I think the biggest issue with same day sales of this product is that you'd have to deliver to stores the day before. As soon as you get outside their guarded warehouse for store delivers you are limit your control over the product. From China to the US it's very large shipments are surely guarded but from store to store that security drops off considerably.
Based on the iPhone 4S launch and iPad HD news I would expect pre-orders on Friday, the 9th, deliveries starting the following Wednesday, the 14th, even though are scheduled for the following Friday, the 16th, and in store sales starting on the 16th.
Ahh... logistics!
Not to mention the announcement is 10:00-11:00 AM PST -- or 1:00-2:00 PM EST... this doesn't leave much time to form lines (scalpers aside).
Besides, all those SammyShills wi need time to prepare to parade in front of the lines for iPads...
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
If they were your regular customers, they would have pre-booked the space they need. If they're not willing to commit, you shouldn't be obligated to hold any space for them. They know they get good rates if you commit ahead of time instead of at the last minute.
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
I think you are assuming only DHL's rates are going up 20%. The article merely says sources in the shipping industry said "shipping rates" are up this week. We aren't talking about some company booking a couple of planes. Apple has shown a tendency to book up entire industries before, such as NAND. What if Apple is actually booking a significant amount of the actual air freight *capacity* coming out of China? There aren't unlimited planes, DHL or anyone, that fly out of China. When a resource becomes constrained, prices go up.
This isn't like the holidays where carriers know to ramp up capacity for months in advance. This is new, and likely short notice since Apple paid a premium. If this continues every launch, perhaps the carriers will ramp up in advance, and we'll have our own Apple holiday
At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
Lesser of two evils. You might lose a customer, and DHL might have provisions for that, like even meeting the customer half way on inflated costs, but they might think that losing Apple to another vendor because they can't handle their shipment might do more damage to their company. I'm sure DHL did a cost assessment to see which was better for them.
Quote:
Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
I thought only the first half of your name described you.
PS: I recall there was something about Apple, per Cook, buying up all the space on cargo planes for the original iMacs for the shipping season.
But the way I read the article it says that Apple is paying a premium for the shipping of their goods plus DHL customers saw their rates raised by 20%. Why should the regular DHL customers pay more if DHL is already making a premium on Apple's shipments? Sounds like socialistic shipping to me.
The story is confusing, but you can figure it out: Apple is getting the very best rate because they pre-ordered the capacity. They call it a premium rate, which should like a high rate, but it really means the opposite.
Like anything else, there is capacity. When it's exceeded the price goes up. Joe Blow shipping something back to Amazon doesn't pay more at Christmas. But Apple ordering entire plane loads to ship iPads certainly will.
It's a business driven by bids, not fixed pricing.
My humble guess is that it will not be Apple paying the premium, but everybody else who got snookered by Apple taking all the space.
But the way I read the article it says that Apple is paying a premium for the shipping of their goods plus DHL customers saw their rates raised by 20%. Why should the regular DHL customers pay more if DHL is already making a premium on Apple's shipments? Sounds like socialistic shipping to me.
Sounds like capitalism, if you want space on a plane you have to at least match what the guy who wants ALL the capacity is willing to pay.
A 'problem' I see with making it available on the day of the announcement is that there won't be time for hype to build up and people to generate massive lines. Though the lines are problematic, they do generate headlines in newspapers everywhere, drawing more attention to the product and brand (free advertising!) and generating even more hype (perpetual hype machine) and hopefully driving more sales. Maybe they won't be able to catch up with the demand for a long time again so they don't need the hype, but it also gives them bragging numbers like "10 million devices sold on the first day".
More of Tim Cook's signature.
Tim will give the presentation. Thoroughly demonstrating and explaining the iPad 3. After an hour or so of this he will come to the part where he says:
"Availability? Now!"
... and several hundred people charge out the auditorium screaming. Filmed in its entirety by Apple, of course, and uploaded to Facebook, Twitter and YouTube immediately which leads to crowds of people running en masse to the closest Apple store!!
"Forget long lines. We want running and screaming masses. New image. New look and feel. I am Tim Cook!"
the words "We have something you really have to see. And touch. " are important here. iPad 3 will be unveiled and available at launch on Wednesday.
Hopefully this keeps the stock from shifting downward on event day... It will be a great "one last thing" ........ "It is available immediately"... cue the frenzy...!!!
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
Were physical planes the only consideration, this would be easier. DHL is probably the largest foreign air freight operator in China. They have freight loading rights in over 300 cities in China, so moving goods out of that country is less an issue for DHL than for many other carriers. Even most passenger airlines are not allowed to load non-passenger cargo (freight) except in a few Chinese cities. Tim's buying up a large portion of DHL's available capacity even for a short period will force other manufacturers/buyers of good to weigh the costs of delaying shipments, moving them overland to a port where a carrier has rights and capacity, or even paying cancellation fees until a favorable window opens. Then there is the matter of distribution from DHL's U.S. hub. Several incoming planes full of iPads will probably stuff the re-distribution channel to destination cities, leaving less room for other cargo. To ensure all this capacity exists Apple would have to prepay fees ranging from landing slots to to ground handling. They may even pay extra to ensure customs and carrier agents are on hand as soon as the plane arrives at the terminal. Most significantly, they may have paid DHL to have a plane on standby just in case a shipment from Foxconn or wherever is delayed, allowing a partially-full flight to leave to ensure product is delivered. This eats up a landing slot plus crew time, but Apple has the means and desire to pay for it. My bet is with Tim Cook overseeing the process such a plan, if it exists, is never put into effect.
Tim will give the presentation. Thoroughly demonstrating and explaining the iPad 3. After an hour or so of this he will come to the part where he says:
"Availability? Now!"
... and several hundred people charge out the auditorium screaming. Filmed in its entirety by Apple, of course, and uploaded to Facebook, Twitter and YouTube immediately which leads to crowds of people running en masse to the closest Apple store!!
"Forget long lines. We want running and screaming masses. New image. New look and feel. I am Tim Cook!"
<said tongue in cheek>
With the original iPad, some of my friends were not booking any meetings for themselves the day of the announcement, just in case Steve said "Available...NOW" so they could drop everything and head to the closest store to buy whatever Apple announced. They considered taking the day off and follow the announcement inside a store so they can be "first!".
If they ever did "available NOW" for any major product release, there will be a mass exodus of people from their jobs during the day just to be first. A sudden onset of some kind of sickness in order to take the afternoon off.
Thank you all for the explanations, I have a much better understanding of the process. In my case my business is majority retail, more mom/pop, so if I tell one of my customers to pay me more or screw because I have a huge job that'll carry me through for the next month, then I'm screwing myself because they'll go elsewhere. Printing has become a very competitive business and because of digital reproduction technology, printing has become more of a commodity product that anyone can produce rather than the trade/skill/art that it once was.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
I thought only the first half of your name described you.
At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good.
It is up to you to decide if you are going to eat the extra cost in good faith to your original customer or not. In the case of DHL apparently they are not that generous. I bet that they are negotiable though if a long time customer complained. Almost all large corporations try to charge full price but many times will make sacrifices for customer who complain. I have seen this work several times with AT&T, Time Warner, COX and even Fedex to mention a few. The Fedex one was particularly interesting since it was clearly our fault and they ended up paying $1000 for our mistake.
How do they know these shipping rates weren't affected by skyrocketing fuel costs? This seems quite speculative even if they called someone at DHL who may not be authorized to comment.
I'm with you. Fuel costs are more logical. Although that picture of a DHL airplane is awfully compelling. I just love the frenzy as it lathers up.
the words "We have something you really have to see. And touch. " are important here. iPad 3 will be unveiled and available at launch on Wednesday.
Nope. They would already be contacting staff to change work schedules and we would have heard it by now. Plus the hubs need to divy up the units and get them to stores.
Apple tv says it is back in stores on march 10. I'm betting that is also launch day
Comments
I think the biggest issue with same day sales of this product is that you'd have to deliver to stores the day before. As soon as you get outside their guarded warehouse for store delivers you are limit your control over the product. From China to the US it's very large shipments are surely guarded but from store to store that security drops off considerably.
Based on the iPhone 4S launch and iPad HD news I would expect pre-orders on Friday, the 9th, deliveries starting the following Wednesday, the 14th, even though are scheduled for the following Friday, the 16th, and in store sales starting on the 16th.
Ahh... logistics!
Not to mention the announcement is 10:00-11:00 AM PST -- or 1:00-2:00 PM EST... this doesn't leave much time to form lines (scalpers aside).
Besides, all those SammyShills wi need time to prepare to parade in front of the lines for iPads...
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
If they were your regular customers, they would have pre-booked the space they need. If they're not willing to commit, you shouldn't be obligated to hold any space for them. They know they get good rates if you commit ahead of time instead of at the last minute.
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
I think you are assuming only DHL's rates are going up 20%. The article merely says sources in the shipping industry said "shipping rates" are up this week. We aren't talking about some company booking a couple of planes. Apple has shown a tendency to book up entire industries before, such as NAND. What if Apple is actually booking a significant amount of the actual air freight *capacity* coming out of China? There aren't unlimited planes, DHL or anyone, that fly out of China. When a resource becomes constrained, prices go up.
This isn't like the holidays where carriers know to ramp up capacity for months in advance. This is new, and likely short notice since Apple paid a premium. If this continues every launch, perhaps the carriers will ramp up in advance, and we'll have our own Apple holiday
At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
Lesser of two evils. You might lose a customer, and DHL might have provisions for that, like even meeting the customer half way on inflated costs, but they might think that losing Apple to another vendor because they can't handle their shipment might do more damage to their company. I'm sure DHL did a cost assessment to see which was better for them.
Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
I thought only the first half of your name described you.
PS: I recall there was something about Apple, per Cook, buying up all the space on cargo planes for the original iMacs for the shipping season.
...Maybe they need to get them out of China in a hurry...
That thought actually did cross my mind too. Hopefully that is not the case though.
But the way I read the article it says that Apple is paying a premium for the shipping of their goods plus DHL customers saw their rates raised by 20%. Why should the regular DHL customers pay more if DHL is already making a premium on Apple's shipments? Sounds like socialistic shipping to me.
The story is confusing, but you can figure it out: Apple is getting the very best rate because they pre-ordered the capacity. They call it a premium rate, which should like a high rate, but it really means the opposite.
And the possibility that the Somali Pirates got my iPad
Yep, them Somalis and their 4G connections...
March 14: iPad 3 - shipping 2 - 3 weeks
March 10: iPad 3 - shipping 1 - 2 days
March 14: iPad 3 - shipping 2 - 3 weeks
March 7 1PM EST: iPad 3 ? shipping in 1-2 days
March 7 5PM EST: iPad 3 ? shipping in 2-3 weeks
Like anything else, there is capacity. When it's exceeded the price goes up. Joe Blow shipping something back to Amazon doesn't pay more at Christmas. But Apple ordering entire plane loads to ship iPads certainly will.
It's a business driven by bids, not fixed pricing.
My humble guess is that it will not be Apple paying the premium, but everybody else who got snookered by Apple taking all the space.
But the way I read the article it says that Apple is paying a premium for the shipping of their goods plus DHL customers saw their rates raised by 20%. Why should the regular DHL customers pay more if DHL is already making a premium on Apple's shipments? Sounds like socialistic shipping to me.
Sounds like capitalism, if you want space on a plane you have to at least match what the guy who wants ALL the capacity is willing to pay.
A 'problem' I see with making it available on the day of the announcement is that there won't be time for hype to build up and people to generate massive lines. Though the lines are problematic, they do generate headlines in newspapers everywhere, drawing more attention to the product and brand (free advertising!) and generating even more hype (perpetual hype machine) and hopefully driving more sales. Maybe they won't be able to catch up with the demand for a long time again so they don't need the hype, but it also gives them bragging numbers like "10 million devices sold on the first day".
More of Tim Cook's signature.
Tim will give the presentation. Thoroughly demonstrating and explaining the iPad 3. After an hour or so of this he will come to the part where he says:
"Availability? Now!"
... and several hundred people charge out the auditorium screaming. Filmed in its entirety by Apple, of course, and uploaded to Facebook, Twitter and YouTube immediately which leads to crowds of people running en masse to the closest Apple store!!
"Forget long lines. We want running and screaming masses. New image. New look and feel. I am Tim Cook!"
<said tongue in cheek>
the words "We have something you really have to see. And touch. " are important here. iPad 3 will be unveiled and available at launch on Wednesday.
Hopefully this keeps the stock from shifting downward on event day... It will be a great "one last thing" ........ "It is available immediately"... cue the frenzy...!!!
That's a good analogy, thanks, but I feel that is a little short-sighted move, business wise. I risk losing a customer if he knows the reason why I'm charging him more than usual is because I'm putting all of my "Apples" in one basket for a month, which prevents me from servicing my usual customers. It's like I'm punishing my regular customers just because I got a mother lode order from a new customer. At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good. Does what I'm saying make sense or am I missing something?
That's why I said earlier that if DHL doesn't have the current plane capacity to make this special shipment for Apple, why wouldn't they just lease or charter extra planes for the Apple shipments, since they ARE getting a premium from Apple, and then it wouldn't disrupt or affect their normal/regular business customers. Obviously I'm a printer and don't understand how the shipping biz works.
Were physical planes the only consideration, this would be easier. DHL is probably the largest foreign air freight operator in China. They have freight loading rights in over 300 cities in China, so moving goods out of that country is less an issue for DHL than for many other carriers. Even most passenger airlines are not allowed to load non-passenger cargo (freight) except in a few Chinese cities. Tim's buying up a large portion of DHL's available capacity even for a short period will force other manufacturers/buyers of good to weigh the costs of delaying shipments, moving them overland to a port where a carrier has rights and capacity, or even paying cancellation fees until a favorable window opens. Then there is the matter of distribution from DHL's U.S. hub. Several incoming planes full of iPads will probably stuff the re-distribution channel to destination cities, leaving less room for other cargo. To ensure all this capacity exists Apple would have to prepay fees ranging from landing slots to to ground handling. They may even pay extra to ensure customs and carrier agents are on hand as soon as the plane arrives at the terminal. Most significantly, they may have paid DHL to have a plane on standby just in case a shipment from Foxconn or wherever is delayed, allowing a partially-full flight to leave to ensure product is delivered. This eats up a landing slot plus crew time, but Apple has the means and desire to pay for it. My bet is with Tim Cook overseeing the process such a plan, if it exists, is never put into effect.
More of Tim Cook's signature.
Tim will give the presentation. Thoroughly demonstrating and explaining the iPad 3. After an hour or so of this he will come to the part where he says:
"Availability? Now!"
... and several hundred people charge out the auditorium screaming. Filmed in its entirety by Apple, of course, and uploaded to Facebook, Twitter and YouTube immediately which leads to crowds of people running en masse to the closest Apple store!!
"Forget long lines. We want running and screaming masses. New image. New look and feel. I am Tim Cook!"
<said tongue in cheek>
With the original iPad, some of my friends were not booking any meetings for themselves the day of the announcement, just in case Steve said "Available...NOW" so they could drop everything and head to the closest store to buy whatever Apple announced. They considered taking the day off and follow the announcement inside a store so they can be "first!".
If they ever did "available NOW" for any major product release, there will be a mass exodus of people from their jobs during the day just to be first. A sudden onset of some kind of sickness in order to take the afternoon off.
Waiting a month can't be that hard!
......
.....
....
Thank you all for the explanations, I have a much better understanding of the process. In my case my business is majority retail, more mom/pop, so if I tell one of my customers to pay me more or screw because I have a huge job that'll carry me through for the next month, then I'm screwing myself because they'll go elsewhere. Printing has become a very competitive business and because of digital reproduction technology, printing has become more of a commodity product that anyone can produce rather than the trade/skill/art that it once was.
I thought only the first half of your name described you.
I've been asked if I print gay porn.
At the least I'm only pissing them off by charging them more this one time but they're still getting their job and I can only hope to retain that customer. At the most I'll lose that customer for good.
It is up to you to decide if you are going to eat the extra cost in good faith to your original customer or not. In the case of DHL apparently they are not that generous. I bet that they are negotiable though if a long time customer complained. Almost all large corporations try to charge full price but many times will make sacrifices for customer who complain. I have seen this work several times with AT&T, Time Warner, COX and even Fedex to mention a few. The Fedex one was particularly interesting since it was clearly our fault and they ended up paying $1000 for our mistake.
How do they know these shipping rates weren't affected by skyrocketing fuel costs? This seems quite speculative even if they called someone at DHL who may not be authorized to comment.
I'm with you. Fuel costs are more logical. Although that picture of a DHL airplane is awfully compelling.
the words "We have something you really have to see. And touch. " are important here. iPad 3 will be unveiled and available at launch on Wednesday.
Nope. They would already be contacting staff to change work schedules and we would have heard it by now. Plus the hubs need to divy up the units and get them to stores.
Apple tv says it is back in stores on march 10. I'm betting that is also launch day
It sounds like you don't know what socialism is. Or capitalism.
Exactly!