Holiday iPhone, Mac sales ahead of expectations, iPad 'a little light'

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Indications from Apple's supply chain suggest that iPhone and Mac sales are picking up strength ahead of Christmas, while the iPad remains on pace for a record setting quarter, albeit with softer sales than expected.



Analyst Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee issued an update to investors on Wednesday on Apple's current quarter, which concludes in about three and a half weeks. His checks within the company's global supply chain found that iPhone momentum has been strong across the board, with strong sales of the iPhone 4S, as well as the iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS.



"This is helping drive greater smartphone adoption as well as enabling share gains against Android and BlackBerry (as evidenced with both HTC and RIMM missing numbers)," Wu wrote. "Our supplier checks indicate much improved production capacity but demand continues to outstrip supply."



Wu has accordingly raised his forecast for iPhone sales this quarter to 28 million, up from 26 million. He has also raised his projected Mac sales to 5.2 million, up from 5 million, based particularly on the strength of Apple's thin-and-light MacBook Air.



Last month, one report said that the MacBook Air now accounts for 28 percent of all of Apple's notebook shipments. The product line, revamped in late 2010, has proven to be so popular that Apple is rumored to expand it with a new 15-inch model in 2012.



While the iPhone and Mac are reportedly ahead of Wu's expectations, he said iPad shipments are "a little light" in the current quarter, prompting him to reduce projected sales from 15 million to 13.5 million. Wu said iPad sales are soft partially due to competition from the Amazon Kindle Fire, but also because some users are opting for a more full-featured MacBook Air.







Even if Wu's prediction were to prove accurate, 13.5 million iPad units sold in the holiday quarter would be a new record for Apple. The company's previous best of 11.2 million iPads came in its last fiscal quarter, along with a record 4.89 million Macs.



Wu's claims do align with what a separate analyst indicated on Tuesday, when T. Michael Walkley with Canaccord Genuity reduced projected iPad sales by a million units to 13 million. Walkley said iPad sales are allegedly slowing due to the expected debut of a new iPad in early 2012, as well as new competition from the $199 Kindle Fire. But Walkley also said any loss of iPad market share will be more than offset by fourth-quarter iPhone sales, which he expects to be 30.5 million units.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 42
    Sleep in peace, Steve ...
  • Reply 2 of 42
    wingswings Posts: 261member
    iPhone and Mac sales above expectations won't matter one bit if any other Apple product is even 1% less than the wildest forecast. The stock vampires will suck the blood out of AAPL with just the slightest hint of any product, no matter how small, not exceeding expectations.
  • Reply 3 of 42
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    That guy pulls everything out of his butt.



    Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy
  • Reply 4 of 42
    ThE "light" iPad sales are not surprising considering all thr competitors are clearing inventory at fire sale prices. Additionally, the Kindle should hurt a bit right now, but once customers realize it is no iPad, the kindle effect should subside also. Finally, most are expecting a big iPad 3 update, so that is the next step for Apple
  • Reply 5 of 42
    Apple ought to start a program to let disappointed Kindle Fire buyers trade up to an iPad.



    My sense is that almost all Kindle Fire buyers would prefer an iPad, all else being equal, but the $199 loss leader price is irresistible.
  • Reply 6 of 42
    Of course the iPad sales rate is slower, Microsoft has completed buying one for all it's employees, developers and friends. (MS may buy more as a give-a-way(free) if you buy Office for the iPad when it comes out),
  • Reply 7 of 42
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    That guy pulls everything out of his butt.



    Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy



    The only people that analysts like Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee has to answer to are his bosses and their clients. If you think that he doesn't realize the interest, or the lack there of, of the general public you are mistaken. Using such volatile information as you have accounted for, in his line of work would soon get him fired.



    Perhaps you would appreciate his recent report on RIMM.



    Research in Motion, Shaw Wu Only Regrets He Didn?t Downgrade You Sooner
  • Reply 8 of 42
    Some of us are waiting to spend our money on iPads with retina displays.
  • Reply 9 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tikiman View Post


    Some of us are waiting to spend our money on iPads with retina displays.



    Yea like me
  • Reply 10 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Onhka View Post


    The only people that analysts like Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee has to answer to are his bosses and their clients. If you think that he doesn't realize the interest, or the lack there of, of the general public you are mistaken. Using such volatile information as you have accounted for, in his line of work would soon get him fired.



    Perhaps you would appreciate his recent report on RIMM.



    Research in Motion, Shaw Wu Only Regrets He Didn?t Downgrade You Sooner



    After reading that RIMM report I'd fire the bastard for sure. Had he gotten it right in October (about RIM) he could have saved his clients 33% of their money... and he still hasn't put a sell on that company because he believes it is a takeover target. Really??!! Takeover at $6 maybe but by that time Wu's clients might as well just write off their investment. Wu should have screamed sell RIMM and buy AAPL in June.
  • Reply 11 of 42
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    That guy pulls everything out of his butt.



    Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy



    'Everyone' is expecting a new iPad in January? I think you're greatly confused about how many people read rumors sites. Besides, even if you spend a lot of time on sites like this, I doubt if many people get the impression that there will be a new iPad in January. Probably April, but there's no reason to think it will be January. In any event, 99% of the population wouldn't be hearing those rumors at all.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post


    ThE "light" iPad sales are not surprising considering all thr competitors are clearing inventory at fire sale prices. Additionally, the Kindle should hurt a bit right now, but once customers realize it is no iPad, the kindle effect should subside also. Finally, most are expecting a big iPad 3 update, so that is the next step for Apple



    Yes, it is not surprising that a few people who were on the fence about an iPad might choose a Fire instead. Or cases like the one where a mother decided to buy a Kindle Fire for each kid rather than a shared iPad. The Fire will undoubtedly affect Apple's iPad sales temporarily.



    In the long run, though, I don't see it having too much impact. The Fire is mostly going to people who wouldn't have been iPad customers, anyway (or who will buy both). Plus, I doubt if Amazon's shareholders will be happy with them bleeding red ink indefinitely. I suspect that the next generation Fire will be significantly more expensive (or will be substantially less capable). Add in the fact that initial reports on the Fire are not overwhelmingly positive, so many Fire customers will end up buying their iPads, anyway.



    So it will have a short term impact, but won't be a major issue for the long run.
  • Reply 12 of 42
    jnjnjnjnjnjn Posts: 588member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xavier83 View Post


    Yea like me



    And me.
  • Reply 13 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,803member
    only for apple would record setting profit numbers and sales/shipments would be disappointing.



    let's see this in other fields: baseball, A-Rod is projected to hit 800 HR in his career. If he "only" breaks Barry's record with 760, it would be a disappointment.
  • Reply 14 of 42
    Waiting for iPad 3. It took a while for the iPad specific apps to 'mature,' so I skipped 1 and 2. Now I can see a need for a device between my 17-inch MBP and my iPhone 4.



    Next year, iPad 3 and iPhone 5.



    Oh, and the 'Television' that Steve 'cracked.'



    2012 will be hugh (huge).
  • Reply 15 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


    only for apple would record setting profit numbers and sales/shipments would be disappointing.



    let's see this in other fields: baseball, A-Rod is projected to hit 800 HR in his career. If he "only" breaks Barry's record with 760, it would be a disappointment.



    Actually... if he hit 798 it would be a disappointment.



    That would be a closer analogy to Apple and its relationship with the investment community.
  • Reply 16 of 42
    neilmneilm Posts: 874member
    Wu said: iPad shipments are "a little light" in the current quarter, prompting [him] to reduce projected sales from 15 million to 13.5 million.



    Translation: The new iPad estimate I pulled out of my ass is different from the previous estimate I pulled out of my ass.
  • Reply 17 of 42
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    After reading that RIMM report I'd fire the bastard for sure. Had he gotten it right in October (about RIM) he could have saved his clients 33% of their money... and he still hasn't put a sell on that company because he believes it is a takeover target. Really??!! Takeover at $6 maybe but by that time Wu's clients might as well just write off their investment. Wu should have screamed sell RIMM and buy AAPL in June.



    And you could do better? Maybe there is correspondence course that you could take from your secluded island, real or otherwise.



    But first, I think you need some education about the job and what intelligent investor are aware of before they commit themselves..



    There are reasons why investors are successful and others fail. But relying on bloggers seldom wins out in the long run, as the dot com bust has proven.
  • Reply 18 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Onhka View Post


    And you could do better? Maybe there is correspondence course that you could take from your secluded island, real or otherwise.



    But first, I think you need some education about the job and what intelligent investor are aware of before they commit themselves..



    There are reasons why investors are successful and others fail. But relying on bloggers seldom wins out in the long run, as the dot com bust has proven.



    ... and, of course, you had to make this personal.



    Yes... I can do better. I got out of RIMM a long time ago. What stock remained in my portfolio.... hmmmm... you really need to ask.



    Now tell me, who do you think did better... those people who stayed in RIMM using Wu's advice, or me, who stayed with AAPL.



    You asked.
  • Reply 19 of 42
    I (and quite a few people I know) are holding off on buying an iPad, on the assumption that iPad 3 will be along fairly soon in the new year.



    I know it's a guess, but Apple seem to have hit a fairly consistent one year refresh on their mobile devices, and I would expect they do the same for the iPad. The same thing seemed to happen with the iPhone last quarter as people held off to see what the 4S would be, now that seems to be going gangbusters again.
  • Reply 20 of 42
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    ... and, of course, you had to make this personal.



    Yes... I can do better. I got out of RIMM a long time ago. What stock remained in my portfolio.... hmmmm... you really need to ask.



    Now tell me, who do you think did better... those people who stayed in RIMM using Wu's advice, or me, who stayed with AAPL.



    You asked.



    I don't recall Wu recommending to get out of APPL and buying RIMM



    Wu's job is to review portfolios, analyze, declare the protocol/criteria utilized and write a report for his 'only for their eyes' superiors.



    And unless you are on their clients/prospectives' correspondence list, I doubt that you have ever seen anything worth making a judgement on.



    As for me, I never owned anything of RIM's. And since January, 1984, virtually nearly every Apple product ever made, and lots of them.
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