And how do we get a Second Depression from here? Lots of ducks have to be in a row of course. Perhaps include these unthinkable;
- Germany reintroduced deutschmark
- India and Brazil crash
- Israel jumps the gun and start bombing Iran
- etc.
The first one was caused by food, though. And with last year's corn harvest being bad and this summer's weather being completely up in the air since we didn't really have a winter this year, who knows where food prices will go?
So when should I set the alarm to take money off the table and run? Bloomberg panel gave the number at $650. If it ever hits that, cash your chips and don't look back. How's your number?
The point about not losing sleep over your investments is valid.
Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share ). You can protect profits by selling off a portion of your holdings, and keeping some if you think the value will continue to climb. Thus, the percentage of your holdings would drop, but you would continue to have an opportunity to see the remainder increase in value (or possibly decrease).
The point about not losing sleep over your investments is valid.
Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share ). You can protect profits by selling off a portion of your holdings, and keeping some if you think the value will continue to climb. Thus, the percentage of your holdings would drop, but you would continue to have an opportunity to see the remainder increase in value (or possibly decrease).
Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.
On December 30, 1999 Microsoft broke the all-time market cap record at $663.9 billion. But they did it with a $199 stock in a much better environment. This is unbelievable in this economy!
As has been pointed out, their P/E ratio was ridiculous, making that valuation obviously unsustainable to anyone who looked at the fundamentals.
There is simply no comparison at all to Apple's situation. (I am not suggesting that you were, I was making a general comment).
Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.
Of course there are no guarantees in the stock market. However, in the long term (like decades), a diversified stock portfolio will outperform many other investments. Every investment has a risk, with potential upside and downside.
There are alternative investments that negatively correlate with the stock market as well.
Every individual has their own level of acceptable risk tolerance. Each investor should come to their own conclusions about how to build a portfolio that presents ample opportunity for appreciation, yet isn't so risky as to cause losing sleep.
No one is ever going to bat 1.000 in their investments. You win some, you lose some. The goal is to learn from your mistakes, get better with time, and have some investments that at least outperform the inflation rate, and maybe even the S&P 500.
If you don't care to do the research yourself, you can shove your money into mutual funds, ETFs, etc. and let the professionals try to figure it out.
For me, I am happy to have taken the risk of investing in AAPL. As AAPL's share price increases, it has become a larger percentage of my overall portfolio, but it is still well below 10% of my total direct holdings (there's some AAPL being indirectly held via various mutual funds). Note that I'm not required to liquidate my entire AAPL position. I can sell a portion and walk away with a bundle of cash, yet still have the chance to make more (or lose some). Most likely, if my AAPL direct holdings do exceed 10% of my total portfolio, I will consider selling some off to diversify.
Unfortunately not. They cause inexperienced investors and "fans" of companies without the acumen to understand how the stock market works to invest too much in one company, and eventually the bubble pops and people lose their shirts.
Used to be you had to be really old to have participated in the "last" bubble and the current one. These days you only need to be 25 or so. And yet people are still too foolish to have that much hindsight.
If you find yourself "cheering" for something that happens in the stock market, it's probably too late for you.
Buy low, sell high.
Disclosure - still long Apple, but very wary.
Focus on fundamentals, not on fear mongering emotive theories. AAPL has a long way to go to get near "catching up" to its proper fundamental value. The new iPad ads big insurance to upcoming Earnings, we have big products in the pipeline, and a Forward P/E drastically low.
The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.
People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".
What "bubble" are you talking about? Care to elaborate?
We were having a hypothetical discussion about parabolic charts. Parabolic charts are, almost without exception, bubbles. Apple will be to, if it keeps going like this for much longer.
The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
Quote:
People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
There sure is a price where AAPL is overvalued, but we're not near it now. Of course, a Market downturn will send AAPL down, only to rebound highly when it does. But, 2011 was a terrible year for AAPL Stock, and with the death of Steve, not to mention his resignation, and the ending the year with that misguided downturn (and fake "miss"), in reality, the Stock should have started 2012 at $500 if it weren't for the holdbacks all year.
Not to mention, Apple almost doubled its growth in 2011, while the Stock lagged big time, so It's just playing catchup.
Anything can happen, but focusing on fundamentals will always be the smartest move. There's your floor.
Just for the sake of argument, let's suppose Apple is expected to post EPS of $60 per share in its FY2013, from the non-cash assets that it has. At a P/E of 11x, and cash of $140 per share (it currently has ~$100)..... is that unreasonable?
I am, however, not disagreeing at all with you that expected returns going forward will be much lower than it has been in the past few years.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...
Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.
Anything can happen, but focusing on fundamentals will always be the smartest move. There's your floor.
I agree.
And let's keep in the back of our minds - whether they pan out or not remains to be seen - the possibilities in: iAuto, iTV, iHealth, iEducation, iChina, iIndia, iBrazil, iEnterprise....
And let's keep in the back of our minds - whether they pan out or not remains to be seen - the possibilities in: iAuto, iTV, iHealth, iEducation, iChina, iIndia, iBrazil, iEnterprise....
Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...
Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.
Very much agreed. This is one reason that I feel "comfortable" buying AAPL.
I like to stick by a rule of Buying only companies I can follow and understand. I recently ignored that and bought some Haliburton based on the incredible fundamentals of that Stock and the Buy ratings out the wazoo. Big annoyance as now I remember as to why I don't like Buying stocks who's movements I can't put my finger on (it's been sideways for weeks now).
With AAPL, you have fundamentals, you have an understanding, and you can get a grasp of the near future and where your Stock will be, as long as basic expectations are met. Apple in 2 years from now will be a whole different story than Apple today. Today we have a lot of fruits of all the labor and incredible momentum the company has built panning out and accelerating, making this BY FAR the best company to own and invest in. In two years, people we will be seeing how a post-Steve era of innovation and maintenance is playing out. We aren't near that yet.
I will say it here: Considering no major Market downturns like we had last year (normal/par the course ones are fine, but I mean the two disastrous and untimely events that occurred last year and bogged the Markets down for a bit), *IT WOULDN'T BE FUNDAMENTALLY UNHEARD OF AT ALL* if AAPL doubles in Share price from its $400 start this year (again, remember, 2011 ended very manipulated-ly down and depressed for AAPL, giving about $100+ of 2012's upside simply making up for the BS levels 2011 ended at). I'm not saying that it WILL Happen, but I think that it's surely a possibility.
Comments
And how do we get a Second Depression from here? Lots of ducks have to be in a row of course. Perhaps include these unthinkable;
- Germany reintroduced deutschmark
- India and Brazil crash
- Israel jumps the gun and start bombing Iran
- etc.
The first one was caused by food, though. And with last year's corn harvest being bad and this summer's weather being completely up in the air since we didn't really have a winter this year, who knows where food prices will go?
So when should I set the alarm to take money off the table and run? Bloomberg panel gave the number at $650. If it ever hits that, cash your chips and don't look back. How's your number?
The point about not losing sleep over your investments is valid.
Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share
The point about not losing sleep over your investments is valid.
Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share
Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.
RSI for AAPL is at 86.77, heavily over-bought. I too would expect a correction next week
I hope it's a huge "correction" thanks to the short-term noise traders.
It'll be an opportunity to buy more to hold for the long haul.
On December 30, 1999 Microsoft broke the all-time market cap record at $663.9 billion. But they did it with a $199 stock in a much better environment. This is unbelievable in this economy!
As has been pointed out, their P/E ratio was ridiculous, making that valuation obviously unsustainable to anyone who looked at the fundamentals.
There is simply no comparison at all to Apple's situation. (I am not suggesting that you were, I was making a general comment).
... eventually the bubble pops and people lose their shirts.
....
What "bubble" are you talking about? Care to elaborate?
Why would you want a larger percentage to be owned by institutions? Private ownership lends a great deal of stability and reduces volatility.
This is true. Institutions have shorter horizons than individual investors.
Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.
Of course there are no guarantees in the stock market. However, in the long term (like decades), a diversified stock portfolio will outperform many other investments. Every investment has a risk, with potential upside and downside.
There are alternative investments that negatively correlate with the stock market as well.
Every individual has their own level of acceptable risk tolerance. Each investor should come to their own conclusions about how to build a portfolio that presents ample opportunity for appreciation, yet isn't so risky as to cause losing sleep.
No one is ever going to bat 1.000 in their investments. You win some, you lose some. The goal is to learn from your mistakes, get better with time, and have some investments that at least outperform the inflation rate, and maybe even the S&P 500.
If you don't care to do the research yourself, you can shove your money into mutual funds, ETFs, etc. and let the professionals try to figure it out.
For me, I am happy to have taken the risk of investing in AAPL. As AAPL's share price increases, it has become a larger percentage of my overall portfolio, but it is still well below 10% of my total direct holdings (there's some AAPL being indirectly held via various mutual funds). Note that I'm not required to liquidate my entire AAPL position. I can sell a portion and walk away with a bundle of cash, yet still have the chance to make more (or lose some). Most likely, if my AAPL direct holdings do exceed 10% of my total portfolio, I will consider selling some off to diversify.
Unfortunately not. They cause inexperienced investors and "fans" of companies without the acumen to understand how the stock market works to invest too much in one company, and eventually the bubble pops and people lose their shirts.
Used to be you had to be really old to have participated in the "last" bubble and the current one. These days you only need to be 25 or so. And yet people are still too foolish to have that much hindsight.
If you find yourself "cheering" for something that happens in the stock market, it's probably too late for you.
Buy low, sell high.
Disclosure - still long Apple, but very wary.
Focus on fundamentals, not on fear mongering emotive theories. AAPL has a long way to go to get near "catching up" to its proper fundamental value. The new iPad ads big insurance to upcoming Earnings, we have big products in the pipeline, and a Forward P/E drastically low.
The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.
People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".
Focus on fundamentals and leave the garb at home!
What "bubble" are you talking about? Care to elaborate?
We were having a hypothetical discussion about parabolic charts. Parabolic charts are, almost without exception, bubbles. Apple will be to, if it keeps going like this for much longer.
The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
There sure is a price where AAPL is overvalued, but we're not near it now. Of course, a Market downturn will send AAPL down, only to rebound highly when it does. But, 2011 was a terrible year for AAPL Stock, and with the death of Steve, not to mention his resignation, and the ending the year with that misguided downturn (and fake "miss"), in reality, the Stock should have started 2012 at $500 if it weren't for the holdbacks all year.
Not to mention, Apple almost doubled its growth in 2011, while the Stock lagged big time, so It's just playing catchup.
Anything can happen, but focusing on fundamentals will always be the smartest move. There's your floor.
Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
What are you basing that on?
Just for the sake of argument, let's suppose Apple is expected to post EPS of $60 per share in its FY2013, from the non-cash assets that it has. At a P/E of 11x, and cash of $140 per share (it currently has ~$100)..... is that unreasonable?
I am, however, not disagreeing at all with you that expected returns going forward will be much lower than it has been in the past few years.
Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.
Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.
Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...
Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.
aapl 585.56 -$4.02 -0.68%
Anything can happen, but focusing on fundamentals will always be the smartest move. There's your floor.
I agree.
And let's keep in the back of our minds - whether they pan out or not remains to be seen - the possibilities in: iAuto, iTV, iHealth, iEducation, iChina, iIndia, iBrazil, iEnterprise....
iDrool.
I agree.
And let's keep in the back of our minds - whether they pan out or not remains to be seen - the possibilities in: iAuto, iTV, iHealth, iEducation, iChina, iIndia, iBrazil, iEnterprise....
iDrool.
iSplit 10:1
SOT
My new iPad has taken 5 days to go from Ontario, CA airport to Oakland, CA airport...
In the meantime from the same order:
-- a CCK and charger were delivered from China
-- an AppleTV was delivered from Sacramento, CA
sigh?
Some potential Apple announcements to bump the stock before WWDC/iOS 6/OS X Mountainlion:
- New MBAs
- New iPad/ATV Content deals
- New iPad Textbook deals
- 2012 CQ1 Earnings
- New Mac Pros
- New FCP X
The latter 2 could appear before NAB 2012 on April 14Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...
Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.
Very much agreed. This is one reason that I feel "comfortable" buying AAPL.
I like to stick by a rule of Buying only companies I can follow and understand. I recently ignored that and bought some Haliburton based on the incredible fundamentals of that Stock and the Buy ratings out the wazoo. Big annoyance as now I remember as to why I don't like Buying stocks who's movements I can't put my finger on (it's been sideways for weeks now).
With AAPL, you have fundamentals, you have an understanding, and you can get a grasp of the near future and where your Stock will be, as long as basic expectations are met. Apple in 2 years from now will be a whole different story than Apple today. Today we have a lot of fruits of all the labor and incredible momentum the company has built panning out and accelerating, making this BY FAR the best company to own and invest in. In two years, people we will be seeing how a post-Steve era of innovation and maintenance is playing out. We aren't near that yet.
I will say it here: Considering no major Market downturns like we had last year (normal/par the course ones are fine, but I mean the two disastrous and untimely events that occurred last year and bogged the Markets down for a bit), *IT WOULDN'T BE FUNDAMENTALLY UNHEARD OF AT ALL* if AAPL doubles in Share price from its $400 start this year (again, remember, 2011 ended very manipulated-ly down and depressed for AAPL, giving about $100+ of 2012's upside simply making up for the BS levels 2011 ended at). I'm not saying that it WILL Happen, but I think that it's surely a possibility.