNY for IEEE1394b. It should be out any day now. Thats why we will see a big upgrade soon. We will get DDR RAM and IEEE1394b.
Also IBMs version of the G5 according to IBM will be out in 2002.
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: M5884 ]</p>
It seems that those in the rumor/speculation game have gotten pretty darn good at predicting Apple's moves, although they often predict future events when they are two or three steps away; we are then disappointed when our hopes haven't been fulfilled in the short term. I think the Apollo is one such case, and the 14.1" iBook is another. (Remember after the initial release of the iceBook a rumor came out about 14.1" iBooks? Everyone dismissed it, some people thought it was referring to the iMac, and some believed it was a son of Pismo. But now we have the 14.1" iBooks 8 or so months later.) However, the iMac G4 is the most compelling case of all. . .
We were expecting the iMac LCD for a long, long time prior to its introduction. It was rumored for quite a long time, and it was, after all, the natural evolution of the iMac CRT. By the time it finally debuted, we held nearly total confidence in its appearance. The point is, even though Apple has clamped down on leaks, the rumor sites still get factual tidbits; it just turns out that their timing is skewed optimistically. The Apollo introduction was telegraphed, especially considering the alleged Learn and Earn slip up (which may have been staged to take the heat off of Apple). The Apollo case is not the norm; over-optimistic time scales is what to expect, which leads me to the following conclusions:
** The G5 most certainly exists, but we're not going to see it until there is general consensus as to its release. It is widely rumored to be in actual, blazing fast Macs, it is the natural evolution of the G4, and we're all waiting for it. It is most likely a Motorola chip created with great Apple input. Perhaps IBM will fabricate it, or the company may indeed have much more to do with its core development. MWSF 2003 sounds like the most realistic timetable, short of a tremendous jump in progress. One thing is for sure, we can't live on Apollos for all that long.
** The Apollo will scale, but no one's quite confident as to the final clock rating at this point. I wouldn't expect too much from Apollo, simply because past trends usually are indicative of future performance, at least in the G4's case. We'll get more MHz from a die shrink, but I don't know if we can get more than 300 additional MHz when all is said and done.
** If the aforementioned assumption is at all true, we will see a return of the Two Brains scheme. We know that these Apollos are a lot more cost effective, and we also know that Apple's using the most expensive chip for the dualie right now. That?s a good sign for a number of MP units, so I believe we will get two brains at MWNY, or possibly even 4! :cool: However, my feeling is that as long as we stay with Apollo, we won't see real motherboard improvements. All of those features come with the G5. If we were to see DDR Ram, Gigawire, Airport 3, 400MHz effective bus, etc. etc., on the Apollo, that would mean something was likely radically wrong with G5 development.
** The PowerBook will get the new low power Apollo, and it will probably have MHz parity with the iMac. March is a good time for this to happen. The iMac will get the Apollo in the near future, perhaps 800s and 933s at MWNY.
** The iBook will get the Apollo at some point, however it will trickle down from the 14.1" first, due to the better cooling provided by the larger case. There will have to be a sufficient MHz differential in order to justify the price of the Ti.
** The crappy BTO options (read lack thereof) currently available on the new QSs is a temporary condition. Apple ramped up production to get these machines immediately in the stores, and they don't want to deal with BTO until they clear out the current stock a bit.
** Apple seems to be a bit more flexible with pricing structure with each iteration of the Power Mac, so I think we may yet get a low cost tower. Perhaps one G4 will hang around for $1200 or so, after the introduction of the G5s.
** Now for the heretical beliefs: Dorsal M is real, in my opinion. I do believe there is a Newton 2, but Apple won't release it until the market conditions are right. :eek: ?I Want to Believe.?
<disclaimer>: Note, this is a relatively new set of theories, based entirely on historically grounded common sense. These predictions are set to change. I have no inside information whatsoever. These views are not representative of my employer. </disclaimer>
1. G5 released at MWNY latest, possibly a suprise release at the Superbowl? The mediocre update to the existing PM G4 line is a clue. They are saving the good stuff till the G5 is ready (DDR/ATA133). Whether Motorola or IBM build it? I'd plump for IBM given Motorola's current situation.
2. Expect some graphics technology based on Raycer.
3. Dual processors will be the norm
4. Gigawire will turn out to be a solution for easy cluster setup for rendering etc
5. iMacs updated sooner than you think- after 500,000 are sold expect a jump to 800/800/1000 . possibly at the same time as:
6. PM G4 scale to 1000/1200/1400
7. TiBook bumps up to 800/933 (within weeks)
Timescale for all of this? within 6 months.
PS. everyone will be blown away by the G5 and Apple will be forgiven. New G5 case is totally amazing and cool. A golden age for Apple will begin...
PPS. expext an amazing advert featuring Pixar.
This is a true story, only the facts have been changed
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: philbot ]</p>
Motorola announced Apollo in October of 2000, and 15 months later, it was in a Powermac.
Motorola announced the 85xx series in October of 2001, and 15 months later.....
Sense a pattern?
MWSF '03 == G5.
Jet
-TiBooks will use G4 until 2003 fall
-iBooks will use G3 until 2003 fall
-Expect GREAT gains in Apple server technology in 2003
-Expect GREAT gains in Apple server technology in 2003
<hr></blockquote>
Yes I agree. It really is time Apple produced a 'proper' server with built in redundancy: PSU, RAID etc.
The new "workstation class' G5 would be perfect for this.
1. The BookE specifications which will be used in the generation 5 processors by both IBM and Motorola allows IBM to implement Altivec without a big effort and cost parallel to their own G5-developments in one chip.
2. Apple could be the one who puts much effforts on the development of the Mot-G5, it was rumoured very often that apple coworkers are working together with mot to help on different problems. also rumoured was that apple invests much money to the G5 development (either to IBM or Motorola)
3. Someone from Motorola mentioned in an interview that the G4 tops out at speeds at around 1Ghz - i don't think he's lying, so why should there be 1.4 Ghz G4's ? even if its possible by reducing the fab-technology to 130nm from the current 180nm....
4. The 8540 should be available in summer to fall 2002 - i think the G5 which will be used by apple will be out before that!!! the thing with the 15 month after Mot- product announcements is not given anymore because motorola doesn't say and announce anything that has something to do with the Apple-used-G5 (they themselves said that Apple has the right to announce such a product)... things changes...
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: Krassy ]</p>
"Someone from Motorola mentioned in an interview that the G4 tops out at speeds at around 1Ghz"<hr></blockquote>
In a MacWorld UK article,12/05/2001, a Motorola spokesman, David Bearden, stated
1. "Apollo is set to run at GHz+ speeds."
2. "There's a great deal of headroom left in the chip, which still has enormous stability,"
<a href="http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/main_news_search.cfm?NewsID=3917"; target="_blank">http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/main_news_search.cfm?NewsID=3917</a>;
IBM will bring an SIMD unit to PPC. Mot isn't stopping them. When the first Sahara chips were announced, statements from IBM intimated that a Sahara II would follow (in late 2002) which would clock substantially higher (up to 2Ghz) and use an SIMD unit of some kind.
Apple ain't building software around SIMD technology to abruptly abandone it in 12 months time. Professional and Consumer audio/video and encoding products will depend on it. Look for altivec to grow, not quietly shrink away.
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: Matsu ]</p>
Seriously, why so negative these past few months?
Next change:
Starting February 7, Apple will have BTO options for GeForce 4 cards (not the MX renamed and castrated GF 3 MX crap), maybe also Radeon 8500.
Next event (of importance): MWTY
Next item due for an update: TiBook and maybe TFTs
means: TiBook gets G4 speedbump, up to say, 800MHz, possibly 7445 already (I find this very likely). But that wouldn't cut it, thus there will be something else: TiBook gets new motherboard:
FireWire 2, maybe USB 2.0 (if Apple wants to adobt it), AirPort 3, 133MHz bus...?
Screens: 15" gets kicked out. Higher res on the rest. Maybe Cinemadisplay goes 24".
Then what do we have: We have a TiBook with better mobo specs than the rest. What do we do?
Next event: Seybold, WWDC or the like
Next change: iBook gets the new mobo, G3 from 600-800, 14.1 on two models, 12.1 only in the "el-cheapo"
Next event: MWNY
Situation: Fast and furious PowerBooks, retarded desktop hardware
Next change:
iMac speedbump announced? transition to new mobo, keeps the SDRAM.
PowerMacs (and now comes the hard part): Either we'll see the new mobo, with all the new interfaces and DDR, or whatever Apple chooses to boost Ram performance (nobody ever said Apple necessarily needed to choose DDR-RAM out of the standards there are, although it's likely) and the G5 chip.
If not, then a new mobo, possibly with DDR, and G4 Apollo, with a speedbump of 233MHz MAX, don't expect more, even if it's feasible.
Along with that comes Mac OS X 10.2 (which is 64bit optimized, if we get the G5) and iPhoto 2.0.
Next event: Apple Expo Paris
Situation: fast machines all over the line
Next change: iMac speedbump if that wasn't done at MWNY, including the new mobo (UMA 2), another chance for G5 announcement (not shipment) if not at MWNY. Possible new iDevice, say an iCamcorder, or iPod 2 (with more than just MP3 features), taht could also be on schedule for MWNY already.
Next event: MWSF 03
Situation: new round of speedbumps due
Changes: Speedbumps on most lines, G5 transition, if not at the two earlier changes. Mac OS X 10.3
General software update round, yet another iDevice possible.
What follows:
iBook and TiBook get new enclosure, iBook goes G4, ProServer line revealed.
The first PowerMac featuring a G5 chip will certainly have a new case and mobo.
Apollo won't scale beyong 1.4GHz in 2002, even if it's possible, Apple won't do it. They're greedy and want to milk customers. That's sad, but the past has shown that. They'll never release more than absolutely necessary. (and we're stupid enogh to buy it year after year, but what do you want...)
Now some more theoretical stuff:
Speedbump history (top models):
{604xx: 120-132-150-180-200-225-233-350 (8 bumps, 3 different CPUs)}
1.5 mainboard generations
G3: 266-300-333-400-450 (5 bumps, 3 beige, 2 blue)
2 mainboard generations
G4: 400-450-500-533-733-867-1000 (7 bumps, 1 yikes, 1 downgraded sawtooth, 1 sawtooth, 3 sawtooth digi audio, 1 apollo)
3.5 mainboard generations
Even leaving the Yikes and downgrade out of the game, we have reached the 5 bump-mark with this release..."sense a pattern?"
I guess we can only wait for releases, or confirmed news to know for sure.
One last thing:
Waiting for a system will absolutely not keep you waiting forever.
I've been waiting since 1995 for the ultimate Mac.
With the Beige G3, it was there, all the new tech, new chip, new mainboard, new RAM etc all in one box. If not then, the B&W would have been it, bringing usb and firewire.
Since then little has changed apart from AGP and the G4...we're up for a major overhaul, friends.
G-News
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: G-News ]</p>
1. Apple has taken orders for 150,000 iMacs in three weeks. It's flying.
2. The PM speed bump is really pretty good and moves the PM just forward enough to keep it's sales going at a reasonable level, the price drop is that extra insurance.
3. The G5 is ready.
4. Nothing is allowed to interfear with the response to the new iMac, Sales of the iMac are so strong why do any thing that may damage it's sales. Why confuse the market place.
5. Apple has exactly the response it wanted to the new iMac, it really could not have been any better.
6. Apple wants the new G5 SuperMac to have exactly the same response. Let everyone place their iMac orders first.
If this is true they can't wait too long because intel isn't waiting. However this is going to be Apples' year. By the end of 2002 we could see every machine with a 1ghz G4 or higher and the PM's with the G5. I don't know if the G5 is ready, but if it was and I was Apple I would not release it now, there is just too much excitement over the new iMac. Money just can't buy this kind of publicity/excitement.
If I had the G5 I would use it as a weapon and deploy it as soon as the iMac drops out of the limelight...say July 16th.
:cool:
<strong>My predictions:
1. G5 released at MWNY latest, possibly a suprise release at the Superbowl? The mediocre update to the existing PM G4 line is a clue. They are saving the good stuff till the G5 is ready (DDR/ATA133). Whether Motorola or IBM build it? I'd plump for IBM given Motorola's current situation.
2. Expect some graphics technology based on Raycer.
3. Dual processors will be the norm
4. Gigawire will turn out to be a solution for easy cluster setup for rendering etc
5. iMacs updated sooner than you think- after 500,000 are sold expect a jump to 800/800/1000 . possibly at the same time as:
6. PM G4 scale to 1000/1200/1400
7. TiBook bumps up to 800/933 (within weeks)
Timescale for all of this? within 6 months.
PS. everyone will be blown away by the G5 and Apple will be forgiven. New G5 case is totally amazing and cool. A golden age for Apple will begin...
PPS. expext an amazing advert featuring Pixar.
This is a true story, only the facts have been changed
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: philbot ]</strong><hr></blockquote>
--------------------------------------
Philbot you sure are confident the G5 is ready. If it is indead ready I am not surprised apple is holding off for a few months. Let the iMac have its fame then as soon as things begin to quiet down release the G5. Although I do not believe we will see Dual G5s accross the board. To expensive.
Tell me philbot why are you so confident about these G5s?
[ 01-30-2002: Message edited by: M5884 ]</p>