The next ten years of Mac OS X

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  • Reply 41 of 67
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    As I?m not a shareholder, like most consumers, I'll judge the difference on profit alone, not share price, with Apple making US$ 25.922 billion, and Microsoft making US$ 23.15 billion in 2011 (Wikipedia), not such a vast difference after all.



    Sorry, I wasn't addressing a pissing match between AAPL and MSFT. I was pointing out the difference between your comparison of Apple's Mac minority share among PCs and Microsoft's failure to launch WP7 after letting WM6 fall off a cliff.



    Microsoft's revenues come from Windows, Server and Office. WP7 is thrown in with Xbox, Zune and other efforts that are basically experiments to find new ways to make money outside of the PC monopoly. They have all been rather tremendous failures if you look at how much money was put in to get the results obtained. WP7 has been an extreme failure.



    Quote:

    Windows Phone 7.5 is a new platform, but I highly doubt it is only one percent of the market, I'm sure I have seen higher statistics than that, assuming they are even accurate.



    WP7 is a "new platform" in a BS marketing sense because MS wants you to forget about WM6. But there's nothing new about MS' business in mobile phones. Unlike Apple, it didn't have to develop a channel or muscle its way into the market. Despite many years of head start and all of its partners (including Samsung, LG, Sony, and now NOKIA!!) WP7 has been an absolute failure.



    You don't have to take my figures as gospel, but don't doubt them based on what you'd like to believe and suggest there must be a better number without actually pointing out a source to disprove it. WP7 hasn't sold worth a damn.



    Quote:

    I expect an improvement in market share this year, especially near the end of the year (with Apollo and superphones, and tango and low-end phones). I don't see Microsoft leaving the sector, it's to important.



    You could have observed the same thing over the last couple years about the Zune. There is no momentum for WP7. It is dead in the water, and vaporware PR about "exciting" phones that won't be sold for another year was part of the failed strategy MS used last year. It didn't work out well.



    Quote:

    The Zune was a closed harwarde solution, that wouldn't allow Microsoft to build a true open platform, following their Windows business model. There is a growing 'mind share' of people who have positive experiences with WP7.5, and enjoy the fresh interface.



    Hilarious! The Zune was a response to the iPod after the "open" WM PlaysForSure failed, just like WP7 failed over the past year and is showing no signs of life apart from cheerleading by some fans. That didn't help PFS or the Zune, did it? It also won't turn around WP7.



    You can' t drop a product into the market and let it fail for a year and then expect it to turn around. Ask Google about Google TV or Buzz or Honeycomb. They're not taking off again.



    Quote:

    I believe the market for PC's that cost more than US $900 is larger than you think...A lot of gamers, enthusiats and business people still buy mid to high end systems



    What you believe isn't as important as what the reality is. Apple owns the vast majority of PC sales above $900. Google for facts, don't just tell me what you believe must be the case. Here's some help:



    http://www.google.com/search?q=Apple+market+share+PC+$1000



    The answer was +90% a couple years ago. PC prices haven't gone up since.
  • Reply 42 of 67
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post


    Windows 8 rewrites the rule book. Frantic innovation ahead by both companies. Linux, not so much.



    Linux as a desktop OS is fading into history. the "consumerization" of computing is morphing OS's into hybrid cloud/portable device ecosystems, and no one is bothering to work on this huge task for Linux.



    of course open source fans delude themselves that the continuing Linux kernel adaptations - most of all Android of course - is somehow carrying the Linux OS thread forward. well, as an industrial core component that powers a lot of devices, yes there is still a life for Linux. but not as a top level UI.
  • Reply 43 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    That's rather silly, You could have said after Cheetah, there was no room for anything faster.



    The "code name" of the OS doesn't matter at all, nor does the version number. They're both arbitrary marketing names. The only thing Apple needs to concern itself with is making sure that its developing a product the mass market will buy.



    There are all sorts of incremental improvements Apple can make to OS X every year or year & a half. It's pretty stupendous for one to suggest that technology has reached a peak just because one is too unfamiliar with what's on the horizon to understand what might be next.



    I fully admit that my argument is thin, but if you were to ask someone what big cat Apple would have saved for OSX10.9, I think most would agree it would be Lion.



    I don't doubt that we could see iterative improvements for several years, and that this particular desktop paradigm can and likely will continue to evolve and mature. That said, if Apple did have a sea change in the works (and who knows what that means), they're not going to release a 10.8 and 10.9 and just tread water if they're ready to make a bigger shift.
  • Reply 44 of 67
    firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,502member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    WP7 and MacOSX deserve more market share because they clearly are competitive products, irrespective of the companies total profit.



    BTW try not to get trolled. The idea that any product that earns less profit than Apple does must be a complete failure identifies a Dilger-esk level of stupidity.



    You can talk about great products, or you can talk about profits. Start mixing them too much and you end up at a straw man party.
  • Reply 45 of 67
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    hate to quibble, but no one on earth has a clue where computing will be in 10 years. the pace of evolution and disruption has picked up dramatically in the last few years, starting with the iPhone. everything mentioned in this article is within a 5 year horizon at most. which makes sense, since that is about as far ahead as current trends can be envisioned.



    all we can really say is all consumer products will get "smarter," simpler, and usually cheaper. how much of our daily activities will be almost invisibly managed and delivered by digital assistants of all kinds in 2022 is anyone's guess.



    near term, no doubt Jobs left Apple with a 5 year roadmap of some kind, and some product plans that will take two or three more years of R&D before they are ready for sale. and it's a totally safe bet that iOS and OS X will continue to grow closer if not almost merge.
  • Reply 46 of 67
    capnbobcapnbob Posts: 388member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    Yeah I get it, Apple swim around in all their money. It's funny when I see Microsoft bitter fans on this site, still using "$icrosoft" as if it is still relevant and witty.



    My relationship with a company is solely based on the quality of their products, as with most consumers. Apple is not better just because they make more money, that's ridiculous. Like saying Microsoft has always been better, when they were making more money than Apple.



    I don't see any statistics to back up the low share of $1000 machines (or "gamers and trustafarian nerds" as you like to call them, but I know a lot of people with expensive traditional desktops machines. For instance how would statistic creators know the true system value of every store bought, and custom built PC in New Zealand? They wouldn't...



    As for the margins PC makers make, that's got nothing to do with Microsoft. But I believe it's natural for there to be winners, losers, and complainers in this price war, but ultimately the markets not going anywhere. Proprietary Mac's are not going to take over anytime some



    Your relationship to a company is yours alone and is not relevant to a discussion of the industry and corporate performance. My product choices are not based on company dynamics but my appreciation for them as a corporate entity does.



    MS does of course contribute to the low margins on PCs since the $50-80 slice they take off the top kills the OEMs margins especially on cheap machines.



    The low share of high-value machines is clear in the low ASPs of the mainstream PC vendors. HPs's is less than half of Apple's (~$650) meaning that it has a lot of cheap machines in the mix. Nothing inherently wrong with that, it is just where the market is. Custom PCs are a market irrelevance so would hardly upset a true accounting of the market value.



    The PC market is not going anywhere but inexorably down - unit growth is negligible, margins are... marginal. Nibbled away by tablets, smartphones and the general webification of things. Expensive, high-powered terminals will not be required to get most "jobs" done over the next few years. Devices aren't going away, but they are changing. This will also impact Macs but Apple has carved out a much more defensible spot in the market than the other traditional manufacturers and it is ready for the cannibalization. You say there a winners, losers and complainers... the only real winners in PCs these days are MS, Intel and Apple - all the other major players are struggling (even HP).
  • Reply 47 of 67
    firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,502member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ...being driven by iOS, the mobile edition of Mac OS X
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bloodshotrollin'red View Post


    Pardon?





    Maybe I'm just cynical, but I think Dillger plans to plant some "revisionist history" seeds... so he has started to till the soil a bit.



    My guess is that in part two of "the next ten years of Mac OS X" Dillger will have Apple bringing OSX and iOS together.



    So that he can paint Apple as the trail blazer and everyone else as hopeless copycats he needs to pretend that OSX and iOS are similar versions of the same OS, and that Apple had this planned all along.



    Then again I could be completely and utterly wrong (it wouldn't be the first time! ). We'll have to wait for part two of the series to see!
  • Reply 48 of 67
    Quote:

    The answer was +90% a couple years ago. PC prices haven't gone up since



    http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple...-pcs-says-npd/

    To bad the statistics you refer to are from NPD, a North American market research company, That wouldn't apply here in NZ, or many other countries. Also the staticstic is outdated, Windows 7 would have has some effect on this.

    Also plenty of people still get custom PC's, this doesn't necessarily mean home built, but you choose the parts and another company puts it together, there are some great companies in New Zealand and Austrailia, and if maket segements lke this are ignored, it's not a fair comparison. For instance I have have help customize two PC's for my workplace, and another worker also customized other machines, which the company has bought. I also have suggested computers to other people, who have gone on to buy them.
  • Reply 49 of 67
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    Yeah I get it, Apple swim around in all their money. It's funny when I see Microsoft bitter fans on this site, still using "$icrosoft" as if it is still relevant and witty.



    My relationship with a company is solely based on the quality of their products, as with most consumers. Apple is not better just because they make more money, that's ridiculous. Like saying Microsoft has always been better, when they were making more money than Apple.



    I don't see any statistics to back up the low share of $1000 machines (or "gamers and trustafarian nerds" as you like to call them, but I know a lot of people with expensive traditional desktops machines. For instance how would statistic creators know the true system value of every store bought, and custom built PC in New Zealand? They wouldn't...



    As for the margins PC makers make, that's got nothing to do with Microsoft. But I believe it's natural for there to be winners, losers, and complainers in this price war, but ultimately the markets not going anywhere. Proprietary Mac's are not going to take over anytime some



    Apple earned its money by creating products people chose to buy on the open market next to a wide range of competitors.



    Microsoft collected its revenues by taxing PC sales as it illegally forced competitors out of business, preventing Windows from ever being challenged by alternative PC platforms, the web, Java, NCs, and so on until Steve Jobs kicked its ass and broke through the monopoly in a way nobody else managed to do.



    That's a pretty significant distinction. I wonder why you are so impressed with Windows 8. It is Windows 7 with a layer of Zune interface on it and a copycat App Store. What's so impressive about that? The only impressive thing is that Microsoft managed to lose its control of the PC market, which was as much Microsoft's fault as Apple's success. Windows 7 sales still haven't rebounded to pre-Vista sales. That's not a good sign, is it?
  • Reply 50 of 67
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post


    Maybe I'm just cynical, but I think Dillger plans to plant some "revisionist history" seeds... so he has started to till the soil a bit.



    My guess is that in part two of "the next ten years of Mac OS X" Dillger will have Apple bringing OSX and iOS together.



    So that he can paint Apple as the trail blazer and everyone else as hopeless copycats he needs to pretend that OSX and iOS are similar versions of the same OS, and that Apple had this planned all along.



    Then again I could be completely and utterly wrong (it wouldn't be the first time! ). We'll have to wait for part two of the series to see!



    If you think OS X and iOS need to be "brought together," it's only because you lack an understanding that they are the same thing with iOS having an optimized user interface environment. Do some research, it's not a secret.



    Jobs said iPhone was running "OS X" at its launch, and Apple originally referred to iOS as iPhone OS X. Same kernel, same Cocoa API, same development tools.



    In contrast, there's extensive differences between the same elements of Win95/98 and WinNT/XP/Vista/7 and WinCE WinMob, WP7 and Zune, even if dummies call them all "Windows."
  • Reply 51 of 67
    freerangefreerange Posts: 1,594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Shogun View Post


    What a feat. 1500 words about nothing!



    What planet are you living on? There was plenty to learn and grasp from this article on the direction Apple has taken and its future. If it's too hard for you to understand perhaps spending more time getting an education and less time commenting would help.
  • Reply 52 of 67
    It never ends, you can't say anything here, without the fans able to stay objective, it's a never ending loop. Yes Apple is super cool...and make lots of money, and will never do anything monoplostic, even by accident, or later decreed by a court. Apple make everything innovative, have never made one mistake, every other company is braindead, and has copied every feature Apple has made. Any area a competitor is doing well in, is because they are evil, stole ideas, or making tiny profit. Apple are perfect and have never stole any idea, despite their founders fond use of the quote "Good artists copy, great artists steal. And we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas". AppStore was a completley new thing, it had never been done before...

    Oh Yeah I think Windows 8 is super-bad because Microsoft makes it, in answer to Corrections.

    Also I believe Apple did a better job with the iconography of their religion...A biten Apple...perfect!

    Furthermore Steve Jobs came up with every idea personally himself, he should have fired all his staff, as they came up with no ideas and didn't actually build them - They deserve no credit for specific features.... He was like Tony Stark.....but better and a nicer personality....He was a magician...and Apple is perfect
  • Reply 53 of 67
    mactelmactel Posts: 1,275member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    We have five years of OS X left at best.



    I agree. They may have one more Lion version (e.g. Red Lion or something) but it is clear iOS is the new kid on the block with Apple's direction being iDevices.



    With the war winding down Apple might consider its next move - robotics. Microsoft has a platform for that and Apple might want to start paying attention. Consumer robotics will start to take off beyond vacuums and lawn mowers. Surveillance/security, assisted living, and additional cleaning bots (hate cleaning windows and the bathrooms) will come to the forefront. They need programmable OSes.
  • Reply 54 of 67
    mr. memr. me Posts: 3,221member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    It never ends, you can't say anything here, without the fans able to stay objective, it's a never ending loop. ...



    Calm down. Everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. There are objective facts and there are people here who are intimately familiar with them. If you say things that contradict the objective facts, then you will be called on them.



    State your opinion and move on. If someone says something that you know to be incorrect, then all you have to do is to post a link to the correct information. There is no need to pout.
  • Reply 55 of 67
    If OSX has another 10 years of life, then how many big cats can Apple use for future major releases before resorting to smaller pussies...?
  • Reply 56 of 67
    Quote:

    Calm down. Everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. There are objective facts and there are people here who are intimately familiar with them. If you say things that contradict the objective facts, then you will be called on them.



    Very few facts on this page, other than Apple fans quick to disprove any competitor (without facts as well). My opinion stated in calm manner...depending on your opinion. Would it be okay if I loved Apple that much for real, not sarcasm? Or would that be a little over the top towards a company?



    My initial statement, before many Apple fans were quick to stampede over was:

    Mac OSX and Windows Phone 7.5 deserve more success, because they are competitive products in their respective areas.



    Bye. (I know my opinon will be subsquently challenged and disproved in context of the users here, which is okay)
  • Reply 57 of 67
    firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,502member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    If you think OS X and iOS need to be "brought together," it's only because you lack an understanding that they are the same thing with iOS having an optimised user interface environment. Do some research, it's not a secret.



    I LOL'd



    My prediction still stands... although you do have a point! Dillger won't say that Apple should "bring them together" because that would highlight the fact that it was split in the first place.



    He'll make out OSX and iOS have always been the same thing and that from the start Apple have had a grand plan of a "unified OS".



    He can't write a paragraph without having a stab at Microsoft or Google though... so he'll probably also write about how both companies have been floundering with multiple OS's and are now trying to emulate Apple's grand plan of a unified OS.



    That sounds just about ridiculous enough for a Dillger article!!!!





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    In contrast, there's extensive differences between the same elements of Win95/98 and WinNT/XP/Vista/7 and WinCE WinMob, WP7 and Zune, even if dummies call them all "Windows."



    I completely agree! Only some kind of "dummy" would think Microsoft OS's are the same thing.



    This is especially true if it's actually your job to write about this stuff. Could you imagine what kind of idiot a tech writer would be to confuse Windows CE and Windows XP Embedded? They would have to be a moron, completely incapable of performing their job right?



    I mean... who would say something like Microsoft's mobile Windows CE (since re-branded as "Windows XP Embedded" to escape the stigma of Windows CE's past failures.)



    OK... so yeah, I'm being facetious. We all know it had to be Dillger!
  • Reply 58 of 67
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post


    I LOL'd



    My prediction still stands... although you do have a point! Dillger won't say that Apple should "bring them together" because that would highlight the fact that it was split in the first place.



    He'll make out OSX and iOS have always been the same thing and that from the start Apple have had a grand plan of a "unified OS".



    He can't write a paragraph without having a stab at Microsoft or Google though... so he'll probably also write about how both companies have been floundering with multiple OS's and are now trying to emulate Apple's grand plan of a unified OS.



    Are you joking? You think Microsoft is proud to have a fractionalized, non-cohesive OS platform across its product line? You think Google is impressed that it has Android and Chrome OS at odds with each other? Are you really that much of dipshit that you vilify competence to make competitors seem less than moronic by comparison? Or are you simply incapable of seeing reality? Is your vision really that skewed by your hatred of Apple?





    You're right, the linked article should actually say "Microsoft's mobile Windows CE (since re-branded as "Windows Embedded Compact" to escape the stigma of Windows CE's past failures...."



    It's interesting that you can slog though so much content to look for typos that you embrace and celebrate for over a year without ever learning anything from the accurate content in the thousands of articles AI posts. Like say, the one you linked to, which was full of original observations that were all correct a year later, apart from a product name typo that has no affect on the message of the article. But I guess the point of a troll isn't to be right, but to be listened to.
  • Reply 59 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    Are you joking? You think Microsoft is proud to have a fractionalized, non-cohesive OS platform across its product line? You think Google is impressed that it has Android and Chrome OS at odds with each other? Are you really that much of dipshit that you vilify competence to make competitors seem less than moronic by comparison? Or are you simply incapable of seeing reality? Is your vision really that skewed by your hatred of Apple?



    "Hatred" of Apple?!?! It's just a company mate, you need to get some perspective!!!



    I couldn't really care less about "the company" Apple. When they make cool stuff I buy it. That's about the extent of our relationship!



    That said, I couldn't care less about how Microsoft and Google feel about their OS's either! Could you?





    The only point I'm making here is in response to Bloodshotrollin'red noticing that Dillger now refers to iOS as the "mobile edition" of OSX.



    My guess is that in part two of this series Dillger will have Apple focusing on a unified OS... but since Dillger can't write anything without making Apple the trailblazing hero and everyone else useless copy cats he needs to revise history a bit and pretend that iOS and OSX were always the same thing and this was always a part of Apple's grand plan.



    Of course I could be wrong and he may write nothing of the sort... I'm basing my prediction off nothing more than my own observation of Dillger's inane predictability.
  • Reply 60 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    Very few facts on this page, other than Apple fans quick to disprove any competitor (without facts as well). My opinion stated in calm manner...depending on your opinion. Would it be okay if I loved Apple that much for real, not sarcasm? Or would that be a little over the top towards a company?



    My initial statement, before many Apple fans were quick to stampede over was:

    Mac OSX and Windows Phone 7.5 deserve more success, because they are competitive products in their respective areas.



    Bye. (I know my opinon will be subsquently challenged and disproved in context of the users here, which is okay)



    Oh, c'mon man... stick around and laugh it off. There's a certain amount of entertainment value in having your every word dissected and then mistranslated in the most bizarre ways.



    Occasionally you actually learn something new, which is an added benefit.



    That's what forums are all about. Right...
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