I predict that within 5 years Apple and MS will be in the same place with respect to their OS, they're just taking different ways to get there. I'll bet that Apple eventually merges iOS and MacOS X, but then keeps a version of OSX that they call "pro" or "developer" or whatever.
You'll notice that, at no point in history has Apple offered more than one consumer version of an OS. There is simply Mac OS (versions 1-X)... Granted, since OS X came aboard they have had a "Server" version of their OS, but since Lion will implement all consumer/server functionality back into a single OS release, I think it's fair to say that Apple's strategy doesn't involve selling one piece of software in several different packages, anytime soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by steftheref
I'm talking about that mobile genius Steve Ballmer! With him calling the shots how can they possibly go wrong?
I hope they never get rid of this idiot... Gates giveth and Balmer taketh away :P
ARM Windows 8 running the desktop UI makes zero sense to me.
It make sense if ARM decides to take on Intel on the desktop. ARM based servers have been cropping up.
Wish IBM would get back in the ring with PowerPC chips, I'm pretty sure they can shrink their die process under 32nm by now.
Sorry, I should have clarified that one.
ARM on the Windows 8 "desktop" doesn't make sense because of the confusion it would cause consumers.
Could you imagine what it would be like if someone could walk into a retailer and purchase a notebook that was called Windows, looked and behaved exactly like Windows and was sold as Windows... but was unable to run any existing Windows applications?
I think ARM on Windows tablets and phones makes a lot of sense as they would be running the Metro UI and run applications exclusively from the Windows Marketplace (if they really do call it the "Windows App Store" Ballmer deserves a kick in the stones) so the requirement for legacy support wouldn't exist.
2. If M/soft can successfully get consumers to embrace the cloud they could conceivably light-load the OS on the device(s) which then set the connection to the cloud for the interface and other hardware configuration parameters - esssentially the Google Chrome OS approach - and only the elements ported for a given device config and interface are loaded.
Synchronization with the Cloud is definitely going to be baked directly into Win 8, however at the moment the presumption is that they will leverage their existing Windows Live properties...
I can't see Microsoft doing something as huge as shifting most of the Windows 8 client side to the cloud... but anything is possible I suppose
Hardly a surprise Microsoft is going down this path. Years ago, computers meant desktops and servers. Over time, it's expanded to laptops, phones, tablets, who know what might be next?
I think MS are keen to go this route not so much because Apple has (clearly they must think Apple has taken the right approach) but because they don't want to lose their OEM customers. The iPhone and iPad are one thing and no question both have hurt Microsoft. Neither will put MS out of business, though. The bigger threat is if they lose their current established base. HP's move to WebOS was the real shot fired across the bow of Microsoft's ship. If Microsoft doesn't plug that leak soon they will be in trouble.
Some people seem to be asking why you'd want an app to run on multiple form factors? The best successful example is Safari. Microsoft needs to revamp their whole OS so that applications can be created under Windows which are portable the way Safari, Mail, iCal, etc. are portable. I don't think they have that today but need it badly to keep things like WebOS from taking over some form factors.
I get the eventual move to get a desktop OS on ARM but I can’t fathom that even MS would still think that a desktop OS on a tablet makes sense.
Yep, easier said than done. It is all in the compiler. Some have speculated that Apple actually has a secret windows port compiler that they use for iTunes, QuickTime and Safari. There has also been some speculation that no one at Microsoft actually understands the core code of Windows since Simonyi left.
At the most basic level, this is Microsoft doing what Apple already did with MacOS X. Instead of building different OSs from different hardware it builds one core OS (Windows 8 or MacOS X) and then builds what is needed for the different user interfaces on top of that (Windows 8 tablet/phone or iOS). The benefit is that you aren't multiplying the work of maintaining the trickiest stuff (kernel, new hardware support) and can focus on the differences in UI and higher level features.
That's my impression, though I'm seeing from posts some other more specific ideas like make App bundles (also a MacOS X thing, though not uniquely so).
With this and recent Adobe news, I'm loving it. The new hardware trends like cooler Smart Phones and Tablets that Apple and Google are championing are stirring up the innovation and fight-for-your-life work ethic in some behemoth companies that haven't had to do much to profit lately. Good for everyone, so far.
You want different UI's for different devices. Sometimes the functionality of the app will be totally different (as with Photoshop), sometimes it will be the same, but most of the time at least some of the functionality is the same and can benefit from shared code.
Why do you guys keep on mentioning "Photoshop"... as if that hog of a program, along with all Adobe products (lets add Autodesk stuff too)... will set the bar whether the OS is useful/successful or not.
Anyone want to take a guess at what THE most popular suite on a MS machine is? And if they get ONLY that right, it would be a success in their eyes, and a large amount of their enterprise clients.
I abhor MS... but please... be a little bit more objective and imaginative of what's important for MS right now, as they're slowly sliding into the black hole.
in early builds of Windows 8, this Ribbon UI is only half-finished and, frankly, of dubious value
Experiencing the difference in UI between Office '03 and Office '07 I'd always figured the ribbon interface was more or less a gesture of surrender to the competition (google apps et. al.) by MS. What else could such a 90° turn in usability represent?
Microsoft, like a chess player who has resorted to pure defense, needs to drastically change their strategy or quit, because you cannot win by playing defense only.
ALL Microsoft does anymore is play catch up. All of their "new" products, technologies, and strategies are designed to compete with (read, catch up to) someone else's dominant lead.
Like a chess player who makes no attempt at offense, eventually they will spend all their time and resources defending what they have, all the while losing a piece here, an advantage there.
Nice post! Up to a point...
It's close to what I was just going to write, in that if MS had any balls... instead of Ballmers... they would tell enterprise to go suck it!
"Go ahead and stay with WinXP and all of your legacy stuff... we're moving forward with or with out you. We are NOT going to let our business wither away waiting for you guys, because it's evident you're on some sort of 20-year upgrade cycle, that we can not survive catering to."
With the reply of "bite me"... in return: "your biting yourselves just fine without any help from us".
Besides... who are all of these legacy businesses going to turn to? Google? Yeah right!
Quote:
And don't get me started about Gartner. Why, oh WHY does anyone listen to anything they have to say?
For 20+ years I (and most people I know) have been *at least* as accurate as they are in guessing what the future holds - and that advice is free.
Speaking of free, I just created a new motto for them - for free:
Gartner.
Selling guesses for lots of money to CEOs who have heard their name.
Actually Gartner is probably correct, because Nokia will be adding WinMo to all of their phones shortly, and Nokia holds a huge share of world-wide market-share. WinMo will replace "feature phones".
* I actually liked Windows server products, NT4 and Win2000, and XP certainly wasn't all that bad. But over the last 6-7 years, just one misstep after another, and keeping that nasty legacy crap-registry clean (among other things), is time I use these days making money with Apple products
ARM Windows 8 running the desktop UI makes zero sense to me.
I don't know how the sales figures are now (I assume they have been seriously impacted by iPad), but if netbooks still sell in any volume, you could see the argument for having Windows running on ARM instead of using the Atom which seems to be in most of those things.
If I understand it correctly, the Objective C backend for iOS does not support garbage collection, whereas the Objective C backend for Mac OS does support garbage collection as an option. The point I am making here is that, even the 'core OS' underneath iOS is tailored, even though the OSs have many shared components.
I think the comments about UIs serving different purposes is spot on. It makes no sense to merge touch and the mouse pointer. The accuracy required is different.
If it is really true that MS wants to create an overall scalable structure across such a wide range of devices…well, I am awaiting to be impressed. IMO, it is an overly ambitious goal. MS already is weighed down by excessive complexity in its code base.
That's not even remotely accurate. It's basically the opposite.
This is Microsoft accepting that you can't shoe-horn the Windows UI into every device (like they tried to with tablets and phones for a decade) and that each different device has a different user experience demands a custom UI built for it.
That is not what I mean.
To Microsoft, everything looks like a PC.
I can't wait to defrag my Windows tablet's C\ drive, reboot my tablet every patch Tuesday and fix registry errors. Which antivirus package should I get? Oh crap, the last patch broke one of my programs. Oh, there are 2 different copies of this DLL floating around in separate directories. I see what happened: my PATH variable was changed by the last program I installed. Hmm...should I uninstall this shared component? The uninstaller says no other program is using it... Ah, the full Windows experience on a tablet. I can't wait
I can't wait to defrag my Windows tablet's C\ drive, reboot my tablet every patch Tuesday and fix registry errors. Which antivirus package should I get? Oh crap, the last patch broke one of my programs. Oh, there are 2 different copies of this DLL floating around in separate directories. I see what happened: my PATH variable was changed by the last program I installed. Hmm...should I uninstall this shared component? The uninstaller says no other program is using it... Ah, the full Windows experience on a tablet. I can't wait
Spoken like someone who hasn't laid a finger on a Windows Phone 7 device. I challenge you to try it - the OS is far more polished, far more stable and far more reliable than iOS ever has been.
If Microsoft is planning to build on this for future devices, then count me in as a potential customer.
Spoken like someone who hasn't laid a finger on a Windows Phone 7 device. I challenge you to try it - the OS is far more polished, far more stable and far more reliable than iOS ever has been.
If Microsoft is planning to build on this for future devices, then count me in as a potential customer.
I can't say I've used a Windows Phone 7 a lot, but what I have seen of it has impressed me a lot. I don't know about more stable than iOS, since I've never had a stability problem with iOS, but I liked the UI of WP7. I think it shows some interesting things and seems like a fairly nice halfway house between the anarchy of an Android UI, and the rigid simplicity of iOS.
Personally I wish Microsoft well with it. I've been using Windows 7 in Parallels a lot of late and think that's not too bad. I wouldn't say they have caught up with Apple, but I'm happy to see them getting close, if only because I believe it will spur Apple onto greater things.
Comments
I predict that within 5 years Apple and MS will be in the same place with respect to their OS, they're just taking different ways to get there. I'll bet that Apple eventually merges iOS and MacOS X, but then keeps a version of OSX that they call "pro" or "developer" or whatever.
You'll notice that, at no point in history has Apple offered more than one consumer version of an OS. There is simply Mac OS (versions 1-X)... Granted, since OS X came aboard they have had a "Server" version of their OS, but since Lion will implement all consumer/server functionality back into a single OS release, I think it's fair to say that Apple's strategy doesn't involve selling one piece of software in several different packages, anytime soon.
I'm talking about that mobile genius Steve Ballmer! With him calling the shots how can they possibly go wrong?
I hope they never get rid of this idiot... Gates giveth and Balmer taketh away :P
You'll notice that, at no point in history has Apple offered more than one consumer version of an OS.
MS might even sell more boxed versions of Windows than Apple sells base models of Mac.
ARM Windows 8 running the desktop UI makes zero sense to me.
It make sense if ARM decides to take on Intel on the desktop. ARM based servers have been cropping up.
Wish IBM would get back in the ring with PowerPC chips, I'm pretty sure they can shrink their die process under 32nm by now.
Sorry, I should have clarified that one.
ARM on the Windows 8 "desktop" doesn't make sense because of the confusion it would cause consumers.
Could you imagine what it would be like if someone could walk into a retailer and purchase a notebook that was called Windows, looked and behaved exactly like Windows and was sold as Windows... but was unable to run any existing Windows applications?
I think ARM on Windows tablets and phones makes a lot of sense as they would be running the Metro UI and run applications exclusively from the Windows Marketplace (if they really do call it the "Windows App Store" Ballmer deserves a kick in the stones) so the requirement for legacy support wouldn't exist.
Translation - "a pig in every pot"
2. If M/soft can successfully get consumers to embrace the cloud they could conceivably light-load the OS on the device(s) which then set the connection to the cloud for the interface and other hardware configuration parameters - esssentially the Google Chrome OS approach - and only the elements ported for a given device config and interface are loaded.
Synchronization with the Cloud is definitely going to be baked directly into Win 8, however at the moment the presumption is that they will leverage their existing Windows Live properties...
I can't see Microsoft doing something as huge as shifting most of the Windows 8 client side to the cloud... but anything is possible I suppose
I think MS are keen to go this route not so much because Apple has (clearly they must think Apple has taken the right approach) but because they don't want to lose their OEM customers. The iPhone and iPad are one thing and no question both have hurt Microsoft. Neither will put MS out of business, though. The bigger threat is if they lose their current established base. HP's move to WebOS was the real shot fired across the bow of Microsoft's ship. If Microsoft doesn't plug that leak soon they will be in trouble.
Some people seem to be asking why you'd want an app to run on multiple form factors? The best successful example is Safari. Microsoft needs to revamp their whole OS so that applications can be created under Windows which are portable the way Safari, Mail, iCal, etc. are portable. I don't think they have that today but need it badly to keep things like WebOS from taking over some form factors.
I get the eventual move to get a desktop OS on ARM but I can’t fathom that even MS would still think that a desktop OS on a tablet makes sense.
Yep, easier said than done. It is all in the compiler. Some have speculated that Apple actually has a secret windows port compiler that they use for iTunes, QuickTime and Safari. There has also been some speculation that no one at Microsoft actually understands the core code of Windows since Simonyi left.
That's my impression, though I'm seeing from posts some other more specific ideas like make App bundles (also a MacOS X thing, though not uniquely so).
With this and recent Adobe news, I'm loving it. The new hardware trends like cooler Smart Phones and Tablets that Apple and Google are championing are stirring up the innovation and fight-for-your-life work ethic in some behemoth companies that haven't had to do much to profit lately. Good for everyone, so far.
You want different UI's for different devices. Sometimes the functionality of the app will be totally different (as with Photoshop), sometimes it will be the same, but most of the time at least some of the functionality is the same and can benefit from shared code.
Why do you guys keep on mentioning "Photoshop"... as if that hog of a program, along with all Adobe products (lets add Autodesk stuff too)... will set the bar whether the OS is useful/successful or not.
Anyone want to take a guess at what THE most popular suite on a MS machine is? And if they get ONLY that right, it would be a success in their eyes, and a large amount of their enterprise clients.
I abhor MS... but please... be a little bit more objective and imaginative of what's important for MS right now, as they're slowly sliding into the black hole.
in early builds of Windows 8, this Ribbon UI is only half-finished and, frankly, of dubious value
Experiencing the difference in UI between Office '03 and Office '07 I'd always figured the ribbon interface was more or less a gesture of surrender to the competition (google apps et. al.) by MS. What else could such a 90° turn in usability represent?
Does this mean the same for Windows?
Whatever happened to chess players?
Microsoft, like a chess player who has resorted to pure defense, needs to drastically change their strategy or quit, because you cannot win by playing defense only.
ALL Microsoft does anymore is play catch up. All of their "new" products, technologies, and strategies are designed to compete with (read, catch up to) someone else's dominant lead.
Like a chess player who makes no attempt at offense, eventually they will spend all their time and resources defending what they have, all the while losing a piece here, an advantage there.
Nice post! Up to a point...
It's close to what I was just going to write, in that if MS had any balls... instead of Ballmers... they would tell enterprise to go suck it!
"Go ahead and stay with WinXP and all of your legacy stuff... we're moving forward with or with out you. We are NOT going to let our business wither away waiting for you guys, because it's evident you're on some sort of 20-year upgrade cycle, that we can not survive catering to."
With the reply of "bite me"... in return: "your biting yourselves just fine without any help from us".
Besides... who are all of these legacy businesses going to turn to? Google? Yeah right!
And don't get me started about Gartner. Why, oh WHY does anyone listen to anything they have to say?
For 20+ years I (and most people I know) have been *at least* as accurate as they are in guessing what the future holds - and that advice is free.
Speaking of free, I just created a new motto for them - for free:
Gartner.
Selling guesses for lots of money to CEOs who have heard their name.
Actually Gartner is probably correct, because Nokia will be adding WinMo to all of their phones shortly, and Nokia holds a huge share of world-wide market-share. WinMo will replace "feature phones".
* I actually liked Windows server products, NT4 and Win2000, and XP certainly wasn't all that bad. But over the last 6-7 years, just one misstep after another, and keeping that nasty legacy crap-registry clean (among other things), is time I use these days making money with Apple products
ARM Windows 8 running the desktop UI makes zero sense to me.
I don't know how the sales figures are now (I assume they have been seriously impacted by iPad), but if netbooks still sell in any volume, you could see the argument for having Windows running on ARM instead of using the Atom which seems to be in most of those things.
I think the comments about UIs serving different purposes is spot on. It makes no sense to merge touch and the mouse pointer. The accuracy required is different.
If it is really true that MS wants to create an overall scalable structure across such a wide range of devices…well, I am awaiting to be impressed. IMO, it is an overly ambitious goal. MS already is weighed down by excessive complexity in its code base.
That's not even remotely accurate. It's basically the opposite.
This is Microsoft accepting that you can't shoe-horn the Windows UI into every device (like they tried to with tablets and phones for a decade) and that each different device has a different user experience demands a custom UI built for it.
That is not what I mean.
To Microsoft, everything looks like a PC.
I can't wait to defrag my Windows tablet's C
That is not what I mean.
To Microsoft, everything looks like a PC.
I can't wait to defrag my Windows tablet's C
Spoken like someone who hasn't laid a finger on a Windows Phone 7 device. I challenge you to try it - the OS is far more polished, far more stable and far more reliable than iOS ever has been.
If Microsoft is planning to build on this for future devices, then count me in as a potential customer.
Spoken like someone who hasn't laid a finger on a Windows Phone 7 device. I challenge you to try it - the OS is far more polished, far more stable and far more reliable than iOS ever has been.
If Microsoft is planning to build on this for future devices, then count me in as a potential customer.
I can't say I've used a Windows Phone 7 a lot, but what I have seen of it has impressed me a lot. I don't know about more stable than iOS, since I've never had a stability problem with iOS, but I liked the UI of WP7. I think it shows some interesting things and seems like a fairly nice halfway house between the anarchy of an Android UI, and the rigid simplicity of iOS.
Personally I wish Microsoft well with it. I've been using Windows 7 in Parallels a lot of late and think that's not too bad. I wouldn't say they have caught up with Apple, but I'm happy to see them getting close, if only because I believe it will spur Apple onto greater things.