Sustained growth of MacBook Air could provide $3.0B-per-year opportunity for Apple
Apple is poised to realize a $3.0 billion opportunity with its line of MacBook Air computers as "break-out" growth of the portables continues, according to one analyst.
In a note to investors on Thursday, analyst Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan revised his April estimates of a $2.2 billion a year revenue stream upward to reach the $3.0 billion figure. Moskowitz sees the average quarterly run rate of the MacBook Air reaching 700,000 units over the next 12-18 months.
According to Gartner's estimates, Apple shipped 432,000 MacBook Air units in the first quarter of 2011, up 412.9 percent year over year and 2.9 percent sequentially. In particular, Moskowitz sees the sequential growth as a positive sign of sustainable demand for the thin-and-light notebook.
The MacBook Air also significantly outpaced total Mac units (excluding the MacBook Air), which were down 10.5 percent sequentially in the first quarter of this year and the broader PC market, which was down 10.1 percent.
The current generation of MacBook Airs was released in October 2010 and became instant bestsellers. AppleInsider reported last week that Apple has readied an update to its MacBook Air line and will begin production this month with an initial run of 380,000 units. A subsequent report out of Taiwan mirrored the numbers, citing "industry sources." Analyst Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank believes sales of the new MacBook Airs could go as high as 1.5 million units per quarter.
Moskowitz sees Apple's iCloud and similar cloud-based services as driving a reduction in internal storage requirements, which should quicken adoption to the MacBook Air. J.P. Morgan estimates that currently just 3-4 percent of notebook PCS utilize Solid-State Drives instead of Hard Disk Drives.
The analyst believes the MacBook Air acts as a "a quasi-tablet for productivity," given its combination of tablet-like features such as ultra-portability, thinness, and instant-on with an integrated keyboard and a full computing applications suite.
International demand for the MacBook Air serves as evidence of plenty of room for growth, according to the analyst. By breaking out sales into regions, Moskowitz shows that the MacBook Air has a "fairly balanced" distribution and therefore maintains a "wide appeal."
Moskowitz does note that the MacBook Air's higher Average Selling Price may be a hurdle to sustained growth, but he predicts a $100 price drop for the MacBook Air in the next product refresh, due to "component cost declines and more integrated features." The current ASP of the MacBook Air is estimated to be $1,295, almost $300 more than the entry price.
In a note to investors on Thursday, analyst Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan revised his April estimates of a $2.2 billion a year revenue stream upward to reach the $3.0 billion figure. Moskowitz sees the average quarterly run rate of the MacBook Air reaching 700,000 units over the next 12-18 months.
According to Gartner's estimates, Apple shipped 432,000 MacBook Air units in the first quarter of 2011, up 412.9 percent year over year and 2.9 percent sequentially. In particular, Moskowitz sees the sequential growth as a positive sign of sustainable demand for the thin-and-light notebook.
The MacBook Air also significantly outpaced total Mac units (excluding the MacBook Air), which were down 10.5 percent sequentially in the first quarter of this year and the broader PC market, which was down 10.1 percent.
The current generation of MacBook Airs was released in October 2010 and became instant bestsellers. AppleInsider reported last week that Apple has readied an update to its MacBook Air line and will begin production this month with an initial run of 380,000 units. A subsequent report out of Taiwan mirrored the numbers, citing "industry sources." Analyst Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank believes sales of the new MacBook Airs could go as high as 1.5 million units per quarter.
Moskowitz sees Apple's iCloud and similar cloud-based services as driving a reduction in internal storage requirements, which should quicken adoption to the MacBook Air. J.P. Morgan estimates that currently just 3-4 percent of notebook PCS utilize Solid-State Drives instead of Hard Disk Drives.
The analyst believes the MacBook Air acts as a "a quasi-tablet for productivity," given its combination of tablet-like features such as ultra-portability, thinness, and instant-on with an integrated keyboard and a full computing applications suite.
International demand for the MacBook Air serves as evidence of plenty of room for growth, according to the analyst. By breaking out sales into regions, Moskowitz shows that the MacBook Air has a "fairly balanced" distribution and therefore maintains a "wide appeal."
Moskowitz does note that the MacBook Air's higher Average Selling Price may be a hurdle to sustained growth, but he predicts a $100 price drop for the MacBook Air in the next product refresh, due to "component cost declines and more integrated features." The current ASP of the MacBook Air is estimated to be $1,295, almost $300 more than the entry price.
Comments
I recall about 10 years ago when the large corporations i was working at (FMCG multinationals) basically stopped buying desktop PCs and started giving everyone notebooks.
It feels like we might be close to a similar tipping point for "thin & lite, SSD" laptops. Prices are now affordable, and even svelte-looking MBPs are starting to look and feel a little bulky compared to the new MBAs.
Most folks I know who currently sport MBPs are seriously considering MBAs for their next purchase. (Obviously a 15" model would help here...)
we do seem to have reached another tipping point with these devices.
I recall about 10 years ago when the large corporations i was working at (FMCG multinationals) basically stopped buying desktop PCs and started giving everyone notebooks.
It feels like we might be close to a similar tipping point for "thin & lite, SSD" laptops. Prices are now affordable, and even svelte-looking MBPs are starting to look and feel a little bulky compared to the new MBAs.
Most folks I know who currently sport MBPs are seriously considering MBAs for their next purchase. (Obviously a 15" model would help here...)
The 13" MBA can hold up to 256GB and it wasn't too long ago the aluminium MacBook with 250GB and 2GB RAM as that much. I know a lot of people with PCs that don't come close to using that much capacity. Now add to that the increased usage of satellite computers such as tablets and smartphones. If Apple creates the iOS/ARM-based Home Server product I want I an see the MacBook Air pushing even further into the Mac cut. I'd even consider getting one then (assuming the battery life was significantly increased).
we do seem to have reached another tipping point with these devices.
I recall about 10 years ago when the large corporations i was working at (FMCG multinationals) basically stopped buying desktop PCs and started giving everyone notebooks.
It feels like we might be close to a similar tipping point for "thin & lite, SSD" laptops. Prices are now affordable, and even svelte-looking MBPs are starting to look and feel a little bulky compared to the new MBAs.
Most folks I know who currently sport MBPs are seriously considering MBAs for their next purchase. (Obviously a 15" model would help here...)
Laptop are supposed to be portable I never understood why would anyone buy a 15' machine which clearly is not portable..13" is good enough.
Laptop are supposed to be portable I never understood why would anyone buy a 15' machine which clearly is not portable..13" is good enough.
Different needs. If your job is to edit Final Cut at various remote locations you don't want to haul an iMac around and you certainly don't want a 13" or smaller MBA. You might even find 17" as the most ideal size.
Laptop are supposed to be portable I never understood why would anyone buy a 15' machine which clearly is not portable..13" is good enough.
Coz people also use them as desktop replacements in the home/office. 13" is fine for use on the road but not so good when used all day at home/office.
we do seem to have reached another tipping point with these devices.
I recall about 10 years ago when the large corporations i was working at (FMCG multinationals) basically stopped buying desktop PCs and started giving everyone notebooks.
It feels like we might be close to a similar tipping point for "thin & lite, SSD" laptops. Prices are now affordable, and even svelte-looking MBPs are starting to look and feel a little bulky compared to the new MBAs.
Most folks I know who currently sport MBPs are seriously considering MBAs for their next purchase. (Obviously a 15" model would help here...)
I would absolutely love a 15" MBA. Unfortunately our IT folks don't allow WiFi in the lab's.
So no WiFi & no ethernet >> no access to the internet.
So for the time I will have to stick to my MBP 15"
The 13" MBA can hold up to 256GB and it wasn't too long ago the aluminium MacBook with 250GB and 2GB RAM as that much. I know a lot of people with PCs that don't come close to using that much capacity. Now add to that the increased usage of satellite computers such as tablets and smartphones. If Apple creates the iOS/ARM-based Home Server product I want I an see the MacBook Air pushing even further into the Mac cut. I'd even consider getting one then (assuming the battery life was significantly increased).
What I feel is missing from this whole ecosystem is a recognition that an OSX device, the Air etc, can be one of the satellite devices like an iOS device.
Currently, any OSX Mac behaves as if we are still in the old days when it would be the household's only computer and hold all content itself.
There's some syncing, but it's still syncing between vertically complete systems that each consider themselves your only computer.
I would get an Air, and be very happy with smaller storage if I knew I could have a light version of my main Mac's content, without having to manually manage it all.
An example would be for OSX iTunes to be taggable as a slave/mobile copy.
It would contain only content in playlists referenced to another iTunes installation against the same Apple ID and perhaps have some iCloud access too.
I would absolutely love a 15" MBA. Unfortunately our IT folks don't allow WiFi in the lab's.
So no WiFi & no ethernet >> no access to the internet.
So for the time I will have to stick to my MBP 15"
Just get the Ethernet adapter for the MacBook Air?
Wait, I thought the ipad was going to kill notebook sales.
PC notebook sales. As it is different and it is not the "incompatible" Mac of the '90s that doesn't have as many applications as Windows.
wait, i thought the ipad was going to kill netbook sales.
t, ftfy
Laptop are supposed to be portable I never understood why would anyone buy a 15' machine which clearly is not portable..13" is good enough.
Someone at work sold her 15" MBP to buy a 17" HP laptop. I said why not go for a real light mobile laptop and just buy a 24" moniter for home use? She has no room to put a dock station and she wanted a bigger screen.
She went from a mac back to a windows machine because her boyfriend cant stand Apple products and he was not supporting her on any problems or questions. Second reason was shortcuts difference in MS word between the windows version (work) and the mac version (home). Apparently you cant customize the mac version to match the windows version. (I check for a few hours and could'nt find a solution either)
When are the new MBA coming out?!?
Right now they don't have much to worry about. But in a couple of years it will be pretty appealing to start up whate ever PC, Laptop, Pad, or Phone, and continue working on any and every project you may want.
Apple will also have to outdo Google before Chrome becomes popular.
Right now they don't have much to worry about. But in a couple of years it will be pretty appealing to start up whate ever PC, Laptop, Pad, or Phone, and continue working on any and every project you may want.
Don't need Chrome for that. Won't need to wait a couple years.
Different needs. If your job is to edit Final Cut at various remote locations you don't want to haul an iMac around and you certainly don't want a 13" or smaller MBA. You might even find 17" as the most ideal size.
I use a 17" MBP and am on the road 75% of the time and don't find it too big or too heavy.
Actually, I thought the Macbook Air would be a flop as a result. I didn't see how a 13" Macbook could be considered too heavy, so I didn't think people would want to get a less powerful option just because it was lighter, and I envisaged the Macbook Air being somewhat like the G4 Cube - a fine engineering achievement, but not what the market wanted.
I'm happy to have been proven wrong.
I use a 17" MBP and am on the road 75% of the time and don't find it too big or too heavy.
Actually, I thought the Macbook Air would be a flop as a result. I didn't see how a 13" Macbook could be considered too heavy, so I didn't think people would want to get a less powerful option just because it was lighter, and I envisaged the Macbook Air being somewhat like the G4 Cube - a fine engineering achievement, but not what the market wanted.
I'm happy to have been proven wrong.
Definitely that different needs thing. I have the 2x6-core tower as my main work machine, and wanted something light that lets me work but in no way needs to replace my 'real' machine in terms of capability.
The 11" MBA is incredibly sweet, actually reasonable on compiles thanks to the SSD, and I can even open it on the tray table of an airplane without it getting crushed. Would I want to work on it daily in the office? Hell no, not without a bigger monitor and external storage, etc., but as the on-the-road machine it's absolutely fantastic.
The funny thing is that when people see my MBA and try it out, most suddenly start wondering if they couldn't do the same - and with the new Sandy Bridge chipset coming, I suspect more will be going that route.
But you know, before the 4GB option, I wouldn't have considered it either...
I would absolutely love a 15" MBA. Unfortunately our IT folks don't allow WiFi in the lab's.
So no WiFi & no ethernet >> no access to the internet.
So for the time I will have to stick to my MBP 15"
As someone else mentioned, get the ethernet -> USB adapter. Or are you saying you're not allowed wired ethernet either and need to have a 3G card or something?
As someone else mentioned, get the ethernet -> USB adapter. Or are you saying you're not allowed wired ethernet either and need to have a 3G card or something?
I'm thinking his biggest problem will be getting a 15" MBA in the first place.