You mean they're following Apple and not dumping OSX in favor of a mobile OS?
Arguably WinCE isn't a horrible foundation either and my preferred one. However, applying the WP7 UI design for a customized Win7 tablet is arguably better.
Apple are not dumping OSX - but they have branched it.
One branch for desktop applications - which I explained above, will become increasingly a niche. And another branch for mobile applications, which will become increasingly the mainstream of personal computing.
Microsoft is wedded to the desktop business model. Most of their income comes from Windows. They are simply not prepared to endanger that model because it is the bedrock of everything they do.
Creating a Windows alternative is not something Microsoft would be prepared to do.
That MS isn't unprepared for the tablet market but that their strategy differs?
That Win7 is better than OSX for tablets doesn't make Win 7 a good choice for tablets and market experience has shown a poor response to these products. There is literally a decade of desk top windows failing on tablets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
A strategy that depended on Intel having an Atom product more suitable for tablets than they currently do...hence the port of Win7 on ARM.
Win7 on a tablet isn't a horrible choice even if my preference is for WP7. It probably is better to scale down WinNT for the tablet than scale WinCE up given that is what Apple did with OSX.
Win7 on a tablet IS a poor choice. Its got usability issues and performance issues. See here. Hence their poor adoption by consumers and vendors. That Dell intends to release a tablet with Win7 on it means nothing. What successes have Dell had lately?
MS only hope is Win 8 and thats at least one year off. Who knows what the competitive landscape will look like then but my guess is that Apple will have a shit load of tablets sold and tremendous developer momentum.
You're cherry picking items that match your world view. The majority of iPad usage is web browsing. Facebook, readers, free apps and so on.
I'm cherry picking the App stores own top grossing list?
You said:
"I don't think people buying tablets are doing so to run office productivity applications. The tablet is really the first type of personal computer which didn't have office equipment in its DNA."
If this is really true then why are office apps the second most downloaded and purchased apps in the iPad app store after games?
Why do the business and productivity categories dominate the top download and top grossing list? It sure as hell isn't because of cherry picking.
Quote:
The user-interface of Office is really not that great on the desktop. It would be challenging for MS to re-factor it into something that would work on a tablet.
Challenge or not if MS Office HD appeared in the iPad app store I bet it would beat Angry Birds HD for top slot very quickly.
Quote:
Instead of saying that major manufacturers have abandoned Microsoft. It would be more accurate to say that they are in the process of abandoning. They will certainly stick out a W7 tablet and see how it sells.
Right. And your support for that hypothesis is what? That they also offer android tablets? This is the same as claiming that PC makers were going to abandon Windows for Linux when the first netbooks were mostly Linux and only a couple folks offered XP.
That sure changed in a hurry. In 2007-8 Linux was king. By 2010 folks don't even make linux netbooks for the US market. That's not going to happen to Android but claiming that MS is dead and PC makers are "in the process of abandoning" MS is quite a stretch.
Lets see in 2012 where the market sits. I'm guessing a three way race between iOS, Android and Win7.
Quote:
But if they discover that Android / WebOS tablets sell more, then abandonment process will be rapidly completed.
Given that we have only started the tablet race this is a huge "if". I don't think HP has what it takes to be an Apple.
Nht makes a good point about productivity apps on the iPad. Rather susprising, that in fact.
he underestimates the engineering effort that MS has to make to port stuff to WP7 mobile. I think both versions of word use obsoleted technologies - i.e. Carbon or Win32/Win64. Not Cocoa and C#
Apple are not dumping OSX - but they have branched it.
One branch for desktop applications - which I explained above, will become increasingly a niche. And another branch for mobile applications, which will become increasingly the mainstream of personal computing.
Microsoft is wedded to the desktop business model. Most of their income comes from Windows. They are simply not prepared to endanger that model because it is the bedrock of everything they do.
Creating a Windows alternative is not something Microsoft would be prepared to do.
C.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
Given that their strategy is to extend the desktop to tablets this doesn't endanger their market much. And I think they have clued into the fact that it's better than you cannibalize your own market as opposed to let someone else do so. Whether they can execute on that clue is debatable.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
Given that their strategy is to extend the desktop to tablets this doesn't endanger their market much. And I think they have clued into the fact that it's better than you cannibalize your own market as opposed to let someone else do so. Whether they can execute on that clue is debatable.
You really have no idea. Not one line of code is common between NT and Windows 7 mobile.
Nht makes a good point about productivity apps on the iPad. Rather susprising, that in fact.
he underestimates the engineering effort that MS has to make to port stuff to WP7 mobile. I think both versions of word use obsoleted technologies - i.e. Carbon or Win32/Win64. Not Cocoa and C#
They already have Office Mobile. What they need to do is make sure they are 100% compatible with the desktop versions which I am not sure that they are. MS Office does offer managed code plug ins so there is some .net in there.
Then again iWork isn't either...
So I'm not underestimating as much as claiming that MS and Apple have fairly level playing fields with that regard.
MS ported OneNote to iOS...that was surprising as hell.
You really have no idea. Not one line of code is common between NT and Windows 7 mobile.
Yes, and MS keeps claiming that Windows is their tablet strategy and not WinPhone. Therefore their tablet strategy is based on the NT kernel and not the WinCE one.
Why? I can argue both ways which might be better. But if WinNT lives on ARM tablets with Win8 then eventually I can see WinCE going away.
I don't think the top grossing, or top downloads necessarily reflect usage. Or why people are buying tablets.
But even if they did, the top 100 downloads are dominated by games. Other categories seem equal. And quite a few apps called productivity are todo lists and jotters. Productivity is not the goal of the tablet user.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
Given that we have only started the tablet race this is a huge "if".
Microsoft has been making tablets for what? 13 years?
The race has not just started. But MS is on entirely the wrong racetrack. Each Windows on a tablet implementation failed to fly. And the experience has not improved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
I don't think HP has what it takes to be an Apple.
Like you, I am not sure that HP *can* compete with Apple.
But at least they have figured out that if you manufacture hardware and the software to go on it, you can raise margins and create a much more refined user experience.
For them, this is an improvement from licensing an OS, and then finding you are making a commodity rather than a product.
That Win7 is better than OSX for tablets doesn't make Win 7 a good choice for tablets and market experience has shown a poor response to these products. There is literally a decade of desk top windows failing on tablets.
They'll have to steal liberally from Apple to make this work. But the primary thing is touch friendly app launching and...apps. These they can steal from WP7...both a touch skin and apps.
Quote:
MS only hope is Win 8 and thats at least one year off. Who knows what the competitive landscape will look like then but my guess is that Apple will have a shit load of tablets sold and tremendous developer momentum.
WP7's primary tablet advantage is time to market. As in MS could field a credible tablet OS based on WP7 pretty much tomorrow if they really had to.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
Win8 is the long term solution.
Well, they said that WP7 is right out. So a Win7 tablet edition with a WP7 skin and a Win7 app store with touch friendly office in late 2011 that can easily transition to Win8 is my guess at what they are thinking.
Yes, and MS keeps claiming that Windows is their tablet strategy and not WinPhone. Therefore their tablet strategy is based on the NT kernel and not the WinCE one.
Why? I can argue both ways which might be better. But if WinNT lives on ARM tablets with Win8 then eventually I can see WinCE going away.
Oh, right. If thats the case then you are correct. I think that makes sense, as Windows Mobile 7 doesn't scale.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
I am skeptical.
I think they will emerge with a Windows build for Arm.
But if it emerges with draggable windows, scroll bars, pull-down menus and other 30 year old desktop user-interface metaphors, then it's a non-starter.
WP7's primary tablet advantage is time to market. As in MS could field a credible tablet OS based on WP7 pretty much tomorrow if they really had to.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
Win8 is the long term solution.
Well, they said that WP7 is right out. So a Win7 tablet edition with a WP7 skin and a Win7 app store with touch friendly office in late 2011 that can easily transition to Win8 is my guess at what they are thinking.
The problem here is that apps written to run on WP7 (WinCE) probably aren't going to work on Win8. Thats probably one reason why developers are slow to adopt WP7. It looks like a dead end OS. Like you said earlier, MS can probably scale Win 8 to smartphones if they can make it work on a tablet.
From where I'm sitting MS doesn't look like thet will have their smart phone and tablet strategy in place until 2012 at the earliest. Thats's a huge lead to give to Apple and they will face all the hurdles Apple faces on the desk top, except that Apple has the lead in the growing platform and MS has the lead in the declining platform.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
I think such a product will cause massive consumer confusion.
Not because it is incompatible with existing software, but because it is compatible with existing software.
People will try to run their beloved desktop apps on the tablet, only to discover the touch targets are too small, scrolling is weird and so on. An app, which was perfectly fine on a desktop, has become all sucky on a tablet.
The only way to create a better portable environment is to cut all ties with legacy software. Take off, and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
And I just don't believe Microsoft is prepared to do that.
The problem here is that apps written to run on WP7 (WinCE) probably aren't going to work on Win8. Thats probably one reason why developers are slow to adopt WP7. It looks like a dead end OS. Like you said earlier, MS can probably scale Win 8 to smartphones if they can make it work on a tablet.
Apps written in C# and Silverlight for WP7 should port very easily to Win8.
Quote:
From where I'm sitting MS doesn't look like thet will have their smart phone and tablet strategy in place until 2012 at the earliest. Thats's a huge lead to give to Apple and they will face all the hurdles Apple faces on the desk top, except that Apple has the lead in the growing platform and MS has the lead in the declining platform.
Smartphone is WP7. That's now not 2012.
The foundation for Windows developers isn't Win7 or WP7 but .NET, WPF and Silverlight.
Tablet will be in flux...will they wait until Win8 or go with Win7+something? If they go with Win8 then I agree...2012 before they have a credible competitor. Win7+skin+app store can be done by late 2011.
Apps written in C# and Silverlight for WP7 should port very easily to Win8.
Smartphone is WP7. That's now not 2012.
The foundation for Windows developers isn't Win7 or WP7 but .NET, WPF and Silverlight.
Tablet will be in flux...will they wait until Win8 or go with Win7+something? If they go with Win8 then I agree...2012 before they have a credible competitor. Win7+skin+app store can be done by late 2011.
NHT.
Apple didn't just create an OS branch and touch GUI.
It also...
* Launched a new platform with no support for desktop legacy software.
* Adopted a curated approach for all software. All 3rd party apps need to be signed.
Comments
You mean they're following Apple and not dumping OSX in favor of a mobile OS?
Arguably WinCE isn't a horrible foundation either and my preferred one. However, applying the WP7 UI design for a customized Win7 tablet is arguably better.
Apple are not dumping OSX - but they have branched it.
One branch for desktop applications - which I explained above, will become increasingly a niche. And another branch for mobile applications, which will become increasingly the mainstream of personal computing.
Microsoft is wedded to the desktop business model. Most of their income comes from Windows. They are simply not prepared to endanger that model because it is the bedrock of everything they do.
Creating a Windows alternative is not something Microsoft would be prepared to do.
C.
That MS isn't unprepared for the tablet market but that their strategy differs?
That Win7 is better than OSX for tablets doesn't make Win 7 a good choice for tablets and market experience has shown a poor response to these products. There is literally a decade of desk top windows failing on tablets.
A strategy that depended on Intel having an Atom product more suitable for tablets than they currently do...hence the port of Win7 on ARM.
Win7 on a tablet isn't a horrible choice even if my preference is for WP7. It probably is better to scale down WinNT for the tablet than scale WinCE up given that is what Apple did with OSX.
Win7 on a tablet IS a poor choice. Its got usability issues and performance issues. See here. Hence their poor adoption by consumers and vendors. That Dell intends to release a tablet with Win7 on it means nothing. What successes have Dell had lately?
MS only hope is Win 8 and thats at least one year off. Who knows what the competitive landscape will look like then but my guess is that Apple will have a shit load of tablets sold and tremendous developer momentum.
Hence their port of Win7 to ARM and their unchanging view that Win7 is their tablet strategy...
.
Win 8 is going to be ported to ARM. Thats a year away if everything goes as planned.
You're cherry picking items that match your world view. The majority of iPad usage is web browsing. Facebook, readers, free apps and so on.
I'm cherry picking the App stores own top grossing list?
You said:
"I don't think people buying tablets are doing so to run office productivity applications. The tablet is really the first type of personal computer which didn't have office equipment in its DNA."
If this is really true then why are office apps the second most downloaded and purchased apps in the iPad app store after games?
Why do the business and productivity categories dominate the top download and top grossing list? It sure as hell isn't because of cherry picking.
The user-interface of Office is really not that great on the desktop. It would be challenging for MS to re-factor it into something that would work on a tablet.
Challenge or not if MS Office HD appeared in the iPad app store I bet it would beat Angry Birds HD for top slot very quickly.
Instead of saying that major manufacturers have abandoned Microsoft. It would be more accurate to say that they are in the process of abandoning. They will certainly stick out a W7 tablet and see how it sells.
Right. And your support for that hypothesis is what? That they also offer android tablets? This is the same as claiming that PC makers were going to abandon Windows for Linux when the first netbooks were mostly Linux and only a couple folks offered XP.
That sure changed in a hurry. In 2007-8 Linux was king. By 2010 folks don't even make linux netbooks for the US market. That's not going to happen to Android but claiming that MS is dead and PC makers are "in the process of abandoning" MS is quite a stretch.
Lets see in 2012 where the market sits. I'm guessing a three way race between iOS, Android and Win7.
But if they discover that Android / WebOS tablets sell more, then abandonment process will be rapidly completed.
Given that we have only started the tablet race this is a huge "if". I don't think HP has what it takes to be an Apple.
Win 8 is going to be ported to ARM. Thats a year away if everything goes as planned.
My bad, yes, win8.
he underestimates the engineering effort that MS has to make to port stuff to WP7 mobile. I think both versions of word use obsoleted technologies - i.e. Carbon or Win32/Win64. Not Cocoa and C#
Apple are not dumping OSX - but they have branched it.
One branch for desktop applications - which I explained above, will become increasingly a niche. And another branch for mobile applications, which will become increasingly the mainstream of personal computing.
Microsoft is wedded to the desktop business model. Most of their income comes from Windows. They are simply not prepared to endanger that model because it is the bedrock of everything they do.
Creating a Windows alternative is not something Microsoft would be prepared to do.
C.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
Given that their strategy is to extend the desktop to tablets this doesn't endanger their market much. And I think they have clued into the fact that it's better than you cannibalize your own market as opposed to let someone else do so. Whether they can execute on that clue is debatable.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
Given that their strategy is to extend the desktop to tablets this doesn't endanger their market much. And I think they have clued into the fact that it's better than you cannibalize your own market as opposed to let someone else do so. Whether they can execute on that clue is debatable.
You really have no idea. Not one line of code is common between NT and Windows 7 mobile.
Nht makes a good point about productivity apps on the iPad. Rather susprising, that in fact.
he underestimates the engineering effort that MS has to make to port stuff to WP7 mobile. I think both versions of word use obsoleted technologies - i.e. Carbon or Win32/Win64. Not Cocoa and C#
They already have Office Mobile. What they need to do is make sure they are 100% compatible with the desktop versions which I am not sure that they are. MS Office does offer managed code plug ins so there is some .net in there.
Then again iWork isn't either...
So I'm not underestimating as much as claiming that MS and Apple have fairly level playing fields with that regard.
MS ported OneNote to iOS...that was surprising as hell.
You really have no idea. Not one line of code is common between NT and Windows 7 mobile.
Yes, and MS keeps claiming that Windows is their tablet strategy and not WinPhone. Therefore their tablet strategy is based on the NT kernel and not the WinCE one.
Why? I can argue both ways which might be better. But if WinNT lives on ARM tablets with Win8 then eventually I can see WinCE going away.
But even if they did, the top 100 downloads are dominated by games. Other categories seem equal. And quite a few apps called productivity are todo lists and jotters. Productivity is not the goal of the tablet user.
Given that we have only started the tablet race this is a huge "if".
Microsoft has been making tablets for what? 13 years?
The race has not just started. But MS is on entirely the wrong racetrack. Each Windows on a tablet implementation failed to fly. And the experience has not improved.
I don't think HP has what it takes to be an Apple.
Like you, I am not sure that HP *can* compete with Apple.
But at least they have figured out that if you manufacture hardware and the software to go on it, you can raise margins and create a much more refined user experience.
For them, this is an improvement from licensing an OS, and then finding you are making a commodity rather than a product.
C.
That Win7 is better than OSX for tablets doesn't make Win 7 a good choice for tablets and market experience has shown a poor response to these products. There is literally a decade of desk top windows failing on tablets.
They'll have to steal liberally from Apple to make this work. But the primary thing is touch friendly app launching and...apps. These they can steal from WP7...both a touch skin and apps.
MS only hope is Win 8 and thats at least one year off. Who knows what the competitive landscape will look like then but my guess is that Apple will have a shit load of tablets sold and tremendous developer momentum.
WP7's primary tablet advantage is time to market. As in MS could field a credible tablet OS based on WP7 pretty much tomorrow if they really had to.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
Win8 is the long term solution.
Well, they said that WP7 is right out. So a Win7 tablet edition with a WP7 skin and a Win7 app store with touch friendly office in late 2011 that can easily transition to Win8 is my guess at what they are thinking.
Yes, and MS keeps claiming that Windows is their tablet strategy and not WinPhone. Therefore their tablet strategy is based on the NT kernel and not the WinCE one.
Why? I can argue both ways which might be better. But if WinNT lives on ARM tablets with Win8 then eventually I can see WinCE going away.
Oh, right. If thats the case then you are correct. I think that makes sense, as Windows Mobile 7 doesn't scale.
MS isn't dumping NT - but they have branched it. One branch for desktop applications and another branch for tablets...unless you believe that they aren't going to continue to evolve windows for the tablet environment...
I am skeptical.
I think they will emerge with a Windows build for Arm.
But if it emerges with draggable windows, scroll bars, pull-down menus and other 30 year old desktop user-interface metaphors, then it's a non-starter.
C.
..
WP7's primary tablet advantage is time to market. As in MS could field a credible tablet OS based on WP7 pretty much tomorrow if they really had to.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
Win8 is the long term solution.
Well, they said that WP7 is right out. So a Win7 tablet edition with a WP7 skin and a Win7 app store with touch friendly office in late 2011 that can easily transition to Win8 is my guess at what they are thinking.
The problem here is that apps written to run on WP7 (WinCE) probably aren't going to work on Win8. Thats probably one reason why developers are slow to adopt WP7. It looks like a dead end OS. Like you said earlier, MS can probably scale Win 8 to smartphones if they can make it work on a tablet.
From where I'm sitting MS doesn't look like thet will have their smart phone and tablet strategy in place until 2012 at the earliest. Thats's a huge lead to give to Apple and they will face all the hurdles Apple faces on the desk top, except that Apple has the lead in the growing platform and MS has the lead in the declining platform.
A WP7 skin on top of Win7 is next fastest in time to market.
I think such a product will cause massive consumer confusion.
Not because it is incompatible with existing software, but because it is compatible with existing software.
People will try to run their beloved desktop apps on the tablet, only to discover the touch targets are too small, scrolling is weird and so on. An app, which was perfectly fine on a desktop, has become all sucky on a tablet.
The only way to create a better portable environment is to cut all ties with legacy software. Take off, and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
And I just don't believe Microsoft is prepared to do that.
C.
That's Nokia Siemens Networks which is a jointly owned but separate entity.
Yes. I know. But it's still part of Nokia's portfolio, and is reported as such. It's not entirely separate, and is controlled by both entities.
The problem here is that apps written to run on WP7 (WinCE) probably aren't going to work on Win8. Thats probably one reason why developers are slow to adopt WP7. It looks like a dead end OS. Like you said earlier, MS can probably scale Win 8 to smartphones if they can make it work on a tablet.
Apps written in C# and Silverlight for WP7 should port very easily to Win8.
From where I'm sitting MS doesn't look like thet will have their smart phone and tablet strategy in place until 2012 at the earliest. Thats's a huge lead to give to Apple and they will face all the hurdles Apple faces on the desk top, except that Apple has the lead in the growing platform and MS has the lead in the declining platform.
Smartphone is WP7. That's now not 2012.
The foundation for Windows developers isn't Win7 or WP7 but .NET, WPF and Silverlight.
Tablet will be in flux...will they wait until Win8 or go with Win7+something? If they go with Win8 then I agree...2012 before they have a credible competitor. Win7+skin+app store can be done by late 2011.
Apps written in C# and Silverlight for WP7 should port very easily to Win8.
Smartphone is WP7. That's now not 2012.
The foundation for Windows developers isn't Win7 or WP7 but .NET, WPF and Silverlight.
Tablet will be in flux...will they wait until Win8 or go with Win7+something? If they go with Win8 then I agree...2012 before they have a credible competitor. Win7+skin+app store can be done by late 2011.
NHT.
Apple didn't just create an OS branch and touch GUI.
It also...
* Launched a new platform with no support for desktop legacy software.
* Adopted a curated approach for all software. All 3rd party apps need to be signed.
Do you see MS following this path?
C.