Apple expected to see sustained growth in 2013 while rest of industry stays 'muted'

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Growth in the tech sector is expected by one analyst to remain "muted" this year, leaving Apple once again as one of the best ideas for investors to consider.

Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets published a new outlook for the coming year in the technology industry on Friday. In it, his only recommended investments among large-cap tech companies are Apple and EMC.

RBC


"We foresee 2013 to be another year of muted growth but expect demand will be more robust compared to the back half of 2012," Daryanani wrote.

In particular, he foresees PC sales to "remain challenging" this year as touchscreen tablets like Apple's iPad remain a more popular choice for consumers. PC sales could potentially rebound in the second half of the year, he said, thanks to enterprise customers who may be encouraged to upgrade their systems after Microsoft halts support for the Windows XP operating system

As for Apple and its supply chain, Daryanani expects "robust unit growth" over the next year. He has modeled for Apple sales to be up 25 percent in calendar 2013, for a total of 319 million units.

Most market watchers expect that Apple will see its year-over-year gross margins decline in 2013. Daryanani believes that if Apple can maintain or exceed its gross margins from 2012, upside will be seen on the company's earnings estimates.

"From a gross margin perspective, we believe the company should be in the 40-42% range in fiscal year 2013," he wrote. "Notably, a key driver that could add upside to revenue expectations would be the release of a new product line, iTV or otherwise as the company has historically entered a new market on a three years basis."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 44
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Noooooooooooo. Reeeeeeeeally. image

  • Reply 2 of 44
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,590member
    that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.
  • Reply 3 of 44
    You see Apple performing the exact opposite of Wall Street's view. Most of Wall Street sees Apple having zero growth by 2015. All you have to do is take one look at Apple's shrinking P/E and you'll understand how the company is being valued. High revenues and profits, no debt, plenty of cash reserve and products in high demand are doing absolutely nothing for Apple's share price. Wall Street only sees Apple as losing iPhone market share to Samsung and that's why Apple is sitting at $525 while Google is sitting around $750. Apple's iOS is dying and Google's Android is kicking the crap out of it. Wall Street values Google far more than Apple and that's the reality of the matter.
  • Reply 4 of 44
    You see Apple performing the exact opposite of Wall Street's view. Most of Wall Street sees Apple having zero growth by 2015. All you have to do is take one look at Apple's shrinking P/E and you'll understand how the company is being valued. High revenues and profits, no debt, plenty of cash reserve and products in high demand are doing absolutely nothing for Apple's share price. Wall Street only sees Apple as losing iPhone market share to Samsung and that's why Apple is sitting at $525 while Google is sitting around $750. Apple's iOS is dying and Google's Android is kicking the crap out of it. Wall Street values Google far more than Apple and that's the reality of the matter.

    Except for the fact that most of Google's revenue and profits still come from their ad business, not mobile OS sales. And when you include Motorola, it actually decreased their net profits in 2012.
  • Reply 5 of 44

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post



    You see Apple performing the exact opposite of Wall Street's view. Most of Wall Street sees Apple having zero growth by 2015. All you have to do is take one look at Apple's shrinking P/E and you'll understand how the company is being valued. High revenues and profits, no debt, plenty of cash reserve and products in high demand are doing absolutely nothing for Apple's share price. Wall Street only sees Apple as losing iPhone market share to Samsung and that's why Apple is sitting at $525 while Google is sitting around $750. Apple's iOS is dying and Google's Android is kicking the crap out of it. Wall Street values Google far more than Apple and that's the reality of the matter.


     


    I see your love for Android, go and enjoy it.

  • Reply 6 of 44
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,590member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post



     Apple's iOS is dying and Google's Android is kicking the crap out of it. Wall Street values Google far more than Apple and that's the reality of the matter.


    And Apple has 70% of the mobile profits. That's an *ss-kicking everyone would enjoy.

  • Reply 7 of 44
    welshdogwelshdog Posts: 1,637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.


    Yeah that's one of the frustrating aspects of the market.  Even if a company is supremely profitable, the stock still falls because it didn't meet the expectations of the street.


     


    Personally I feel the time to buy was years ago when Apple was $14 and the time to sell was last year at the peak (more or less).  Now is the time to wait and see.

  • Reply 8 of 44

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.


     


    It seems they are taking your advice.

  • Reply 9 of 44
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    A so this is why Apple's stock was down almost 3% today. ;)
  • Reply 10 of 44
    That barchart is ridiculous and compares Apple to the WRONG competitors. Where's Google and Samsung in that chart? Did somebody forget those? LOL!
  • Reply 11 of 44
    msimpsonmsimpson Posts: 452member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.


     


    The decision to sell is a lot more complex than just following what some "analysts" are predicting and what the current share price is.  You need to consider at what price you paid for the stock, tax considerations, and what your investment portfolio and strategy is.


     


    Some people will view lowered Apple prices as an opportunity to buy more shares.  


     


    When you consider the alternatives with what you can do with your money - what else would you invest your money in after you sell that Apple stock?  Despite what some analysts might think about Apple's actual revenues & profits and not meeting their "expectations", I think I would rather have my money in Apple stock.  

  • Reply 12 of 44
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,530member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MoreBeer View Post



    That barchart is ridiculous and compares Apple to the WRONG competitors. Where's Google and Samsung in that chart? Did somebody forget those? LOL!


     


    Samsung is not an American company and is not traded on any American stock exchange. Google is a search/advertising company, not an electronics or software manufacturer of any importance. The bar chart is correct. Wall Street doesn't give a damn about Samsung because it isn't traded here. Only desperate Apple haters looking to find anything negative care about Samsung. You know, like you for instance.

  • Reply 13 of 44
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by WelshDog View Post


    Yeah that's one of the frustrating aspects of the market.  Even if a company is supremely profitable, the stock still falls because it didn't meet the expectations of the street.


     



    That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.  If expectations were low, then Apple could beat them and rise.  But it would rise from a low level.


     


    Example: high expectations, stock is at 700, disappoints some people and falls to 650.


    Scenario 2: low expectations, stock is at 600, surprises everyone, rises to 650.


     


    Same earnings, same end result, different path.




    Amateur, immature investors cry about how unfair it all is, but they just don't understand how the world works.

  • Reply 14 of 44
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

    That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.


     


    So unrealistic expectations, created by people who have no idea what the actual situation is, and listened to by everyone else, despite their incorrectness, causes stocks to rise and fall inappropriately. 


     


    If stocks are speculation and a price of $700 is "speculation too high", shouldn't the PPS after a quarterly earnings call be in the negative (instead of positive) if that current stock price is wrong? 

  • Reply 15 of 44
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    So unrealistic expectations, created by people who have no idea what the actual situation is, and listened to by everyone else, despite their incorrectness, causes stocks to rise and fall inappropriately. 


     


    If stocks are speculation and a price of $700 is "speculation too high", shouldn't the PPS after a quarterly earnings call be in the negative (instead of positive) if that current stock price is wrong? 



    I think you've confused yourself as usual.  Try again, amateur.  Your statement makes no sense.

  • Reply 16 of 44
    sumergosumergo Posts: 183member


    Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?


    Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?

     

  • Reply 17 of 44
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

    I think you've confused yourself as usual.  Try again, amateur.  Your statement makes no sense.


     


    Fine, don't bother correcting me and just spew insults. That's the way.






    Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post


    Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?


    Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?




     


    Because you're an idiot, according to some.

  • Reply 18 of 44
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member


    deleted

  • Reply 19 of 44
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post


    Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?


    Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?

     



    Because steadily rising market value, when you consider it in context of the hyperbolic stock chart from last year, would result in an INFINITE stock value in no time flat.  When a stock gets ahead of itself (IE amateur investors like Tallest Skil) think that it should go up forever just because it's a profitable company, it goes up too far too fast.  That's when the dumbest of those amateur investors buy more and more, and then the stock hits a wall and corrects back closer to its real value.




    Inexperienced, amateur investors (like the one I mentioned above) bitch and whine about how unfair it all is, but they're just lambs to the slaughter for people who actually know what they are doing. You'd think that grown adults would have learned after the bubble of 2000 what a bubble stock chart looks like.  20,000 posts, must have a lot of time on his hands!  Better spend it learning!  I took my college economics classes from Alan Blinder and Paul Krugman, among others.  I wonder where he learned everything he knows?


     


    At 700 Apple was not a good investment.  At $500, I believe it is.  That's why I have spend the last month putting about 15% of my investment account into leveraged investments in AAPL.  I'm banking on AAPL being in the neighborhood of $600 within a month after the January earnings report.  Unfortunately the idiot politicians set up another crisis to happen in late Feb, so that may interrupt my plans, but I think I will still be ok.


     


    Tallest Skil ignored a question that he didn't know the answer to (or more likely, was ashamed of the answer once he finally looked it up).  Apple is expected this quarter to report earnings that are 4% LOWER than they were last year in this quarter.  Tallest skil is the perfect example of an amateur investor who doesn't have a clue what is going on but still wants to sound smart, so he will lead you to believe that Apple's $527 price (which, by the way, places it at the TOP of the list of most valuable companies in the USA) is super unfair and it is massively undervalued.


     


    The fact is, if a company stops growing earnings, the market will punish them.  Now, I think Apple will report earnings this month that are FAR higher than expectations, and that that negative profit growth will actually turn out to be false.  And what will happen, to the chagrin and confusion of Tallest Skil, is that the stock will go up.  Watch, it'll happen.  Apple will report great earnings (I hope, and expect), a bunch of dummies on this Apple FAN board will say "oh great watch the stock drop now" and the stock.... will rise.


     


    By the time the next earnings roll around, the dummies will forget about it, and will go back to saying (as they always do) that Apple always falls after beating earnings expectations.  They never seem to get around to asking themselves, if Apple is always falling, then how did it become the most valuable company in America (25% more valuable than #2!)?  Nah, they never confront that obvious contradiction  All they know is that they were so stupid they bought Apple at prices above $650 because other dummies on a apple fan site told them it was a good plan, so they're still underwater.


     


    Keep listening to amateurs trying to sound smart... you'll end up believing what they're selling - which is that the market is stacked against the little guy and that your favorite company is being unfairly treated. The actual reality is that the market is stacked against dumb people who can't see the big picture.  Amazingly, some of these dumb people actually broadcast how dumb they are rather than trying to understand why their previous understanding of how the market works was wrong, and to become a smarter and richer person.  


     


    It's a mystery to me.


     


    Buy low, sell high, dummies

  • Reply 20 of 44
    sumergosumergo Posts: 183member


    Well thanks for the "idiot comment" TS, I presume (hope) you left out the /sarcasm tag on purpose.  As an unsophisticated AAPL stock owner, I was just asking if anyone had a view why Apple seems to have such wild swings in the market.  Can anyone name companies that are doing as well as Apple that have the same volatility?

     

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