I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday
That's too much, isn't it? It would put the little thing selling half iPhone-like quantities. That's like more than 10 million/quarter, plus sales form its bigger brother...
That's too much, isn't it? It would put the little thing selling half iPhone-like quantities. That's like more than 10 million/quarter, plus sales form its bigger brother...
Correct me if I'm wrong but it was 2 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours and 5 million in the first weekend of sales, which includes pre-ordered delivered that weekend (or at least attempted to be delivered by that weekend).
The iPhone 5 sold into only 9 countries on launch day whilst the iPad mini is launching in 34 countries on day one. I think that is important to understanding the number of units they have made for launch day when they can include so many countries.
Playing devil's advocate, maybe Apple doesn't think they'll sell that many so they starting with a lot more countries out of the gate but I wouldn't take that bet, especially considering the months we've seen the component leaks which tells me they've been ramping up production for some time.
So, if I were to gauge anything here as a negative against Apple it's 1) that they made too many for the 34 country launch of the WiFI model, 2) they made to many of the black units, 3) made too many units for the US market, or 4) are too successful with their 10" model that people really do prefer it over the 8". Everyone in the industry would trade places with Apple in a heartbeat to have those problems.
In conclusion, I think 2 million is very doable for a launch weekend (not going to speculate on pre-orders alone).
Can those screens be built in a quantity of say 4 million per month, not require superpowerful CPU GPU, large battery, and be be built for, say, $50 apiece?
See, practicality is as much of an issue as technology.
I think a sellout of the 16GB, albeit a little slowly (relatively, that is), indicates that customers are pretty price conscious of this form factor. For $329, the 16GB is not a bad deal, but $429 and $529 for the 32GB and 64GB seems like a LOT (especially when you add LTE to the mix). I wish apple would price the higher capacity versions a little more reasonably compared to the cost of the flash. How about $50 more for 32GB and $100 more for 64GB? That would make the prices
$329 for 16GB
$379 for 32GB
$479 for 64GB
The Top of the Line (non-LTE) would be under $500.
I think a sellout of the 16GB, albeit a little slowly (relatively, that is), indicates that customers are pretty price conscious of this form factor. For $329, the 16GB is not a bad deal, but $429 and $529 for the 32GB and 64GB seems like a LOT (especially when you add LTE to the mix). I wish apple would price the higher capacity versions a little more reasonably compared to the cost of the flash. How about $50 more for 32GB and $100 more for 64GB? That would make the prices
$329 for 16GB
$379 for 32GB
$479 for 64GB
The Top of the Line would be under $500.
I'd be more interested in one then.
You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.
Correct me if I'm wrong but it was 2 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours and 5 million in the first weekend of sales, which includes pre-ordered delivered that weekend (or at least attempted to be delivered by that weekend).
The iPhone 5 sold into only 9 countries on launch day whilst the iPad mini is launching in 34 countries on day one. I think that is important to understanding the number of units they have made for launch day when they can include so many countries.
Playing devil's advocate, maybe Apple doesn't think they'll sell that many so they starting with a lot more countries out of the gate but I wouldn't take that bet, especially considering the months we've seen the component leaks which tells me they've been ramping up production for some time.
So, if I were to gauge anything here as a negative against Apple it's 1) that they made too many for the 34 country launch of the WiFI model, 2) they made to many of the black units, 3) made too many units for the US market, or 4) are too successful with their 10" model that people really do prefer it over the 8". Everyone in the industry would trade places with Apple in a heartbeat to have those problems.
In conclusion, I think 2 million is very doable for a launch weekend (not going to speculate on pre-orders alone).
Or 5) people are waiting until it gets closer to the holidays before buying one.
I think there are atypically large supplies of Mini's.
It makes sense that not all products for the fall event would have been ready at the same time, so some would have a headstart on production and have some stockpiling for launch.
On the earnings call Cook was confident that component shortages would not hold back iPhone and iPad sales, but he did say new iMacs would be in short supply.
So it is likely iMacs were the last thing ready and the iPad production was up and running smoothly,backed with healthy supply chain. It also contains no bleeding edge parts, so there should be few yield issues.
So that might better explain why there still a few models, with first day delivery available.
The early white sellout I attribute to historical patterns being preferential for Black, so greater numbers of Black units where built.
This time that pattern didn't hold because 1) Black is kind of plain this time, being black everywhere and that cool edge cut is black. 2) People concerned that on black, scratches will be more evident.
Exactly. The catch is that Apple doesn't stockpile for weeks and months before a launch. It's a dumb move on several reasons. Security on the product details, security on the product, batteries drain even when something is off (slowly but it happens and who wants to get a device that could be drained almost out) and the biggie of demand being scaled differently than their guesses. They might think that the 32 GB Black will be the big seller but then it turns out to be the 64 GB White. So they would still be 'sold out' of that model with folks waiting. So they stock pile for say maybe factory production of 1 month, and scale further production based what sells out the fastest. Apple has learned that folks will wait.
And I suspect that the Mini at this point is a tad slow on the sales because folks are likely getting the Cell models when they launch later. Not to mention there's also the new full size model which could be taking some sales from the Mini. But I think the numbers will still impress for what is essentially Apple's first 'new' product in 3 years
So those millions and millions of iPad minis were made overnight?
However, the white models in higher capacity sold out quickly. Perhaps this is finding a market with a segment that simply prefers the white/silver model. I think it looks better than that black/metal model which is why I bought a white/silver iPhone this time around because I thought it looked better, perhaps that is the case here or perhaps that the smaller, purse-sized iPad in white is being bought by women who prefer that styling overall (I hope I don't sound sexist with that comment). Note: I include the additional descriptor of the metal color as I think that is important with this release.
I bought the white iPhone 5 and the white iPad mini where as before I had all black iOS devices. I was thinking with the iPhone 5 that I would not have a case so if it got a scratch it would not be as noticeable as the black/slate model. Turns out I didn't want to risk scratching it so I found a nice transparent case for the iPhone. When I get my mini I'll look around for a case. I'll probably get something like a day planner portfolio style. I didn't order the smart cover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton
AppleCare. It completely depends on how your gf treats her electronics. If she's careful, it is probably not worth it. Apple has a one year warranty on their products, so AppleCare basically says, if it fails during the SECOND year, Apple covers you. Some accidental damage coverage (up to two incidents) is also included for what amounts to a small deductible fee, so it also acts like a limited insurance policy. If there's a manufacturing defect, chances are that it will appear during the first year of use, so Apple's standard warranty already covers that.
I always get Apple Care+ for my mobile device but not for my desktops. The mobile devices are much more likely to get dropped since they are on the go all the time. The $50 screen replacement on the iPhone is a nice benefit although I have never so much as scratched any of my mobile devices. I still like the the worry free insurance. I almost always replace my devices every couple years so it works for me.
You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.
I understand everything about margin and profit and I agree with you 100%. But consumers don't necessarily see the value in those add-ons and are LESS likely to upgrade because suddenly their tiny little, cheap iPad is as costly as a bigger iPad (granted with less storage capacity).
As a shareholder, I would like to see Apple's stock continue to climb, but I am not always convinced their stretch for immediate profit and the highest margin possible is the best thing to do for total sales and market share. They do very well and many times my questioning of their strategies are assuaged by their quarterly results.
The only company in the world that can sell out of iPads, iPhones, etc., in record times, and its still not good enough for Wall Street. These analysts and speculators are making a ton of dough shorting this stock in a very strategic fashion, which always screws the small time investor.
No matter how many sold, it will be a Wall Street led "disaster" for Apple. (OMG, they finally fixed the emoticons here... Unbelievable!)
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
Take a look at Amazon's home page, they quotes Gizmodo's Brent Rose, "...You just made a 7.9-inch tablet, and you're dissing 7-inch tablets as compromised? Not only that, as we showed earlier, your 7.9-inch tablet has far fewer pixels than the competing 7-inch tablets! You're cramming a worse screen in there, charging more, and accusing others of compromise? Ballsy."
Amazon left out this part, "Are. You. Fucking. Kidding. Me...." Their tag line? "Much More for Much Less."
I think Amazon is pretty sad to quote this for their homepage. If this is what your closes competitor has to do to get attention. Being a long time Apple user, Apple's next "improved mini" will make them pee in their pants. BTW, I love using Amazon but I think when it comes to technology, cheap is not the way to go.
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?
The 16GB versions have sold out but not the higher capacity ones. I'm not surprised considering how they're price. I don't think people are going to be all that interested in shelling out for high Flash capacity mini tablets unless the prices come down considerably which Apple won't do. So in a year or two, because of this I think Apple will only offer the iPad mini in 16GB variations and leave the higher capacities for the full-size iPad.
I dont agree. I think a lot of people who don't care about having retina may go for a 64g mini for the same price of a 16g ipad4. On top of that the 32g and 64g are where Apple gets its margins, so why would they stop making them?? I will note that the white iPad sold out of all capacity and the black one will be the end of the week-end.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Bee
I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday
That's too much, isn't it? It would put the little thing selling half iPhone-like quantities. That's like more than 10 million/quarter, plus sales form its bigger brother...
Correct me if I'm wrong but it was 2 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours and 5 million in the first weekend of sales, which includes pre-ordered delivered that weekend (or at least attempted to be delivered by that weekend).
The iPhone 5 sold into only 9 countries on launch day whilst the iPad mini is launching in 34 countries on day one. I think that is important to understanding the number of units they have made for launch day when they can include so many countries.
Playing devil's advocate, maybe Apple doesn't think they'll sell that many so they starting with a lot more countries out of the gate but I wouldn't take that bet, especially considering the months we've seen the component leaks which tells me they've been ramping up production for some time.
So, if I were to gauge anything here as a negative against Apple it's 1) that they made too many for the 34 country launch of the WiFI model, 2) they made to many of the black units, 3) made too many units for the US market, or 4) are too successful with their 10" model that people really do prefer it over the 8". Everyone in the industry would trade places with Apple in a heartbeat to have those problems.
In conclusion, I think 2 million is very doable for a launch weekend (not going to speculate on pre-orders alone).
Not yet of course.
I think a sellout of the 16GB, albeit a little slowly (relatively, that is), indicates that customers are pretty price conscious of this form factor. For $329, the 16GB is not a bad deal, but $429 and $529 for the 32GB and 64GB seems like a LOT (especially when you add LTE to the mix). I wish apple would price the higher capacity versions a little more reasonably compared to the cost of the flash. How about $50 more for 32GB and $100 more for 64GB? That would make the prices
$329 for 16GB
$379 for 32GB
$479 for 64GB
The Top of the Line (non-LTE) would be under $500.
I'd be more interested in one then.
You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.
Or 5) people are waiting until it gets closer to the holidays before buying one.
True, but that can be said for every product Apple has updated recently.
I think there are atypically large supplies of Mini's.
It makes sense that not all products for the fall event would have been ready at the same time, so some would have a headstart on production and have some stockpiling for launch.
On the earnings call Cook was confident that component shortages would not hold back iPhone and iPad sales, but he did say new iMacs would be in short supply.
So it is likely iMacs were the last thing ready and the iPad production was up and running smoothly,backed with healthy supply chain. It also contains no bleeding edge parts, so there should be few yield issues.
So that might better explain why there still a few models, with first day delivery available.
The early white sellout I attribute to historical patterns being preferential for Black, so greater numbers of Black units where built.
This time that pattern didn't hold because 1) Black is kind of plain this time, being black everywhere and that cool edge cut is black. 2) People concerned that on black, scratches will be more evident.
So those millions and millions of iPad minis were made overnight?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
However, the white models in higher capacity sold out quickly. Perhaps this is finding a market with a segment that simply prefers the white/silver model. I think it looks better than that black/metal model which is why I bought a white/silver iPhone this time around because I thought it looked better, perhaps that is the case here or perhaps that the smaller, purse-sized iPad in white is being bought by women who prefer that styling overall (I hope I don't sound sexist with that comment). Note: I include the additional descriptor of the metal color as I think that is important with this release.
I bought the white iPhone 5 and the white iPad mini where as before I had all black iOS devices. I was thinking with the iPhone 5 that I would not have a case so if it got a scratch it would not be as noticeable as the black/slate model. Turns out I didn't want to risk scratching it so I found a nice transparent case for the iPhone. When I get my mini I'll look around for a case. I'll probably get something like a day planner portfolio style. I didn't order the smart cover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton
AppleCare. It completely depends on how your gf treats her electronics. If she's careful, it is probably not worth it. Apple has a one year warranty on their products, so AppleCare basically says, if it fails during the SECOND year, Apple covers you. Some accidental damage coverage (up to two incidents) is also included for what amounts to a small deductible fee, so it also acts like a limited insurance policy. If there's a manufacturing defect, chances are that it will appear during the first year of use, so Apple's standard warranty already covers that.
I always get Apple Care+ for my mobile device but not for my desktops. The mobile devices are much more likely to get dropped since they are on the go all the time. The $50 screen replacement on the iPhone is a nice benefit although I have never so much as scratched any of my mobile devices. I still like the the worry free insurance. I almost always replace my devices every couple years so it works for me.
even tho they say sold out of both "base" models of black and white.. we can still go to our local Apple store on Nov 2 yes?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.
I understand everything about margin and profit and I agree with you 100%. But consumers don't necessarily see the value in those add-ons and are LESS likely to upgrade because suddenly their tiny little, cheap iPad is as costly as a bigger iPad (granted with less storage capacity).
As a shareholder, I would like to see Apple's stock continue to climb, but I am not always convinced their stretch for immediate profit and the highest margin possible is the best thing to do for total sales and market share. They do very well and many times my questioning of their strategies are assuaged by their quarterly results.
Yes
No matter how many sold, it will be a Wall Street led "disaster" for Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
No matter how many sold, it will be a Wall Street led "disaster" for Apple.
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
Take a look at Amazon's home page, they quotes Gizmodo's Brent Rose, "...You just made a 7.9-inch tablet, and you're dissing 7-inch tablets as compromised? Not only that, as we showed earlier, your 7.9-inch tablet has far fewer pixels than the competing 7-inch tablets! You're cramming a worse screen in there, charging more, and accusing others of compromise? Ballsy."
Amazon left out this part, "Are. You. Fucking. Kidding. Me...." Their tag line? "Much More for Much Less."
I think Amazon is pretty sad to quote this for their homepage. If this is what your closes competitor has to do to get attention. Being a long time Apple user, Apple's next "improved mini" will make them pee in their pants. BTW, I love using Amazon but I think when it comes to technology, cheap is not the way to go.
Originally Posted by lkrupp
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?
I already have an iPad Mini. It's called the iPhone 5 !
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1983
The 16GB versions have sold out but not the higher capacity ones. I'm not surprised considering how they're price. I don't think people are going to be all that interested in shelling out for high Flash capacity mini tablets unless the prices come down considerably which Apple won't do. So in a year or two, because of this I think Apple will only offer the iPad mini in 16GB variations and leave the higher capacities for the full-size iPad.
I dont agree. I think a lot of people who don't care about having retina may go for a 64g mini for the same price of a 16g ipad4. On top of that the 32g and 64g are where Apple gets its margins, so why would they stop making them?? I will note that the white iPad sold out of all capacity and the black one will be the end of the week-end.