Arrival of Apple's iPhone on Verizon predicted to disrupt 1M Android sales

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
With Verizon the strongest carrier for the Google Android mobile operating system, the arrival of Apple's iPhone on the largest network in America is expected to displace around a million Android handset sales in the first quarter of availability.



Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Thursday that Verizon typically would have sold between 4 million and 5 million Android handsets this quarter if Apple's iPhone were not available. But he sees the arrival of the iPhone taking a chunk out of Android sales on Verizon, disrupting them by about a million.



The analyst sees Apple selling about 1.5 million iPhones on Verizon in the carrier's first fiscal quarter of 2011. The iPhone, which formally launched today, will only be available for a portion of the quarter.



On AT&T, where the iPhone was exclusive in the U.S. until today, Munster sees Apple selling 2.9 million units in the March 2011 quarter, a number which assumes Verizon sales will cannibalize 740,000 sales from its rival. AT&T also has the benefit of a full quarter of iPhone sales.



The arrival of the iPhone on Verizon is a key strategic move, Munster believes, as he estimates that the carrier accounts for roughly 20 percent of total Android users worldwide.



The sales forecast from Piper Jaffray would have Android continue to outsell the iPhone on Verizon in the carrier's first quarter. Munster said that he believes Android is garnering higher unit share than the iPhone due to a wider selection of phones, greater supply, and lower pricing.







But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability, a measurement where Apple holds a considerable lead. The iPhone's share of smartphone profits was over 50 percent of the market in 2010, while Android was responsible for less than 25 percent, split among several device manufacturers.



Looking long term, the analyst sees Android and the iPhone controlling over half of the smartphone market by the fourth quarter of calendar 2012. And by 2015, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 27
    Why do people keep putting a complete HW product up against an OS. Why not say "iOS for iPhone + Android for smartphones”? That is what we’re talking about and that is more clear. I qualified with iPhone and smartphones because i don’t think they are including anything else.
  • Reply 2 of 27
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    just one million? And here you guys are talkin like the iphone is good or somethin...





  • Reply 3 of 27
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,561member
    "But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability" No sh*t Sherlock!
  • Reply 4 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    And by 215, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.



    Yeah, I kinda agree with the above comments. We read everywhere that "Android is...." this and that of the market compared to Apple.



    The reality is that Apple makes an iPhone smartphone (that makes a ton of profit) with iOS software. Android is a free piece of software given to smartphone manufacturers who make handsets that don't make a ton of profit and are totally scattered.



    But yet the media is ALWAYS placing them at the same level.



    I guess the media plays this numbers game because they figure whoever will end up with the most market share will win in the end?



    I just find the media gives Google and Android too much credit on par with Apple when they're just not there.
  • Reply 5 of 27
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,737member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post




    ... And by 215, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.



    Wow! You have to be good to predict the mix of phone sales over two hundred years after the cataclysim that is coming in 2012. (At least that is the only reason I can see for restarting the calendar any time soon...)



    But seriously, how can you predict with any kind of precision even 3-4 years? Things are too fluid.
  • Reply 6 of 27
    From USATODAY:



    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf



    "ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
  • Reply 7 of 27
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 1,745member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Logisticaldron View Post


    Why do people keep putting a complete HW product up against an OS. Why not say "iOS for iPhone + Android for smartphones”? That is what we’re talking about and that is more clear. I qualified with iPhone and smartphones because i don’t think they are including anything else.



    They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.
  • Reply 8 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    From USATODAY:



    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf



    "ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."



    http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/08/ver...phone-antenna/
  • Reply 9 of 27
    poochpooch Posts: 768member
    cnn is reporting that there are few in lines for the launch



    http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1
  • Reply 10 of 27
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,077member
    Share, schmare. Profitability is where it's at!
  • Reply 11 of 27
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    From USATODAY:



    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf



    "ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."



    jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?
  • Reply 12 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post


    They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.



    Or, in other words, engaging in the fallacy of hasty generalization.
  • Reply 13 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Pooch View Post


    cnn is reporting that there are few in lines for the launch



    http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1



    Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.
  • Reply 14 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.



    Rumor has it the iPhone 5, if it comes in June, will not be LTE for the simple fact that the LTE network is in its infant stages. Why introduce a phone with LTE tech if hardly anyone can use it?



    Second, I also hear that a phone will have a hard time switching from LTE to 3G back to LTE without some sort of service interuption.



    With LTE no where near where I live, there is no reason for me to get an LTE iPhone. I just got the iPhone for Verizon and I feel like a kid on Christmas. It's an awesome phone and IF the iPhone 5 does debut in June, it does not change the fact that the iPhone 4 is still a remarkable device.
  • Reply 15 of 27
    Verizon iPhone sales will be by the high end of the Android customer base. The rest will be happy with... well an Android phone.
  • Reply 16 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?



    How about you put your phone between your thighs and then complain you can't get reception?



    These tests about signal drop are absurd.
  • Reply 17 of 27
    These kind of analyst reports are useless!
  • Reply 18 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kerryb View Post


    Verizon iPhone sales will be by the high end of the Android customer base. The rest will be happy with... well an Android phone.



    Verizon now has a 3-tiered phone lineup, with iPhone at the top. Naturally.



  • Reply 19 of 27
    sheffsheff Posts: 1,407member
    Market share is important for developers and developers ensure there are cool apps to ensure profitabilty. So they are relates.
  • Reply 20 of 27
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    From USATODAY:



    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf



    "ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."



    Sounds like iLounge needs to improve their web traffic. Maybe if AOL bought them it would help. Just ask the Engadget guys.



    Consumer reports, who famously did not recommend the AT&T version of iPhone 4, have lavished praise on the Verizon iPhone 4. (And I don't want to hear any talk of payola either here, folks.)



    http://blogs.consumerreports.org/ele...y-reviews.html
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