Street consensus for Apple's iPad sales in Dec. quarter stands at 13.5 million units

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
A survey of Wall Street and independent analysts has found that all of them expect Apple to report record iPad sales when it releases its December quarter financial results on Jan. 24, though independent analysts have a 10 percent higher average than the Street's consensus of 13.5 million units.



The 42 analysts polled by Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt produced estimates ranging from 11.73 million to 19.47 million iPad units sold during the most recent quarter.



The low estimate came from Gabelli & Co. analyst Hendi Susanto earlier in the December quarter, while the highest forecast came from Apple Finance Board's Alexis Cabot earlier this month. Both numbers were considered outliers by Elmer-DeWitt.



By comparison, Apple set a record high for iPad sales in the September 2011 quarter with 11.2 million units. Assuming improved sales during the holiday season, Apple should have little trouble besting its previous record.



According to the report, the survey revealed "more agreement than usual" among professional and independent analysts. The average estimate from independents was 14.8 million, roughly 10 percent more than the Wall Street average. The same poll of analysts conducted for Apple's iPhone last week saw a more than 12 percent difference between professionals and independents.



When both groups are counted together, the consensus of nearly 14 million iPad units would imply 90 percent growth in iPad sales year over year. But, analysts have had some trouble accurately projecting iPad sales since the tablet was released in 2010. In the third quarter of calendar 2011, they were slightly disappointed by Apple's iPad results, as they were expecting sales of 11.92 million units.



Source:Fortune



Some analysts have voiced concern that Amazon's new Kindle Fire tablet ate into some of Apple's iPad sales in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011. Investment research firm Morgan Keenan believes the Cupertino, Calif., company's results were adversely affected by one to two million units "at most." Canaccord Genuity's Michael Walkley projects total iPad sales of 55 million in the 2012 calendar year.



Apple will report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Jan. 24. The company is widely believed to have achieved a blowout quarter that will set all-time records for both the iPhone and the iPad. AppleInsider will provide live, extensive coverage of Apple's earnings report and subsequent conference call.



iPad sales will likely see a significant jump in volume later this quarter, as recent reports have pointed to a launch of the third-generation iPad in March. Bloombergclaimed last Friday that the device is now in production and will include 4G LTE support, a high-resolution display and a quad-core processor.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 49
    irelandireland Posts: 17,521member
    Meh, iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!
  • Reply 2 of 49
    The answer is 42 !
  • Reply 3 of 49
    y2any2an Posts: 68member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Some analysts have voiced concern that Amazon's new Kindle Fire tablet cannibalized some of Apple's iPad sales in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011.



    I keep seeing references to cannibalization but it's not possible for the Kindle Fire to have cannibalized iPad sales as they are made by different companies. It's just competition.
  • Reply 4 of 49
    I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?
  • Reply 5 of 49
    radjinradjin Posts: 165member
    I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.
  • Reply 6 of 49
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    13.5M seems low to me by 2M.
  • Reply 7 of 49
    cmvsmcmvsm Posts: 204member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


    I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.



    Kindle Fire is no more than a gateway drug for the iPad. My mother has a Kindle Fire, and after roughly 15 minutes of use, I was scratching my head wondering what I should do with it. The browser however is much faster than I had read in the reviews.
  • Reply 8 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by McRCN View Post


    I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?



    Actually, sales estimations are often augmented by spot checks and many other indicators and are usually more like estimations than thin-air-guesses than other things analysts talk about like details of product launches or future industry trends.
  • Reply 9 of 49
    Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.
  • Reply 10 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stashman View Post


    Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.



    Totally agree. And has been the case for the last decade.
  • Reply 11 of 49
    Kindle Fire this and Kindle Fire that... Why don't they say that the Kindle Touch is also eating into iPad sales. I really don't get it. The Kindle Fire isn't even close in features to compare to the iPad and the price is nowhere's near iPad price, either. That's like saying Nissan Sentra sales are eating into BMW M3 Coupe sales merely because they lumping all certain size cars together. No one ever mentions how many Fires are getting returned because they don't want to hurt Jeff Bezos ego. Why don't they mention that the iPad is stealing sales from the Kindle Fire because if that's the case it should go either way? Apple is doing a bang-up job selling products on its own and the iPad doesn't need to be linked to whatever Amazon's tablet sales are doing.
  • Reply 12 of 49
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stashman View Post


    Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.



    Really? Look at the rankings in the table in this article.



    The last quarter was an odd quarter - first time in 2 years that Apple didn't blow out its guidance. In that extraordinarily low quarter, their rankings were pretty good. OTOH, in every previous quarter (including many quarters earlier than those on the table), these guys were near the bottom of the heap.
  • Reply 13 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


    I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.



    My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.



    However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.
  • Reply 14 of 49
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post


    My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.



    However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.



    That goes back to the original point that the Kindle will not iPad sales. The Kindle should be selling rather well because of the low price of entry but that is a different thing altogether. It's more like the PMP or smartphone didn't unseat the PC even as those markets took off. In fact, it's the iPad that is the first device to show any affect on the PC market but we'll have to wait longer to make sure this is a continuing trend among the iPad and any full-capacity tablets that might enter the market.
  • Reply 15 of 49
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 988member
    How does 13.5 million compare to the top selling Android tablets?
  • Reply 16 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


    How does 13.5 million compare to the top selling Android tablets?



    Probably 12.5 million more than the top Android tablet. I'm sure, however, that Samsung will announce 13.6 million shipped tablets.
  • Reply 17 of 49
    Yes, growth of 90% year-over-year certainly sets a "record." But then so would growth of 0.01%. So can we please retire the meaningless word "record" (used four times in the article) and just refer to the actual growth numbers?
  • Reply 18 of 49
    Why dont analysts just admit that they dont really know and are groping in the dark desperately for numbers to show that there relevent.
  • Reply 19 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    Meh, iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!



    Meh too! iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!
  • Reply 20 of 49
    thejdthejd Posts: 37member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post


    My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.



    However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.



    All such Fires should not count towards sales totals. If this is iPad cannibalization then bring it on. There are plenty of bags out there for those whose purses do not allow the size of the iPad.
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