So we can pretty much guess Verizon's iPhone sales from all these numbers, right?
18.65 mils of iPhone sold last quarter. 41% of total sales profit from U.S. (assuming total Mac sales profit is lot smaller than total iPhone sales). 3.6 mils of iPhone activated by AT&T. So the math goes like (18.65 * 0.41) - 3.6 = 4.04 mils.
If its not over 4mils I do believe Vzw will have roughly the same iphone activation number comparing to AT&T
"According to a study by the International Data Corporation (IDC), the worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow by 49.2% in the year 2011. In 2010, venders shipped 303.4 million smartphones, and that number is expected to climb to over 450 million this year."
Extrapolating from the past two quarters, and assuming a launch of the new iPhone by Sept., I'd guess perhaps 90 million iPhones to be sold in calendar year 2011? If so that would be about 20% of the total volume predicted by IDC. Not bad for one company.
"According to a study by the International Data Corporation (IDC), the worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow by 49.2% in the year 2011. In 2010, venders shipped 303.4 million smartphones, and that number is expected to climb to over 450 million this year."
Extrapolating from the past two quarters, and assuming a launch of the new iPhone by Sept., I'd guess perhaps 90 million iPhones to be sold in calendar year 2011? If so that would be about 20% of the total volume predicted by IDC. Not bad for one company.
Then again we are talking about a projection
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
Yes they could. That was just my personal wild-ass estimate. Just feelin my oats from my pretty close guess on sales of various Apple product lines prior to today's announcement.
Okay so $26.74 billion for quarter number one and $24.67 billion for quarter number two, what do you think we are looking at for the year...? Well over 100 Billion...?
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
I think the high estimates were off base - the iPad 1 is done, and out of inventory everywhere, but iPad 2 is not available everywhere. So comparing Q-Q growth: the US and the ten ( or so) countries where Apple were shipping the iPad2 would have to compete with the 100 or so where it was available in December Q.
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
I think the high estimates were off base - the iPad 1 is done, and out of inventory everywhere, but iPad 2 is not available everywhere. So comparing Q-Q growth: the US and the ten ( or so) countries where Apple were shipping the iPad2 would have to compete with the 100 or so where it was available in December.
Which would jibe with my comment elsewhere that (I'm guessing) Apple pushed up the release of the ipad2 much sooner than originally planned to grab media attention away from scheduled press conferences by Motorola. Probably would have worked out OK except for an earthquake.
Okay so $26.74 billion for quarter number one and $24.67 billion for quarter number two, what do you think we are looking at for the year...? Well over 100 Billion...?
Apple will probably do over $100 billion for the year and some analyst(s) will find fault with the numbers.
It's incredible that the iPod is still selling just 9 million a quarter.
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
Exactly. I'm trying to work out how those statements match improved availability and the Japan externality (if that has any effect at all) and lower overall sales. Perhaps initial supply was not what it was thought to be. Youy probably have a point there.
Their sell-through was 5.1 million. Since some of that was a reduction ( to zero) of iPad 1 channel inventory booked in the last quarter it doesn't count as sales. It indicates that all iPad 1's sold out and the iPad 2 is backlogged. As we would guess.
Okay so $26.74 billion for quarter number one and $24.67 billion for quarter number two, what do you think we are looking at for the year...? Well over 100 Billion...?
The street thinks $100.75B revenue and $23.03 EPS.
My guess is that revenue will be closer to $107B and $27.50 EPS.
Comments
Why are the results always declared at the end of the day?
They wait until the US stock market closes for the day. It's common practice.
18.65 mils of iPhone sold last quarter. 41% of total sales profit from U.S. (assuming total Mac sales profit is lot smaller than total iPhone sales). 3.6 mils of iPhone activated by AT&T. So the math goes like (18.65 * 0.41) - 3.6 = 4.04 mils.
If its not over 4mils I do believe Vzw will have roughly the same iphone activation number comparing to AT&T
Extrapolating from the past two quarters, and assuming a launch of the new iPhone by Sept., I'd guess perhaps 90 million iPhones to be sold in calendar year 2011? If so that would be about 20% of the total volume predicted by IDC. Not bad for one company.
Then again we are talking about a projection
"According to a study by the International Data Corporation (IDC), the worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow by 49.2% in the year 2011. In 2010, venders shipped 303.4 million smartphones, and that number is expected to climb to over 450 million this year."
Extrapolating from the past two quarters, and assuming a launch of the new iPhone by Sept., I'd guess perhaps 90 million iPhones to be sold in calendar year 2011? If so that would be about 20% of the total volume predicted by IDC. Not bad for one company.
Then again we are talking about a projection
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
Yes they could. That was just my personal wild-ass estimate. Just feelin my oats from my pretty close guess on sales of various Apple product lines prior to today's announcement.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
I think the high estimates were off base - the iPad 1 is done, and out of inventory everywhere, but iPad 2 is not available everywhere. So comparing Q-Q growth: the US and the ten ( or so) countries where Apple were shipping the iPad2 would have to compete with the 100 or so where it was available in December Q.
http://petewarden.github.com/iPhoneTracker/
this has the potential to crush apple, has a stock owner and iphone owner this is scaring me a lot.
I hope the earnings are going to compensate for the security news that just drop on Apple today
http://petewarden.github.com/iPhoneTracker/
this has the potential to crush apple, has a stock owner and iphone owner this is scaring me a lot.
We have a thread on that.
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
I think the high estimates were off base - the iPad 1 is done, and out of inventory everywhere, but iPad 2 is not available everywhere. So comparing Q-Q growth: the US and the ten ( or so) countries where Apple were shipping the iPad2 would have to compete with the 100 or so where it was available in December.
Which would jibe with my comment elsewhere that (I'm guessing) Apple pushed up the release of the ipad2 much sooner than originally planned to grab media attention away from scheduled press conferences by Motorola. Probably would have worked out OK except for an earthquake.
I hope the earnings are going to compensate for the security news that just drop on Apple today
http://petewarden.github.com/iPhoneTracker/
this has the potential to crush apple, has a stock owner and iphone owner this is scaring me a lot.
You must be new. This is a non-issue.
Okay so $26.74 billion for quarter number one and $24.67 billion for quarter number two, what do you think we are looking at for the year...? Well over 100 Billion...?
Apple will probably do over $100 billion for the year and some analyst(s) will find fault with the numbers.
It's incredible that the iPod is still selling just 9 million a quarter.
They clearly said that demand ( as we know) exceeded supply. And that channel inventory was lower than they would hope.
Exactly. I'm trying to work out how those statements match improved availability and the Japan externality (if that has any effect at all) and lower overall sales. Perhaps initial supply was not what it was thought to be. Youy probably have a point there.
he said that Japan had no material effect.
Okay so $26.74 billion for quarter number one and $24.67 billion for quarter number two, what do you think we are looking at for the year...? Well over 100 Billion...?
The street thinks $100.75B revenue and $23.03 EPS.
My guess is that revenue will be closer to $107B and $27.50 EPS.