Verizon numbers may suggest 35M iPhone sales in holiday quarter, analyst says
Verizon's revelation that it sold 4.2 million iPhones in the December quarter has prompted one analyst to suggest that Apple may have sold as many as 35 million iPhones during the period.
UBS analyst Maynard Um extrapolated Verizon's sales figures late Wednesday to show a possible upside to the firm's 30 million unit estimate for Apple's December quarter iPhone performance.
Verizon CFO Francis Shammo had said earlier on Wednesday that the carrier sold 4.2 million iPhones during the period. Meanwhile, rival AT&T announced in early December that "strong" iPhone 4S sales had brought the carrier's smartphone sales in the first two months of the fourth quarter to 6 million, just shy of its quarterly record of 6.1 million sales.
Um estimated that AT&T's iPhone sales will reach 8 million and Sprint 's will hit 1.2 million for combined U.S. iPhone sales of 13.4 million. When compared to the firm's projection of 30 million units during the period, 13.4 million stateside iPhone sales would represent roughly 45 percent of global sales. According to Um, the U.S. mix of Apple's handset sales hasn't been that high since June 2009.
In fact, the analyst reports that the U.S.' proportion of worldwide iPhone sales ranged from 25-29 percent in fiscal 2011, as Apple continued "rapid expansion of international countries and carriers." The iPhone 4S launch should be even more skewed toward overseas, as it has been the fastest international rollout ever for the handset, reaching almost 70 countries by the end of 2011. The device will launch in 22 more countries, including China, on Jan. 13.
Um speculates that a conservative 38 percent mix, which is the highest mix from fiscal 2010, would imply demand for 35.3 million iPhones. That would represent more than 70 percent growth from the previous record of 20.3 million from the July 2011 quarter. Wall Street consensus expects Apple to have sold 25 million iPhones in the quarter.
Apple officials tipped their hand in October when they confidently stated that the iPhone 4S launch would drive handset sales to an all-time high in the December quarter. According to one analysis, Apple is poised to report the biggest earnings blowout in history on Jan. 24. The company has guided for $37 billion in the holiday quarter, representing the first time it will pass the $30-billion mark.
UBS analyst Maynard Um extrapolated Verizon's sales figures late Wednesday to show a possible upside to the firm's 30 million unit estimate for Apple's December quarter iPhone performance.
Verizon CFO Francis Shammo had said earlier on Wednesday that the carrier sold 4.2 million iPhones during the period. Meanwhile, rival AT&T announced in early December that "strong" iPhone 4S sales had brought the carrier's smartphone sales in the first two months of the fourth quarter to 6 million, just shy of its quarterly record of 6.1 million sales.
Um estimated that AT&T's iPhone sales will reach 8 million and Sprint 's will hit 1.2 million for combined U.S. iPhone sales of 13.4 million. When compared to the firm's projection of 30 million units during the period, 13.4 million stateside iPhone sales would represent roughly 45 percent of global sales. According to Um, the U.S. mix of Apple's handset sales hasn't been that high since June 2009.
In fact, the analyst reports that the U.S.' proportion of worldwide iPhone sales ranged from 25-29 percent in fiscal 2011, as Apple continued "rapid expansion of international countries and carriers." The iPhone 4S launch should be even more skewed toward overseas, as it has been the fastest international rollout ever for the handset, reaching almost 70 countries by the end of 2011. The device will launch in 22 more countries, including China, on Jan. 13.
Um speculates that a conservative 38 percent mix, which is the highest mix from fiscal 2010, would imply demand for 35.3 million iPhones. That would represent more than 70 percent growth from the previous record of 20.3 million from the July 2011 quarter. Wall Street consensus expects Apple to have sold 25 million iPhones in the quarter.
Apple officials tipped their hand in October when they confidently stated that the iPhone 4S launch would drive handset sales to an all-time high in the December quarter. According to one analysis, Apple is poised to report the biggest earnings blowout in history on Jan. 24. The company has guided for $37 billion in the holiday quarter, representing the first time it will pass the $30-billion mark.
Comments
Anyway, grats Apple! Well deserved.
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
35 million. Looks like world wide iPhone and Samsung sold the same number of smartphones last quarter. iPhone 4s and cheaper older iPhones did not seem to make much difference to Androids dominance.
"Analysts Expect Blowout Quarter for Samsung, Smartphone Sales of 35 Million"
http://www.dailytech.com/Analysts+Ex...ticle23669.htm
And this doesn't include all the other Android manufacturers.
But the one thing you can't deny, Apple is the big winner in terms of profits. Appears that they will more than double Samsungs Q4 profit, and tripple HTCs.
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
O dear o dear, woe is me, the sky is falling!
Are you people for real?
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
I don't think that sales will go down that far as (stated in the article) additional 22 countries are going to driver further growth.
I don't think that sales will go down that far as (stated in the article) additional 22 countries are going to driver further growth.
Exactly. The 4S hitting mainland China will keep sales afloat for the next quarter, and if they were to strike a deal with one of China's larger carriers, sales would probably go up for the next 3 quarters.
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
You need to factor in china and the other 20 or so countries who won't receive the iPhone 5 for at least a year.
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
Oh clueless one, Apple still isn't even coming close to meeting demand! Asia is starved for the iPhone 4s. You can't get your hands on one without paying about $150 extra to a gray market seller here in China and totally unavailable online in Hong Kong. And even the 3Gs is sold out in Hong Kong, unable to order either model online since the 4S launch when they sold out preorders in 10 minutes. There is still a lot of runway ahead! And lets not forget that the market for smartphones is still expanding rapidly and the iPhone is the best option out there all things considered.
Uh oh, the Droidbois are going to be butt sore in the morning...
Oh shut up.
"Analysts Expect Blowout Quarter for Samsung, Smartphone Sales of 35 Million"
http://www.dailytech.com/Analysts+Ex...ticle23669.htm
imo the article is a bit too peachy for Samsung but since the 35 millions iPhone projection didn't take into account a 7% drop in Europe, the iPhone number is too high too. The problem I see with Samsung is since Google bought Motorola there is risk of Google backstabing other Android manufactures if they give some kind of software hedge to Motorola phones. Its also possible Apple was able to make up for the EU lost by selling there phones elsewhere and still sold every phone they could make.
AAPL is still undervalue no matter what the numbers will be. On the other hand I really like Google with Android market share skyrocketing and upcoming presence in the TV business. Need to buy some Google but I am not going to buy at 52 week highs, need a dip.
Oh clueless one, Apple still isn't even coming close to meeting demand! Asia is starved for the iPhone 4s.
Whilst you can walk into some authorised sellers in Japan and get a 4S straightaway, some SoftBank stores (Kawasaki Lazona, for one example) have waiting lists that mean you can't get a phone for over a month.
Horace Dedieu predicted 35mil about a month ago, interesting that the figures being floated are now coming to match that.
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.
If we do see a drop off in the second 2012 calendar quarter then you can expect a major drop off in the third 2012 calendar quarter.
With the possibility of Samsung also having a record quarter in the holiday season I can't see Apple waiting until fall 2012 for the release of v.6 of the iPhone.
That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.
If we do see a drop off in the second 2012 calendar quarter then you can expect a major drop off in the third 2012 calendar quarter.
With the possibility of Samsung also having a record quarter in the holiday season I can't see Apple waiting until fall 2012 for the release of v.6 of the iPhone.
And looking at previous years where after the holiday sales the iPhone was 6 months old and more than halfway through their cycle thy still sold more units than the release month for the last two releases. So why do we expect that the sales will drop off after the holidays?
And looking at previous years where after the holiday sales the iPhone was 6 months old and more than halfway through their cycle thy still sold more units than the release month for the last two releases.Q3-2007 first full quarter
Q4-2008 more sales than previous quaarter
So why do we expect that the sales will drop off after the holidays?
Q4 2011 looks interesting [ as does Q3 in 2010 ].
We'll see...
[regarding the statement in bold... re-read my post]
Q3 2010's drop was largely due to severe supply constraints of the iPhone 4. I believe Apple referred to it as "the mother of all backlogs."
With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.
Q4 2011 was covered in the conference call with financial analysts. The 2.4 million unit drop was anticipated due to sell through declines in anticipation of the iPhone 4S. Apple actually expected a greater decline than 2.4 million, and hence, they ended up with $3 billion more in revenue than guidance.
Q3 2010's drop was largely due to severe supply constraints of the iPhone 4. I believe Apple referred to it as "the mother of all backlogs."
With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.
Oh... so there were drops in numbers at some point.
Exactly what I'm saying.
I don't expect it to happen in Q1 2012 calendar quarter.
"If" a drop occurs in the Q2 2012 calendar quarter (and I think it will) then it will be even more severe in Q3.
Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho
With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.
Just imagine if Apple can get a deal and components for the iPhone on China Mobile's GSM/TD-SCDMA network.
Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho
Samsung's big sales numbers don't surprise me. Like Huawei, ZTC and Pantech and others, Samsung is selling a lot of handsets in Southeast Asia.
Apple does have their work cut out for them if they want to corner the smartphone industry's profits. I don't think Apple should remain content gobbling up only two-thirds of the smartphone profits.
Overall I really love my iPhone experience so far. Yeah there are some things I really miss about Android because I like more flexibility and widgets were very useful for turning on wi-fi, bluetooth, and other things that are a little harder to get to as easily on the iPhone. But overall I have to say that I prefer iOS over Android for the most part.
I guess the only complaint I really have is the screen size. 3.5" seems really small once you get used to 4.3" screens. My friend has a Sprint Galaxy SII which has a 4.6" screen which sounds huge but it fits in the pocket easily. I know Apple will never make an iPhone that large, but I hope they at least will increase the screen size to around 4.1"
Samsung's big sales numbers don't surprise me. Like Huawei, ZTC and Pantech and others, Samsung is selling a lot of handsets in Southeast Asia.
Apple does have their work cut out for them if they want to corner the smartphone industry's profits. I don't think Apple should remain content gobbling up only two-thirds of the smartphone profits.
... and investors in Apple will not be happy if they see sequential drops in iPhone sales (and/or drops in iPad sales).
As has been pointed out numerous times, Apple's profits don't seem to impress investors as much as they should (or we feel they should). Any pullback in growth will surely ring some alarm bells.
Investors want to see steady growth (and Apple may well continue to show that)... period.
... and I'm surprised that you don't find a bit of concern that Samsung does well in Asia just as Apple is about to enter the 4S into China.