Rumor: Apple may not release cloud-based iOS 5 until this fall

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  • Reply 101 of 135
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    My simplest answer is that Apple is in a position to dominate the tablet market (post pc industry) for years to come.



    Their strategy should be to control that market by providing attractive, affordable solutions that are only available from Apple.



    Their tactics should be to gain and maintain the high ground before the competition can muddy the waters -- the sooner, the better!





    As to FCS -- we differ on the UI.



    .



    Apple IS doing exactly what you say. The difference we are having is that we disagree on what that has to be.



    As for the UI of FCS, to each his own, but I can say that editors think it's one of the best.
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  • Reply 102 of 135
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    They can't do much about the processors until both ARM and Imagination come out with new designs. Apple's CPU is just a customized version of an ARM standard design which they license. The imagination gpu is Imagination's design. Until the next designs come out, there isn't much Apple or other companies can do. Nvidia has shown a 4 core version, but that's all they've done so far is to show it. September is just 6 months away. Apple would be rushed to make a major design effort and go to manufacturing with all the production lines already running at max.



    I have no doubt they're working on two generations of devices at once, and have a third they're just sketching out. But the second won't be near finishing until shortly before production begins, a month or so before release. We know Apple runs lean teams. Whether they have enough engineers to come this close to completion of the second design shortly after release of the first is questionable. Whether they would want to is an additional question.



    If they've got two models that are current at the same time, and one has a much higher Rez and better performance, fragmentation is something that has happened. It will be out of their hands once developers, both hardware and software get to it.



    We can see that from some games that are out now. Real Racing 2 will have true 1080p output from the iPad 2. And it will use the iPad as a controller. How cool is that? Can't be done on the iPad 1. But that the olde model. What would happen if it were a current one?



    People would be ticked, at the least. They understand that older models don't get the best, but if they're current, it's different. I don't think people would be happy.



    I defer to your knowledge of the hardware issues -- it may not be doable.



    On the marketing side, i believe that the normal (non-techie) consumer buys a product for what it delivers -- especially at these price points.



    The techie is always pissed at eveything!



    .
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  • Reply 103 of 135
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I didn't say that -- retina iPad is only 1 feature -- one step on the path forward.



    I do believe that Apple knows where it is going with this in the next 3 years.



    The iPad 2 is not the end game -- only a small step for ConsumerKind!



    .



    Uh, Dick, now I think you're going off the deep end.
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  • Reply 104 of 135
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Uh, Dick, now I think you're going off the deep end.



    Could be... Hopefully we'll revisit this topic again... in each of the next 3 years.



    .
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  • Reply 105 of 135
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I defer to your knowledge of the hardware issues -- it may not be doable.



    On the marketing side, i believe that the normal (non-techie) consumer buys a product for what it delivers -- especially at these price points.



    The techie is always pissed at eveything!



    .



    Thanks for that.



    Apple is selling a culture, an experience, an all enfolding universe of hardware performance, beauty, apps, music, video, and third party equipment. No other company can hope to offer the same.



    This is what sells Apple's stuff. But still, they have to compete on price with phones, hence the $99, now $49 3GS. Tablets may be different to a certain extent. Their major quality competitors will not be able to offer a price differential that's meaningful. Samsung, at the CTIA show, last month, revealed the pricing for their new 8.9 and 10.1 tablets. The 10.1 WiFi is priced the same as the iPad, at least in the two configs mentioned, while they struggled to get the 8.9 model a whole $30 cheaper. Why bother?



    So now they will have three models to confuse everyone with. And the 10.1 won't be out until June, while the 8.9 won't be out until—sometime this summer. A threat? Not likely.



    The Xoom has now been shown to be junk. When it first came out, some wags were saying that the iPad 2 wouldn't be able to compete with the mighty Tegra 2 chip. But the iPad, excuse me for saying it, zoomed past it in performance. Now we hear it will be discontinued in June! Too bad. But they might be rushing out a new one to better compete with the iPad2. Good luck!



    The HP WebOS tablet, the Touchpad (see how cleverly they took two names from Apple and combined them?) won't be out until June, and looks to perform no better than the Xoom. And can they convince people to buy a WebOS device?



    The RIM Playbook (sounds like an NFL device), costs the same as the 16GB iPad, but has a 7" screen running at 1024 x 600. Apps? Good luck! It will have almost nothing for it's new OS, QNX. So developers will be able to recompile Android apps for it. See, that's what they're calling Android compatibility. But it gets better! It will only run recompiled 2.3 apps. Yup! Phone apps. There's even more goodness, but I'll leave that.



    There will likely be one or two more strong (ha!) competitors, but who?



    Then there will be the cheap Android models. They will cost about half of what the 16GB WiFi model costs, more or less. They will work ok. They might or might not use Honeycomb, so they might be, or might not be able to run Android tablet apps. They will be slow by 2011 standards, and will not be versatile, but people looking for something cheap will buy them.



    Are they Apple competitors? Sure! They will take some sales away from Apple, and more from the big Android tablet makers. But Apple won't be competing with them unless they get significant



    Overall, is this much of a problem? Not this year. But apple will have a lot more going for them next year as well.
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  • Reply 106 of 135
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Could be... Hopefully we'll revisit this topic again... in each of the next 3 years.



    .



    We will.
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  • Reply 107 of 135
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post




    Overall, is this much of a problem? Not this year. But apple will have a lot more going for them next year as well.



    The closest tablet competitor to Apple might very well be Microsoft. They're supposedly taking their time and not releasing until 2012. They're not just jumping into the market with complete garbage like all of the current manufacturers are doing. I don't particularly like Microsoft, but they seem to be smarter than the other competitors at the moment.
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  • Reply 108 of 135
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    The closest tablet competitor to Apple might very well be Microsoft. They're supposedly taking their time and not releasing until 2012. They're not just jumping into the market with complete garbage like all of the current manufacturers are doing. I don't particularly like Microsoft, but they seem to be smarter than the other competitors at the moment.



    You are right on!



    MS hasa way of coming late to the dance and leaving with the Prom Queen -- underestimate them at your own risk.



    .
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  • Reply 109 of 135
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Yeah! W000T The iPad is just the beginning of something quite big. I mean, I'm a geek, but I'm old-skool by now, still sometimes preferring my MacBook/Pro or my mouse and keyboard for PC games.



    Sometimes I just pull out my iPad to look at it, admire it, wipe it down a bit then put it back in the drawer.



    Where it is indispensable is the morning breakfast read. Or looking up something about the game I'm playing on my PC when I'm actually playing the game on the PC. During the viewing of football (soccer) on the ol' TV the iPad is quite useful too... sometimes too much so, I get distracted from the game on TV. Another use - indispensable for when you're reading up iFixit while doing something with your Mac. How did we use iFixit before the iPad and iPhone? Printing out all the steps???



    For those starting out computing with an iPad, once those go to 13-15" or dual-page 12" or huge 26" in the post-PC world... Hard to imagine what things will be like. It's madness the next 10 years! I wish I were sane enough to process it all!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dick applebaum View Post


    my gut tells me apple's post-pc offering will be steve's ultimate glory, and sweet revenge to all who opposed him.



    The key is the ipad -- the iphone is only a necessary step along the way.



    I believe within 2 years, the ipad line will be the dominant apple device in sales, profit and customer acceptance.



    My gut says the time is now -- and it's balls to the wall!



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  • Reply 110 of 135
    carniphagecarniphage Posts: 1,984member
    Everyone talks about notifications. I guess because they are currently bad, and have been for a long time.



    But it does not take a major OS release to improve the notification system. The underlying technology to deliver, present and dismiss messages is already there. It should not affect 3rd party software at all. At most there might be a new API to deliver richer notifications.



    So if it's not notifications, what's the big deal. Why a delay?



    The elephant in the room is tethering.



    The iPad is supposed to be a post-PC product. And yet it is one that requires you to own a PC to set it up. Back it up and so on.



    Want to buy your parents an iPad? You can't unless you buy them a Mac or PC first.



    To de-tether the iPad would require two major elements from Apple.

    1) A major change to all iOS software that relies on the mothership-PC running iTunes.

    2) Some external entity to take the place of that iTunes PC.



    I think (2) is a set of remote services (aka Cloud) that would work over the internet, and intelligently cope with WiFi or cellular connections. I think this is the mooted MobileMe upgrade we have been hearing about. iOS5 should allow all of the following to be done without the need for an iTunes connection.



    * upgrade of the OS.

    * moving and removing media, photographs and files. Management of content.

    * management of all aspects of the Mobile Me account.

    * backup of application data and settings.



    This change is essential. For the iPad to grow, it has to sell to an audience that doesn't have a PC, or users who want to replace their PC. Or users who just do not want to cope with this tiresome mothership/satellite arrangement. Even for the PC owning savvy users, wireless syncing and saying goodbye to iTunes would be a blessing.



    But from an engineering point of view, the change is not as trivial as updating notifications. It requires not only big software changes in the iPad, it requires an external infrastructure too.

    In an ideal world, these changes would be ready in time for the iPhone 5. But Apple don't ship until products are ready. And given the pathetic state of the competition right now, Apple has an opportunity to take a few months to get this right.



    C.
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  • Reply 111 of 135
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    There are already third party apps out there which control Logic, or any other DAW out there. Apple may or may not choose to come out with their own app, but here's a couple that are available: First pic is AC-7, second pic is TouchOsc.



    The whole concept and customisability of TouchOSC is quite mind-blowing, actually. It's almost too futuristic for me to wrap my mind around it. That and my DJ friends who constantly resist anything other than the trusty CDJs for spinning.



    Tech is moving too fast, sometimes. I can remember the days too clearly when everyone was complaining about DJs using CDs and not vinyl! I swear it wasn't *that* long ago. Now it's DJs complaining about those who use laptops and iPads to spin!



    And I have to stop using exclamation marks!
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  • Reply 112 of 135
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    You know, I think Steve saw that he might not have long on this earth and made sure the iPhone and iPad became a reality. What we're seeing now is *everyone else* trying to catch up to the vision, including Steve and Apple themselves. It requires serious thinking and rethinking which I'm afraid does sometimes need Steve 100% on it (to sort out the tethering and related issues).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post


    The elephant in the room is tethering.



    The iPad is supposed to be a post-PC product. And yet it is one that requires you to own a PC to set it up. Back it up and so on.



    Want to buy your parents an iPad? You can't unless you buy them a Mac or PC first.



    To de-tether the iPad would require two major elements from Apple.

    1) A major change to all iOS software that relies on the mothership-PC running iTunes.

    2) Some external entity to take the place of that iTunes PC.



    I think (2) is a set of remote services (aka Cloud) that would work over the internet, and intelligently cope with WiFi or cellular connections. I think this is the mooted MobileMe upgrade we have been hearing about. iOS5 should allow all of the following to be done without the need for an iTunes connection.



    * upgrade of the OS.

    * moving and removing media, photographs and files. Management of content.

    * management of all aspects of the Mobile Me account.

    * backup of application data and settings.



    This change is essential. For the iPad to grow, it has to sell to an audience that doesn't have a PC, or users who want to replace their PC. Or users who just do not want to cope with this tiresome mothership/satellite arrangement. Even for the PC owning savvy users, wireless syncing and saying goodbye to iTunes would be a blessing.



    But from an engineering point of view, the change is not as trivial as updating notifications. It requires not only big software changes in the iPad, it requires an external infrastructure too.

    In an ideal world, these changes would be ready in time for the iPhone 5. But Apple don't ship until products are ready. And given the pathetic state of the competition right now, Apple has an opportunity to take a few months to get this right.



    C.



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  • Reply 113 of 135
    jonamacjonamac Posts: 388member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I've got a Canon 5DmkII. It's a pretty good camera, but a colleague and I have been beta testing Leaf backs since they first came out. If I were a landscape photog. I would much rather use one of those as my friend does. Earlier, last year, we tested their new 80MP back. Now, THAT'S a landscape back.



    I hate you Mel Gross!!
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  • Reply 114 of 135
    jonamacjonamac Posts: 388member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Apple IS doing exactly what you say. The difference we are having is that we disagree on what that has to be.



    As for the UI of FCS, to each his own, but I can say that editors think it's one of the best.



    I'd tend to agree with your argument on this. All this touch screen goodness is very pretty, but what would it actually do to facilitate or speed up tasks in FCS?



    I'd also have concerns about the near-100% reliability that the link between the devices would need to have to make this interesting to a professional. It would have to be physically tethered to make it reliable enough for this kind of use.



    I just don't see the benefits myself.
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  • Reply 115 of 135
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PXT View Post


    Apple worry me with their tendency to delete data during data migration and sync.



    Do I want them to try doing that with more of my data?



    Glad I'm not the only one to lose my data (usually contacts) during sync. Any remedy for this?
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  • Reply 116 of 135
    jonamacjonamac Posts: 388member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    You are right on!



    MS hasa way of coming late to the dance and leaving with the Prom Queen -- underestimate them at your own risk.



    .



    I'm struggling to think of examples of this. MS isn't what it once was. Half the top brass have jumped ship and its reputation has taken a battering in recent years. I wouldn't write them off, but I don't see them having the creativity and vision to make a huge impact on all this any time soon. WP7 wasn't a success and it hacked off a lot of WP6.5 developers (who got royally screwed by MS). I guess we'll see, but I'm not worried.



    The Zune didn't hurt Apple, it didn't even come out over here in the UK.



    Add to that that Steve Ballmer is in charge and I think Apple are safe for the time being!
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  • Reply 117 of 135
    djsherlydjsherly Posts: 1,031member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jonamac View Post


    I'd tend to agree with your argument on this. All this touch screen goodness is very pretty, but what would it actually do to facilitate or speed up tasks in FCS?



    I would go one step further and ask, "what does touch do to facilitate or speed up any task. Don't get me wrong. I love my iPad, but let's just say I'm not setting any productivity records with it. I am presently using it heavily to mark up pdfs for study and and to do that and summarise at the same time is pretty much unworkable solely using the iPad.



    It makes the whole experience far more organic but I would side with Mel on this one (as it appears, you do).



    One point that immediately sprung to mind on this rumour was the Apple policy of software updates for hardware. I seem to recall it is n+2 (ie, iDevice is released with 3.n, it will be updated to 5.n). The sort of move posited in the OP suggests a shortened support lifetime for the next iPhone. Does this make sense?
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  • Reply 118 of 135
    djsherlydjsherly Posts: 1,031member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jonamac View Post


    I'm struggling to think of examples of this. MS isn't what it once was. Half the top brass have jumped ship and its reputation has taken a battering in recent years. I wouldn't write them off, but I don't see them having the creativity and vision to make a huge impact on all this any time soon. WP7 wasn't a success and it hacked off a lot of WP6.5 developers (who got royally screwed by MS). I guess we'll see, but I'm not worried.



    Interesting that you wrote of WP7 in the past tense. I think it's early days yet and my initial impressions of the interface were pretty positive. I found it to be a thoughtful and task based approach to UI. It's just a matter of time before we find out whether grids of icons are a preferable paradigm.
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  • Reply 119 of 135
    shaoshao Posts: 39member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by poke View Post


    The acceleration of disinformation about iOS 5 probably means we're going to see it soon. Same thing happened before the iPad 2 was unveiled.



    i'm not sure what definitions of information, disinformation, and rumours you're using. As i see it you have no way of knowing what's what. Therefore it's all rumour, and nothing more.



    on topic, i think really, apple are coming a little late to the social cloud side of things, and even then they don't have a proven track record of doing cloud computing or storage. The features that are rumoured for iOS5 all appear in other vendors products, whether in the mobile OS itself, or through apps. Apple will need to do something very special to sway public opinion to garner trust and support, and more importantly to get us to move away from existing solutions that work really really well.



    tldr; integrate with twitter,facebook,google, etc, and be extensible out to future products or simply don't bother.
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  • Reply 120 of 135
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,846member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    If what you are saying were true, then people wouldn't be standing in lines to buy one. They would be bitching about how bad the display is. But actually, the display is great. The new one is even better than the old. For one, it's brighter. It's also warmer. My biggest gripe about the old one was that my meter measured it as 7,200k. The new one is closer to the standard 6,500k, about 6,300k. It's noticeable immediately. The blacks are also better due to the warmth. The old one's blacks were weaker.



    That's so interesting. I think that the original iPad display is great. I read all (scientific) papers on the iPad now, I haven't printed one off for ages. I mark papers up too. I've given classes from my iPad (since last year) but would greatly appreciate the mirroring capability of the new one, reason enough for buying. Please keep thinking up reasons for me to buy an iPad 2, I'm sure that I could find a perfectly legitimate use for my existing one, although to be fair, it is in much wider circulation at home now.



    By the way, being able to charge the iPad while driving a VGA screen would be nice too, I know that it can be done on the HDMI output adapter. \
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