If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.
Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.
Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!
Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.
Actually, Apple is already worth more than most countries in the world.
One way to value the stock is to back out the cash. So if P/E is 12 today and cash accounts for 25% of the value, you back out the cash and get a modified P/E of 9.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor
Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).
But still, it's just a bump in the road. Europe is in a real economic crisis and Apple hasn't added as many new stores in China as they had hoped. Plus there were fire sales last quarter as competitors liquidated inventory of their failed tablet efforts and that might have distracted some consumers. None of those things are permanent and Apple still totally dominates the market.
Longer term, the key sales figure is how many iPads apple sells between now and the introduction of Windows 8 tablets next year (I think those will be the real competitors to iPads -- not the lame Android copy-cats that we've seen so far). If Apple is selling about 25 million iPads per quarter (so an annualized rate of 100 million) at the time that Win8 tablets hit the market, then I think Apple will have achieved an insurmountable lead. But if Apple is selling in the range of 15 million per quarter at that time then MS could have an opening. My money is on the higher number.
Yeah, there's always something else that's going to give Apple a run for its money. Eventually, something will do so - but it's sort of silly to be making that prediction based on nothing but speculation.
At it is, Apple has an overwhelming majority of tablet sales. I don't believe the figures Digitimes is publishing - I don't think I've ever seen a non- Apple tablet in the wild (other than the older Windows tablets). The only tablet that seems to have sold in significant numbers is the $99 Touchpad - which is clearly not particularly relevant to Apple. Perhaps the Fire might have sold a lot, but, again, that's not really a competitor.
What really strikes me, is the 5.7Mio non iPad's, and yet I haven't seen a single one in the wild. In my region, they are sitting on shelfs collecting dust layers
Thanks for that. Got a chance to get some November calls $5 below where they should be. If you look at the Apple 2.0 blog, the 13MM number was the independent analysts consensus, so if history repeats itself they should be between 13.5 and 13.7MM.
Apple might have wanted to sell more, but after looking at my 3rd Quarter 401k statement it would have been a lofty goal. Without the BS in Washington and Europe, I imagine they would have sold closer to 15MM.
They beat analysts' expectations and this is a bad thing?
Tough audience here today...
Read the article first. The analyst is not happy with +300% Y0Y growth.
The posters here have issues with the analyst trying to give the impression that 13 million iPads sold last quarter is not impressive. Hence the stock manipulation comments.
New technologies used to take 12 to 18 months to achieve just 1 million units in sales from multiple manufacturers. Apple is selling iPads, a device that no one HAS to have, in the worst economy since the 1930s, with high levels of unemployment in most countries, at a current rate of 50 million units per year (assuming the 13 million can be extended to all quarters) and they sold 3-4 million iPhones in the first weekend as well?
These kinds of sales levels would have been considered absolutely impossible just five years ago even for totally new products, never mind for upgraded models of existing products. In fact, these would have been considered great ANNUAL sales numbers.
While I've been a big Apple fan for decades, even I thought that Apple was going to have a very rough time in the recession. Apple proves that even in a recession, consumers (at least those people who are still working) move to quality.
Because of this incredibly stupid report, I bet Apple stock drops today.
The iPhone 4S will give a nice bump to the figures today!
Except for the fact that the financial reports today will not include the iPhone4S since it was released after the quarter ended. So WTF are you talking about?
Median income for all families in 2009 was $60,088.
I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, but shompa actually UNDERestimated median family incomes, at least according to your own source.
That's because most families have 2 working adults...so the median income for the family is the sum. Additionally, I am not sure how single adults are classified. It seems to me they are excluded, which again, pushes up the median family income.
Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
From the article you are commenting on:
"In addition, if Apple were to have sold 13 million iPads last quarter, that number would exceed Wall Street expectations. In general, analysts have called for Apple to report sales of around 11 million iPads."
Maybe actually reading the article, and understanding the article, are steps to be taken prior to making snarky generic comments?
Digitimes always says that whatever Apple shipped is below its internal target. The dumbest fucking publication I've ever seen. They just make shit up. What kind of journalism standards do they have there?
Buy, hold for the long haul, and forget about the quarter-to-quarter chatter. All noise.
Would that strategy have served you well in the year 2000 time frame? In a few quarters, the stock lost 75% of its value. It took many, many years to recover. Many other equally high-flying companies never recovered. One size does not fit all, and every high-flying company comes down to earth, often in the space of a very few calendar quarters.
It depends entirely upon how overweighted your portfolio is in the sector and the company. It depends whether AAPL is a core holding, or is part of your "play money". It depends on many, many factors.
But if you think just buying and forgetting is the way to manage a portfolio, go for it. Tell me - are your holdings 100% in AAPL? Why or why not?
If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.
Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.
Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!
Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.
Actually if you track the P/E of most companies in S&P, their P/E has been shrinking over the years. Apple is not alone. US stocks currently have very low PEG compared to a few years ago.
The reason is hard to be sure of, but probably because retail investors have been staying away from the market due to higher and higher volatility over the past few years.
New technologies used to take 12 to 18 months to achieve just 1 million units in sales from multiple manufacturers. Apple is selling iPads, a device that no one HAS to have, in the worst economy since the 1930s, with high levels of unemployment in most countries, at a current rate of 50 million units per year (assuming the 13 million can be extended to all quarters) and they sold 3-4 million iPhones in the first weekend as well?
These kinds of sales levels would have been considered absolutely impossible just five years ago even for totally new products, never mind for upgraded models of existing products. In fact, these would have been considered great ANNUAL sales numbers.
While I've been a big Apple fan for decades, even I thought that Apple was going to have a very rough time in the recession. Apple proves that even in a recession, consumers (at least those people who are still working) move to quality.
Because of this incredibly stupid report, I bet Apple stock drops today.
It's not just quality. It's the apps. If you can't buy a lot of stuff, the second choice is to be able to buy something that can BE a lot of stuff.
If I get an iPad, I can play games, it's like having a new computer, I can do all this great stuff with it...
Comments
If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.
Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.
Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!
Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.
Actually, Apple is already worth more than most countries in the world.
One way to value the stock is to back out the cash. So if P/E is 12 today and cash accounts for 25% of the value, you back out the cash and get a modified P/E of 9.
Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).
But still, it's just a bump in the road. Europe is in a real economic crisis and Apple hasn't added as many new stores in China as they had hoped. Plus there were fire sales last quarter as competitors liquidated inventory of their failed tablet efforts and that might have distracted some consumers. None of those things are permanent and Apple still totally dominates the market.
Longer term, the key sales figure is how many iPads apple sells between now and the introduction of Windows 8 tablets next year (I think those will be the real competitors to iPads -- not the lame Android copy-cats that we've seen so far). If Apple is selling about 25 million iPads per quarter (so an annualized rate of 100 million) at the time that Win8 tablets hit the market, then I think Apple will have achieved an insurmountable lead. But if Apple is selling in the range of 15 million per quarter at that time then MS could have an opening. My money is on the higher number.
Yeah, there's always something else that's going to give Apple a run for its money. Eventually, something will do so - but it's sort of silly to be making that prediction based on nothing but speculation.
At it is, Apple has an overwhelming majority of tablet sales. I don't believe the figures Digitimes is publishing - I don't think I've ever seen a non- Apple tablet in the wild (other than the older Windows tablets). The only tablet that seems to have sold in significant numbers is the $99 Touchpad - which is clearly not particularly relevant to Apple. Perhaps the Fire might have sold a lot, but, again, that's not really a competitor.
If Apple reports something wild like 16 million, watch the heads explode, but 13.5 -14.5 is more likely...
The street expects 10 millions, anything above is good.
Median income for men in the US (2009) is about $32,000 and women, $21,000. See Table 701, http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s0701.pdf
You may be talking about the mean.
Look at the first table on the page you provided.
Median income for all families in 2009 was $60,088.
I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, but shompa actually UNDERestimated median family incomes, at least according to your own source.
Apple might have wanted to sell more, but after looking at my 3rd Quarter 401k statement it would have been a lofty goal. Without the BS in Washington and Europe, I imagine they would have sold closer to 15MM.
Ah yes, the grand conspiracy.
They beat analysts' expectations and this is a bad thing?
Tough audience here today...
Read the article first. The analyst is not happy with +300% Y0Y growth.
The posters here have issues with the analyst trying to give the impression that 13 million iPads sold last quarter is not impressive. Hence the stock manipulation comments.
New technologies used to take 12 to 18 months to achieve just 1 million units in sales from multiple manufacturers. Apple is selling iPads, a device that no one HAS to have, in the worst economy since the 1930s, with high levels of unemployment in most countries, at a current rate of 50 million units per year (assuming the 13 million can be extended to all quarters) and they sold 3-4 million iPhones in the first weekend as well?
These kinds of sales levels would have been considered absolutely impossible just five years ago even for totally new products, never mind for upgraded models of existing products. In fact, these would have been considered great ANNUAL sales numbers.
While I've been a big Apple fan for decades, even I thought that Apple was going to have a very rough time in the recession. Apple proves that even in a recession, consumers (at least those people who are still working) move to quality.
Because of this incredibly stupid report, I bet Apple stock drops today.
The iPhone 4S will give a nice bump to the figures today!
Except for the fact that the financial reports today will not include the iPhone4S since it was released after the quarter ended. So WTF are you talking about?
Look at the first table on the page you provided.
Median income for all families in 2009 was $60,088.
I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, but shompa actually UNDERestimated median family incomes, at least according to your own source.
That's because most families have 2 working adults...so the median income for the family is the sum. Additionally, I am not sure how single adults are classified. It seems to me they are excluded, which again, pushes up the median family income.
Tough audience here today...
Trolls, just as stupid.
Two words, baby:
Amazon. Fire.
[insult removed]
Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
How did they find out 'internal goals'?
# of orders received by Foxconn.
Of course, this may be true if the Digitimes rumor is to be believed.
Or, it could be some Apple employee getting drunk at a SF bar and spilling the beans.
Less than 15 million would be a little disappointing (at least to me).
Why ?
A little perspective: 15 million is approximately the number of notebooks that HP AND Dell is selling per quarter.
Wow! Look! Record sales and almost 40% sequential growth!!! Better than the industry by far.
But that's never enough for analysts huh?
From the article you are commenting on:
"In addition, if Apple were to have sold 13 million iPads last quarter, that number would exceed Wall Street expectations. In general, analysts have called for Apple to report sales of around 11 million iPads."
Maybe actually reading the article, and understanding the article, are steps to be taken prior to making snarky generic comments?
Naw. Please keep doing whatever you like to do.
Buy, hold for the long haul, and forget about the quarter-to-quarter chatter. All noise.
Would that strategy have served you well in the year 2000 time frame? In a few quarters, the stock lost 75% of its value. It took many, many years to recover. Many other equally high-flying companies never recovered. One size does not fit all, and every high-flying company comes down to earth, often in the space of a very few calendar quarters.
It depends entirely upon how overweighted your portfolio is in the sector and the company. It depends whether AAPL is a core holding, or is part of your "play money". It depends on many, many factors.
But if you think just buying and forgetting is the way to manage a portfolio, go for it. Tell me - are your holdings 100% in AAPL? Why or why not?
If Apple wasn't the world largest market cap company, it would be valued totally different.
Just 2 years ago Apple had a P/E high 20is.
Today P/E 17 and trailing P/E2. Apple valuation is almost 50% less then 3 years ago.
Apple will today have 80-100 billion in cash. That is 20-25% of their share price!
Apple have an average growth of 63% last 5 years. P/E should be upwards 60-100 if it was valued as other companies. The problem is that Apple would be worth more then most countries in the world.
Actually if you track the P/E of most companies in S&P, their P/E has been shrinking over the years. Apple is not alone. US stocks currently have very low PEG compared to a few years ago.
The reason is hard to be sure of, but probably because retail investors have been staying away from the market due to higher and higher volatility over the past few years.
Expectations have become absurdly ridiculous.
New technologies used to take 12 to 18 months to achieve just 1 million units in sales from multiple manufacturers. Apple is selling iPads, a device that no one HAS to have, in the worst economy since the 1930s, with high levels of unemployment in most countries, at a current rate of 50 million units per year (assuming the 13 million can be extended to all quarters) and they sold 3-4 million iPhones in the first weekend as well?
These kinds of sales levels would have been considered absolutely impossible just five years ago even for totally new products, never mind for upgraded models of existing products. In fact, these would have been considered great ANNUAL sales numbers.
While I've been a big Apple fan for decades, even I thought that Apple was going to have a very rough time in the recession. Apple proves that even in a recession, consumers (at least those people who are still working) move to quality.
Because of this incredibly stupid report, I bet Apple stock drops today.
It's not just quality. It's the apps. If you can't buy a lot of stuff, the second choice is to be able to buy something that can BE a lot of stuff.
If I get an iPad, I can play games, it's like having a new computer, I can do all this great stuff with it...