Apples market share will explode as new markets come on line >including Russia, China, India > and all those new clients discover the ease of use and portability of mac O/S and IOS. And the app store will crush them . Remember apple has so few choices but i feel they wlll add more choice soon enough. A cheaper nano phone would be nice and a smaller IPAD too.
All of these things will increase apple sales greatly and apples market share a bit more slowly.
Funny how nokia and there ilk have so many money losing models that make a grand press splash and then fade away after one year . Dozens of future unsupported models dying on the vine of a 2 yr contract>>Apple clients will not be churned away . Apple fans will stay loyal .
Of note verizon is not a good iphone carrier. TONS OF dropped nyc calls .fuck
I regret not getting iphone 3 yrs
9
ps
16.9 % of what total market ??
and if the market grows by 30% who pro rates it ??
Only cheaters can support Google because Google stabbed Apple in the back - their founders were mentored by Steve Jobs, went on walks with him and made many visits to Apple's campus; and their CEO at the time was on the board of Apple and also on stage when Apple launched iPhone in 2007.
Makes a nice story. But if you do a little research on your own you might get a different view.
Suppose Steve Jobs might have picked Andy Rubin's brain during one of his numerous visits to the Google campus? Or that Steve probably knew a whole lot more about Android than Eric Schmidt knew about iOS? What did he take back to Apple and share with the engineering teams? Or that one reason Apple may have wanted Schmidt on board was to keep up with Google plans, particularly for Android? And that Apple probably needed Google's knowledge of the web to pull all the features together, thus having Google on the board ensured some level of cooperation.
Or considered that the Apple engineers that Google invited to their labs might have garnered a few ideas to stuff in the iPhone?
Both Google and Apple began work in earnest on a mobile phone at about the same time, tho Google was much less secretive about it. There's absolutely no evidence that anyone connected with Google, Schmidt included, ever saw a real iPhone prior to it's announcement. That Google changed the interface for the "show phone" to touchscreen instead of trackball is simply recognition that Apple had a better idea, and that Google manufacturing partners should go in that direction to be successful. That's a no-brainer.
EDIT: Forgot to make it clear that I'm not claiming Steve Jobs or Apple engineers "stole" any unique ideas from Google. There's nothing that proves either Google or Apple was mining the other, stealing mobile OS design ideas. The only one's who really know the whole story are Steve Jobs and Google's owners. Anything else is rumor and guesses.
Add to that the competition from RIM's Black Berry and HP's WebOS, and I simple can't bring myself to believe that Microsoft/Nokia can overtake the iPhone in marketshare by 2015.
The "experts" say that the tight integration with the Microsoft "ecosystem" will be a major selling point. For instance, the X-BOX will be tightly integrated.
But nobody cares. Its a phone, Monkey Boy, not a game machine.
Why does Microsoft force people to use their terrible BING stuff? Why not give people a choice?
Microsoft makes more money from Android than they do from WP7 and Google makes more money from iOS than they do from Android.
The entire point of these platforms from Google's and Microsoft's viewpoint is to ensure their mobile marketshare because mobile users won't have a choice of browser and can be effectively captured. This incidentally is why the entire 'Android as iOS killer' meme is such as joke, Google never really wanted it to be and will probably never invest enough in it for that. Google just want to keep windows out of the mobile space.
The "experts" say that the tight integration with the Microsoft "ecosystem" will be a major selling point. For instance, the X-BOX will be tightly integrated.
But nobody cares. Its a phone, Monkey Boy, not a game machine.
FAIL!
While I do not buy into the Microsoft dominance theory, I have to disagree here.
Many iPhone owners play more games than make phone calls.
I think the XBOX integration is a real draw (not that I will be buying ).
Android handset makers are in a shark tank fighting each other for slim margins. Apple's laughing all the way to the bank with their #2 place in the popularity contest. And they keep adding cool stuff.
As for Nokia, they've jumped from a burning platform to a company that specializes in making burning platforms. Windows is their only one that's lasted and while it's not yet completely ablaze, everyone can see the smoke. In tech, there's no such thing as too big to fail.
Android handset makers are in a shark tank fighting each other for slim margins. Apple's laughing all the way to the bank with their #2 place in the popularity contest. And they keep adding cool stuff.
Android makers are better off than they were when their choices were symbian, custom java platform or old pre wp7 windows. HTC for example wouldn't have had the money or expertise to create a remotely attractive UI. It does reduce the handset makers to competing on a very few features though, and that's bad for the big incumbents like Samsung.
Quote:
As for Nokia, they've jumped from a burning platform to a company that specializes in making burning platforms. Windows is their only one that's lasted and while it's not yet completely ablaze, everyone can see the smoke. In tech, there's no such thing as too big to fail.
It's a hail mary pass. WP7 is likely to be a disaster for Nokia, but Symbian is DEFINITELY a disaster, so really what is their alternative? Android? Then they just become the last player to the party, so unless google decided to give them an exclusive on a future release they'd continue to bleed market share.
Also MS are hammering Android makers on license fees, and promising huge co-marketing payments for WP7, so for a firm like Nokia that has significant financial worries it's appealing. I don't think it will succeed but I can see why it's a logical choice.
I'm sure someone has already asked who pays IDC's bills to say nice things about the other platforms, but if Apple's success in the MP3 is a model for the future, then in 4 years, Apple will be easily over 50% marketshare, having eaten both Nokia and RIM for lunch. They're shills, nothing more
I'm sure someone has already asked who pays IDC's bills to say nice things about the other platforms, but if Apple's success in the MP3 is a model for the future, then in 4 years, Apple will be easily over 50% marketshare, having eaten both Nokia and RIM for lunch. They're shills, nothing more
50% of the smartphone segment by 2015 would be a huge stretch for Apple, no matter how great their products. Apple have significant supply constraints and big entrenched competitors, neither of which where big problems in the iPod market. They also need to deal with the peculiarities of different nations regulated phone markets, which was never an issue with the iPod. Finally the smartphone market is bigger than the iPod market and growing faster as the entire handset industry switches production to smartphones.
When viewed from the perspective of smartphone market share Apple is in a red-queen game. They have to grow fast just to stay in the same place.
Don't get me wrong I think Apple will do much better than IDC are predicting, most likely 30-35% of the smartphone market. But 50% would be incredibly hard to pull off - unless the smartphone segment stops growing, which it shows no sign of doing.
50% of the smartphone segment by 2015 would be a huge stretch for Apple, no matter how great their products. Apple have significant supply constraints and big entrenched competitors, neither of which where big problems in the iPod market. They also need to deal with the peculiarities of different nations regulated phone markets, which was never an issue with the iPod. Finally the smartphone market is bigger than the iPod market and growing faster as the entire handset industry switches production to smartphones.
When viewed from the perspective of smartphone market share Apple is in a red-queen game. They have to grow fast just to stay in the same place.
Don't get me wrong I think Apple will do much better than IDC are predicting, most likely 30-35% of the smartphone market. But 50% would be incredibly hard to pull off - unless the smartphone segment stops growing, which it shows no sign of doing.
IDC are merely predicting the market to double by 2015. To stay at their present market share Apple need to double. To double their market share they need to grow 400% times in 4 years. And so on. Pretty sure that is no greater than the problems they have already faced.
Here is my comment on the original IDC article - at CNET.
To put IDC's predictions into perspective they predicted in November last year that the biggest smart phone platform in the world would be Nokia and Symbian by 2015. Their methodology is simple. Pick Nokia's present day market share and project it to 2015, increase Android a bit, reduce iOS a bit. When Symbian was replaced by WP7 they decided that Nokia an WP7 would replace the original Symbian projection - a projection invalidated within a few months ( and lets be clear here it was invalidated because nobody in Nokia believed a word of it).
So Nokia is going to save WP7. Why? It couldn't save Symbian. The Brand is toxic. As for WP7 saving Nokia - the other option - again, how? Adding Nokia is just adding one manufacturer, one in permanent decline. WP7 is already available on many.
Notice also that the arguments for Nokia - it's reach and brand - are ignored for Apple. Both are one company, regardless of what software they use. Nokia is going to lock to WP7, except for the fact that they buy it in, they are in the same position as Apple with regards to iOS ( unlike, HTC for instance). One manufacturer, except with a more toxic brand. And that one manufacturer will boost WP7's growth into the stratosphere.
Also ignored is Apple's clear determination to get into China and India, and to get one all carriers worldwide( as opposed to the 50% they are on now). And they have suggested they will reduce prices. I mean by that unsubsidised prices - the 3GS is $499 compared to the cheapest Android at $199. Still the 3GS sells better than any Android phone. Also there is the iPad-iPhone halo. IDC are also saying, beyond that, that since the market merely doubles by 2015, something which it has done in the last one year, that Apple's growth - running at between 80-100% a year - must fall off a cliff and Windows needs to grow at 200% a year, though nothing has happened to indicate any of this: even though WP7 is freely available on multiple carriers, and carried by multiple manufacturers.
And then there is the US - where Nokia is a non-existent brand - and where the modern Smartphone age was created by Americans, Apple and Google, not Europeans. The Tech industry is focused in the US. If there is any bump at all in the fortunes of WP7 - which I doubt - it would be outside the US. And who is going to cover that, like it or not, the world listens to the American tech press. Software startups are concentrated there. Nokia is no help to that. Have an American presence or die.The guy who is coding in Silicon Valley will target iOs and Android. Never ever Wp7. Unless bribed.
IDC deal with none of this. They are Nokia groupies. They have already got this wrong, incredibly wrong, in just a few months and rather than be embarrassed and work out why they were wrong about Symbian, they replaced their estimates for Symbian with Wp7 using the exact same methodology.
IDC are merely predicting the market to double by 2015. To stay at their present market share Apple need to double. To double their market share they need to grow 400% times in 4 years. And so on. Pretty sure that is no greater than the problems they have already faced.
Yes, and to reach 50% globally they'd need to more than double their market share, you'd be looking at over 500% over 4 years.
It's pretty implausible. To put this into perspective, last quarter was amazing for iPhone in the US. It grew its share of the total handset market by 1.3% from 7%->8.3% - so incredibly strong growth. Even if it was to grow at the same rate linearly from now on, which is frankly unlikely, it would still fall short of 50% in the smartphone segment in the US, unless the smartphone market growth stalled.
Apple is doing great, and I'm sure they'll continue to do great. Their handset share is growing and I'm sure it will continue to grow. But Apple has constraints just like everybody else. Again, I don't think IDCs numbers are correct - I just think people need to put things into perspective.
While I wouldn't go as far as IDC, I think it's a mistake to write off WP7.
People said the same things about Android 2-3 years go. And we all know how that went.
I think WP7 will be to smarthphones what the iPad was to tablets....well maybe not to the same extent but let me explain. If you're coming from a dumbphone, the Metro UI is remarkably easy to understand. The concept of hubs, while restrictive, is very easy to understand. People...everything to do about everybody you know. Messages. Call. If you've never used an iPod Touch before, than an Android or iOS device is going to be complicated to manage. This is the smartphone I would give my mom. There's a gap between dumbphones and smartphones and WP7 is aiming to fill it. It's not necessarily a bad idea.
And then there's other advantages that Microsoft has. Office, skype and xbox live integration. That's a whole lot of advantages that WP7 is starting off with that Android never had. And yet Android got somewhere.
On the other hand, there are huge disadvantages:
1) Tight control. Might be appealing for iOS fans. But this is terrible for OEMs. How will they distinguish themselves? And if they can't why would they keep pushing Windows Phones? Before Android came along, this might have been a great alternative. Now? Not so much. Why would I pay $12.50 to license software I can't customize when there's a decent free alternative available? And if I were an OEM, I'd be even more weary about the special treatment MS is giving Nokia on customization.
2) Bing. Good inside the bubble that is the USA. Elsewhere? Bing sucks. Particularly for local stuff. And they further away you get from the anglosphere, the worse they get.
3) Leaving the best out from the rest of the world. Zunepass. One of their best features. USA only. Though Google has done the same thing with Google Voice for so long.
4) Stigma. A lot of people still think WinPho = WinMo.
5) No tablet strategy. That seems to be focused on Windows 8.
Who knows how it'll work out. But I do think it's wrong to write them off so quickly.
Yes, and to reach 50% globally they'd need to more than double their market share, you'd be looking at over 500% over 4 years.
It's pretty implausible. To put this into perspective, last quarter was amazing for iPhone in the US. It grew its share of the total handset market by 1.3% from 7%->8.3% - so incredibly strong growth. Even if it was to grow at the same rate linearly from now on, which is frankly unlikely, it would still fall short of 50% in the smartphone segment in the US, unless the smartphone market growth stalled.
Apple is doing great, and I'm sure they'll continue to do great. Their handset share is growing and I'm sure it will continue to grow. But Apple has constraints just like everybody else. Again, I don't think IDCs numbers are correct - I just think people need to put things into perspective.
The market is growing much faster up until now than IDC predicts for the future. They say
This year's smartphones shipments are expected to hit 472 million, up from 305 million last year, and then double to 982 million by the end of 2015.
That is 50% this year and another 100% to 2015 - which is about 19.5% compound per year.
IDC are predicting 18.2% for APple this year, our of 472M phones. Which is about 86M phones. ( Really?)
By 2015 Apple will have 16.9% of 982M = 166M. Thats, as you can see, predicting growth lower than the market, and about the same as Apple's unit growth in the last year.
In fact, if Apple maintains it's recent 80% growth it will get to 800M phones. Thats the nature of compound 80% growth. Its also the kind of growth which has propelled them from 1% to 18% of the market. Thats not likely but neither is the IDC's expectations, that Apple's growth has to drop off a cliff.
Nor, does it look like there will be supply constraints going forward. Apple doesn't have to match it's recent successes to get to 30%.
( I am taking IDC's figures for everything with a pinch of salt though. They may be totally wrong with units shipped).
Why would I pay $12.50 to license software I can't customize when there's a decent free alternative available?
Because if you don't microsoft will hammer you with $12.50 license fees for android too. In fact there is evidence that MS is using license fees to encourage OEM support of WP7 and that they're hitting android only shops with punitive fees.
At some point Google will have to pursuade an OEM to stand up to them, but if HTC is any indication most willl choose to cave.
Comments
All of these things will increase apple sales greatly and apples market share a bit more slowly.
Funny how nokia and there ilk have so many money losing models that make a grand press splash and then fade away after one year . Dozens of future unsupported models dying on the vine of a 2 yr contract>>Apple clients will not be churned away . Apple fans will stay loyal .
Of note verizon is not a good iphone carrier. TONS OF dropped nyc calls .fuck
I regret not getting iphone 3 yrs
9
ps
16.9 % of what total market ??
and if the market grows by 30% who pro rates it ??
Only cheaters can support Google because Google stabbed Apple in the back - their founders were mentored by Steve Jobs, went on walks with him and made many visits to Apple's campus; and their CEO at the time was on the board of Apple and also on stage when Apple launched iPhone in 2007.
Makes a nice story. But if you do a little research on your own you might get a different view.
Suppose Steve Jobs might have picked Andy Rubin's brain during one of his numerous visits to the Google campus? Or that Steve probably knew a whole lot more about Android than Eric Schmidt knew about iOS? What did he take back to Apple and share with the engineering teams? Or that one reason Apple may have wanted Schmidt on board was to keep up with Google plans, particularly for Android? And that Apple probably needed Google's knowledge of the web to pull all the features together, thus having Google on the board ensured some level of cooperation.
Or considered that the Apple engineers that Google invited to their labs might have garnered a few ideas to stuff in the iPhone?
Both Google and Apple began work in earnest on a mobile phone at about the same time, tho Google was much less secretive about it. There's absolutely no evidence that anyone connected with Google, Schmidt included, ever saw a real iPhone prior to it's announcement. That Google changed the interface for the "show phone" to touchscreen instead of trackball is simply recognition that Apple had a better idea, and that Google manufacturing partners should go in that direction to be successful. That's a no-brainer.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/10/comm...ndex.htm#story
Here's a good background article on why Google wanted Android; from Bloomberg back in 2005
http://www.webcitation.org/5wk7sIvVb
EDIT: Forgot to make it clear that I'm not claiming Steve Jobs or Apple engineers "stole" any unique ideas from Google. There's nothing that proves either Google or Apple was mining the other, stealing mobile OS design ideas. The only one's who really know the whole story are Steve Jobs and Google's owners. Anything else is rumor and guesses.
I wonder if they analyzed which company will generate the most revenue through smartphones?
Naw, because that would actually be relevant to phone buyers. Instead, they try to sell their crap to businesses.
Add to that the competition from RIM's Black Berry and HP's WebOS, and I simple can't bring myself to believe that Microsoft/Nokia can overtake the iPhone in marketshare by 2015.
The "experts" say that the tight integration with the Microsoft "ecosystem" will be a major selling point. For instance, the X-BOX will be tightly integrated.
But nobody cares. Its a phone, Monkey Boy, not a game machine.
FAIL!
That's really well thought out. I can't fault the reasoning.
The reasoning is fine. It is the premises which are defective. For example, "Only cheaters can support Google".
All sorts of miscreants support Google. Not just cheaters.
And don't forget how much money Apple pays Google every year for the services they provide to Steve, like the map program in IOS.
Why does Microsoft force people to use their terrible BING stuff? Why not give people a choice?
Microsoft makes more money from Android than they do from WP7 and Google makes more money from iOS than they do from Android.
The entire point of these platforms from Google's and Microsoft's viewpoint is to ensure their mobile marketshare because mobile users won't have a choice of browser and can be effectively captured. This incidentally is why the entire 'Android as iOS killer' meme is such as joke, Google never really wanted it to be and will probably never invest enough in it for that. Google just want to keep windows out of the mobile space.
The "experts" say that the tight integration with the Microsoft "ecosystem" will be a major selling point. For instance, the X-BOX will be tightly integrated.
But nobody cares. Its a phone, Monkey Boy, not a game machine.
FAIL!
While I do not buy into the Microsoft dominance theory, I have to disagree here.
Many iPhone owners play more games than make phone calls.
I think the XBOX integration is a real draw (not that I will be buying
But, 82%?! get real!
derp
I had you blocked but I couldn't remember reading anything you posted, so I clicked on "view post"......... and then I remembered
Makes a nice story. But if you do a little research on your own you might get a different view.
I appreciate your perspective.
As for Nokia, they've jumped from a burning platform to a company that specializes in making burning platforms. Windows is their only one that's lasted and while it's not yet completely ablaze, everyone can see the smoke. In tech, there's no such thing as too big to fail.
Android handset makers are in a shark tank fighting each other for slim margins. Apple's laughing all the way to the bank with their #2 place in the popularity contest. And they keep adding cool stuff.
Android makers are better off than they were when their choices were symbian, custom java platform or old pre wp7 windows. HTC for example wouldn't have had the money or expertise to create a remotely attractive UI. It does reduce the handset makers to competing on a very few features though, and that's bad for the big incumbents like Samsung.
As for Nokia, they've jumped from a burning platform to a company that specializes in making burning platforms. Windows is their only one that's lasted and while it's not yet completely ablaze, everyone can see the smoke. In tech, there's no such thing as too big to fail.
It's a hail mary pass. WP7 is likely to be a disaster for Nokia, but Symbian is DEFINITELY a disaster, so really what is their alternative? Android? Then they just become the last player to the party, so unless google decided to give them an exclusive on a future release they'd continue to bleed market share.
Also MS are hammering Android makers on license fees, and promising huge co-marketing payments for WP7, so for a firm like Nokia that has significant financial worries it's appealing. I don't think it will succeed but I can see why it's a logical choice.
I'm sure someone has already asked who pays IDC's bills to say nice things about the other platforms, but if Apple's success in the MP3 is a model for the future, then in 4 years, Apple will be easily over 50% marketshare, having eaten both Nokia and RIM for lunch. They're shills, nothing more
50% of the smartphone segment by 2015 would be a huge stretch for Apple, no matter how great their products. Apple have significant supply constraints and big entrenched competitors, neither of which where big problems in the iPod market. They also need to deal with the peculiarities of different nations regulated phone markets, which was never an issue with the iPod. Finally the smartphone market is bigger than the iPod market and growing faster as the entire handset industry switches production to smartphones.
When viewed from the perspective of smartphone market share Apple is in a red-queen game. They have to grow fast just to stay in the same place.
Don't get me wrong I think Apple will do much better than IDC are predicting, most likely 30-35% of the smartphone market. But 50% would be incredibly hard to pull off - unless the smartphone segment stops growing, which it shows no sign of doing.
50% of the smartphone segment by 2015 would be a huge stretch for Apple, no matter how great their products. Apple have significant supply constraints and big entrenched competitors, neither of which where big problems in the iPod market. They also need to deal with the peculiarities of different nations regulated phone markets, which was never an issue with the iPod. Finally the smartphone market is bigger than the iPod market and growing faster as the entire handset industry switches production to smartphones.
When viewed from the perspective of smartphone market share Apple is in a red-queen game. They have to grow fast just to stay in the same place.
Don't get me wrong I think Apple will do much better than IDC are predicting, most likely 30-35% of the smartphone market. But 50% would be incredibly hard to pull off - unless the smartphone segment stops growing, which it shows no sign of doing.
IDC are merely predicting the market to double by 2015. To stay at their present market share Apple need to double. To double their market share they need to grow 400% times in 4 years. And so on. Pretty sure that is no greater than the problems they have already faced.
To put IDC's predictions into perspective they predicted in November last year that the biggest smart phone platform in the world would be Nokia and Symbian by 2015. Their methodology is simple. Pick Nokia's present day market share and project it to 2015, increase Android a bit, reduce iOS a bit. When Symbian was replaced by WP7 they decided that Nokia an WP7 would replace the original Symbian projection - a projection invalidated within a few months ( and lets be clear here it was invalidated because nobody in Nokia believed a word of it).
So Nokia is going to save WP7. Why? It couldn't save Symbian. The Brand is toxic. As for WP7 saving Nokia - the other option - again, how? Adding Nokia is just adding one manufacturer, one in permanent decline. WP7 is already available on many.
Notice also that the arguments for Nokia - it's reach and brand - are ignored for Apple. Both are one company, regardless of what software they use. Nokia is going to lock to WP7, except for the fact that they buy it in, they are in the same position as Apple with regards to iOS ( unlike, HTC for instance). One manufacturer, except with a more toxic brand. And that one manufacturer will boost WP7's growth into the stratosphere.
Also ignored is Apple's clear determination to get into China and India, and to get one all carriers worldwide( as opposed to the 50% they are on now). And they have suggested they will reduce prices. I mean by that unsubsidised prices - the 3GS is $499 compared to the cheapest Android at $199. Still the 3GS sells better than any Android phone. Also there is the iPad-iPhone halo. IDC are also saying, beyond that, that since the market merely doubles by 2015, something which it has done in the last one year, that Apple's growth - running at between 80-100% a year - must fall off a cliff and Windows needs to grow at 200% a year, though nothing has happened to indicate any of this: even though WP7 is freely available on multiple carriers, and carried by multiple manufacturers.
And then there is the US - where Nokia is a non-existent brand - and where the modern Smartphone age was created by Americans, Apple and Google, not Europeans. The Tech industry is focused in the US. If there is any bump at all in the fortunes of WP7 - which I doubt - it would be outside the US. And who is going to cover that, like it or not, the world listens to the American tech press. Software startups are concentrated there. Nokia is no help to that. Have an American presence or die.The guy who is coding in Silicon Valley will target iOs and Android. Never ever Wp7. Unless bribed.
IDC deal with none of this. They are Nokia groupies. They have already got this wrong, incredibly wrong, in just a few months and rather than be embarrassed and work out why they were wrong about Symbian, they replaced their estimates for Symbian with Wp7 using the exact same methodology.
IDC are merely predicting the market to double by 2015. To stay at their present market share Apple need to double. To double their market share they need to grow 400% times in 4 years. And so on. Pretty sure that is no greater than the problems they have already faced.
Yes, and to reach 50% globally they'd need to more than double their market share, you'd be looking at over 500% over 4 years.
It's pretty implausible. To put this into perspective, last quarter was amazing for iPhone in the US. It grew its share of the total handset market by 1.3% from 7%->8.3% - so incredibly strong growth. Even if it was to grow at the same rate linearly from now on, which is frankly unlikely, it would still fall short of 50% in the smartphone segment in the US, unless the smartphone market growth stalled.
Apple is doing great, and I'm sure they'll continue to do great. Their handset share is growing and I'm sure it will continue to grow. But Apple has constraints just like everybody else. Again, I don't think IDCs numbers are correct - I just think people need to put things into perspective.
People said the same things about Android 2-3 years go. And we all know how that went.
I think WP7 will be to smarthphones what the iPad was to tablets....well maybe not to the same extent but let me explain. If you're coming from a dumbphone, the Metro UI is remarkably easy to understand. The concept of hubs, while restrictive, is very easy to understand. People...everything to do about everybody you know. Messages. Call. If you've never used an iPod Touch before, than an Android or iOS device is going to be complicated to manage. This is the smartphone I would give my mom. There's a gap between dumbphones and smartphones and WP7 is aiming to fill it. It's not necessarily a bad idea.
And then there's other advantages that Microsoft has. Office, skype and xbox live integration. That's a whole lot of advantages that WP7 is starting off with that Android never had. And yet Android got somewhere.
On the other hand, there are huge disadvantages:
1) Tight control. Might be appealing for iOS fans. But this is terrible for OEMs. How will they distinguish themselves? And if they can't why would they keep pushing Windows Phones? Before Android came along, this might have been a great alternative. Now? Not so much. Why would I pay $12.50 to license software I can't customize when there's a decent free alternative available? And if I were an OEM, I'd be even more weary about the special treatment MS is giving Nokia on customization.
2) Bing. Good inside the bubble that is the USA. Elsewhere? Bing sucks. Particularly for local stuff. And they further away you get from the anglosphere, the worse they get.
3) Leaving the best out from the rest of the world. Zunepass. One of their best features. USA only. Though Google has done the same thing with Google Voice for so long.
4) Stigma. A lot of people still think WinPho = WinMo.
5) No tablet strategy. That seems to be focused on Windows 8.
Who knows how it'll work out. But I do think it's wrong to write them off so quickly.
Yes, and to reach 50% globally they'd need to more than double their market share, you'd be looking at over 500% over 4 years.
It's pretty implausible. To put this into perspective, last quarter was amazing for iPhone in the US. It grew its share of the total handset market by 1.3% from 7%->8.3% - so incredibly strong growth. Even if it was to grow at the same rate linearly from now on, which is frankly unlikely, it would still fall short of 50% in the smartphone segment in the US, unless the smartphone market growth stalled.
Apple is doing great, and I'm sure they'll continue to do great. Their handset share is growing and I'm sure it will continue to grow. But Apple has constraints just like everybody else. Again, I don't think IDCs numbers are correct - I just think people need to put things into perspective.
The market is growing much faster up until now than IDC predicts for the future. They say
This year's smartphones shipments are expected to hit 472 million, up from 305 million last year, and then double to 982 million by the end of 2015.
That is 50% this year and another 100% to 2015 - which is about 19.5% compound per year.
IDC are predicting 18.2% for APple this year, our of 472M phones. Which is about 86M phones. ( Really?)
By 2015 Apple will have 16.9% of 982M = 166M. Thats, as you can see, predicting growth lower than the market, and about the same as Apple's unit growth in the last year.
In fact, if Apple maintains it's recent 80% growth it will get to 800M phones. Thats the nature of compound 80% growth. Its also the kind of growth which has propelled them from 1% to 18% of the market. Thats not likely but neither is the IDC's expectations, that Apple's growth has to drop off a cliff.
Nor, does it look like there will be supply constraints going forward. Apple doesn't have to match it's recent successes to get to 30%.
( I am taking IDC's figures for everything with a pinch of salt though. They may be totally wrong with units shipped).
Why would I pay $12.50 to license software I can't customize when there's a decent free alternative available?
Because if you don't microsoft will hammer you with $12.50 license fees for android too. In fact there is evidence that MS is using license fees to encourage OEM support of WP7 and that they're hitting android only shops with punitive fees.
At some point Google will have to pursuade an OEM to stand up to them, but if HTC is any indication most willl choose to cave.