Exactly. The 4S hitting mainland China will keep sales afloat for the next quarter, and if they were to strike a deal with one of China's larger carriers, sales would probably go up for the next 3 quarters.
Apple currently has a deal with the 2nd largest carrier in China. (Right?)
And they probably won't strike a deal with China's largest carrier (China Mobile) until the next version of iPhone is released. Reason: the current version of the iPhone is not compatible with China Mobile's homegrown 3G data network, so it resorts to using "Edge". (Ugh!) Of course, people are running iPhones on that network using grey market phones, but I don't think that Apple wants to endorse or promote that crippled circumstance.
So I agree with you regarding sales in this next quarter. But the subsequent ones may be tough.
Or it could be that the theory holds at least some water that Verizon users were simply waiting for the next generation iPhone instead of buying an already-8-month-old design when the iPhone first came to Verizon. First thinking that it would come in the summer, and then later being willing to wait until Fall.
After all, even Apple said that anticipation of the new iPhone caused a lot of people to hold off waiting to make their purchase, which, to a degree, backs up the theory. Let's see what ATT reports for iPhone sales. No doubt it will be more then Verizon, if for no other reason than the 3GS. But let's see if they saw the same percentage increase as Verizon did.
That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.
There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
It was also said they couldn't exceed the 16 million iPhone sales they did last holiday quarter either, but they have yet to go below that value, even with iPhone 4 pushing into it's 5th full quarter with no 5th generation iPhone in sight.
Oh... so there were drops in numbers at some point.
Exactly what I'm saying.
I don't expect it to happen in Q1 2012 calendar quarter.
"If" a drop occurs in the Q2 2012 calendar quarter (and I think it will) then it will be even more severe in Q3.
Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.
Yeah... I thought about that later.
Still... it does sound like Samsung is firing on all cylinders at the moment.
They might stagnate, though, because Apple hasn't brought out a new form factor that they can copy...
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
According to the press releases, "(Samsung) Smartphone shipments are forecast at a record 35 million in the fourth quarter, up one quarter from the preceding three months, when it first surged past Apple as the world's top smartphone vendor.
In 2012 it is expected to sell as many as 170 million smartphones . . ."
Comments
Exactly. The 4S hitting mainland China will keep sales afloat for the next quarter, and if they were to strike a deal with one of China's larger carriers, sales would probably go up for the next 3 quarters.
Apple currently has a deal with the 2nd largest carrier in China. (Right?)
And they probably won't strike a deal with China's largest carrier (China Mobile) until the next version of iPhone is released. Reason: the current version of the iPhone is not compatible with China Mobile's homegrown 3G data network, so it resorts to using "Edge". (Ugh!) Of course, people are running iPhones on that network using grey market phones, but I don't think that Apple wants to endorse or promote that crippled circumstance.
So I agree with you regarding sales in this next quarter. But the subsequent ones may be tough.
Thompson
After all, even Apple said that anticipation of the new iPhone caused a lot of people to hold off waiting to make their purchase, which, to a degree, backs up the theory. Let's see what ATT reports for iPhone sales. No doubt it will be more then Verizon, if for no other reason than the 3GS. But let's see if they saw the same percentage increase as Verizon did.
That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.
There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
It was also said they couldn't exceed the 16 million iPhone sales they did last holiday quarter either, but they have yet to go below that value, even with iPhone 4 pushing into it's 5th full quarter with no 5th generation iPhone in sight.
There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
I'm not ready to concede defeat of the idea that Apple, in the current quarter, will equal or come very close to the sales in the holiday quarter.
The April - June quarter, yes, I think the sales will be significantly lower, but I'm still holding out hope for the January - March quarter.
We'll see.
Oh... so there were drops in numbers at some point.
Exactly what I'm saying.
I don't expect it to happen in Q1 2012 calendar quarter.
"If" a drop occurs in the Q2 2012 calendar quarter (and I think it will) then it will be even more severe in Q3.
Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.
Yeah... I thought about that later.
Still... it does sound like Samsung is firing on all cylinders at the moment.
They might stagnate, though, because Apple hasn't brought out a new form factor that they can copy...
Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
According to the press releases, "(Samsung) Smartphone shipments are forecast at a record 35 million in the fourth quarter, up one quarter from the preceding three months, when it first surged past Apple as the world's top smartphone vendor.
In 2012 it is expected to sell as many as 170 million smartphones . . ."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...#ixzz1idos7UbG