Overwhelming iPad 2 demand continues, Apple's online orders now ship in 4-5 weeks

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  • Reply 41 of 97
    Apple is entering an interesting phase. They have achieved a volume of sales with iPad, iphone4 and now ipad2 that exceeds the ability to produce. Their weak point is now assembly and materials.



    The iPhone 4 was maybe 4 months or more at limited stock levels. This alters the purchase cycle for upgraders. iPhone5 and iPad3 could become stretched beyond consumer acceptability.



    Apple needs to take control of assembly, cause they can't just contract more plants it will stretch build quality and secrecy too thin. Let alone having to tool them up. Existing assembly providers are evidently over capacity, I'm sure apple would have them make more if they could.



    Faster than Chinese and more secure, robotic reprogrammable assembly is the only way. That and buying supply chain for parts. Even more radical is in store Micro assembly.



    That said, it going to help now.. I dread what is about to happen when it hits international, we'll be kucky if it doesn't end up with 2-3 months wait.
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  • Reply 42 of 97
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    found a Target in NYC in a not so good neighborhood. called around 2pm and only one person in line. best buy downstairs in that mall already had a lot of people in line.



    showed up at 4:40pm and was the 15th or 20th in line. walked out 5:45pm with a white 64gb wifi. only hiccup was my amex was declined due to a fraud alert and had to pay cash.



    meanwhile the best buy line downstairs hadn't moved. don't know how much they got in, but my target looked like they got in 30 or 40 or so
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  • Reply 43 of 97
    rtkanertkane Posts: 29member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post


    found a Target in NYC in a not so good neighborhood. called around 2pm and only one person in line. best buy downstairs in that mall already had a lot of people in line.



    showed up at 4:40pm and was the 15th or 20th in line. walked out 5:45pm with a white 64gb wifi. only hiccup was my amex was declined due to a fraud alert and had to pay cash.



    meanwhile the best buy line downstairs hadn't moved. don't know how much they got in, but my target looked like they got in 30 or 40 or so



    Apple store nearest me (Marlton, NJ) always has lines so I pre-orded at 3:50am. I figured I'd swing by my local Best Buy since I was in the area around 3:45. Was #17 or so in line and got my ticket within 45 minutes. Of course, it took another 50 minutes to get checked out and done, but at least I had my iPad in hand (and cancelled the order to free up one for someone else). There's an AT&T store that was right next door selling them with nobody on line (only the 3G version), yet people who wanted 3G were still standing in Best Buy's line for some strange reason.
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  • Reply 44 of 97
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Realistic View Post


    I agree!



    Yes, if, as expected, they are making as many as they can as fast as they can be made, they were forced. Of course they do know what their production schedule is, they just don't know exactly how many will be getting ordered. By looking at the estimated shipping times at the Apple store website, you can tell that they have run through the next shipping allotment. i.e. you have 500K units at launch, those get ordered, so they are forced to adjust the shipdate to when the next allotment arrives (or gets produced), say (100K units), when those are ordered, they are forced to push estimated ship times out to the scheduled arrival of the next allotment (another 100k units). So perhaps it should have read, "Apparently on-line orders have run through the first few allotments of iPad2's and to keep their estimated shipdates accurate, Apple changed the shipdates to when they expect to have the subsequent allotment of iPad2's available for shipping." That's not being forced? come on...
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  • Reply 45 of 97
    SpamSandwichspamsandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


    We need some balance here. We need DaHarder to post pictures of his superior Galaxy Tabs and Xooms. We need some pontifications about the deal killing flaws of the iPad 2. We need some "no Flash, no deal" tirades. Oh, and a few iSheep comments wouldn't hurt either.



    DaHarder = Tekstud ...and about half a dozen other trolls who can't get enough negative attention. He comes here between beatings with a green garden hose.
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  • Reply 46 of 97
    xsuxsu Posts: 401member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post


    Apple is entering an interesting phase. They have achieved a volume of sales with iPad, iphone4 and now ipad2 that exceeds the ability to produce. Their weak point is now assembly and materials.



    The iPhone 4 was maybe 4 months or more at limited stock levels. This alters the purchase cycle for upgraders. iPhone5 and iPad3 could become stretched beyond consumer acceptability.



    Apple needs to take control of assembly, cause they can't just contract more plants it will stretch build quality and secrecy too thin. Let alone having to tool them up. Existing assembly providers are evidently over capacity, I'm sure apple would have them make more if they could.



    Faster than Chinese and more secure, robotic reprogrammable assembly is the only way. That and buying supply chain for parts. Even more radical is in store Micro assembly.



    That said, it going to help now.. I dread what is about to happen when it hits international, we'll be kucky if it doesn't end up with 2-3 months wait.



    Apple taking physical control of production would be the worst thing to happen for Apple. Apple has demonstrated through their success and failure that their core skill is in design and marketing, not actual manufacturing. Taking on production would seriously dull their focus and drag down their ROI to boot.
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  • Reply 47 of 97
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


    We need some balance here. We need DaHarder to post pictures of his superior Galaxy Tabs and Xooms. We need some pontifications about the deal killing flaws of the iPad 2. We need some "no Flash, no deal" tirades. Oh, and a few iSheep comments wouldn't hurt either.



    He's the "King-of-all-things-Geek" over at Engadget.
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  • Reply 48 of 97
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Vandelay Industries View Post


    Yes Apple, work hard cracking the whip that makes the slaves pump these out faster.



    They aren't cracking any whips on any slaves. There are 18 Skus, that means that the gross load is spread out rather thin. So yeah it is going to take time. Get over it.



    Also, it is likely that they are running these things 80/20 in favor of the stores. But who knows what the total count is. For all we know, they can get 100k a week into the channel. Perhaps the whole 4 weeks thing is cause they actually have as much as 80k online orders. Or perhaps it is half that but they are being conservative on the times because they don't want to hit Foxconn with any stress over trying to fill 1 million units NOW.



    In the end, this is for 99% of folks just a toy. A cool toy but a toy none the less. So seriously get over the wait, the world is not going to end cause you didn't get your toy today. Consider the folks in Japan and Indonesia who need clean water, food, dry clothes, a place to sleep. That's something to freak about a few days wait over. That is life and death.
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  • Reply 49 of 97
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    Anyone know if the Japanese quake will cause (or is causing) supply chain delays in the iPad? Does iFixit have a component source breakdown anywhere?



    Don't know about Apple's supply chain, but mine is affected: my iPad has been delayed by FedEx because of the quake.
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  • Reply 50 of 97
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 2,699member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post


    Apple is entering an interesting phase. They have achieved a volume of sales with iPad, iphone4 and now ipad2 that exceeds the ability to produce. Their weak point is now assembly and materials.



    The iPhone 4 was maybe 4 months or more at limited stock levels. This alters the purchase cycle for upgraders. iPhone5 and iPad3 could become stretched beyond consumer acceptability.



    Apple needs to take control of assembly, cause they can't just contract more plants it will stretch build quality and secrecy too thin. Let alone having to tool them up. Existing assembly providers are evidently over capacity, I'm sure apple would have them make more if they could.



    Faster than Chinese and more secure, robotic reprogrammable assembly is the only way. That and buying supply chain for parts. Even more radical is in store Micro assembly.



    That said, it going to help now.. I dread what is about to happen when it hits international, we'll be kucky if it doesn't end up with 2-3 months wait.



    Like another user said, you can't ramp up production just to meet initial demand. Your production rates need to be at a level that is sustainable for the life of the product. Apple was extremely smart in releasing the iPad at this time of year. It allows enough time for supply and demand to equalize right about the time of the "going back to school" market and soon after allows the stock to begin building up for the Holiday season.



    I also believe the current wait times are due to the International launches being factored in -- well at least the European launch expected next week.
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  • Reply 51 of 97
    My company ordered an iPad2 on Monday (3/14/11) and was told initially it would ship in 3-4 weeks then later the same day was notified it would ship tomorrow (that's today!).
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  • Reply 52 of 97
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teunis View Post


    Wondering how much this will push back International shipping on release day.



    Possibly none. THey could be sitting on warehouses of units allocated for the international launch, refusing to do what they did last year by sending that stock to the US stores. Just to avoid last year.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rtkane View Post


    Anyway, Apple will run their lines like crazy trying to build up a decent supply for an initial launch, but there's just no realistic way to build capacity to meet the demand of a product launch like this.



    THis part is correct, because they can't judge the demand. In gross units or which sku.



    That said, there was another way to handle this and perhaps it is what Apple should do. ANd that's reservation only. No more walk ins. Period. No reservation, no item.



    They have computer systems that manage the genius bar based on staffing and business hours, they have computer systems that allow you to reserve items based on stock numbers. I'm sure they can modify that set up a system that could calculate needed stock and how many customers they can handle and send out the qualities (rounded up to the full master packs if that is how they ship) to cover exactly what those folks requested and 'pick up tickets' for how many folks they can push through in a day. They could even set up the system to freeze reservations the appropriate number of days out for shipping. If you want to change your reservation after that cut off, you must cancel and go back to the back of the line. Including day of. Those all mighty business customers. No walk ins for them either. They call, place an order and when quantity to cover it can be shipped to the store in excess of the regular reservations it is and they can come pick it up. Or better yet, just ship it straight to them. I'm sure they are holding back 10-15% of stock for online orders, toss in another 5-10% for businesses to have their own queue. Sure it means even they might wait but they've survived this long and given that they are perhaps like 20% of Apple's over all business, why should they get to go to the front of the line just cause.



    Yes it means that some folks will have to wait a little longer but what is better. Risking it over and over for nothing, or getting an email a few days later that says today is your day, you have from 9am-9pm to come in and get it and there is definitely one here for you.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post


    The iPhone 4 was maybe 4 months or more at limited stock levels. This alters the purchase cycle for upgraders. iPhone5 and iPad3 could become stretched beyond consumer acceptability.



    I think you might be thinking backwards, at least about the phones. There's not limited stock due to production at all. There's limited production because the sales drop during this period because everyone KNOWS there's going to be a new phone in June/July. They aren't buying now and missing out on something better.



    Same with the ipads probably. Once Christmas was over, sales likely went down because everyone KNEW there was going to be a new one around March/April.
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  • Reply 53 of 97
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 2,699member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xsu View Post


    Apple taking physical control of production would be the worst thing to happen for Apple. Apple has demonstrated through their success and failure that their core skill is in design and marketing, not actual manufacturing. Taking on production would seriously dull their focus and drag down their ROI to boot.



    Agreed for the most part. Apple's manufacturing needs have out grown anything that they would be able to produce on their own. It would take the rest of this decade to get their own plants up to the levels they need today. Besides, Apple pretty much controls the production of their products already. They don't own the manufacturing and fabrication plants, but I'm sure they have all the say in how things get made - You don't sign multi-billion dollar contracts without having complete oversight and ensuring you're getting the components you need, when you need them.
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  • Reply 54 of 97
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post


    Apple is entering an interesting phase. They have achieved a volume of sales with iPad, iphone4 and now ipad2 that exceeds the ability to produce. Their weak point is now assembly and materials.



    The iPhone 4 was maybe 4 months or more at limited stock levels. This alters the purchase cycle for upgraders. iPhone5 and iPad3 could become stretched beyond consumer acceptability.



    Apple needs to take control of assembly, cause they can't just contract more plants it will stretch build quality and secrecy too thin. Let alone having to tool them up. Existing assembly providers are evidently over capacity, I'm sure apple would have them make more if they could.



    Faster than Chinese and more secure, robotic reprogrammable assembly is the only way. That and buying supply chain for parts. Even more radical is in store Micro assembly.



    That said, it going to help now.. I dread what is about to happen when it hits international, we'll be kucky if it doesn't end up with 2-3 months wait.



    I'll agree with the statements I made in bold.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xsu View Post


    Apple taking physical control of production would be the worst thing to happen for Apple. Apple has demonstrated through their success and failure that their core skill is in design and marketing, not actual manufacturing. Taking on production would seriously dull their focus and drag down their ROI to boot.



    However, xsu is absolutely correct about going into manufacturing again: no way!



    As an unabashed APPL cheerleader and stockholder, on the production side, I really think they have to start thinking about DYI slots or backs for some of there iDevices. There are just too many SKUs right now.



    Also, if not better, is the idea of in-store micro assembly. Especially considering that certain stores, depending on their surrounding demographic, will sell more of one variety than the next. This way, Apple would retain the most of their mark-up for Nand sizes, rather than going the slot, DYI upgrade route.



    I was going to mention, regional micro-assembly stations could work... but the personnel costs involved are still too high in Europe and Stateside.



    Also, that dual-band world-chip is long overdue. I wonder what's holding it up? Probably sucks too much power(?).



    Whatever. My prediction of 1 million+ on launch weekend looks like it was too low; and my other one looking forward: 60 mill. in 2011, with an all or nothing double down bet of 100 million IF Apple can keep up with demand at some point in the near future... well... I said I was a cheerleader
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  • Reply 55 of 97
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    Possibly none. THey could be sitting on warehouses of units allocated for the international launch, refusing to do what they did last year by sending that stock to the US stores. Just to avoid last year.



    There is packaging info, writing on the back of the device, PSU adapters, and default language setups that would make it hard to resell to another country on short notice.
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  • Reply 56 of 97
    I was just talking to an Apple employee and he said in their pre-opening morning meeting, HQ said over 1MM IPad 2s have been sold so far. I'd expect an announcement by Apple today or would discount what that employee said. As far as the smart covers go, Red and Blue leather are selling out and Orange poly selling well. I wonder what the margins are in these covers?
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  • Reply 57 of 97
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    ....

    In the end, this is for 99% of folks just a toy. A cool toy but a toy none the less. So seriously get over the wait, the world is not going to end cause you didn't get your toy today. Consider the folks in Japan and Indonesia who need clean water, food, dry clothes, a place to sleep. That's something to freak about a few days wait over. That is life and death.



    Oh how wrong you are. I'm not basing my over-the-top predictions on consumer demand at all. I'm looking at enterprise, business integration, education, health and a number of other industries that very well could outpace consumer demand.



    Considering what this device enables doctors and other professionals in the field, it very well could be the device to define "life and death". Yes, just as ubiquitous and necessary as a working cell phone. Think about the entire amount of diagrams, manuals, service records, maps, etc. all at the engineers and safety workers fingertips in Japan.



    It fails to be "just a toy" at that point I would think.



    BTW: I was told just that (it's only a toy), so many times to my face back in 1984 with the advent of the Mac and DTP in regards to the printing industry and typesetting. Less than 5 years later I made a killing setting up those very people with new Macs and imagesetters. Actually, I'm already doing the same with the iPhone and iPad 1. iPad 2 is having me consider expanding my business already, and it's not even here yet.



    Yep. That "iPad toy" is a serious business machine in more ways than you could ever imagine.
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  • Reply 58 of 97
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    Anyone know if the Japanese quake will cause (or is causing) supply chain delays in the iPad? Does iFixit have a component source breakdown anywhere?





    I read that the factories are indefinitely closed that make TI ARM chips used in the PlayBook -- giving RIM a convenient excuse to delay the device until the OS and software are more refined.



    A lot of flash memory is made in Japan.



    A lot of LCD displays are made in Japan.



    A lot of RAM chips are made in Japan.



    A lot of other circuits used in smart phones and tablets are made in Japan,



    The NVIDIA Tegra 2 may be made in Japan -- used in Xoom and Galaxy 10 * (and other coming Tabs).



    One effect is that there is a dramatic rise in prices for most electronic components -- threatening device margins, sale prices and availability.



    * It is interesting that the (Korean) Samsung Galaxy 10 Tab uses a NVDIA Tegra 2 CPU instead of a Samsung chip as used in the Galaxy tab. Sammy makes the A4 and A5 for Apple.
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  • Reply 59 of 97
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Toyin View Post


    Poor Motorola. I'd be just a tad worried about Xoom sales at this point.



    For sure! I keep seeing the Motorola Xoom commercials running constantly on T.V. as if in a desperate plea to 'buy me, buy me' ........on the other hand, not a single iPad 2 commercial in sight.

    I went to my local Best Buy, where they had a pair of iPad 2s (one white, one black) on display. People were all over it, took me a good 30 minute wait to even play with it. So I went over to the Xoom, then the Tablet, then the color Nook first - no one wanted to see those
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  • Reply 60 of 97
    I was fortunate to get my iPAD on day one. (Well I guess most people that have it got it on day one) anyway, I went after work to Northpointe Mall in Alpharetta, GA. I got off at 4pm and got to the mall at 4:30pm. I went to the usual spot that Apple makes users wait but there were no lines....until i got to the store. The lines were going to other direction.



    There must have been atleast 300 people and they were divided in 3 lines. I waited in line for about 2:30 hours total and it was worth it. The more I am using it the more I enjoy it. I have the ipad1 but this this new pad seems smaller because if the thinness. And the graphics coupled with the speed are amazing.



    While I was in line my "buddy" was yelling in my ear about how he was getting the zoom because it was better and I was like "Ok, enjoy". He was kinda lost as to why I didnt argue with him. I seem to get a lot of people that want to argue as to why they should get a pad as opposed to something else. I say get what you want. Whatever makes you happy (even though I have a majority of reviews showing the the iPAD2 tops the zoom ;p)
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