Launch of 'iPad mini' could push total holiday iPad sales to 30M

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Even without the launch of a new, smaller iPad, a new forecast calls for Apple to sell 21.6 million full-size tablets this holiday shopping season.

Analyst Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets said in a note to investors on Monday that he expects Apple will sell 21.6 million iPads in the December quarter. But that projection is based only on the current 9.7-inch iPad form factor available from Apple.

If the company were to launch a smaller so-called "iPad mini" in the current quarter, he believes it could result in an 8-million-unit, $2-billion net benefit for the company. That would result in total iPad sales of 29.6 million for the holiday quarter.

iPad mini Rendering

iPad mini render by Martin Hajek


The forecast comes as The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Apple has placed orders for 10 million iPad mini units for the holiday quarter. The new 7.85-inch iPad is expected to be unveiled this month and launch ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Production of the smaller iPad is said to already be underway at Apple's overseas suppliers. The device is expected to feature a screen with a lower resolution than the current iPad with Retina display.

The iPad mini is expected to be competitively priced to take on smaller tablets like the Kindle Fire, Google Nexus 7 and Barnes & Noble Nook. In recent weeks, alleged iPad mini parts have leaked, suggesting the device will come in black and white models and will feature a model with cellular connectivity to access the Internet on the go.

Last week it was rumored that Apple will send out invitations this Wednesday, Oct. 10,for an iPad mini media event. Based on previous product launch timetables, it's likely that the event would be held a week later, on Oct. 17, and the product would go on sale before the end of the month.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 71
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 987member
    What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?
  • Reply 2 of 71
    The market seems thrilled about this new iPad Mini. Sure wish I had not cancelled that sell order at ~695.
  • Reply 3 of 71
    allenbfallenbf Posts: 993member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post



    What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?


     


    100%, in my opinion.  It'll be the 'refresh.'

  • Reply 4 of 71
    The first 12 ordered will be for my grandchildren for Christmas!
  • Reply 5 of 71


    rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.


    http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html

  • Reply 6 of 71


    Originally Posted by leighlee View Post

    rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.


    http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html



     


    So what happens when none of those parts and accessories work with the new device? Does your company just get sued?

  • Reply 7 of 71
    rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.

    http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html

  • Reply 8 of 71


    oops, sorry, submit twice due to bad network connection, how to delete this post?

     

  • Reply 9 of 71
    19831983 Posts: 1,029member
    Double post sorry, read comment below. I wish there was a way to delete a comment here if you screw it up!
  • Reply 10 of 71
    19831983 Posts: 1,029member
    They talk about 21.6 million full-size iPad sales rising to 29.6 million together with the iPad Mini, I think that might be a bit simplistic. What about cannibalization of sales of the full-size iPad by the Mini? The total amount of sales will be lower I think. Even though the predicted introduction of an improved iPad (iPad-3s) together with the Mini might help sales of the bigger one. We'll see...
  • Reply 11 of 71

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    So what happens when none of those parts and accessories work with the new device? Does your company just get sued?





    personally i also have the same question, but know some people interesting in those leaked parts, just like iphone 5, before official announcement, people all putting their eyes on every parts leaked.

  • Reply 12 of 71
    My prediction: $199 with 1 yr AT&T data contract.
  • Reply 13 of 71


    Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post

    My prediction: $199 with 1 yr AT&T data contract.


     


    My prediction: AT&T kicks all their data plans up by $5 a month to compensate for a new iPad, since no iPads have contracts.

  • Reply 14 of 71
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by 1983 View Post



    They talk about 21.6 million full-size iPad sales rising to 29.6 million together with the iPad Mini, I think that might be a bit simplistic. What about cannibalization of sales of the full-size iPad by the Mini? The total amount of sales will be lower I think. Even though the predicted introduction of an improved iPad (iPad-3s) together with the Mini might help sales of the bigger one. We'll see...




    I agree. I have been waffling for some time about getting an iPad 2 or 3, but may go for the mini.


     


    Or the Nexus 7 (which is getting great reviews by iPad owners). So many choices soon...with the Windows RT tablets as well.

  • Reply 15 of 71

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post



    My prediction: $199 with 1 yr AT&T data contract.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    My prediction: AT&T kicks all their data plans up by $5 a month to compensate for a new iPad, since no iPads have contracts.



     


     


     


    Not that it matters... my prediction:


     


    iPod Shuffle - $49


    iPod Nano - $149


    iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199


    iPod Touch - $299


     


    iPad Mini - $349


     


    iPad 2nd Generation - $399


    iPad 3rd Generation - $499


     


    Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.

  • Reply 16 of 71
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post



    What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?


     


    No one actually knows for sure that this year's model won't have a Retina display.  The idea that it will be 1024x768 actually just comes from a single, idle "musing" by John Gruber.  The blogosphere has picked that up and turned it into an solid expectation but as far as I have heard it isn't confirmed at all.  


     


    The way I see it, there are basically two possible strategies:


     


    1) The mini is a cheap, small, and uses last years tech, cutting corners wherever they can.  


     


    In this scenario you'd expect it to be dirt cheap.  It would have to be priced lower than even last year's iPad as it would not be as capable as last year's iPad.  It would be competing head to head with kindle and hopefully in the $200 range. One would expect a plastic housing, non HD cameras, the low res 1024x768 screen, some kind of crap A4x or A5x processor that's "good enough" etc., etc. 


     


    Or ... they stop the strategy of selling last year's iPads at all and  ...


     


    2) The mini uses this year's tech and is just a smaller version of the current iPad (replacing the need for selling last year's model).  


     


    In this scenario, it would have an aluminium back, HD cameras, a Retina display and maybe even an A6 processor, and be priced more in the $300 range. 


     


    It looks to me like they are leaning towards option number 2 which is why I think they may be also revamping the current iPad model at the same time.  


     


    Think how confusing it will be if they come out with a mini, also come out with a revision to "iPad 3," and also keep selling iPad 2.  Would they also keep selling iPad 3?  If they do that makes iPad 2, iPad 3, iPad 3r, and iPad mini all on sale at the same time.  They would also need to change the name of iPad 3 from it's current "the new iPad" so they could use that for iPad 4.  Even if they drop the current "new iPad" (iPad 3), for "iPad 3r" (or some new name), that's almost as confusing as the first option.  


     


    How do you tell customers that "the new iPad" is actually different from "the new iPad" they were selling in the early part of the same year, and that the old one (now called something else), is the same model, but different?  The new revised iPad if it exists, will also look more like iPad 2 than the current "the new iPad."  You will have two almost indistinguishable iPads, but with more or less a two year gap in technology between them.  Also, what's the point of selling an almost two year old model for cheap (because it's old), when you have a brand new "cheap" iPad (the mini)?  And why perpetuate problems by selling either one or two models of the iPad with the 30 pin connector while simultaneously selling two models with the lightning connector?  


     


    If you simply throw away all the old models and just say iPad 3r == "iPad," the new mini takes the cheap seats as simply "iPad mini," and that's the whole lineup, period.  All of a sudden everything is clear and simple. 


     


    The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 

  • Reply 17 of 71
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by leighlee View Post


    rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.


    http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html



     


    Most of those parts are not parts but rather crappy unauthorised headphones and cables that won't fit.  Neither of the two actual parts shown are for the iPad mini unless they've switched the headphone jack back to the bottom again.

  • Reply 18 of 71
    realisticrealistic Posts: 1,117member
    Only 2 days until we find out if this rumor is true.
  • Reply 19 of 71
    realisticrealistic Posts: 1,117member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post


     


    ...


     


    The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 





    if Apple didn't price the iPad for the masses, then why is there no competition for it at its' current price point?

  • Reply 20 of 71

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BrianCPA View Post


     


     


     


     


    Not that it matters... my prediction:


     


    iPod Shuffle - $49


    iPod Nano - $149


    iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199


    iPod Touch - $299


     


    iPad Mini - $349


     


    iPad 2nd Generation - $399


    iPad 3rd Generation - $499


     


    Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.



    I think there will be overlap at the Mini/Touch.


     


    VerySmall/portable is worth more than SomewhatSmall/lessPortable-MoreReadable.  Lots of discussion on this (why is a laptop more valuable than a desktop...portability and the cost of miniaturization.  (why is a wristwatch more expensive than a wall mount clock?)


     


    Pants Pocket vs big coat pocket portability




    I would argue that the iPad Mini 'low end' will be 16GB at either 199 or 249, with 3g(ATT4g;-))&CDMA being $100 more, which align with your price point(s).


     


    $199 is the price point as set by Google/Amazon.  That's a damn low pricing umbrella.  You're gonna beat the Android people into selling for a loss and/or at crapware quality levels and only Amazon can afford to do that.  Maybe MotoMobo/Google, but they appear to be shutting down that division.

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