Well I think that the Windows Surface RT at $39.99... and especially the Pro version at only $79.99, are going to sweep the tablet category by X-mas.
And don't forget, that the Surface tablets all include the full version of Office 13, plus a truly innovative keyboard cover... and the only devices to be allowed to have the patented Kick-S(t)and™.
You just try to install Crysis, Maya, or Adobe CS6 Master on your iPads and Kindles.
This is about survival for Amazon. Most of the things they sell are going digital - books, music, movies, games, etc - and the two major mobile platforms have their own stores (iTunes and the App Store on iOS, Play on Android). If Amazon doesn't control their own platform they're totally screwed in the long-run. The pricing is aggressive but you have to wonder if it's sustainable and whether it will scale. Apple famously spends a lot of money to secure components to manufacture devices at scale. Amazon can't afford that. They're not profitable and they don't have a lot of cash left. Amazon isn't a big international player either, so that also limits them as a platform. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Good analysis. Personally, I hate companies like Amazon, they personify everything that is bad about capitalism, so your post actually cheered me up substantially by reminding me how fragile they are as a company and how likely it is that they will ultimately fail and be replaced by something that we can only hope is a bit better.
For the first time in a long while, I agree with Wu.
Amazon's business model makes no sense at all. It'll take a few quarters to show up as an earnings blow up, but it will.
Yep. They seem to be playing the printer/ink but forgetting that to make profit they need to have higher prices on that ink.
Feels to me like this is still the same loss leader game they were doing with the Kindle and with ebooks. To lure folks to the store to shop for more pricey things that will make them a profit.
I certainly wonder how in the world Amazon has managed to have a P/E on their stock of 312. If they were trading at the same P/E as Apple, they'd collapse from $255 a share to about $13.
Truly one of the strangest stocks out there and a great demonstration of how manipulated some stocks are. FB is clearly losing its air (should be at $7-8?), and to be fair AMZN really should too. Alternately Apple should be trading at $13,000 a share, but that's assuming fairness.
If Apple's P/E rocketed to 312 that'd make a lot of people here quite happy
Page hits. Blogs only care about them, Apple gets the most. Analysts etc know this so the name drop Appke as much as they can so their shit gets spread around.
You see, $249 for 8"? or $499 for 10" iPad? Take the 8", no brainer.
In the end, Amazon is not trying to beat Apple, Amazon is trying to destroy the field, so that nobody can make decent money on hardware. That would hurt Apple the most, because other OEMs are not making much in the first place.
I dont agree at all, the ipad mini will probably come with only 16g of spaces (if not 8), no 4g support. It may hurt ipad 2 sales a bit, but the ipad 3 with retina display has much better stats and a choice of 16/32/64g of spaces.
I don't think Apple can completely ignore Amazon but I think other companies will be directly impacted by their low cost tablets more than Apple will be. On several tech sites ie seen post from people saying they were going to purchase a Nexus 7 but now decided to wait for the new Fire instead, Will anyone even care about Windows RT tablets?
Agreed, this move by Amazon may make the Windows RT tablet DOA. I can't believe how complicated Microsoft is making things for the general public...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
The sucky thing is these cheap devices are going to condition people into thinking all tablets should be $199. The average Joe isn't going to know (or care) that Amazon is selling these things at cost or a loss. All they care about is getting something cheap. But how do hardware companies like HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus etc. compete with that? Apple might be able to take a hit on margins but they can't.
I wouldn't worry too much, that hasn't worked so far with all of the cheap Windows machines out there. Apple has been enjoying increasing sales in the desktop/laptop department.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
But then that'd hurt Apple's margin a lot.
You see, $249 for 8"? or $499 for 10" iPad? Take the 8", no brainer.
In the end, Amazon is not trying to beat Apple, Amazon is trying to destroy the field, so that nobody can make decent money on hardware. That would hurt Apple the most, because other OEMs are not making much in the first place.
iPads currently start at $399. For anyone who currently has an iOS device of any kind moving to a $399 iPad is a no brainer. Who wants to start a ground zero with applications?
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300,-.
My long bet says that it will not do well at all, and come Q1 when the Pro is supposed to hit the market, either 1) the miss their deadline and delay it, or 2) they don't release it at all and call it a "reference design" for their OEMs. Who, by this time, have marked down all of their X-Mas tablets by 50% or more.
No "window" for Windows Surface Pro as I can see, unless MS is prepared to seriously reduce the price. That's rather unfortunate for them considering they haven't even released a price (or product) yet. This leaves the market for the poor, and soon to get much poorer OEMs, who will be killing themselves in the fastest race to the bottom we have ever witnessed.
Oh I agree that Apple probably can't go over $299 price point with a smaller iPad. But I find it ironic that the same folks on these tech sites who claim Nexus 7, Windows RT, Transformer Prime, etc. are better than the iPad never compare new offerings to these devices, never seem to wonder how a Kindle Fire will affect those sales. it's all about the iPad. If these new Fires are all that who will give a shit about a Samsung or Asus, or even Windows RT tablet. People might even have second thoughts about the Nexus 7. Who knows. But for all the talk of Apple being a bubble ready to burst what about Amazon. Up $5 this morning. PE over 300 when Apple and Microsoft's is under 16. If any stock is inflated I think it's Amazon's.
The windows tablets will may come with office to help gain market share. I see a market for those because Ms will be able to offer a complete solution to entreprises that are already using office. Even if Office is not pre-installed, its still being offered. I see Microsolft hurting android a lot and I dont think Ms will ever make an android version of office. Lets hope Apple can convinced Ms to releasy office for iOS.
The amazon stock valuation is just plain ridiculous indeed. That co will never be able to rise profit to match that valuation. If the next earnings are not good, it will melt imo.
The 4G version with data plan of $50 per annum is very attractive.
Until you find put that they picked the carrier and it's not LTE in your/most areas yet and won't be for another year possibly. Or that the limit is 250mb. And if you do over that your options are either having cell data off for the rest of the month or being throttled down to 3G speeds and paying overages at standard rates which could mean as much as $50 - 100 a month. Etc. We need those kind of details before we can say this deal is really that awesome
Amazon is very creative to price the data plan: probably part of the $500 asking price will be allocated to the data costs, and it probably assumes that machine will not last for too long before someone replaces it with an updated version
Well there is that too. Including perhaps that the cell data fee is non refundable or transferable so if you buy it and then return your Fire you are screwed. Maybe give you like a week to return with it refunded to avoid legal issues, but otherwise.
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300,-.
Kind of a no brainer. Everyone is trying to beat the iPad. At least in the eyes of Shaw Wu and friends
Sorry, but I'm tired of all the "hater" nonsense. If you're not a drooling "fanboy", then you're some kind of "hater" or "troll". Why can't people have a difference of opinion without being called names?
I think Apple's model of making more money off the hardware side is a more sound business model, even though Bezos's wants the consumer to think its a ripoff. Get the money up front and then let people do what they want with their device. What Bezos is doing is basically selling content and giving you a "free" device to view it on.
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300,-.
My long bet says that it will not do well at all, and come Q1 when the Pro is supposed to hit the market, either 1) the miss their deadline and delay it, or 2) they don't release it at all and call it a "reference design" for their OEMs. Who, by this time, have marked down all of their X-Mas tablets by 50% or more.
No "window" for Windows Surface Pro as I can see, unless MS is prepared to seriously reduce the price. That's rather unfortunate for them considering they haven't even released a price (or product) yet. This leaves the market for the poor, and soon to get much poorer OEMs, who will be killing themselves in the fastest race to the bottom we have ever witnessed.
Apple -> Amazon -> Android = "AAA Tablet League".
I disagree. I can't see Microsoft selling anything at a loss. They certainly didn't try to buy market share with the Zune. I believe they'll try to be competiive, but they won't sell below cost. I suspect the Surface RT will sell for the same $400 as the iPad 2.
The $499 tablet appears to be plastic and has a $200 premium over the wifi only model. Is the cellular radio the only difference between the two?
Yes, it's the only difference. The iPad WiFi+LTE has a $130 premium. Amazon's is more because they are subsidizing that $50/year LTE data plan from AT&T.
Yes, it's the only difference. The iPad WiFi+LTE has a $130 premium. Amazon's is more because they are subsidizing that $50/year LTE data plan from AT&T.
200$ for lte acid 50$ on top of that for the data. With 50$ more you can buy 2 wifi, it makes no sense. But the 299$ is a huge treat to the iPad IMHO, the price disparity is huge. I have bought the top of the line iPad 1 and 3 for 900$ and I can't see me doing the same again with this tablets having comparablet hardware so cheap. I can pay a premium but not 200-300$
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300 ...
If they sell it at 300, that would be 100 over the price they said they would price it at.
Agreed, this move by Amazon may make the Windows RT tablet DOA. I can't believe how complicated Microsoft is making things for the general public...
Complicated is the MS MO = they actually are doing a pretty good job "trying" to push the "one system to rule them all" approach with Win8. That, considering their history with releasing up to 7 variations of the same operating system (or was it 8?).
I wouldn't worry too much, that hasn't worked so far with all of the cheap Windows machines out there. Apple has been enjoying increasing sales in the desktop/laptop department.
iPads currently start at $399. For anyone who currently has an iOS device of any kind moving to a $399 iPad is a no brainer. Who wants to start a ground zero with applications?
Glad you mentioned that, because it is exactly the applications and "Closed Eco Systems" that MS is betting on, but not exactly the way most people think.
MS is going to sacrifice RT... and then point to how bad "CESes" are, while pumping up WinPro tablets from their OEMs. That's after deciding it "wasn't a good idea" to compete with them.
At that point:
a) all of the programs and software that is currently on the market for Windows is the competition to each AAA League App Store;
b) OEMs will bring the prices of WinTabs down so far to the point where the "good enough" crowd really does say,
"Well ya can't beat $79.95 for what I want to do with it. Who cares if I can't run all the top Windows titles smoothly. It has Office and I can do my taxes on it when not watching Hulu, surfing, email, or reading".
It's what they've been saying for years anyway... and they'll just install their same tired (legal?) old copies of software that they're familiar with, and use a mouse, USB keyboard, whatever.
The real losers in all of this, is going to be the OEMs. I expect half of them to be out of the consumer space within the next 2 years. Sell now.
Disclosure: the above topic was discussed recently at an IFA Berlin party I attended, along with some present (unmentioned company) and former boardroom members. A many number of my hunches were confirmed. There happens to be a German guy that was fired about a year back who, while not present, was well known by the other party goers. He got nailed for moving too fast on these predictions and not wanting to keep his company involved any longer in the PC market and "Consumer Product Wars". Turns out that a number of his predictions are coming true.
Last but not least, history will and is repeating itself. Difference this time: Apple will not be taken to the brink of collapse. There is a very good reason why they're hoarding their cash, but this is more a cushion than anything else. They will remain the most profitable tech hardware maker. But don't be surprised if their share price "roller coasters" (what else is new?) and that their market share drops. Sadly, there will be the old "Apple is doomed" to contend with... that is until the next revolution. I think we all know what that is, don't we...
Comments
And don't forget, that the Surface tablets all include the full version of Office 13, plus a truly innovative keyboard cover... and the only devices to be allowed to have the patented Kick-S(t)and™.
You just try to install Crysis, Maya, or Adobe CS6 Master on your iPads and Kindles.
/s
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke
This is about survival for Amazon. Most of the things they sell are going digital - books, music, movies, games, etc - and the two major mobile platforms have their own stores (iTunes and the App Store on iOS, Play on Android). If Amazon doesn't control their own platform they're totally screwed in the long-run. The pricing is aggressive but you have to wonder if it's sustainable and whether it will scale. Apple famously spends a lot of money to secure components to manufacture devices at scale. Amazon can't afford that. They're not profitable and they don't have a lot of cash left. Amazon isn't a big international player either, so that also limits them as a platform. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Good analysis. Personally, I hate companies like Amazon, they personify everything that is bad about capitalism, so your post actually cheered me up substantially by reminding me how fragile they are as a company and how likely it is that they will ultimately fail and be replaced by something that we can only hope is a bit better.
Yep. They seem to be playing the printer/ink but forgetting that to make profit they need to have higher prices on that ink.
Feels to me like this is still the same loss leader game they were doing with the Kindle and with ebooks. To lure folks to the store to shop for more pricey things that will make them a profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrstep
I certainly wonder how in the world Amazon has managed to have a P/E on their stock of 312. If they were trading at the same P/E as Apple, they'd collapse from $255 a share to about $13.
Truly one of the strangest stocks out there and a great demonstration of how manipulated some stocks are. FB is clearly losing its air (should be at $7-8?), and to be fair AMZN really should too. Alternately Apple should be trading at $13,000 a share, but that's assuming fairness.
If Apple's P/E rocketed to 312 that'd make a lot of people here quite happy
Page hits. Blogs only care about them, Apple gets the most. Analysts etc know this so the name drop Appke as much as they can so their shit gets spread around.
No one else gets hits so why talk about them
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
But then that'd hurt Apple's margin a lot.
You see, $249 for 8"? or $499 for 10" iPad? Take the 8", no brainer.
In the end, Amazon is not trying to beat Apple, Amazon is trying to destroy the field, so that nobody can make decent money on hardware. That would hurt Apple the most, because other OEMs are not making much in the first place.
I dont agree at all, the ipad mini will probably come with only 16g of spaces (if not 8), no 4g support. It may hurt ipad 2 sales a bit, but the ipad 3 with retina display has much better stats and a choice of 16/32/64g of spaces.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
I don't think Apple can completely ignore Amazon but I think other companies will be directly impacted by their low cost tablets more than Apple will be. On several tech sites ie seen post from people saying they were going to purchase a Nexus 7 but now decided to wait for the new Fire instead, Will anyone even care about Windows RT tablets?
Agreed, this move by Amazon may make the Windows RT tablet DOA. I can't believe how complicated Microsoft is making things for the general public...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
The sucky thing is these cheap devices are going to condition people into thinking all tablets should be $199. The average Joe isn't going to know (or care) that Amazon is selling these things at cost or a loss. All they care about is getting something cheap. But how do hardware companies like HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus etc. compete with that? Apple might be able to take a hit on margins but they can't.
I wouldn't worry too much, that hasn't worked so far with all of the cheap Windows machines out there. Apple has been enjoying increasing sales in the desktop/laptop department.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
But then that'd hurt Apple's margin a lot.
You see, $249 for 8"? or $499 for 10" iPad? Take the 8", no brainer.
In the end, Amazon is not trying to beat Apple, Amazon is trying to destroy the field, so that nobody can make decent money on hardware. That would hurt Apple the most, because other OEMs are not making much in the first place.
iPads currently start at $399. For anyone who currently has an iOS device of any kind moving to a $399 iPad is a no brainer. Who wants to start a ground zero with applications?
It's all about User Experience, Ecosystem, and Interface.
Not price. The also-rans *still* don't get it.
My long bet says that it will not do well at all, and come Q1 when the Pro is supposed to hit the market, either 1) the miss their deadline and delay it, or 2) they don't release it at all and call it a "reference design" for their OEMs. Who, by this time, have marked down all of their X-Mas tablets by 50% or more.
No "window" for Windows Surface Pro as I can see, unless MS is prepared to seriously reduce the price. That's rather unfortunate for them considering they haven't even released a price (or product) yet. This leaves the market for the poor, and soon to get much poorer OEMs, who will be killing themselves in the fastest race to the bottom we have ever witnessed.
Apple -> Amazon -> Android = "AAA Tablet League".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Oh I agree that Apple probably can't go over $299 price point with a smaller iPad. But I find it ironic that the same folks on these tech sites who claim Nexus 7, Windows RT, Transformer Prime, etc. are better than the iPad never compare new offerings to these devices, never seem to wonder how a Kindle Fire will affect those sales. it's all about the iPad. If these new Fires are all that who will give a shit about a Samsung or Asus, or even Windows RT tablet. People might even have second thoughts about the Nexus 7. Who knows. But for all the talk of Apple being a bubble ready to burst what about Amazon. Up $5 this morning. PE over 300 when Apple and Microsoft's is under 16. If any stock is inflated I think it's Amazon's.
The windows tablets will may come with office to help gain market share. I see a market for those because Ms will be able to offer a complete solution to entreprises that are already using office. Even if Office is not pre-installed, its still being offered. I see Microsolft hurting android a lot and I dont think Ms will ever make an android version of office. Lets hope Apple can convinced Ms to releasy office for iOS.
The amazon stock valuation is just plain ridiculous indeed. That co will never be able to rise profit to match that valuation. If the next earnings are not good, it will melt imo.
Until you find put that they picked the carrier and it's not LTE in your/most areas yet and won't be for another year possibly. Or that the limit is 250mb. And if you do over that your options are either having cell data off for the rest of the month or being throttled down to 3G speeds and paying overages at standard rates which could mean as much as $50 - 100 a month. Etc. We need those kind of details before we can say this deal is really that awesome
Well there is that too. Including perhaps that the cell data fee is non refundable or transferable so if you buy it and then return your Fire you are screwed. Maybe give you like a week to return with it refunded to avoid legal issues, but otherwise.
Kind of a no brainer. Everyone is trying to beat the iPad. At least in the eyes of Shaw Wu and friends
Quote:
Haters are going to hate, ...
And clichés are going to be flung about...
Sorry, but I'm tired of all the "hater" nonsense. If you're not a drooling "fanboy", then you're some kind of "hater" or "troll". Why can't people have a difference of opinion without being called names?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300,-.
My long bet says that it will not do well at all, and come Q1 when the Pro is supposed to hit the market, either 1) the miss their deadline and delay it, or 2) they don't release it at all and call it a "reference design" for their OEMs. Who, by this time, have marked down all of their X-Mas tablets by 50% or more.
No "window" for Windows Surface Pro as I can see, unless MS is prepared to seriously reduce the price. That's rather unfortunate for them considering they haven't even released a price (or product) yet. This leaves the market for the poor, and soon to get much poorer OEMs, who will be killing themselves in the fastest race to the bottom we have ever witnessed.
Apple -> Amazon -> Android = "AAA Tablet League".
I disagree. I can't see Microsoft selling anything at a loss. They certainly didn't try to buy market share with the Zune. I believe they'll try to be competiive, but they won't sell below cost. I suspect the Surface RT will sell for the same $400 as the iPad 2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant
The $499 tablet appears to be plastic and has a $200 premium over the wifi only model. Is the cellular radio the only difference between the two?
Yes, it's the only difference. The iPad WiFi+LTE has a $130 premium. Amazon's is more because they are subsidizing that $50/year LTE data plan from AT&T.
200$ for lte acid 50$ on top of that for the data. With 50$ more you can buy 2 wifi, it makes no sense. But the 299$ is a huge treat to the iPad IMHO, the price disparity is huge. I have bought the top of the line iPad 1 and 3 for 900$ and I can't see me doing the same again with this tablets having comparablet hardware so cheap. I can pay a premium but not 200-300$
No doubt about Apple's lead, but kudos to Amazon with the enhancements to their tablet line.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc
All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300 ...
If they sell it at 300, that would be 100 over the price they said they would price it at.
Glad you mentioned that, because it is exactly the applications and "Closed Eco Systems" that MS is betting on, but not exactly the way most people think.
MS is going to sacrifice RT... and then point to how bad "CESes" are, while pumping up WinPro tablets from their OEMs. That's after deciding it "wasn't a good idea" to compete with them.
At that point:
a) all of the programs and software that is currently on the market for Windows is the competition to each AAA League App Store;
b) OEMs will bring the prices of WinTabs down so far to the point where the "good enough" crowd really does say,
"Well ya can't beat $79.95 for what I want to do with it. Who cares if I can't run all the top Windows titles smoothly. It has Office and I can do my taxes on it when not watching Hulu, surfing, email, or reading".
It's what they've been saying for years anyway... and they'll just install their same tired (legal?) old copies of software that they're familiar with, and use a mouse, USB keyboard, whatever.
The real losers in all of this, is going to be the OEMs. I expect half of them to be out of the consumer space within the next 2 years. Sell now.
Disclosure: the above topic was discussed recently at an IFA Berlin party I attended, along with some present (unmentioned company) and former boardroom members. A many number of my hunches were confirmed. There happens to be a German guy that was fired about a year back who, while not present, was well known by the other party goers. He got nailed for moving too fast on these predictions and not wanting to keep his company involved any longer in the PC market and "Consumer Product Wars". Turns out that a number of his predictions are coming true.
Last but not least, history will and is repeating itself. Difference this time: Apple will not be taken to the brink of collapse. There is a very good reason why they're hoarding their cash, but this is more a cushion than anything else. They will remain the most profitable tech hardware maker. But don't be surprised if their share price "roller coasters" (what else is new?) and that their market share drops. Sadly, there will be the old "Apple is doomed" to contend with... that is until the next revolution. I think we all know what that is, don't we...