"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.
So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?
There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.
But those conditions/trends are started by humans.
So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans.
The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down. The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold. This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.
You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high. The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down. There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price.
So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans.
In a way yes. If something goes wrong such as a self feeding downward spiral which might have been triggered by a program, the computers will halt trading for 5 seconds. If there is a human error such as what happened to Google last week the humans can intervene. When 99% of the trades are happening in 2-3 microseconds how could humans actually participate when the fastest human reaction time is in the neighborhood of 200 microseconds such as with a loud noise reaction. Certainly not that great for a small investor. If a large investor thinks Apple is a good buy he will place a large order with his broker. Once that order is placed the computers take over and they may try to game the system by actually placing a large sell order to force the price down by a single penny then make lots of small purchases to execute the buy order. Having completed that it then cancels the sell order. Because the matching system is looking for equal buy and sell orders it can't execute the transaction instantly if it is really large which opens a window of a few microseconds to manipulate the price, but it is all automated.
I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday
I wish but that is the same amount of the iPhone 5. imo its more like 1 millions, but, I wish it could be more. I am very happy to see they sold out on some models. Lets not forget people have still not seen it, dont expect a lot of customers that haven't own any Apple products before to buy online before they even see the ipad mini.
The mini is a product that will sell well once people have seen how clear and vivid the screen is and how light it is. Its like a little gem compare to other 7" tablets.
So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?
There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.
But those conditions/trends are started by humans.
The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.
I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.
The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.
I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.
From what I understands, the funds started taking profit after the all time high to secure profits before the year end. Those guys are rated on performance. They now have more cash on the side lines and will have to buy back shares if the price keeps going lower. Did you notice the stock move to 580 follow by a fast bounce after nasdaq removed the halt. There is a lot of fund buyers below $600. If we get a broad market correction there will be strong support for Apple, especially with the current low multiple of 14.
The 200 daily moving average is at 580. We don't get a lot of buying opportunities below the 200 DMA in a year.
The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down. The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold. This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.
You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high. The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down. There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.
Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.
I really enjoy the naysayers who said it would never happen and would be a huge bust, now defending the lack of a sellout.
LOL.
I think this is a great product aimed at a specific market. I think it is a little overpriced, but that's life. I ordered my mini (my first iPad, i bought the wife an iPad 2 a few months ago for work). I never had a need or a use for a full size device. I do have a need and desire for the smaller one. Glad all the naysayers were wrong.
Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.
By market makers i mean the ones taking the other side of option transaction. If they are 10 open interest of a specific call and someone try to buy 1000 of them, who do you think sells those calls. They are the same ones who pin the stock near opex.
Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.
By market makers i mean the ones taking the other side of option transaction. If they are 10 open interest of a specific call and someone try to buy 1000 of them, who do you think sells those calls. They are the same ones who pin the stock near opex.
Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.
You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.
Except the new iPod touch only charges $50 for memory upgrades- so that kind of shoots holes in any argument for $100 (or for $50 for that matter).
The only one I see that has a $50 upgrade price is the 4th gen Touch from 16GB to 32GB, but that's a 2010 model that only seems to be priced to allow for a $199 and $249 price between the $149 iPod Nano and $299 5th gen iPod Touch.
Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.
I know its done by computers now, but I dont believe the Mm's only make money on bid's and offers. I am afraid they will sell OTM puts and calls and then exchange shares between them in order to pin the stock and make those options expired worthless or try to move to stock toward max pain.
Everyone knows that if you don't sell out in 24 hours, no matter the quantities, your product is a total flop. Expect a punishing response by the geniuses on Wall Street. The parade and crucifixion will be led by Shaw Wu and Gene Munster. Bring your own pitchforks and torches!
Why do people seem to like the white one better? The black one is imho nicer, and well, it's easier on the eyes to look at a black enclosure than at a white one???
Just guessing, but I think more women will prefer the iPad mini in white. More feminine?
Sometimes a thread just resolves itself, saving the trouble of adding much.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol
The mini is a thing of beauty- ill wait patiently (ok- impatiently) for retina and an A6. Don't mind paying $329 for retina- even $349.
I'm hoping this spring..... Hoping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
That sounds like real wishful thinking. I don't even see how that's possible. And I'm not just talking about the price, but the technical problems involved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
What technical issues? Technology takes leaps and bounds almost daily. A Japanese company just made a 9.6 4K LCD screen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
How are they going to stuff a huge and powerful battery in there? Is the iPad Mini retina going to be way fatter than the current one? That kind of defeats the purpose. It'll also be much heavier, which is also a big negative. The GPU will also have to be bumped up, in order to drive all of those crazy pixels.
Unless Apple totally changes the display technology and goes to something more efficient like the rumored IGZO, and battery tech takes a radical leap, I think that Apple is going to have to make many compromises to make a Retina iPad Mini.
And people were complaining about the iPad 3 getting hot? How would it be with the iPad Mini Retina? I could be wrong of course, these are just my thoughts, but I am skeptical.
And besides being bulkier and heavier (two big dings in this market segment), no way it could come within $20 of the current price point in early (or even later in) 2013.....
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Originally Posted by lkrupp
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?
It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.
Originally Posted by mstone
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price.
So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.
So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?
There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.
But those conditions/trends are started by humans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans.
The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down. The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold. This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.
You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high. The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down. There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Originally Posted by mstone
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price.
So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans.
In a way yes. If something goes wrong such as a self feeding downward spiral which might have been triggered by a program, the computers will halt trading for 5 seconds. If there is a human error such as what happened to Google last week the humans can intervene. When 99% of the trades are happening in 2-3 microseconds how could humans actually participate when the fastest human reaction time is in the neighborhood of 200 microseconds such as with a loud noise reaction. Certainly not that great for a small investor. If a large investor thinks Apple is a good buy he will place a large order with his broker. Once that order is placed the computers take over and they may try to game the system by actually placing a large sell order to force the price down by a single penny then make lots of small purchases to execute the buy order. Having completed that it then cancels the sell order. Because the matching system is looking for equal buy and sell orders it can't execute the transaction instantly if it is really large which opens a window of a few microseconds to manipulate the price, but it is all automated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Bee
I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday
I wish but that is the same amount of the iPhone 5. imo its more like 1 millions, but, I wish it could be more. I am very happy to see they sold out on some models. Lets not forget people have still not seen it, dont expect a lot of customers that haven't own any Apple products before to buy online before they even see the ipad mini.
The mini is a product that will sell well once people have seen how clear and vivid the screen is and how light it is. Its like a little gem compare to other 7" tablets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65
So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?
There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.
But those conditions/trends are started by humans.
The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.
I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.
I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.
From what I understands, the funds started taking profit after the all time high to secure profits before the year end. Those guys are rated on performance. They now have more cash on the side lines and will have to buy back shares if the price keeps going lower. Did you notice the stock move to 580 follow by a fast bounce after nasdaq removed the halt. There is a lot of fund buyers below $600. If we get a broad market correction there will be strong support for Apple, especially with the current low multiple of 14.
The 200 daily moving average is at 580. We don't get a lot of buying opportunities below the 200 DMA in a year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down. The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold. This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.
You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high. The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down. There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.
Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.
I really enjoy the naysayers who said it would never happen and would be a huge bust, now defending the lack of a sellout.
LOL.
I think this is a great product aimed at a specific market. I think it is a little overpriced, but that's life. I ordered my mini (my first iPad, i bought the wife an iPad 2 a few months ago for work). I never had a need or a use for a full size device. I do have a need and desire for the smaller one. Glad all the naysayers were wrong.
By market makers i mean the ones taking the other side of option transaction. If they are 10 open interest of a specific call and someone try to buy 1000 of them, who do you think sells those calls. They are the same ones who pin the stock near opex.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.
By market makers i mean the ones taking the other side of option transaction. If they are 10 open interest of a specific call and someone try to buy 1000 of them, who do you think sells those calls. They are the same ones who pin the stock near opex.
Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.
Sorry I must depart for baseball game. Buenas noches
Except the new iPod touch only charges $50 for memory upgrades- so that kind of shoots holes in any argument for $100 (or for $50 for that matter).
I'm seeing $100.
The only one I see that has a $50 upgrade price is the 4th gen Touch from 16GB to 32GB, but that's a 2010 model that only seems to be priced to allow for a $199 and $249 price between the $149 iPod Nano and $299 5th gen iPod Touch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.
I know its done by computers now, but I dont believe the Mm's only make money on bid's and offers. I am afraid they will sell OTM puts and calls and then exchange shares between them in order to pin the stock and make those options expired worthless or try to move to stock toward max pain.
Everyone knows that if you don't sell out in 24 hours, no matter the quantities, your product is a total flop. Expect a punishing response by the geniuses on Wall Street. The parade and crucifixion will be led by Shaw Wu and Gene Munster. Bring your own pitchforks and torches!
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightknight
Why do people seem to like the white one better? The black one is imho nicer, and well, it's easier on the eyes to look at a black enclosure than at a white one???
Just guessing, but I think more women will prefer the iPad mini in white. More feminine?
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
…I think more women will prefer the iPad mini in white. More feminine?
Racist. AND sexist. For shame.
Sometimes a thread just resolves itself, saving the trouble of adding much.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol
The mini is a thing of beauty- ill wait patiently (ok- impatiently) for retina and an A6. Don't mind paying $329 for retina- even $349.
I'm hoping this spring..... Hoping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
That sounds like real wishful thinking. I don't even see how that's possible. And I'm not just talking about the price, but the technical problems involved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
What technical issues? Technology takes leaps and bounds almost daily. A Japanese company just made a 9.6 4K LCD screen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
How are they going to stuff a huge and powerful battery in there? Is the iPad Mini retina going to be way fatter than the current one? That kind of defeats the purpose. It'll also be much heavier, which is also a big negative. The GPU will also have to be bumped up, in order to drive all of those crazy pixels.
Unless Apple totally changes the display technology and goes to something more efficient like the rumored IGZO, and battery tech takes a radical leap, I think that Apple is going to have to make many compromises to make a Retina iPad Mini.
And people were complaining about the iPad 3 getting hot? How would it be with the iPad Mini Retina? I could be wrong of course, these are just my thoughts, but I am skeptical.
And besides being bulkier and heavier (two big dings in this market segment), no way it could come within $20 of the current price point in early (or even later in) 2013.....