Since you're a "forecasting veteran" it should be obvious that what they put out in a press release is a teaser which will tell you little about the depth and quality of the underlying research. Makes for a good quote and page hits.
Oh, for sure. I used to write and place news releases like that, selling snake oil in the service of my firm's business development. I never claimed it was an honorable calling! (But at least I personally tried to imbue my pitches with a bit more factual foundation than a lick and a promise.)
Remember the words of that Master of FUD - Professor Harold Hill: "Oh, we've got Trouble! Terrible, Terrible, Trouble! Right here in River City!"
So when someone puts out a FIVE-YEAR forecast involving tablets, I say it's rubbish.
I agree and I believe the reason is that these people have the wrong idea of what a tablet is. I'll bet that most of these "analysts" think of tablets in terms of the failed earlier versions that tried to run Windows. And I'll further wager that even if they have seen an iPad, they see it only as a "toy" and not a enterprise-capable device. They seem to concede the current lead of the iPad but project on the idea that HP. Dell, Lenovo, etc., will eventually introduce "real" business tablets. In short, they don't get it.
Remember all those analysts predicting that WinMo would be the future market leader in smartphone OSes? And that was before WinPh was released or announced.
Let's examine this... so in 100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years you think Apple will still be leading the pack?
They certainly have plenty of momentum to push them even farther ahead for the forseeable future, but you can't say forever.
actually I would think it is a good bet that Apple will be around for "100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years" if only to provide service for a 1000 year old iPad LOL!
Apple led the GUI (that they stole) and got crushed by Windows. They led the mouse (which they stole) and got crushed by Logitech and many other vendors. Thinking that any technology company will lead forever is pure insanity, immaturity, and ignorance. And what lost company and I saving? That dumb made no sense but based on your thinking, it makes sense that you would say something like that. Apple leads the tablet market because they were first so they had essentially no competition. Then the tablets got popular, good for Apple, and numerous other companies jumped into the market and it only makes sense, even for a simpleton, that Apple will contonue to lose market share. Go back to school.
<strong>OMG... troll much?</strong>. Stop with the "Apple stole the GUI" meme.
IF anyone stole the "GUI" it was Microsoft.
Apple gave Xerox stock to LOOK at their GUI idea... And Apple made it better!. (read the Walter Isaacson book)
Cheap does not make a market... i.e. the Amazon Fire tablet.
Apple is <strong> STATE OF THE ART</strong>
those that buy the iPhone do so because they need it / want it , also the and the iPad, and the iMac and the Airport extreme/ Base station...
Customers are like sheep, until you "shave them too close" then they will turn in to a Wolf "and make sure that everyone else is a wolf"... alot harder to sell to a wolf than a sheep, so keeping people sheep is a good idea...
Apple makes " new weapons for sheep" whereas Andriod just makes the feed for sheep... thus the variety of products... (but beware of bored/ annoyed sheep they will move and turn into hybrid sheep/wolfs)
So in 2017 almost half of all tablets will be Android? 3.x+? Not 4.x+? Something is fishy here. In other words, if it is 50% Android, 90% of those could be "crapblets".
Assuming Apple continues its momentum, of course.
Well, by 2015 hopefully I can ditch my Xbox360, because I'm never going back to Windows, even for games. (Thank goodness for Xbox360 though, especially the newer more reliable ones) (But no Xbox720 for me unless there's some compelling content ~ eg. Assasin's Creed 2 is superb, I'm learning tons about Florence)
Windows 8? It took me 1 hour just to bl**dy run 3DMark 11 on my colleague's PC with Windows 7. I had to download 5 different things just to run a ~benchmark program~ ... That's how FUBAR Windows is. Let alone the nonsense that is Office, I mean, we love to hate it, but really, let's admit it, it's bloated garbage that is not standards-based and not interoperable to any reasonable degree. iWork at least is a pleasure to use, despite being proprietary. I'd like to conduct a course on web page mockups using Keynote, I found it much more pleasurable compared to Photoshop.
So here's the punchline: Windows and PCs are so irreparably broken that the iPad will simply dominate PCs. PCs won't go away, but iPad will be a de facto "non-PC" device ("post-PC" device). My mum just got her hand-me-down iPad and already she's downloading Skype and using it, emailing, playing games, viewing websites, well, you know the rest. She's a good MacBook user but the thing she likes best is no more heat (they live on the equator) like the MacBook fan running constantly...
This report may overestimate iPad's drop in market share, but it will certainly drop unless Apple stops intentionally gimping the iPad. Still no SD card slot? WTF? Because Apple wants to charge absurd prices for gimpy amounts of memory that the user never gets to update.
Still, the Retina display is amazing, I'll be buying an iPad soon just for the display. I actually own a nook Color now because it had a higher pixel density than the original iPad, making it better for an achaic pastime of reading books. Now text on the iPad is like reading a real book! I'll probably wait on more generation on the iPad, just to see if the next one runs any cooler.
This report may overestimate iPad's drop in market share, but it will certainly drop unless Apple stops intentionally gimping the iPad. Still no SD card slot? WTF? Because Apple wants to charge absurd prices for gimpy amounts of memory that the user never gets to update.
Nice try*, but no. That's nothing to do with anything. Android flooding the market is the only reason iPad marketshare would go down.
Quote:
I'll probably wait on more generation on the iPad, just to see if the next one runs any cooler.
It's a computer. It's going to be warm. The only next-gen thing worth waiting for that we know of now is the IGZO display.
This report may overestimate iPad's drop in market share, but it will certainly drop unless Apple stops intentionally gimping the iPad. Still no SD card slot? WTF? Because Apple wants to charge absurd prices for gimpy amounts of memory that the user never gets to update.
Why should everyone have to pay the price of including an SD slot (where cost is purchase cost, added machining cost for the case, added tech support cost, batter usage, and so on) when most people are happy without it?
Or maybe because Apple is focused on reliability and doesn't want to have to deal with millions of unhappy users when their SD cards get scrambled or jammed into the slot. If you really want one, you can get an adapter.
Why should everyone have to pay the price of including an SD slot (where cost is purchase cost, added machining cost for the case, added tech support cost, batter usage, and so on) when most people are happy without it?
I like the AirStash and if it were priced $50 like the current Kingston Wi-Drive 16GB with bridge mode it would be killer.
Only a matter of time before someone makes this. I got the Wi-Drive just so the Kindle could have some movies on the road and what the heck, it's only $50.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
Since you're a "forecasting veteran" it should be obvious that what they put out in a press release is a teaser which will tell you little about the depth and quality of the underlying research. Makes for a good quote and page hits.
Oh, for sure. I used to write and place news releases like that, selling snake oil in the service of my firm's business development. I never claimed it was an honorable calling! (But at least I personally tried to imbue my pitches with a bit more factual foundation than a lick and a promise.)
Remember the words of that Master of FUD - Professor Harold Hill: "Oh, we've got Trouble! Terrible, Terrible, Trouble! Right here in River City!"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer
So when someone puts out a FIVE-YEAR forecast involving tablets, I say it's rubbish.
I agree and I believe the reason is that these people have the wrong idea of what a tablet is. I'll bet that most of these "analysts" think of tablets in terms of the failed earlier versions that tried to run Windows. And I'll further wager that even if they have seen an iPad, they see it only as a "toy" and not a enterprise-capable device. They seem to concede the current lead of the iPad but project on the idea that HP. Dell, Lenovo, etc., will eventually introduce "real" business tablets. In short, they don't get it.
actually I would think it is a good bet that Apple will be around for "100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years" if only to provide service for a 1000 year old iPad LOL!
<strong>OMG... troll much?</strong>. Stop with the "Apple stole the GUI" meme.
IF anyone stole the "GUI" it was Microsoft.
Apple gave Xerox stock to LOOK at their GUI idea... And Apple made it better!. (read the Walter Isaacson book)
Cheap does not make a market... i.e. the Amazon Fire tablet.
Apple is <strong> STATE OF THE ART</strong>
those that buy the iPhone do so because they need it / want it , also the and the iPad, and the iMac and the Airport extreme/ Base station...
Customers are like sheep, until you "shave them too close" then they will turn in to a Wolf "and make sure that everyone else is a wolf"... alot harder to sell to a wolf than a sheep, so keeping people sheep is a good idea...
Apple makes " new weapons for sheep" whereas Andriod just makes the feed for sheep... thus the variety of products... (but beware of bored/ annoyed sheep they will move and turn into hybrid sheep/wolfs)
So in 2017 almost half of all tablets will be Android? 3.x+? Not 4.x+? Something is fishy here. In other words, if it is 50% Android, 90% of those could be "crapblets".
Assuming Apple continues its momentum, of course.
Well, by 2015 hopefully I can ditch my Xbox360, because I'm never going back to Windows, even for games. (Thank goodness for Xbox360 though, especially the newer more reliable ones) (But no Xbox720 for me unless there's some compelling content ~ eg. Assasin's Creed 2 is superb, I'm learning tons about Florence)
Windows 8? It took me 1 hour just to bl**dy run 3DMark 11 on my colleague's PC with Windows 7. I had to download 5 different things just to run a ~benchmark program~ ... That's how FUBAR Windows is. Let alone the nonsense that is Office, I mean, we love to hate it, but really, let's admit it, it's bloated garbage that is not standards-based and not interoperable to any reasonable degree. iWork at least is a pleasure to use, despite being proprietary. I'd like to conduct a course on web page mockups using Keynote, I found it much more pleasurable compared to Photoshop.
So here's the punchline: Windows and PCs are so irreparably broken that the iPad will simply dominate PCs. PCs won't go away, but iPad will be a de facto "non-PC" device ("post-PC" device). My mum just got her hand-me-down iPad and already she's downloading Skype and using it, emailing, playing games, viewing websites, well, you know the rest. She's a good MacBook user but the thing she likes best is no more heat (they live on the equator) like the MacBook fan running constantly...
Peace.
This report may overestimate iPad's drop in market share, but it will certainly drop unless Apple stops intentionally gimping the iPad. Still no SD card slot? WTF? Because Apple wants to charge absurd prices for gimpy amounts of memory that the user never gets to update.
Still, the Retina display is amazing, I'll be buying an iPad soon just for the display. I actually own a nook Color now because it had a higher pixel density than the original iPad, making it better for an achaic pastime of reading books. Now text on the iPad is like reading a real book! I'll probably wait on more generation on the iPad, just to see if the next one runs any cooler.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Junkyard Dawg
This report may overestimate iPad's drop in market share, but it will certainly drop unless Apple stops intentionally gimping the iPad. Still no SD card slot? WTF? Because Apple wants to charge absurd prices for gimpy amounts of memory that the user never gets to update.
Nice try*, but no. That's nothing to do with anything. Android flooding the market is the only reason iPad marketshare would go down.
Quote:
I'll probably wait on more generation on the iPad, just to see if the next one runs any cooler.
It's a computer. It's going to be warm. The only next-gen thing worth waiting for that we know of now is the IGZO display.
*nope
Or maybe because Apple is focused on reliability and doesn't want to have to deal with millions of unhappy users when their SD cards get scrambled or jammed into the slot. If you really want one, you can get an adapter.
http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/27/apple-has-a-solution-for-the-ipads-missing-sd-card-slot-and-usb-port-adapters/
Why should everyone have to pay the price of including an SD slot (where cost is purchase cost, added machining cost for the case, added tech support cost, batter usage, and so on) when most people are happy without it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Or maybe because Apple is focused on reliability and doesn't want to have to deal with millions of unhappy users when their SD cards get scrambled or jammed into the slot. If you really want one, you can get an adapter.
http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/27/apple-has-a-solution-for-the-ipads-missing-sd-card-slot-and-usb-port-adapters/
Why should everyone have to pay the price of including an SD slot (where cost is purchase cost, added machining cost for the case, added tech support cost, batter usage, and so on) when most people are happy without it?
I like the AirStash and if it were priced $50 like the current Kingston Wi-Drive 16GB with bridge mode it would be killer.
Only a matter of time before someone makes this. I got the Wi-Drive just so the Kindle could have some movies on the road and what the heck, it's only $50.