Microsoft: Symbians folks are getting tired of Nokia. They will not buy another Nokia phone. Android and iOS will take them.
There is a lot of inertia behind Nokia, primarily because they have so much manufacturing base. They will build a lot of phones even if they have to sell them at or a bit below cost just to maintain market share. This is a common trend in the phone marketplace, profitability crashes before marketshare as manufacturers are forced to discount to shift units.
Upshot is most likely Nokia will manage to sell a lot of WP7 phones, albeit unprofitably. If WP7 turns out to be good, unlike all other Windows Phones, then they might stabilize then - otherwise their profitability will drop to zero and only then will their market share completely collapse.
Android + Windows Phone would be a great 1-2 for Microsoft. We should not forget they have already have HTC paying significant licensing fees for Microsoft patents on every Android device they sell. And Microsoft is pursuing other Android manufacturers to get them to do the same. So in reality Microsoft could be earning big licensing fees from sales to at least 64.10% of the market in 2015 if all goes to plan for them. That would put them well on the road to achieving the same market domination they have enjoyed with desktops and laptops.
There is a lot of inertia behind Nokia, primarily because they have so much manufacturing base. They will build a lot of phones even if they have to sell them at or a bit below cost just to maintain market share. This is a common trend in the phone marketplace, profitability crashes before marketshare as manufacturers are forced to discount to shift units.
Upshot is most likely Nokia will manage to sell a lot of WP7 phones, albeit unprofitably. If WP7 turns out to be good, unlike all other Windows Phones, then they might stabilize then - otherwise their profitability will drop to zero and only then will their market share completely collapse.
I've found WP7 to be pretty damn good. I'd take it over Android in a heartbeat. However, they are making some mistakes that have historically killed even thriving companies as noted by Jean-Louis Gassée's latest article.
I've found WP7 to be pretty damn good. I'd take it over Android in a heartbeat. However, they are making some mistakes that have historically killed even thriving companies as noted by Jean-Louis Gassée's latest article.
IE is a horrible browser platform - it's bad on the desktop I can't imagine how bad it is on a handheld. I will agree that WP7 has a distinct visual style that I can see being popular, well more popular than previous windows phones - but I'm not sure what kind of ecosystem it will have. Is the ability to read word docs really going to be enough to get enterprise on board? Lots of questions really.
Nokia's biggest problem is it is betting the whole farm on Microsoft's play. If WP7 flubs because of bad battery life or some other integration issue MS can totter off and work on WP8 and on, and find new partners - Nokia doesn't have a backup plan.
This of course misses a big fact, highlighted this week in the WWDC Keynote:
iOS controls 44% of mobile OS market share, vs. Android at 28%.
Apple's smart enough to understand that mobile ≠*only smartphones.
They didn't miss anything.
This is a prediction of smart phone sales.
The fact that iOS runs on iPads (and iPods, ATVs and probably other iDevices in the future) is irrelevant to the results of a prediction of smart phone sales.
Of course, one must be careful to understand the scope of the prediction to avoid making incorrect assumptions, but that is the part of the magic of statistics!
How can any analyst predict what will happen four or five years from now, especially in the highly volatile tech sector? What if Steve Jobs pulls another rabbit out of his hat? He's done it many times in the past. And then there's the Oracle lawsuit against Google/Android which could derail the march to market share.
Since their forecasts shift by huge percentages every couple of months, I believe the answer is they can't.
IE is a horrible browser platform - it's bad on the desktop I can't imagine how bad it is on a handheld.
Which version are you referring? Surely not all of them. IE9 is on WP7 right now and IE10 will in an update out later this year. It's not as good as WebKit's engine but it's surely seems better than Mozilla's mobile entry.
I will agree that WP7 has a distinct visual style that I can see being popular, well more popular than previous windows phones - but I'm not sure what kind of ecosystem it will have.
When I hear "ecosystem" I think of how Apple has not just their own stuff working together, but a thriving collection of third party hardware working with them as well.
For example, if I want to connect my iPhone to a set of speakers to play music I have hundreds of options... if I wanted to connect a WP7 (or Android phone)... well, not so many options.
So "ecosystem", I don't think so. Not unless Microsoft (and a lot of other manufacturers) throw absolutely everything they have behind things like DLNA and Ultraviolet.
However I think they will have a complete "platform", a cloud-connected mesh of devices that offer and "anything, anywhere, anytime" access with a consistent user experience that developers can target with a similar code base.
This of course misses a big fact, highlighted this week in the WWDC Keynote:
iOS controls 44% of mobile OS marketshare, vs. Android at 28%.
Apple's smart enough to understand that mobile ≠*only smartphones.
Was there ever an official explanation of how Apple arrived at these values?
I assume the 44% includes iPod touch and iPad sales.
However, I'm also wondering whether these figures are for the US only. If not, where's Symbian? If Android is on 28% then Symbian should be on around the same percentage - far bigger than the "other" slice of the pie. If Symbian has for some reason been removed then why? The chart says "Mobile Installed Base" so the reason can't be that Apple no longer considers it to be a smartphone OS.
Which version are you referring? Surely not all of them. IE9 is on WP7 right now and IE10 will in an update out later this year. It's not as good as WebKit's engine but it's surely seems better than Mozilla's mobile entry.
What is on WP7 right now is a hybrid between IE7 and IE8. WP7.5 "Mango" has IE9 with full hardware acceleration.
I'm not sure what the IE dev cycle is, but it looks like it's not running parrallel with Windows.
That means we might see IE10 for the desktop in 1Q 2012 and bundled with WP8 in 3Q/4Q 2012.
Was there ever an official explanation of how Apple arrived at these values?
I assume the 44% includes iPod touch and iPad sales.
However, I'm also wondering whether these figures are for the US only. If not, where's Symbian? If Android is on 28% then Symbian should be on around the same percentage - far bigger than the "other" slice of the pie. If Symbian has for some reason been removed then why? The chart says "Mobile Installed Base" so the reason can't be that Apple no longer considers it to be a smartphone OS.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
The entire iOS Ecosystem encompasses iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad.
Yeah, FOGIFs (Friends Of Gartner, IDC & Forrester)s - ridiculous.
This is MY prediction: Google's Android will Fizzle Out.
Only cheaters can support Google because Google stabbed Apple in the back - their founders were mentored by Steve Jobs, went on walks with him and made many visits to Apple's campus; and their CEO at the time was on the board of Apple and also on stage when Apple launched iPhone in 2007.
You should see Android's beta version at the time (very much like BlackBerry's) and how quickly they copied Apple's iPhone OS.
Apple's iPhone will have over 50% share in 2015 with Android at 15% because of still ongoing BOGO (Buy One Get One) deals and BNGO (Buy None Get One) deals!!!
And Windows - the less said the better! Only IDC and Gartner can predict them to be bigger than Apple - because they are FOGIFs !!!!
That's really well thought out. I can't fault the reasoning.
It seems lack a rather bold and foolish prediction to assume that all Symbian users are going to be loyal to the Nokia brand with a completely different OS.
Right, Windows Phone with its horrid UI, failed music service, locked in integration with the crappy BING services (Why does Microsoft force people to use their terrible BING stuff? Why not give people a choice?), fragmented hardware, super expensive development tools and platform software, and feature lacking OS is going to pass the far superior iOS and iDevices. LOL. Wonder how much Microsoft paid for this "estimate"?
It seems lack a rather bold and foolish prediction to assume that all Symbian users are going to be loyal to the Nokia brand with a completely different OS.
I can see the logic though. Symbian has never been a particularly strong consumer brand. Most people buying Nokia smartphones are buying them because of the Nokia brand.
Comments
meh, "marketshare", who cares about "marketshare" as long as Apple continues to sell more physical units than it did before.
That's where the money is.
What about the net profit marketshare? I wonder if IDC estimated that or only left it to marketshare by units.
What about the net profit marketshare? I wonder if IDC estimated that or only left it to marketshare by units.
If current trends continue only Apple, RIM & HTC will still be making any money from handsets.
Microsoft: Symbians folks are getting tired of Nokia. They will not buy another Nokia phone. Android and iOS will take them.
There is a lot of inertia behind Nokia, primarily because they have so much manufacturing base. They will build a lot of phones even if they have to sell them at or a bit below cost just to maintain market share. This is a common trend in the phone marketplace, profitability crashes before marketshare as manufacturers are forced to discount to shift units.
Upshot is most likely Nokia will manage to sell a lot of WP7 phones, albeit unprofitably. If WP7 turns out to be good, unlike all other Windows Phones, then they might stabilize then - otherwise their profitability will drop to zero and only then will their market share completely collapse.
There is a lot of inertia behind Nokia, primarily because they have so much manufacturing base. They will build a lot of phones even if they have to sell them at or a bit below cost just to maintain market share. This is a common trend in the phone marketplace, profitability crashes before marketshare as manufacturers are forced to discount to shift units.
Upshot is most likely Nokia will manage to sell a lot of WP7 phones, albeit unprofitably. If WP7 turns out to be good, unlike all other Windows Phones, then they might stabilize then - otherwise their profitability will drop to zero and only then will their market share completely collapse.
I've found WP7 to be pretty damn good. I'd take it over Android in a heartbeat. However, they are making some mistakes that have historically killed even thriving companies as noted by Jean-Louis Gassée's latest article.
I've found WP7 to be pretty damn good. I'd take it over Android in a heartbeat. However, they are making some mistakes that have historically killed even thriving companies as noted by Jean-Louis Gassée's latest article.
IE is a horrible browser platform - it's bad on the desktop I can't imagine how bad it is on a handheld. I will agree that WP7 has a distinct visual style that I can see being popular, well more popular than previous windows phones - but I'm not sure what kind of ecosystem it will have. Is the ability to read word docs really going to be enough to get enterprise on board? Lots of questions really.
Nokia's biggest problem is it is betting the whole farm on Microsoft's play. If WP7 flubs because of bad battery life or some other integration issue MS can totter off and work on WP8 and on, and find new partners - Nokia doesn't have a backup plan.
iOS is not just smartphones
This of course misses a big fact, highlighted this week in the WWDC Keynote:
iOS controls 44% of mobile OS market share, vs. Android at 28%.
Apple's smart enough to understand that mobile ≠*only smartphones.
They didn't miss anything.
This is a prediction of smart phone sales.
The fact that iOS runs on iPads (and iPods, ATVs and probably other iDevices in the future) is irrelevant to the results of a prediction of smart phone sales.
Of course, one must be careful to understand the scope of the prediction to avoid making incorrect assumptions, but that is the part of the magic of statistics!
How can any analyst predict what will happen four or five years from now, especially in the highly volatile tech sector? What if Steve Jobs pulls another rabbit out of his hat? He's done it many times in the past. And then there's the Oracle lawsuit against Google/Android which could derail the march to market share.
Since their forecasts shift by huge percentages every couple of months, I believe the answer is they can't.
IE is a horrible browser platform - it's bad on the desktop I can't imagine how bad it is on a handheld.
Which version are you referring? Surely not all of them. IE9 is on WP7 right now and IE10 will in an update out later this year. It's not as good as WebKit's engine but it's surely seems better than Mozilla's mobile entry.
- Peerless
- Prognostications of
- Projected
- Phone
- Population and
- Provider
- Percentile
- Penetration
- Performance
Poo Poo Pee DooI will agree that WP7 has a distinct visual style that I can see being popular, well more popular than previous windows phones - but I'm not sure what kind of ecosystem it will have.
When I hear "ecosystem" I think of how Apple has not just their own stuff working together, but a thriving collection of third party hardware working with them as well.
For example, if I want to connect my iPhone to a set of speakers to play music I have hundreds of options... if I wanted to connect a WP7 (or Android phone)... well, not so many options.
So "ecosystem", I don't think so. Not unless Microsoft (and a lot of other manufacturers) throw absolutely everything they have behind things like DLNA and Ultraviolet.
However I think they will have a complete "platform", a cloud-connected mesh of devices that offer and "anything, anywhere, anytime" access with a consistent user experience that developers can target with a similar code base.
This of course misses a big fact, highlighted this week in the WWDC Keynote:
iOS controls 44% of mobile OS marketshare, vs. Android at 28%.
Apple's smart enough to understand that mobile ≠*only smartphones.
Was there ever an official explanation of how Apple arrived at these values?
I assume the 44% includes iPod touch and iPad sales.
However, I'm also wondering whether these figures are for the US only. If not, where's Symbian? If Android is on 28% then Symbian should be on around the same percentage - far bigger than the "other" slice of the pie. If Symbian has for some reason been removed then why? The chart says "Mobile Installed Base" so the reason can't be that Apple no longer considers it to be a smartphone OS.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Which version are you referring? Surely not all of them. IE9 is on WP7 right now and IE10 will in an update out later this year. It's not as good as WebKit's engine but it's surely seems better than Mozilla's mobile entry.
What is on WP7 right now is a hybrid between IE7 and IE8. WP7.5 "Mango" has IE9 with full hardware acceleration.
I'm not sure what the IE dev cycle is, but it looks like it's not running parrallel with Windows.
That means we might see IE10 for the desktop in 1Q 2012 and bundled with WP8 in 3Q/4Q 2012.
Was there ever an official explanation of how Apple arrived at these values?
I assume the 44% includes iPod touch and iPad sales.
However, I'm also wondering whether these figures are for the US only. If not, where's Symbian? If Android is on 28% then Symbian should be on around the same percentage - far bigger than the "other" slice of the pie. If Symbian has for some reason been removed then why? The chart says "Mobile Installed Base" so the reason can't be that Apple no longer considers it to be a smartphone OS.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
The entire iOS Ecosystem encompasses iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad.
Yeah, FOGIFs (Friends Of Gartner, IDC & Forrester)s - ridiculous.
This is MY prediction: Google's Android will Fizzle Out.
Only cheaters can support Google because Google stabbed Apple in the back - their founders were mentored by Steve Jobs, went on walks with him and made many visits to Apple's campus; and their CEO at the time was on the board of Apple and also on stage when Apple launched iPhone in 2007.
You should see Android's beta version at the time (very much like BlackBerry's) and how quickly they copied Apple's iPhone OS.
Apple's iPhone will have over 50% share in 2015 with Android at 15% because of still ongoing BOGO (Buy One Get One) deals and BNGO (Buy None Get One) deals!!!
And Windows - the less said the better! Only IDC and Gartner can predict them to be bigger than Apple - because they are FOGIFs !!!!
That's really well thought out. I can't fault the reasoning.
It seems lack a rather bold and foolish prediction to assume that all Symbian users are going to be loyal to the Nokia brand with a completely different OS.
I can see the logic though. Symbian has never been a particularly strong consumer brand. Most people buying Nokia smartphones are buying them because of the Nokia brand.
I would have a lot more confidence in their estimates -- if they had broken them down by color!
i want blue i phone