Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!g
I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?
You need to take into account the imacs have not started to sell yet. Everyone that wants one is waiting, so if they only sell 1 millions of those they will bust last year number.
The retina MBP are high end machines and are very expensive, they wont sell in big numbers. The bulk of the sales are going to be MBA and the 21.5 imac when it comes out.
I must agree that Apple will never have large pc sales until they can produce something below 1000. Maybe with ssd prices going down they will be able to it with air in a few years.
And if the Airs come out with a decent special on black friday, they may clear out inventory and boost those numbers a bit.
It was, and I'm sure it has something to do with it but the bigger reason is that we are in a Post PC world. If Apple loses a Mac sale to another PC OEM or other tablet OEM then it truly is a loss for Apple but we need to prepare ourselves that modern tablets are more than adequate for most people for most of their tasks.
One thing I've seen from Mac users isn't so much that they are giving up their Macs but that they aren't replacing them as often as they use to. It's affects the sales numbers. I used to buy a new 13" MBP with each revision but stopped doing that in 2010. I assume the I Pad had something to do with that. I will be buying a 27" iMac (moving away from notebooks, again because of the iPad) ASAP. I figure this will be my last Mac purchase for many years.
I do wonder what those not want Win8 will do moving forward. I will be a slow burn but Apple could easily reap the rewards. To me, the only important metric isn't the growth of the PC market but the growth of the PC sans Macs that will tell us the health of Macs in the market. Fir example, if we look at the PMP market the iPod is still king despite the drop in sales
Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?
On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen.
Of course they are going to be down. The 2 flavors of iMac's are not even shipping yet and when they do it will be late in the quarter and limited quantities. There is going to be a push forward into Q1. The only mac's shipping now are laptops so they are missing their entire mac desktop segment. Either way it is the iphone and ipads driving sales now. Mac's don't even move the revenue needle as the iphone/ipad knockout punch are so powerful
Of course they are going to be down. The 2 flavors of iMac's are not even shipping yet and when they do it will be late in the quarter and limited quantities. There is going to be a push forward into Q1. The only mac's shipping now are laptops so they are missing their entire mac desktop segment. Either way it is the iphone and ipads driving sales now. Mac's don't even move the revenue needle as the iphone/ipad knockout punch are so powerful
As much as I can't wait for the iMac I have trouble believing that will account for any huge numbers for the quarter.
Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!
I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?
To put it bluntly Apple has screwed up the management of the Mac line significantly. At least in the sense of the desktops. To highlight some of the screwups:
They waited far to long to get USB3 bearing Mac desktops out after Ivy Bridge arrived. Many will say it doesn't matter to Apples customer base to which I say bull shit! Apples dragging of its feet with respect to USB3 has put off many customers.
The Mac Mini was apparently delayed for many months just so it could launch with iMac which is asinine. This is especially damning when for the most part the Mini upgrades where trivial or even a regression in capability.
On that Mini regression they dropped the model with the discrete GPU which was Apples only low cost solution for people needing GPU acceleration. Frankly many if us where waiting for a significant improvement in the built in GPU, instead we get a regression.
The roll out of the iMac has apparently been put off for months due to technical glitches. When Apple announced the new iMac they stopped sales of the old iMac. That means weeks of no sales for the only desktop they have that maintains respectable sales.
While not a normal Christmas buy the Mac Pro is dead as far as being hardware desirable to just about anybody.
All of the above are desktop related but let's face it they took a very long time to meet demand for the new retina laptops. There is a real question as to their ability to meet any seasonal surge in demand for the retina machines.
As nice as the AIRs are, Apple is again dragging its feet with respect to suitable secondary storage space. In other words the built in SSDs are too small at each price point.
That is a short list off the top of my head. But I think the summary above highlights many of the issues Apple has brought upon itself, which could lead to dismal numbers for the quarter.
Sadly I can see Apple using the sales results for the quarter to prove that traditional computing is dead. Frankly after this fall new Macs and the general lack of effort seen there, I really believe that Apple has lost all focus on traditional computing and just doesn't give a damn.
Gene Munster's predictions are often wrong and never help. He is never low on AAPL. He contributes to the "average analyst numbers". When he targets AAPL to ridiculous highs, AAPL goes down as having "disappointed analysts' expectations". His comment about "worse case scenario of 6 million for iPhone 5" sales in first weekend began the AAPL descent when they 'only' sold 5 million. Only? Seems like a nice guy who loves Apple but I would like it if Gene took the next year off...
Can't. If Apple wants to maintain quality, margins, and [SIZE=16px]continue to dominate in PC consumer satisfaction (for many years now)[/SIZE], they need to forego market share in favour of simply being the best, but with barriers to consumer entry that are naturally occurring with the necessary increase in price.
Baloney! Apple has put zero effort into a reasonable desktop line up. If anything they have cut back on development efforts as the new iMacs and Minis represent almost zero effort at innovation.
Beyond that it is fairly ignorant to equate price and quality.
I really don't think Apple minds that situation.
Maybe Apple doesn't mind but I bet you will if Apple suddenly decides there simply isn't enough sales to maintain production of your preferred Mac. Quality, margins and all the other crap that gets your panties all wet mean nothing to Apple. If sales aren't there the product get axed just like the 17" Mac Book Pro and XServe. If not axed it goes into development stagnation like the Mac Pro and Mini. It is pretty foolish to imply that Apple doesn't care about sales. If anything they are in a position to drop much of their computing lineup without disturbing one investor.
Where the Mac can't go in retail, however, the iPad will.
It's a win-win for Apple.
A significant drop in Mac sales would impact Apple in a negative way. Maybe not in near term bottom line but rather in mine share that can impact long term support from the user community. Further dropping Mac sales would significantly erode confidence from the business community.
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.
People associate Apple with quality, not cheap crap.
No one is suggesting cheap crap. This idea that Apple can't produce a lower cost computer is nonsense. If anything the Mini represents a significant piece of crap if you consider what you get for the price ( this in comparison to other Apple hardware).
You can not be so gullible as to believe the marketing crap Apple let's out of the gate every so often. History, very recent history, shows that Apple is very concerned about sales and will kill a product so quickly that it catches many by surprise. If Apple wasn't concerned with Numbers we would still have a 17" MBP in the lineup.
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.
We have been hearing this for years. Every mac user and his uncle has been advising Apple on how to break into the enterprise and increase their sales by doing what you suggest in spite of Apple repeatedly stating that they are not concerned with the numbers as long as they are building the best devices with the best user experiences they possibly can. Apple is not just saying that because they are selling less computers than Dell or HP. They say it because that is what they do. Steve Jobs once said words to the effect that Apple could easily make a low end machine in order to sell more units. He finished by saying that if that's what they had to do in order to survive he'd rather pack it in. What would be the point?
"Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units."
I guess Munster doesn't believe there will be massive migration from PC to Mac because of Win 8.
Win8 certainly is ripe for people wanting to move to Mac if they have to learn how to use an OS again but this isn't something that will be happen instantly. It'll be a slow burn like with Vista.
Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?
On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen.
agree with you that most will stick with W7 indefinitely. but ... some major fraction of Windows users never got W7. and some other major fraction just need a new computer for whatever reason - and consumers can no longer buy W7 PC's.
those two groups are Apple's immediate target market. so i don't think it will take a year to see a significant amount of switching. and the longer MS delays allowing OEM's to sell W7 PC's again, the more will switch.
The fiasco of not having any iMacs to sell for months is an embarrassment for the once-proud computer division. Period.
They will still make more money from macs than all other OEMs (together) from PCs.
It's about choice. I seriously hope they axe the regular 13 and 15, so they can focus on retinas and airs, imacs (why not a smaller one, like 19?), mac pro (updated like it should). That's it.
They should also stop all iPods bar the touch.
All Apple software (besides trully pro apps) should be free (OS, iwork, ilife and they should make one game)
axe 16gb iphones (use 128gb models), maybe another iPhone model (bigger).
That's it. They are making too many devices... who cares about markets share. The mac is proof that marketshare does not matter that much in order to provide the best experience and earn the most money.
No one is suggesting cheap crap. This idea that Apple can't produce a lower cost computer is nonsense. If anything the Mini represents a significant piece of crap if you consider what you get for the price ( this in comparison to other Apple hardware).
I agree. The prices for a top-end iMac have been slowly decreasing, even with added features. The lower Apple can price a quality product, the better. I remember Steve Jobs being ecstatic about the price point of the original iPad. All things the same, you'll sell more kit at lower prices. I've been surprised that Apple has been able to create such cool products and keep their high margins going in this rough economy. Kudos. But I still get a tingle when I'm surprised by value.
I'm anxious to price out the latest iMacs. It's been too long!
13" rMBPs are too expensive. $1,699 for 128GB SSD? Not many buyers at these prices, I'm guessing.
I felt so too, but my little sister was convinced that she needed the $1999 256 as a replacement for her G4 MBP. She got more storage, and an SD card slot that she could put extra stuff onto easily enough, and shed a couple pounds in the process.
Apple does a great job playing the price points and features. It works.
This quarter will be hard without the iMacs or the updated Pro, and the Mini just doesn't seem competitive to me. But I doubt Apple will do "much" worse than the PC market.
Really? Are you just being a contrarian for the hell of it? I was speaking to what drives the company. There is a difference between ruthlessly axing a product that is loosing money, and demeaning yourself (in Apple's case) by making an inferior product just be ause it might sell.
You can not be so gullible as to believe the marketing crap Apple let's out of the gate every so often. History, very recent history, shows that Apple is very concerned about sales and will kill a product so quickly that it catches many by surprise. If Apple wasn't concerned with Numbers we would still have a 17" MBP in the lineup.
Apple has Zero New iMacs available as I write this. Only refurbs if you want a DVD drive and a discount.
I am a bit puzzled that you can't even Pre-order the 21.5". Is the (screen) "welding" problem worse than my beloved Apple is letting on?
Correction: Apple has zero iMacs available, only refurbs.
PS: We rightly pooh-pooh other vendors for announcing products that have no launch dates. I understand they couldn't do an event in the last two months of the calendar year and the changes were too big to make them silent upgrades when they are ready, but Apple still needs to be called out for doing what other vendors do all the time.
Correction: Apple has zero iMacs available, only refurbs.
PS: We rightly pooh-pooh other vendors for announcing products that have no launch dates. I understand they couldn't do an event in the last two months of the calendar year and the changes were too big to make them silent upgrades when they are ready, but Apple still needs to be called out for doing what other vendors do all the time.
Cook better not pull this shit too often or he'll be going the way of the 17" MBP.
[what's good enough at Microsoft is not at all acceptable at Apple]
Comments
You need to take into account the imacs have not started to sell yet. Everyone that wants one is waiting, so if they only sell 1 millions of those they will bust last year number.
The retina MBP are high end machines and are very expensive, they wont sell in big numbers. The bulk of the sales are going to be MBA and the 21.5 imac when it comes out.
I must agree that Apple will never have large pc sales until they can produce something below 1000. Maybe with ssd prices going down they will be able to it with air in a few years.
And if the Airs come out with a decent special on black friday, they may clear out inventory and boost those numbers a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
It was, and I'm sure it has something to do with it but the bigger reason is that we are in a Post PC world. If Apple loses a Mac sale to another PC OEM or other tablet OEM then it truly is a loss for Apple but we need to prepare ourselves that modern tablets are more than adequate for most people for most of their tasks.
One thing I've seen from Mac users isn't so much that they are giving up their Macs but that they aren't replacing them as often as they use to. It's affects the sales numbers. I used to buy a new 13" MBP with each revision but stopped doing that in 2010. I assume the I Pad had something to do with that. I will be buying a 27" iMac (moving away from notebooks, again because of the iPad) ASAP. I figure this will be my last Mac purchase for many years.
I do wonder what those not want Win8 will do moving forward. I will be a slow burn but Apple could easily reap the rewards. To me, the only important metric isn't the growth of the PC market but the growth of the PC sans Macs that will tell us the health of Macs in the market. Fir example, if we look at the PMP market the iPod is still king despite the drop in sales
Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?
On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen.
As much as I can't wait for the iMac I have trouble believing that will account for any huge numbers for the quarter.
To put it bluntly Apple has screwed up the management of the Mac line significantly. At least in the sense of the desktops. To highlight some of the screwups:
That is a short list off the top of my head. But I think the summary above highlights many of the issues Apple has brought upon itself, which could lead to dismal numbers for the quarter.
Sadly I can see Apple using the sales results for the quarter to prove that traditional computing is dead. Frankly after this fall new Macs and the general lack of effort seen there, I really believe that Apple has lost all focus on traditional computing and just doesn't give a damn.
Gene Munster's predictions are often wrong and never help. He is never low on AAPL. He contributes to the "average analyst numbers". When he targets AAPL to ridiculous highs, AAPL goes down as having "disappointed analysts' expectations". His comment about "worse case scenario of 6 million for iPhone 5" sales in first weekend began the AAPL descent when they 'only' sold 5 million. Only? Seems like a nice guy who loves Apple but I would like it if Gene took the next year off...
Beyond that it is fairly ignorant to equate price and quality. Maybe Apple doesn't mind but I bet you will if Apple suddenly decides there simply isn't enough sales to maintain production of your preferred Mac. Quality, margins and all the other crap that gets your panties all wet mean nothing to Apple. If sales aren't there the product get axed just like the 17" Mac Book Pro and XServe. If not axed it goes into development stagnation like the Mac Pro and Mini. It is pretty foolish to imply that Apple doesn't care about sales. If anything they are in a position to drop much of their computing lineup without disturbing one investor. A significant drop in Mac sales would impact Apple in a negative way. Maybe not in near term bottom line but rather in mine share that can impact long term support from the user community. Further dropping Mac sales would significantly erode confidence from the business community.
No one is suggesting cheap crap. This idea that Apple can't produce a lower cost computer is nonsense. If anything the Mini represents a significant piece of crap if you consider what you get for the price ( this in comparison to other Apple hardware).
"Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units."
I guess Munster doesn't believe there will be massive migration from PC to Mac because of Win 8.
Win8 certainly is ripe for people wanting to move to Mac if they have to learn how to use an OS again but this isn't something that will be happen instantly. It'll be a slow burn like with Vista.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe
Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?
On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen.
agree with you that most will stick with W7 indefinitely. but ... some major fraction of Windows users never got W7. and some other major fraction just need a new computer for whatever reason - and consumers can no longer buy W7 PC's.
those two groups are Apple's immediate target market. so i don't think it will take a year to see a significant amount of switching. and the longer MS delays allowing OEM's to sell W7 PC's again, the more will switch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markrogo
The fiasco of not having any iMacs to sell for months is an embarrassment for the once-proud computer division. Period.
They will still make more money from macs than all other OEMs (together) from PCs.
It's about choice. I seriously hope they axe the regular 13 and 15, so they can focus on retinas and airs, imacs (why not a smaller one, like 19?), mac pro (updated like it should). That's it.
They should also stop all iPods bar the touch.
All Apple software (besides trully pro apps) should be free (OS, iwork, ilife and they should make one game)
axe 16gb iphones (use 128gb models), maybe another iPhone model (bigger).
That's it. They are making too many devices... who cares about markets share. The mac is proof that marketshare does not matter that much in order to provide the best experience and earn the most money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69
No one is suggesting cheap crap. This idea that Apple can't produce a lower cost computer is nonsense. If anything the Mini represents a significant piece of crap if you consider what you get for the price ( this in comparison to other Apple hardware).
I agree. The prices for a top-end iMac have been slowly decreasing, even with added features. The lower Apple can price a quality product, the better. I remember Steve Jobs being ecstatic about the price point of the original iPad. All things the same, you'll sell more kit at lower prices. I've been surprised that Apple has been able to create such cool products and keep their high margins going in this rough economy. Kudos. But I still get a tingle when I'm surprised by value.
I'm anxious to price out the latest iMacs. It's been too long!
Apple has Zero New iMacs available as I write this. Only refurbs if you want a DVD drive and a discount.
I am a bit puzzled that you can't even Pre-order the 21.5". Is the (screen) "welding" problem worse than my beloved Apple is letting on?
I felt so too, but my little sister was convinced that she needed the $1999 256 as a replacement for her G4 MBP. She got more storage, and an SD card slot that she could put extra stuff onto easily enough, and shed a couple pounds in the process.
Apple does a great job playing the price points and features. It works.
This quarter will be hard without the iMacs or the updated Pro, and the Mini just doesn't seem competitive to me. But I doubt Apple will do "much" worse than the PC market.
Correction: Apple has zero iMacs available, only refurbs.
PS: We rightly pooh-pooh other vendors for announcing products that have no launch dates. I understand they couldn't do an event in the last two months of the calendar year and the changes were too big to make them silent upgrades when they are ready, but Apple still needs to be called out for doing what other vendors do all the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Correction: Apple has zero iMacs available, only refurbs.
PS: We rightly pooh-pooh other vendors for announcing products that have no launch dates. I understand they couldn't do an event in the last two months of the calendar year and the changes were too big to make them silent upgrades when they are ready, but Apple still needs to be called out for doing what other vendors do all the time.
Cook better not pull this shit too often or he'll be going the way of the 17" MBP.
[what's good enough at Microsoft is not at all acceptable at Apple]