iPad tablet market share will dip to 50% by 2017, study says

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  • Reply 81 of 109
    pmcdpmcd Posts: 393member


    I doubt Apple need worry about Android. It's just one ugly mess. People may buy Android tablets based on low cost only to discard them. Windows8 tablets are a different thing. Unless something is done to wean business' obsession with Office, Microsoft could very well use that to gain a majority of the market. Unfortunately people are addicted to Word, Excel and Exchange. Office has largely been a destructive piece of software in the sense of playing a large part in keeping back innovation. We are talking word processing and elementary matrix manipulation being considered high tech. It's crazy and unfortunately a true nightmare.


     


    philip

  • Reply 82 of 109
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    apfeltosh wrote: »
    Apple led the GUI (that they stole) and got crushed by Windows. They led the mouse (which they stole) and got crushed by Logitech and many other vendors. Thinking that any technology company will lead forever is pure insanity, immaturity, and ignorance. And what lost company and I saving? That dumb made no sense but based on your thinking, it makes sense that you would say something like that. Apple leads the tablet market because they were first so they had essentially no competition. Then the tablets got popular, good for Apple, and numerous other companies jumped into the market and it only makes sense, even for a simpleton, that Apple will contonue to lose market share. Go back to school.

    Considering that most of your 'facts' are wrong, you probably shouldn't be telling others to go back to school.

    Oh, and btw, Apple wasn't first with a tablet and there was plenty of competition. My daughter uses some Windows slate for school, for example. It's just that Apple was the first to get it right - just like the GUI and mouse.

    ssa wrote: »



    That is exactly how Apple will lose market share.  Apple does NOT care too much about market share.  They care about far more about profit margins as they arguably should.  Apple will cede the low end market without contest because they market themselves as a high end brand.  If they sold a lower end model they could have higher market share, but they would cannibalize the profits of their higher end units.  As more companies have jumped into competing with the ipad the prices have dropped considerably sales of ipad competitors have grown considerably.  I could easily see some point in the future where Apple not only doesn't have a majority of tablet sale, but not even a plurality of the sales, but a majority of the profits due to having profit margins that are just that much higher than *any* of the competition.

    Market share is only important up to the point that you have sufficient users for developers to develop for the platform.

    Exactly.
  • Reply 83 of 109
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    And people wonder why I'm a teetotaler and won't ever do drugs.

    I'm not. A nice glass of scotch makes it easier to tolerate some of the more annoying trolls.
  • Reply 84 of 109
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 988member


    I don't see Android growing this much unless something different happens, like sub $300 tablets become dominant.

  • Reply 85 of 109
    granmastakgranmastak Posts: 298member
    <vc><strong>Market research firm NPD estimates that Apple's share of the tablet space will dwindle to just over 50 percent by 2017, while Android and Windows-based devices will begin continue to eat into the iPad's overwhelming lead by 2014.</strong>.

    Yawnzzzzzz!
    Are these the same people who said that the iPad won't amount to anything?
    Unless they start giving away android tablets I would not bet the farm on it. The only reason Android has a big market share is because the phone sets are either free or dirt cheap. Sure there are a few fandroids that buy them for the OS but the big numbers come from people who just don't want to pay for an iPhone. No such luck with tablets. The only one that sold was the cheapie Kindle fire and thats a travesty of both android and tablets.

    Windows Tablets? Really? Take two? The boat has sailed long ago! You never know but the past windows success was based on office, and that's all but irrelevant now!
  • Reply 86 of 109
    granmastakgranmastak Posts: 298member
    apfeltosh wrote: »
    Apple led the GUI (that they stole) and got crushed by Windows. They led the mouse (which they stole) and got crushed by Logitech and many other vendors. Thinking that any technology company will lead forever is pure insanity, immaturity, and ignorance. And what lost company and I saving? That dumb made no sense but based on your thinking, it makes sense that you would say something like that. Apple leads the tablet market because they were first so they had essentially no competition. Then the tablets got popular, good for Apple, and numerous other companies jumped into the market and it only makes sense, even for a simpleton, that Apple will contonue to lose market share. Go back to school.

    You mad bro? Get a life!
  • Reply 87 of 109
    jakebjakeb Posts: 557member


    I like how the android 3.x market share actually decreased from 2011 to 2012, but for some reason they think it's going to increase wildly from here on out.

  • Reply 88 of 109
    waybacmacwaybacmac Posts: 309member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apfeltosh View Post


    Apple led the GUI (that they stole) and got crushed by Windows. They led the mouse (which they stole) and got crushed by Logitech and many other vendors. Thinking that any technology company will lead forever is pure insanity, immaturity, and ignorance. And what lost company and I saving? That dumb made no sense but based on your thinking, it makes sense that you would say something like that. Apple leads the tablet market because they were first so they had essentially no competition. Then the tablets got popular, good for Apple, and numerous other companies jumped into the market and it only makes sense, even for a simpleton, that Apple will contonue to lose market share. Go back to school.



     


    I just LOVE this post! I'm gonna bookmark it. Gotta bunch of them. When I feel down, I like to read them over and over again. Never fails to bring a smile to my face, then a chuckle, then a good belly-laugh and I end up on the floor teary-eyed, laughing hysterically. Best comedy on the web! image

  • Reply 89 of 109
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by grblade View Post


    Studies??? 5 year out predictions??? Find me a study that 5 years ago said today in 2012 Apple would have 95% tablet share and be the most valuable company in the world with a $600 stock price and I'll show you a study source I'll pay attention to.





    This.


     


    It's like the local news channel announcing that your plans for ten days from now are solid because the weather forecast looks good from here.  Uh huh.  But...but...we have ALGORITHMS!  This is one of a vast majority of AI articles for which I only read the headline and head straight for the comments for personal amusement.  I feel that I shouldn't lend credibility to most of them by clicking the link, but the comments are so much better than the actual articles and I enjoy reading them. 

  • Reply 90 of 109
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


     




    It's really amazing that people are getting worked up over the fact that someone is offering a 5 year projection. That's very standard in business and most large businesses have market projections that go out 5 years or more - as do market research firms. Why is everyone surprised that there's a 5 year projection?



    If you're going to criticize this projection, you can instead criticize the assumptions or methodology - but you'd have to read the report to see that. They may have made reasonable assumptions and used decent methodology or they may not. But without knowing the details of how they arrived at their figures, any criticism is pointless.


     


    Based on my own marketing experience and the assumptions I can make, Apple dropping to 50% in 5 years would not surprise me in the least. It is one thing to maintain 80% share in a $200 device like the iPod. When you get into a device that's approaching $1,000 including accessories at the high end, there's a lot more room for differentiation. I fully expect that there will be a number of cheap tablets of various sizes at the low end where Apple doesn't even attempt to compete and it wouldn't surprise me for the low end market to eventually reach 50% as people start accumulating 2 or 3 tablets in the home. If you already have a full featured iPad, it is entirely reasonable to buy a cheap limited tablet just for kids to read books or watch movies while traveling, for example.



     


    I don't know that people are surprised so much as amused.  Ten day weather forecasts are a mainstay of weather apps and local news channels, but one never reads articles that suggest people should actually devise plans based on a weather prediction that is ten days out.  Can you imagine hearing a local weather report for May 6 suggesting that the Wedesday after next should be a great day for kite flying?  I'm certain most people will readily admit there might be some utility they're not aware of...but it's still amusing.  I don't even think most people would necessarily be shocked to see Apple at 90% market share or 10%.  Five year predictions are simply funny for the same reason 10 day forecasts are funny.  What person in his right mind uses them to plan accordingly? 

  • Reply 91 of 109
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    sol77 wrote: »
    I don't know that people are surprised so much as amused.  Ten day weather forecasts are a mainstay of weather apps and local news channels, but one never reads articles that suggest people should actually devise plans based on a weather prediction that is ten days out.  Can you imagine hearing a local weather report for May 6 suggesting that the Wedesday after next should be a great day for kite flying?  I'm certain most people will readily admit there might be some utility they're not aware of...but it's still amusing.  I don't even think most people would necessarily be shocked to see Apple at 90% market share or 10%.  Five year predictions are simply funny for the same reason 10 day forecasts are funny.  What person in his right mind uses them to plan accordingly? 

    Anyone who has ever run a business larger than a single employee landscaping firm.

    Like it or not, projections and estimates are a mainstay of any business. You make plans based on the best projections you are able to make. Then, when circumstances change, you adjust the plan.

    You can not plan for revolution. That's why it's silly to ask who projected 5 years ago that Apple would have 68% share (not 95% share) of the tablet market. The iPad was truly a game changer. You can, however, (and should) make plans based on the best information you have available - and then continue to check to ensure that the circumstances do not change. There are certainly many failures, but there are also many successes. It is not uncommon for businesses to hit their business plan projections reasonably well year after year if they have good people in charge.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the 50% figure is etched in stone or guaranteed. It is simply a matter of "based on what we know today and based on market dynamics that are expected to occur over the next 5 years, this is how we think this will play out"- and that's a very reasonable projection to make. If Nokia comes out with a tablet running Windows 8 that has full Windows capability, runs 20 hours on a charge, is comparable to the iPad in size, and costs $199, obviously the projections would have to change. But based on the current market and reasonable expectations for the near future, I don't see that dropping from the current 68% to 50% is the least bit unreasonable.

    And please don't get started with weather forecasts. It's an entirely different situation and far more difficult to predict.
  • Reply 92 of 109
    nhtnht Posts: 4,429member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    It's amazing that they would predict that the tablet market would continue to grow with Apple barely increasing with YoY sales at all. If they predicted their most likely scenario was Apple increasing their YoY sales dramatically but that the market itself was growing even faster, thus resulting in a lower marketshare, that would at least be a historically reasonable general conclusion for those that are familair with Apple, their competitors in the feild, or tech in general.

    Looks like were predicting limited production ramp capability on the part of Apple.

    Wisely they moved to percentages since those estimates were off for last year.

    Unwisely they bet against Apple. We'll see.
  • Reply 93 of 109
    diplicationdiplication Posts: 607member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    And please don't get started with weather forecasts. It's an entirely different situation and far more difficult to predict.


    Dont' let the global warming folks hear you say that!

  • Reply 94 of 109
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Dont' let the global warming folks hear you say that!

    I see you're confused, too.

    There's a difference between weather and climate. It is far easier to predict the climate over a period of years than to predict the weather more than a week or so out. Climate science is well understood and modeled.
  • Reply 95 of 109
    diplicationdiplication Posts: 607member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    I see you're confused, too.

    There's a difference between weather and climate. It is far easier to predict the climate over a period of years than to predict the weather more than a week or so out. Climate science is well understood and modeled.


    I'm not confused, just joking.  Did the Zanax run out? Jeeez!

  • Reply 96 of 109
    kibitzerkibitzer Posts: 1,113member


    Mr. Ragosta, let's get back to basics. The problem here is that the longer the timespan for a forecast, the greater the margin of error. We know that to be true, both intuitively and from historical comparisons of forecasts to actual results. When estimating growth rates that have been historically stable, forecasts can be made with a smaller margin of error. We can be confident that the world's actual human population five years from now, for example, will not deviate very much for forecast (barring some sort of black swan event like the planet being struck by a large meteor).


     


    (Although you've grown tired of weather analogies, one more useful comparison comes to mind - how the National Hurricane Center predicts the path of a hurricane. The 2012 season starts in a few weeks and extends through November. See the maps for a storm's expected path, and how the Cone of Uncertainty widens as the forecasters look further ahead in time. See a concise discussion of the Cone of Uncertainty in Wikipedia, and how it applies to forecasting in general.)


     


    The difference that you and the rest of us have is in how confident we feel about the accuracy of this group's five-year market forecast for tablet market share. I and others like me are much less confident than you. And, like you, there are a number of us on this thread who are or were involved in business forecasting for companies. I can tell you from experience that a major factor in forecasting accuracy is the depth and quality of the underlying research. Frankly, I don't see it in this case. What people lose sleep over - when they are charged with making long-term strategic decisions based on forecasts - is wondering what factors they have failed to foresee or take into account. Recognizing and quantifying all of the drivers that will impact tablets over the next five years is much chancier than estimating global population growth.


     


    Yes, both forecasts and decisions should always be adjusted in light of actual developments, but I'd hate to be the CEO who overcommits or undercommits resources based on inadequate forecasts and then has to scramble to recover. Even if NPDDisplaySearch's estimate turned out to be a worst-case scenario for Apple, that would signify a best-case scenario for each of Apple's tablet competitors. At best, a number of them will be elbowing each other in a profit-draining scramble for whatever share of the market that Apple doesn't own. At worst, they will squander resources on market failures, like HP's TouchPad and RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook. The CEOs who presided over those misbegotten products are gone.

  • Reply 97 of 109
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,912member
    Are they talking about the actual definition of [B]"market share"[/B] which is the percentage of units shipped by a company [I]in a single quarter[/I] compared to the rest of the industry?

    Or are they talking about [B]"installed base"[/B] which is the number of units actually [I][U]sold and in use[/U][/I] by consumers?

    I keep hearing reports like "[I]Android tablets have 30% market share... Apple slips to 60%[/I]..." and I wonder where these Android tablets actually are. Apple is selling the iPad as fast as they make them... while no other company feels it necessary to even announce their sales numbers.

    Apple has sold over 67 million iPads since April 2010... and I would imagine almost all of them are being used today.

    In contrast... we can't even get a straight answer out of [I]any[/I] other company about how many tablets they've ever sold!?!?

    Where are these numbers coming from? And market share and installed base are two different things.
  • Reply 98 of 109
    kibitzerkibitzer Posts: 1,113member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post



    Are they talking about the actual definition of "market share" which is the percentage of units shipped by a company in a single quarter compared to the rest of the industry?

    Or are they talking about "installed base" which is the number of units actually sold and in use by consumers?


     


    To answer your questions, I think all of us are assuming market share.


     


    Back to predictions. To demonstrate just how far off these predictions can actually turn out in a very short time, take a look at this forecast published in 2010 - yes, TWO YEARS AGO, by Yankee Group Research.


     


    http://web.yankeegroup.com/rs/yankeegroup/images/2011-tablet-forecast-snapshot.pdf


     


    It plotted 2012 worldwide tablet revenue for all manufacturers of somewhere between $30 billion and $40 billion for the entire year. Well, here we are, with Apple ALONE reporting $15 billion in iPad revenues for the first six months of its current fiscal year! So we can probably say that the whole year will end up with global tablet sales substantially more than what Yankee estimated just two years ago.


     


    And what about the U.S. tablet installed base? Yankee estimated about 30 million tablets would be in service by the end of 2012. Another big wrong-o. I don't know the exact size of that installed base, and I'm too lazy to dig it up. But Apple's latest 10-Q tells us that they sold more than 27 million iPads over the last two quarters!


     


    Yankee gives us more laughs when you look at some of their other snapshot predictions from 2010.


     


    So when someone puts out a FIVE-YEAR forecast involving tablets, I say it's rubbish.

  • Reply 99 of 109
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    kibitzer wrote: »
    Mr. Ragosta, let's get back to basics. The problem here is that the longer the timespan for a forecast, the greater the margin of error.

    Obviously.

    But that doesn't support your claim that no one would ever use a 5 year forecast or that forecasts are meaningless.

    As I said, forecasts are subject to change. Most people are mature enough to understand that. A forecast is only as good as the data available and assumes that no unforeseen changes occur. As time goes on, changes occur and the forecast must be updated.

    But that doesn't mean that the forecast is meaningless or that no one should ever use one as you claimed. Businesses do it all the time - and need to in order to have any kind of workable strategy.
  • Reply 100 of 109
    nhtnht Posts: 4,429member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Kibitzer View Post


    The difference that you and the rest of us have is in how confident we feel about the accuracy of this group's five-year market forecast for tablet market share. I and others like me are much less confident than you. And, like you, there are a number of us on this thread who are or were involved in business forecasting for companies. I can tell you from experience that a major factor in forecasting accuracy is the depth and quality of the underlying research. Frankly, I don't see it in this case. What people lose sleep over - when they are charged with making long-term strategic decisions based on forecasts - is wondering what factors they have failed to foresee or take into account. Recognizing and quantifying all of the drivers that will impact tablets over the next five years is much chancier than estimating global population growth.


     


    Yes, both forecasts and decisions should always be adjusted in light of actual developments, but I'd hate to be the CEO who overcommits or undercommits resources based on inadequate forecasts and then has to scramble to recover. Even if NPDDisplaySearch's estimate turned out to be a worst-case scenario for Apple, that would signify a best-case scenario for each of Apple's tablet competitors. At best, a number of them will be elbowing each other in a profit-draining scramble for whatever share of the market that Apple doesn't own. At worst, they will squander resources on market failures, like HP's TouchPad and RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook. The CEOs who presided over those misbegotten products are gone.



     


    So, pray tell why are businesses paying NPD and Yankee Group thousands of dollars for their business analysis and forecasts?


     


    Since you're a "forecasting veteran" it should be obvious that what they put out in a press release is a teaser which will tell you little about the depth and quality of the underlying research.  Makes for a good quote and page hits. 


     


    If NPD/Display Search's estimates turn out to be right then in all probability someone like Samsung wins.  Or whomever was contracted to make Amazon's tablets.  And your examples are one sided.  Both HP and RIM were/are dysfunctional.  Do you think that Lee Kung Hee used some forecasted data to see if smartphones were a good bet?  He already had a good idea of how many iPhones could be built.

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