The application of the Law of Large Numbers to analysis of the AAPL stock and their market share was completely wrong in the first place. That's not what the law is about. Not close.
Well that's good to hear, I guess I am using it incorrectly. I hear every day people say Apple simply cannot get much larger and they are the ones that use this term. My simplistic response is Apple have a massive growth potential.
I would love to learn to correct usage and explanation as to why it wrong to use to decry AAPL potential. It will help at the water cooler
I'm not sure that you want to bring up the LBN in this context, because Macs in the enterprise consist in very small numbers, As such, one expects that any data point, like the one in this story, is more likely to be an outlier. Using the LBN, one would expect any particular quarter to diverge when dealing with such small numbers. Only after the Mac attains big numbers can we expect one quarter to be converging on the mean.
I was meaning Apple over all .... and enterprise being just one portion that exemplifies how small Apple's share is yet how massive the profits from that small share are and thus how much more Apple can grow as a business in almost every market they are in. I accept I used the term incorrectly it seems, I just have it thrown at me every day by those that state Apple cannot grow much more.
Back in the late 1970s and early 80s as my company supplied and trained for personal computing in many large enterprises it was amazing how many similar comments were made about moving on from main frame terminal use. I'm sure when the main frames came in those same comments were made about adding machine. Short sightedness is one quality, sadly, all too prevalent in those who manage businesses.
the short sightedness was all on Apple's part. they did nothing to improve the OS for use in enterprise and in fact were in the toilet. they ignored reality and tried to force their own on the world and damn near died. Now, they are doing it again: riding high, imposing their will, telling you what is what, etc. They have enough money now to last a long long time if things start to go south, however, i think Tim Cook is astute enough to see the value in enterprise and we may see some things that we never would have with Jobs at the helm.
If Apple triples its computer share from today to about 20-25% of the market, it will generate approximately an additional $60 billion dollars in annual revenue and $15 billion in profits. At P/E ratio of 15, that is an additional $225 billion in market cap value
Or put it another way, Apple's current market cap would increase by almost 50% alone from this one major win. It's worth about a $240 move in the stock price. Separate and apart from the growth in iPhone or iPads
It's Apple's game to win. The team just needs to be highly focused and keep cranking out amazing products and software
those people are rare and apple is selling more to former home windows users so you get a LOT of 'i just bought a mac how do i blah, blah,blah,'
you expect a business to shell out money to train someone to do the same job they were already doing on an OS that they already know how to use?
If it makes the employee more productive in the long run, then yes. Absolutely. That's why they bought the Mac right? To be more productive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by screamingfist
its not so simple as 'they support windows or mac, or they can't'. the problem with most Mac users is the whole 'I, me, mine'.
Ah... the attitude fostered by the hostility from IT departments. When you tell people for years that "If you use a Mac, you are on your own" how do you expect them to behave. And don't paint them all with a broad brush. There are Mac users of all types, you just don't hear from them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
I'd like to see Apple buy Parallels or Fusion and incorporate their technology into the MacOS X 10.9 ("Nittany Lion"). That would knock down some of the last barriers to the use of Macs in the Enterprise.
That will never happen. Apple wants people to run Mac software, not Windows software. IT wants Apple to be subservient to them like PC vendors. Apple is not willing to do that. And to me, that's a good thing. I don't want Apple's product decisions based on fitting IT departments' purchasing patterns.
If Apple triples its computer share from today to about 20-25% of the market, it will generate approximately an additional $60 billion dollars in annual revenue and $15 billion in profits. At P/E ratio of 15, that is an additional $225 billion in market cap value
Or put it another way, Apple's current market cap would increase by almost 50% alone from this one major win. It's worth about a $240 move in the stock price. Separate and apart from the growth in iPhone or iPads
It's Apple's game to win. The team just needs to be highly focused and keep cranking out amazing products and software
I agree and I'm holding on tight for the ride. I will need to start cashing out in ten years so hopefully Apple will own planet Earth by then . Don't forget there may well be new, untapped markets Apple enter in the coming years too!
If it makes the employee more productive in the long run, then yes. Absolutely. That's why they bought the Mac right? To be more productive.
Ah... the attitude fostered by the hostility from IT departments. When you tell people for years that "If you use a Mac, you are on your own" how do you expect them to behave. And don't paint them all with a broad brush. There are Mac users of all types, you just don't hear from them.
That will never happen. Apple wants people to run Mac software, not Windows software. IT wants Apple to be subservient to them like PC vendors. Apple is not willing to do that. And to me, that's a good thing. I don't want Apple's product decisions based on fitting IT departments' purchasing patterns.
I totally agree on all your points, especially IT attitudes historically. However, I see more and more of the IT folks with iPads and iPhones and a definite change in attitude coming from those that do. The head of IT I know at my wife's company (a multi-billion dollar real estate company) now has a MBP of his own too and all of a sudden we are seeing all sorts of new support for Mac and iPad that was never a distant dream for the last two decades. I suspect this is a growing trend. Sort of the 'Apple Spring' if you will.
I think they still need to overcome the entrenched opinions of many IT departments. At my last company, a Fortune 500 company, the IT department would block absolutely anything Apple (no iPhones using the WiFi, no iPads, absolutely no Macs) all on the grounds of "security" and "supportability".
Not knowing the slightest thing about setting up a corporate network, I pretty much trusted what they told me and that it would obviously be costly and difficult to support Macs and PC's. I've since moved to a different company, and have been stunned by how well Macs, Windows PCs, Linux PCs etc. seem to work together.
I'm forced to conclude that either my new company has smarter IT folks, or my old company had lazy IT folks. I suspect the later.
There is one area of business Apple is more than capable of moving into, namely a PoS set-up for retailers. With the iPod Touch, iPad and Mini Server already in place, all it would take is a card-swipe attachment plus software to tie it all together and you would have a perfectly scalable system from single device right up to a big department store. What's more, hand sets and additional server space could be added incrementally as required. With so many of the pieces already in place, it would not take much effort to set up such a system, and of course the potential market is enormous.
I bet where I work is bigger than where you work and we're around 30% macs last I heard.
We build satellites that go into space. WTF do you build?
I doubt he builds anything and certainly never worked in IT. It is impossible to build a long term TCO study for most enterprises that shows continuing to invest in Windows to be a significantly better value prop than migrating to OSX. The only real barrier is re-training staff. A gradual migration allows companies to deal with that through turnover.
There are a few exceptions, but the core apps of the fortune 100 are all web based today. Those apps have not been explorer specific for the past several years.
The real driver IT will see is that the C-Level all wants macs. Soon they will want heir staffs to have MACs and so on. Apple is pushing into the enterprise from the top down. That is how you overcome the laziness of IT. Apple should just send new airs to every CEO and CFO in the fortune 500 and the rest will take care of itself.
There is one area of business Apple is more than capable of moving into, namely a PoS set-up for retailers. With the iPod Touch, iPad and Mini Server already in place, all it would take is a card-swipe attachment plus software to tie it all together and you would have a perfectly scalable system from single device right up to a big department store. What's more, hand sets and additional server space could be added incrementally as required. With so many of the pieces already in place, it would not take much effort to set up such a system, and of course the potential market is enormous.
Apple is a company that makes consumer gadgets. I doubt that they are interested in any of that.
Apple is a company that makes consumer gadgets. I doubt that they are interested in any of that.
Too funny. Paradigm shifting products that have litterally defined our era and that are slavishly copied by every other company in those fields... 'consumer gadgets'.
What is a toaster or a bottle opener in this hierarchy?
The only Macs I've seen in my (large) business are the ones people buy to write the custom iPad apps everyone's hankering for. I haven't seen them actually used to do day-to-day business, but rather to support the rest of Apple's ecosystem.
I don't think (large) business is where Apple is seeing growth. I work for the evil AT&T and my desktop is still XP and IE7 with not even a rumor of any upgrades. I think Apple's growth is in the small to mid-sized business market.
I think they still need to overcome the entrenched opinions of many IT departments. At my last company, a Fortune 500 company, the IT department would block absolutely anything Apple (no iPhones using the WiFi, no iPads, absolutely no Macs) all on the grounds of "security" and "supportability".
Not knowing the slightest thing about setting up a corporate network, I pretty much trusted what they told me and that it would obviously be costly and difficult to support Macs and PC's. I've since moved to a different company, and have been stunned by how well Macs, Windows PCs, Linux PCs etc. seem to work together.
I'm forced to conclude that either my new company has smarter IT folks, or my old company had lazy IT folks. I suspect the later.
My experience of IT departments in EVERY company I've worked at has been the same. They would rather be sat in their caves playing games/surfing the web/tweaking something than sorting out my problems. And these are the ones that actually HAVE Macs!
Why on earth would these guys want to create work for themselves?! That's crazy talk.
Too funny. Paradigm shifting products that have litterally defined our era and that are slavishly copied by every other company in those fields... 'consumer gadgets'.
What is a toaster or a bottle opener in this hierarchy?
Those are kitchen appliances and kitchen tools, respectively.
Both are consumer gadgets. As are the iPad, iPhone and iPod.
I doubt he builds anything and certainly never worked in IT. It is impossible to build a long term TCO study for most enterprises that shows continuing to invest in Windows to be a significantly better value prop than migrating to OSX. The only real barrier is re-training staff. A gradual migration allows companies to deal with that through turnover.
There are a few exceptions, but the core apps of the fortune 100 are all web based today. Those apps have not been explorer specific for the past several years.
The real driver IT will see is that the C-Level all wants macs. Soon they will want heir staffs to have MACs and so on. Apple is pushing into the enterprise from the top down. That is how you overcome the laziness of IT. Apple should just send new airs to every CEO and CFO in the fortune 500 and the rest will take care of itself.
While what you say is true, it isn't a compelling reason to convert your workforce to Macs. I work for a Fortune 50 company, and we've got Dells running XP that do the trick just fine for finance stuff. Most of our programs are web-based like you say, so we'd just be running our apps through Safari instead of IE. I'd certainly love a shiny iMac on my desk, but it wouldn't change what I do at all or make things more efficient. They'd just be...different slightly.
My experience of IT departments in EVERY company I've worked at has been the same. They would rather be sat in their caves playing games/surfing the web/tweaking something than sorting out my problems. And these are the ones that actually HAVE Macs!
Why on earth would these guys want to create work for themselves?! That's crazy talk.
Yeah I agree with you. But non-Mac ones have chips on their shoulders and usually end up quoting some outdated speech about windows security being better or macs are more expensive. Oh and yes, they live their parent's basement.
But also, at least in the Jobs era, they (Apple) didn't care about playing second fiddle - they knew their place as a non-enterprise consumer media driven company. Halo effect is a perfect way to describe this, but whatever it's called it eventually seems to work as people grow to expect iOS functionality from their desktop.
Comments
The application of the Law of Large Numbers to analysis of the AAPL stock and their market share was completely wrong in the first place. That's not what the law is about. Not close.
Well that's good to hear, I guess I am using it incorrectly. I hear every day people say Apple simply cannot get much larger and they are the ones that use this term. My simplistic response is Apple have a massive growth potential.
I would love to learn to correct usage and explanation as to why it wrong to use to decry AAPL potential. It will help at the water cooler
I'm not sure that you want to bring up the LBN in this context, because Macs in the enterprise consist in very small numbers, As such, one expects that any data point, like the one in this story, is more likely to be an outlier. Using the LBN, one would expect any particular quarter to diverge when dealing with such small numbers. Only after the Mac attains big numbers can we expect one quarter to be converging on the mean.
I was meaning Apple over all .... and enterprise being just one portion that exemplifies how small Apple's share is yet how massive the profits from that small share are and thus how much more Apple can grow as a business in almost every market they are in. I accept I used the term incorrectly it seems, I just have it thrown at me every day by those that state Apple cannot grow much more.
Back in the late 1970s and early 80s as my company supplied and trained for personal computing in many large enterprises it was amazing how many similar comments were made about moving on from main frame terminal use. I'm sure when the main frames came in those same comments were made about adding machine. Short sightedness is one quality, sadly, all too prevalent in those who manage businesses.
the short sightedness was all on Apple's part. they did nothing to improve the OS for use in enterprise and in fact were in the toilet. they ignored reality and tried to force their own on the world and damn near died. Now, they are doing it again: riding high, imposing their will, telling you what is what, etc. They have enough money now to last a long long time if things start to go south, however, i think Tim Cook is astute enough to see the value in enterprise and we may see some things that we never would have with Jobs at the helm.
Maybe in five years, Apple will have enough money to buy out Microsoft and victory will be complete.
exactly... outside of our design stations they also used for app production. why the insignificant 2.9%
anyone that says they would deploy Macs for an entire Enterprise is one of the iOS kids that have never managed a business.
I bet where I work is bigger than where you work and we're around 30% macs last I heard.
We build satellites that go into space. WTF do you build?
Or put it another way, Apple's current market cap would increase by almost 50% alone from this one major win. It's worth about a $240 move in the stock price. Separate and apart from the growth in iPhone or iPads
It's Apple's game to win. The team just needs to be highly focused and keep cranking out amazing products and software
We shall overcome... even if it takes another 20 years or so at this current rate of Apple adoption.
Maybe in five years, Apple will have enough money to buy out Microsoft and victory will be complete.
I know you jest but OMG why would they want to buy MS.
those people are rare and apple is selling more to former home windows users so you get a LOT of 'i just bought a mac how do i blah, blah,blah,'
you expect a business to shell out money to train someone to do the same job they were already doing on an OS that they already know how to use?
If it makes the employee more productive in the long run, then yes. Absolutely. That's why they bought the Mac right? To be more productive.
its not so simple as 'they support windows or mac, or they can't'. the problem with most Mac users is the whole 'I, me, mine'.
Ah... the attitude fostered by the hostility from IT departments. When you tell people for years that "If you use a Mac, you are on your own" how do you expect them to behave. And don't paint them all with a broad brush. There are Mac users of all types, you just don't hear from them.
I'd like to see Apple buy Parallels or Fusion and incorporate their technology into the MacOS X 10.9 ("Nittany Lion"). That would knock down some of the last barriers to the use of Macs in the Enterprise.
That will never happen. Apple wants people to run Mac software, not Windows software. IT wants Apple to be subservient to them like PC vendors. Apple is not willing to do that. And to me, that's a good thing. I don't want Apple's product decisions based on fitting IT departments' purchasing patterns.
If Apple triples its computer share from today to about 20-25% of the market, it will generate approximately an additional $60 billion dollars in annual revenue and $15 billion in profits. At P/E ratio of 15, that is an additional $225 billion in market cap value
Or put it another way, Apple's current market cap would increase by almost 50% alone from this one major win. It's worth about a $240 move in the stock price. Separate and apart from the growth in iPhone or iPads
It's Apple's game to win. The team just needs to be highly focused and keep cranking out amazing products and software
I agree and I'm holding on tight for the ride. I will need to start cashing out in ten years so hopefully Apple will own planet Earth by then
If it makes the employee more productive in the long run, then yes. Absolutely. That's why they bought the Mac right? To be more productive.
Ah... the attitude fostered by the hostility from IT departments. When you tell people for years that "If you use a Mac, you are on your own" how do you expect them to behave. And don't paint them all with a broad brush. There are Mac users of all types, you just don't hear from them.
That will never happen. Apple wants people to run Mac software, not Windows software. IT wants Apple to be subservient to them like PC vendors. Apple is not willing to do that. And to me, that's a good thing. I don't want Apple's product decisions based on fitting IT departments' purchasing patterns.
I totally agree on all your points, especially IT attitudes historically. However, I see more and more of the IT folks with iPads and iPhones and a definite change in attitude coming from those that do. The head of IT I know at my wife's company (a multi-billion dollar real estate company) now has a MBP of his own too and all of a sudden we are seeing all sorts of new support for Mac and iPad that was never a distant dream for the last two decades. I suspect this is a growing trend. Sort of the 'Apple Spring' if you will.
I think they still need to overcome the entrenched opinions of many IT departments. At my last company, a Fortune 500 company, the IT department would block absolutely anything Apple (no iPhones using the WiFi, no iPads, absolutely no Macs) all on the grounds of "security" and "supportability".
Not knowing the slightest thing about setting up a corporate network, I pretty much trusted what they told me and that it would obviously be costly and difficult to support Macs and PC's. I've since moved to a different company, and have been stunned by how well Macs, Windows PCs, Linux PCs etc. seem to work together.
I'm forced to conclude that either my new company has smarter IT folks, or my old company had lazy IT folks. I suspect the later.
You would be correct.
I bet where I work is bigger than where you work and we're around 30% macs last I heard.
We build satellites that go into space. WTF do you build?
I doubt he builds anything and certainly never worked in IT. It is impossible to build a long term TCO study for most enterprises that shows continuing to invest in Windows to be a significantly better value prop than migrating to OSX. The only real barrier is re-training staff. A gradual migration allows companies to deal with that through turnover.
There are a few exceptions, but the core apps of the fortune 100 are all web based today. Those apps have not been explorer specific for the past several years.
The real driver IT will see is that the C-Level all wants macs. Soon they will want heir staffs to have MACs and so on. Apple is pushing into the enterprise from the top down. That is how you overcome the laziness of IT. Apple should just send new airs to every CEO and CFO in the fortune 500 and the rest will take care of itself.
There is one area of business Apple is more than capable of moving into, namely a PoS set-up for retailers. With the iPod Touch, iPad and Mini Server already in place, all it would take is a card-swipe attachment plus software to tie it all together and you would have a perfectly scalable system from single device right up to a big department store. What's more, hand sets and additional server space could be added incrementally as required. With so many of the pieces already in place, it would not take much effort to set up such a system, and of course the potential market is enormous.
Apple is a company that makes consumer gadgets. I doubt that they are interested in any of that.
Apple is a company that makes consumer gadgets. I doubt that they are interested in any of that.
Too funny. Paradigm shifting products that have litterally defined our era and that are slavishly copied by every other company in those fields... 'consumer gadgets'.
What is a toaster or a bottle opener in this hierarchy?
The only Macs I've seen in my (large) business are the ones people buy to write the custom iPad apps everyone's hankering for. I haven't seen them actually used to do day-to-day business, but rather to support the rest of Apple's ecosystem.
I don't think (large) business is where Apple is seeing growth. I work for the evil AT&T and my desktop is still XP and IE7 with not even a rumor of any upgrades. I think Apple's growth is in the small to mid-sized business market.
I think they still need to overcome the entrenched opinions of many IT departments. At my last company, a Fortune 500 company, the IT department would block absolutely anything Apple (no iPhones using the WiFi, no iPads, absolutely no Macs) all on the grounds of "security" and "supportability".
Not knowing the slightest thing about setting up a corporate network, I pretty much trusted what they told me and that it would obviously be costly and difficult to support Macs and PC's. I've since moved to a different company, and have been stunned by how well Macs, Windows PCs, Linux PCs etc. seem to work together.
I'm forced to conclude that either my new company has smarter IT folks, or my old company had lazy IT folks. I suspect the later.
My experience of IT departments in EVERY company I've worked at has been the same. They would rather be sat in their caves playing games/surfing the web/tweaking something than sorting out my problems. And these are the ones that actually HAVE Macs!
Why on earth would these guys want to create work for themselves?! That's crazy talk.
Too funny. Paradigm shifting products that have litterally defined our era and that are slavishly copied by every other company in those fields... 'consumer gadgets'.
What is a toaster or a bottle opener in this hierarchy?
Those are kitchen appliances and kitchen tools, respectively.
Both are consumer gadgets. As are the iPad, iPhone and iPod.
I doubt he builds anything and certainly never worked in IT. It is impossible to build a long term TCO study for most enterprises that shows continuing to invest in Windows to be a significantly better value prop than migrating to OSX. The only real barrier is re-training staff. A gradual migration allows companies to deal with that through turnover.
There are a few exceptions, but the core apps of the fortune 100 are all web based today. Those apps have not been explorer specific for the past several years.
The real driver IT will see is that the C-Level all wants macs. Soon they will want heir staffs to have MACs and so on. Apple is pushing into the enterprise from the top down. That is how you overcome the laziness of IT. Apple should just send new airs to every CEO and CFO in the fortune 500 and the rest will take care of itself.
While what you say is true, it isn't a compelling reason to convert your workforce to Macs. I work for a Fortune 50 company, and we've got Dells running XP that do the trick just fine for finance stuff. Most of our programs are web-based like you say, so we'd just be running our apps through Safari instead of IE. I'd certainly love a shiny iMac on my desk, but it wouldn't change what I do at all or make things more efficient. They'd just be...different slightly.
My experience of IT departments in EVERY company I've worked at has been the same. They would rather be sat in their caves playing games/surfing the web/tweaking something than sorting out my problems. And these are the ones that actually HAVE Macs!
Why on earth would these guys want to create work for themselves?! That's crazy talk.
Yeah I agree with you. But non-Mac ones have chips on their shoulders and usually end up quoting some outdated speech about windows security being better or macs are more expensive. Oh and yes, they live their parent's basement.
But also, at least in the Jobs era, they (Apple) didn't care about playing second fiddle - they knew their place as a non-enterprise consumer media driven company. Halo effect is a perfect way to describe this, but whatever it's called it eventually seems to work as people grow to expect iOS functionality from their desktop.