Back when Apple was hovering around $11-12/share (before the split), I was telling all my friends to buy some Apple stock because of the potential of the iPod.
Not one person followed my advice. Several even assured me that Apple would be out of business "within five years, tops" because of Microsoft's "Longhorn" OS.
Even my own father decided to buy Microsoft stock instead because the experts told him Microsoft was about to boom again and Apple was about to go under.
Back in late 2000 my Boss said he had MS stock. I commented he ought to dump the MS stock and buy Apple and Apple would be bigger than MS in fifteen years (it only took 10 years since I wouldn't have guessed the iPod, iPhone and iPad would come along). But he did buy me a Mac(PM G3) in 1999 when the 20 some other computers in our offices were PC's.
After-hours trading is thin and a notoriously poor indicator of a stock's direction. We'll know tomorrow if the news holds up. It would be great if AAPL could catch up the rest of the market.
As of about 30 minutes ago, Apple's after hours trading numbers were over 4 million. i don't know what it is now. That's a lot for after hours. The stock is now up by $13.73 to $356.14.
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
They expect June iPhone sale to rise"significantly"; their words. Perhaps something on the OS upgrade will enhance sales a lot.
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
It was explained in the call. They had a bit less than two weeks of iPad 2 selling time in the quarter. They couldn't make enough, and they would have liked to have been able to make "a lot more".
As we now have a new model replacing an old model, we see the same situation we see with Apple's other products. Sales of the old model decline in the quarter leading up to the new model's arrival. Then, we're coming off the holiday quarter before, Apple's largest selling period of the year.
They expect to product much more product this current quarter, and are so confident of doing so, that they're introducing the product to over 35 new countries this quarter. Demand has been unprecedented, and there's been "the mother of an iPad backlog".
Which would jibe with my comment elsewhere that (I'm guessing) Apple pushed up the release of the ipad2 much sooner than originally planned to grab media attention away from scheduled press conferences by Motorola. Probably would have worked out OK except for an earthquake.
Not at all. Apple planned to release the iPad last year in March, as we should all remember, but pushed the date back because of overwhelming demand, which gave them time to produce more. They also pushed the foreign sales back a month because of that problem.
Cooke explained, today, that they have been able to produce a lot more iPad 2's than iPad 1's upon release, but it still wasn't enough.
So March is apparently the expected release date for iPads.
Apple will probably do over $100 billion for the year and some analyst(s) will find fault with the numbers.
It's incredible that the iPod is still selling just 9 million a quarter.
As Cook said today, supply issues are manageable, and shouldn't impact product products or costs. He also said that there could be unexpected additional problems around the 4th quarter which might. But as it stands, no.
If that's true, I expect sales for the 2011 fiscal year to be around $110 billion, and for the 2011 calender year, about $117 billion.
Not at all. Apple planned to release the iPad last year in March, as we should all remember, but pushed the date back because of overwhelming demand, which gave them time to produce more. They also pushed the foreign sales back a month because of that problem.
Cooke explained, today, that they have been able to produce a lot more iPad 2's than iPad 1's upon release, but it still wasn't enough.
So March is apparently the expected release date for iPads.
As I mentioned in a different thread, you and others are probably right. Yet I still can't shake the idea that Apple didn't plan to begin shipping iPad2's so soon until Motorola scheduled their tablet release. If they delayed the release last year to accommodate "overwhelming demand", why not this year?
When I opined in posts earlier this year that Apple might not be selling huge numbers of iPad2's and instead had few for sale, I caught some ridicule. As it was, I was pretty close to the truth. And that was well before any of the rumors of short supply began making the rounds. http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=121873
As of about 30 minutes ago, Apple's after hours trading numbers were over 4 million. i don't know what it is now. That's a lot for after hours. The stock is now up by $13.73 to $356.14.
You are right, that's a big number for after-hours trading -- about a quarter of an average regular session. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading session, in a good way.
As I mentioned in a different thread, you and others are probably right. Yet I still can't shake the idea that Apple didn't plan to begin shipping iPad2's so soon until Motorola scheduled their tablet release. If they delayed the release last year to accommodate "overwhelming demand", why not this year?
When I opined in posts earlier this year that Apple might not be selling huge numbers of iPad2's and instead had few for sale, I caught some ridicule. As it was, I was pretty close to the truth. And that was well before any of the rumors of short supply began making the rounds. http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=121873
Apple couldn't care less about Motorola's plans, or Samsung's plans, or RIM's plans, or anyone's plans.
All these companies know when Apple is releasing their product, because Apple telegraphs that information, even though they don't tell exactly what they are releasing. It was Motorola and RIM that released their incomplete products as many articles and reviews have noticed, because they knew when Apple was going to introduce the iPad 2. It certainly wasn't the other way around.
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
The iPad sales numbers alone will be enough to sink the price of AAPL tomorrow (even though it is already deeply oversold).
I'd like to hear more forward statements concerning sales of the iPad.
I, for one, don't think there is a problem and think the numbers are quite good considering that, for the most part, iPad 1 sales would have been in the toilet by February and then iPad 2 numbers only covered 2 weeks of the quarter. A better indicator will be Q3 numbers for the iPad.
You are right, that's a big number for after-hours trading -- about a quarter of an average regular session. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading session, in a good way.
An article you will be interested in from the day before on why Apple's shares should pop, and what happens if they don't. I happen to agree with the analysis, so it makes it a very good article for me. I hope it will be for you as well, and including everyone else here.
The iPad sales numbers alone will be enough to sink the price of AAPL tomorrow (even though it is already deeply oversold).
I'd like to hear more forward statements concerning sales of the iPad.
I, for one, don't think there is a problem and think the numbers are quite good considering that, for the most part, iPad 1 sales would have been in the toilet by February and then iPad 2 numbers only covered 2 weeks of the quarter. A better indicator will be Q3 numbers for the iPad.
I don't agree. The reasons for this were asked for, and replied to very well during the call, and that's helped to contribute to the rise in the shares after hours. Read my previous post in answer to this to see why.
I don't agree. The reasons for this were asked for, and replied to very well during the call, and that's helped to contribute to the rise in the shares after hours. Read my previous post in answer to this to see why.
Actually, I don't agree either... the second part of my comment says exactly what you are saying... but when have analysts ever been logical. I've seen big after hours numbers before and at opening only to see the stock sink as the days wears on.
An article you will be interested in from the day before on why Apple's shares should pop, and what happens if they don't. I happen to agree with the analysis, so it makes it a very good article for me. I hope it will be for you as well, and including everyone else here.
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
One thing I found interesting, assuming it wasn't a mistake, was the statement that cash and investments were $55.8 billion. Considering that they generated over $6 billion in cash this quarter, I would have expected it to be 68.5 billion. They're spending money this year, as they explained, but this discrepancy is interesting.
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
Apparently a lot of fund managers dropped Apple shares in anticipation of the NASDAQ 100 re jiggling. I suspect they'll change their minds shortly.
One thing I found interesting, assuming it wasn't a mistake, was the statement that cash and investments were $55.8 billion. Considering that they generated over $6 billion in cash this quarter, I would have expected it to be 68.5 billion. They're spending money this year, as they explained, but this discrepancy is interesting.
Good catch. I was looking for the cash figure but had not seen it quoted anywhere. But an expenditure of that magnitude, I think we'd have heard something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Apparently a lot of fund managers dropped Apple shares in anticipation of the NASDAQ 100 re jiggling. I suspect they'll change their minds shortly.
I'm not so sure. They buy into trends. If the momentum comes back, sure.
Comments
Poor beleaguered Apple.
Back when Apple was hovering around $11-12/share (before the split), I was telling all my friends to buy some Apple stock because of the potential of the iPod.
Not one person followed my advice. Several even assured me that Apple would be out of business "within five years, tops" because of Microsoft's "Longhorn" OS.
Even my own father decided to buy Microsoft stock instead because the experts told him Microsoft was about to boom again and Apple was about to go under.
Back in late 2000 my Boss said he had MS stock. I commented he ought to dump the MS stock and buy Apple and Apple would be bigger than MS in fifteen years (it only took 10 years since I wouldn't have guessed the iPod, iPhone and iPad would come along). But he did buy me a Mac(PM G3) in 1999 when the 20 some other computers in our offices were PC's.
After-hours trading is thin and a notoriously poor indicator of a stock's direction. We'll know tomorrow if the news holds up. It would be great if AAPL could catch up the rest of the market.
As of about 30 minutes ago, Apple's after hours trading numbers were over 4 million. i don't know what it is now. That's a lot for after hours. The stock is now up by $13.73 to $356.14.
idc predicts 74% in smartphone market - iphone must be beating the market then.
113%.
They could do much better than that . Assume 110% growth throughout the year and you get much higher. December would be 32 million alone. I would see 100-110 M. With cheaper models they would be much higher.
They expect June iPhone sale to rise"significantly"; their words. Perhaps something on the OS upgrade will enhance sales a lot.
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
It was explained in the call. They had a bit less than two weeks of iPad 2 selling time in the quarter. They couldn't make enough, and they would have liked to have been able to make "a lot more".
As we now have a new model replacing an old model, we see the same situation we see with Apple's other products. Sales of the old model decline in the quarter leading up to the new model's arrival. Then, we're coming off the holiday quarter before, Apple's largest selling period of the year.
They expect to product much more product this current quarter, and are so confident of doing so, that they're introducing the product to over 35 new countries this quarter. Demand has been unprecedented, and there's been "the mother of an iPad backlog".
Which would jibe with my comment elsewhere that (I'm guessing) Apple pushed up the release of the ipad2 much sooner than originally planned to grab media attention away from scheduled press conferences by Motorola. Probably would have worked out OK except for an earthquake.
Not at all. Apple planned to release the iPad last year in March, as we should all remember, but pushed the date back because of overwhelming demand, which gave them time to produce more. They also pushed the foreign sales back a month because of that problem.
Cooke explained, today, that they have been able to produce a lot more iPad 2's than iPad 1's upon release, but it still wasn't enough.
So March is apparently the expected release date for iPads.
Apple will probably do over $100 billion for the year and some analyst(s) will find fault with the numbers.
It's incredible that the iPod is still selling just 9 million a quarter.
As Cook said today, supply issues are manageable, and shouldn't impact product products or costs. He also said that there could be unexpected additional problems around the 4th quarter which might. But as it stands, no.
If that's true, I expect sales for the 2011 fiscal year to be around $110 billion, and for the 2011 calender year, about $117 billion.
$26.8B revenue
$6.60 EPS
with lower margins due to increased iPad sales. I'll bookmark this, just to see how badly I'm off.
Not at all. Apple planned to release the iPad last year in March, as we should all remember, but pushed the date back because of overwhelming demand, which gave them time to produce more. They also pushed the foreign sales back a month because of that problem.
Cooke explained, today, that they have been able to produce a lot more iPad 2's than iPad 1's upon release, but it still wasn't enough.
So March is apparently the expected release date for iPads.
As I mentioned in a different thread, you and others are probably right. Yet I still can't shake the idea that Apple didn't plan to begin shipping iPad2's so soon until Motorola scheduled their tablet release. If they delayed the release last year to accommodate "overwhelming demand", why not this year?
When I opined in posts earlier this year that Apple might not be selling huge numbers of iPad2's and instead had few for sale, I caught some ridicule. As it was, I was pretty close to the truth. And that was well before any of the rumors of short supply began making the rounds. http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=121873
As of about 30 minutes ago, Apple's after hours trading numbers were over 4 million. i don't know what it is now. That's a lot for after hours. The stock is now up by $13.73 to $356.14.
You are right, that's a big number for after-hours trading -- about a quarter of an average regular session. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading session, in a good way.
As I mentioned in a different thread, you and others are probably right. Yet I still can't shake the idea that Apple didn't plan to begin shipping iPad2's so soon until Motorola scheduled their tablet release. If they delayed the release last year to accommodate "overwhelming demand", why not this year?
When I opined in posts earlier this year that Apple might not be selling huge numbers of iPad2's and instead had few for sale, I caught some ridicule. As it was, I was pretty close to the truth. And that was well before any of the rumors of short supply began making the rounds. http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=121873
Apple couldn't care less about Motorola's plans, or Samsung's plans, or RIM's plans, or anyone's plans.
All these companies know when Apple is releasing their product, because Apple telegraphs that information, even though they don't tell exactly what they are releasing. It was Motorola and RIM that released their incomplete products as many articles and reviews have noticed, because they knew when Apple was going to introduce the iPad 2. It certainly wasn't the other way around.
All in all, amazing numbers. The odd one out is iPad. Or rather, how iPad sales and the comments by the executive gel with wait times for the product.
Ie lower than expected sales (not broken down iPad v iPad 2) v improved availability?
This is more puzzling given the supposed supply constraints out of Japan.
Two possibilities spring to mind.
1. Supply has amped up considerably despite supposed supply constraints.
2. Demand is not as strong as expected.
Perhaps the iPad as a general computing device may not be a two year refresh cycle for consumers?
Thoughts?
The iPad sales numbers alone will be enough to sink the price of AAPL tomorrow (even though it is already deeply oversold).
I'd like to hear more forward statements concerning sales of the iPad.
I, for one, don't think there is a problem and think the numbers are quite good considering that, for the most part, iPad 1 sales would have been in the toilet by February and then iPad 2 numbers only covered 2 weeks of the quarter. A better indicator will be Q3 numbers for the iPad.
You are right, that's a big number for after-hours trading -- about a quarter of an average regular session. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading session, in a good way.
An article you will be interested in from the day before on why Apple's shares should pop, and what happens if they don't. I happen to agree with the analysis, so it makes it a very good article for me. I hope it will be for you as well, and including everyone else here.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/...ce=yahoo_quote
The iPad sales numbers alone will be enough to sink the price of AAPL tomorrow (even though it is already deeply oversold).
I'd like to hear more forward statements concerning sales of the iPad.
I, for one, don't think there is a problem and think the numbers are quite good considering that, for the most part, iPad 1 sales would have been in the toilet by February and then iPad 2 numbers only covered 2 weeks of the quarter. A better indicator will be Q3 numbers for the iPad.
I don't agree. The reasons for this were asked for, and replied to very well during the call, and that's helped to contribute to the rise in the shares after hours. Read my previous post in answer to this to see why.
I don't agree. The reasons for this were asked for, and replied to very well during the call, and that's helped to contribute to the rise in the shares after hours. Read my previous post in answer to this to see why.
Actually, I don't agree either... the second part of my comment says exactly what you are saying... but when have analysts ever been logical. I've seen big after hours numbers before and at opening only to see the stock sink as the days wears on.
An article you will be interested in from the day before on why Apple's shares should pop, and what happens if they don't. I happen to agree with the analysis, so it makes it a very good article for me. I hope it will be for you as well, and including everyone else here.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/...ce=yahoo_quote
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
One thing I found interesting, assuming it wasn't a mistake, was the statement that cash and investments were $55.8 billion. Considering that they generated over $6 billion in cash this quarter, I would have expected it to be 68.5 billion. They're spending money this year, as they explained, but this discrepancy is interesting.
Excellent work once again from Andy. Thanks for the reference. SO, where's our dividend?
Yes, I tend to agree with the analysis, though I think perhaps he's overstated the possible outcomes of AAPL trading under 300. The next few days will tell whether the markets are convinced by the growth numbers Apple continues to post or are going to continue to compress valuations to ridiculously low levels. One thing I've learned about the markets from hard experience: just because a thing is ridiculous, doesn't mean it won't happen.
Apparently a lot of fund managers dropped Apple shares in anticipation of the NASDAQ 100 re jiggling. I suspect they'll change their minds shortly.
One thing I found interesting, assuming it wasn't a mistake, was the statement that cash and investments were $55.8 billion. Considering that they generated over $6 billion in cash this quarter, I would have expected it to be 68.5 billion. They're spending money this year, as they explained, but this discrepancy is interesting.
Good catch. I was looking for the cash figure but had not seen it quoted anywhere. But an expenditure of that magnitude, I think we'd have heard something.
Apparently a lot of fund managers dropped Apple shares in anticipation of the NASDAQ 100 re jiggling. I suspect they'll change their minds shortly.
I'm not so sure. They buy into trends. If the momentum comes back, sure.