Tablets predicted to surpass notebook PC shipments this year

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Shipments of tablets, led by Apple's iPad, have grown at such an unprecedented pace that they are now projected to outpace traditional notebook PCs worldwide this year.

NPD


The latest data from NPD DisplaySearch calls for the tablet market to surpass notebooks in 2013. Tablets are expected to reach shipments of 240 million units this year, while 207 million notebooks will be shipped.

DisplaySearch noted that to date the iPad market has been "dominated by one major player, Apple." But the research firm expects that competitors will grow this year, leading total shipments to rise 64 percent year over year.

"The tablet market has been led by Apple's 9.7-inch iPad, but in 2013 a new class of small tablets will take over the market," DisplaySearch said. "Tablet PCs with 7-to-8-inch screen sizes are expected to account for 45 percent, or 108 million units of the market in 2013, overtaking the 9.7-inch size which will account for 17 percent share or about 41 million units."

The largest market is expected to remain North America, with a 35 percent share of shipments and 85 million total units. But close behind will be China, forecast to see 65 million units and 27 percent share.

Both countries are already ahead of the curve: tablet shipments outpaced notebook PCs in 2012.

NPD


The latest prediction from NPD DisplaySearch shows just how quickly the market has changed. It was six months ago, in July 2012, that the same organization predicted that it would take until 2016 for tablets to surpass notebook shipments.

But on Wednesday, DisplaySearch noted that notebook PC shipments have continued to slow, even in emerging markets, while tablets continue to grow.

"The tablet PC market saw increasing investments in North America in the second half of 2012, from major brands that tested not only new screen sizes and price points, but also unconventional business models to support their efforts," said Richard Shim, senior analyst with NPD DisplaySearch. The subsequent increase in shipments and demand underscored the benefits of segmentation in the market as it drove rapid market expansion. In 2013, further investments are expected worldwide, stoking demand to the point that tablet PC shipments will exceed those of notebook PCs."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 52
    Wait until the iPad mini goes A6 with a retina display. OMFG!
  • Reply 2 of 52

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post



    Wait until the iPad mini goes A6 with a retina display. OMFG!


    Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.

  • Reply 3 of 52
    Two things:

    1) Add whatever it takes to make the iPad Mini a viable alternative to a cell phone -- BT earphone/mic and hold to ear in a pinch.

    2) Office Apps... Legacy PC Apps... Emerging countries don't need no stinkin' Legacy PC Apps!

    The iPad Mini is just about the perfect vehicle to satisfy the mobile computing/communication needs for most of the people of the world...

    There, I've said it!
  • Reply 4 of 52


    Also if they can increase the storage will help for some people that like to add too much stuff and 64GB is not enough.

  • Reply 5 of 52
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,341member
    So, I wonder what Apple's computer market share is now. I know that most reports do not include the iPad, but they should.
  • Reply 6 of 52
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,426member
    Is a 'Chrome Book' or whatever they are called classed as a Netbook?
  • Reply 7 of 52
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    saarek wrote: »
    So, I wonder what Apple's computer market share is now. I know that most reports do not include the iPad, but they should.

    These are the figures for 2011. Apple's share probably increased in 2012.
    http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/08/notebook-marketshare-ipad/
  • Reply 8 of 52
    So even heavy laptops with detachable keyboards that owners would control with trackpads most of the time are counted as "tablets" now? Perhaps by virtue of cross-dressing the PC in tablet clothing, Microsoft can "win back" market share.
  • Reply 9 of 52


    Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 

  • Reply 10 of 52
    DisplaySearch noted that to date the iPad market has been "dominated by one major player, Apple."

    The iPad market has been dominated by Apple? Who'd'a thunk it...
  • Reply 11 of 52
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by JimofD View Post

    Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 


     


    Do you know what you're talking about? He's talking about every file. Photos are a different beast.

  • Reply 12 of 52
    genovellegenovelle Posts: 1,297member
    jimofd wrote: »
    Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 
    He's thinking about Android not being able to open these standard files. They just gained the ability to open vCard address files in the newest version. Apple has supported this since the first iPhone. It has worked in office just as long.
  • Reply 13 of 52
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Shipments of tablets, led by Apple's iPad, have grown at such an unprecedented pace that they are now projected to outpace traditional notebook PCs worldwide this year.


    NPD



     


    The part after 2014 on this graph, where they assume that the growth of tablets will start to slow down, is pretty obviously just a wild guess.  


     


    Where the balance between laptops and tablets is, and how many of each category will eventually fill the market is something we still have to find out.  It seems far more likely to me that eventually we will be looking at a 90/10 split on tablets/laptops not the 70/30 split they are selling here.  I could easily be wrong but so could they.  


     


    My point is only that these guys are just guessing on this point, and it's not even an educated guess.  There is simply no data, and no way to predict the eventual outcome here.   


     


    Also, since other than the fact that tablet sales are going up, the "leveling off" shown after 2014 is pretty much the entirety of this prediction, and since they admit to being dead wrong on their last prediction ... 

  • Reply 14 of 52

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maclancer View Post


    Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.



     


    For 80% of the world, I think 'any file _I_ want'  is covered. and 'any video I want' is limited only by the video content owners deciding whether or not to participate directly (iTMS) or indirectly (Apps) in the iOS ecosystem.


     


    Agreed, Off Net use is the primary requirement met by PCs and laptops.   However, the gap between On and Off Line is narrowing.   The computational model is reverting back to 'always connected' (ala pre-PC days).  But the transition is having a 'local working set'  that anticipates your less and less disconnected moments.


     


    More importantly, you forget to mention 'use'    (as opposed to save or download)  'any type' of  File/Video content.  The AppStore environment covers that space, again, so long as the creators of the format consider the iOS users theirs to support.


     


    Most non iOS compliant Video content is driven by bypassing standards for cost and/or reducing bandwidth and storage impact.  The fact that bandwidth and storage costs are going to $zero, mean that Apple, by adopting industry standards is under no long term obligation to build support into their system (flash).    


     


    Where is the thriving Ogg Vorbis ecosystem?  Is YouTube doubling down on Flash delivery?    I think your argument that there is PC Killer yet is misrepresenting the already apparent end game.

  • Reply 15 of 52
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post



    Is a 'Chrome Book' or whatever they are called classed as a Netbook?


     


    To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  


     


    Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  

  • Reply 16 of 52
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,677member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post



    So even heavy laptops with detachable keyboards that owners would control with trackpads most of the time are counted as "tablets" now? Perhaps by virtue of cross-dressing the PC in tablet clothing, Microsoft can "win back" market share.


    Yes, very clever. For each 'device' sold they can notch up one tablet, one laptop, and if in doubt, one netbook. Hell, if its big enough shouldn't it also count as a desktop? Marketshare - woo-hoo!

  • Reply 17 of 52
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maclancer View Post


    Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.



     


    Nah, disagree.  The way you've worded it here, you're wrong because technically, the iPad can do those things already and always could.  If your meaning is instead that they need to be able to "sideload" content for the iPad to be successful, then I think you're still wrong in that most folks basically don't care too much about that or do it that much.  If you are referring to the users having access to the file system on the device, then you are equally mistaken if you think this is something the average user needs/wants.  


     


    Access to the web so they can see cat videos on this that or the other site is far more important than the ability to save the cat video in question.   


     


    I can't think of much that it on the web that actually *can't* be saved on your iPad one way or another.  All the pictures and documents certainly can.  I can't think of any video sites (except perhaps the flash based ones) that won't play on an iPad and the iPad has native apps for all the major video sites like Vimeo and YouTube.  

  • Reply 18 of 52

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post



    Two things:

    1) Add whatever it takes to make the iPad Mini a viable alternative to a cell phone -- BT earphone/mic and hold to ear in a pinch.

    2) Office Apps... Legacy PC Apps... Emerging countries don't need no stinkin' Legacy PC Apps!

    The iPad Mini is just about the perfect vehicle to satisfy the mobile computing/communication needs for most of the people of the world...

    There, I've said it!


    Piling on...


     


    The Mini, and eventually the 'entry level Mini'  (last years model) coupled with LTE/3G support in world wide markets is the iOS entry into the 'OLPC' world (especially for OLPA - one laptop per adult).  As the LTE enabled price approaches sub $250, and connectivity to carriers approach $10/month, it's becoming affordable for those who can justify cell access.


     


    If you assume that WiFi will be the more predominant than cell coverage, then the price drops pretty close to $100 in a couple years. (my guess is this years Mini will drop to $250 when the MiniRD is announced, and if the current resolution is maintained then 2012 mini will be sold at $150 in 2014).


     


    Apple believes in Facetime, and well there is Skype, and that becomes the phone app.


     


    While I don't believe that Apple feels it's responsible to put a laptop into everyones hands, I do think it sees the value in it, especially as iTMS becomes more of a profit center.

  • Reply 19 of 52

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post


     


    Nah, disagree.  The way you've worded it here, you're wrong because technically, the iPad can do those things already and always could.  If your meaning is instead that they need to be able to "sideload" content for the iPad to be successful, then I think you're still wrong in that most folks basically don't care too much about that or do it that much.  If you are referring to the users having access to the file system on the device, then you are equally mistaken if you think this is something the average user needs/wants.  


     


    Access to the web so they can see cat videos on this that or the other site is far more important than the ability to save the cat video in question.   


     


    I can't think of much that it on the web that actually *can't* be saved on your iPad one way or another.  All the pictures and documents certainly can.  I can't think of any video sites (except perhaps the flash based ones) that won't play on an iPad and the iPad has native apps for all the major video sites like Vimeo and YouTube.  



    If you want to apply to a job online, and you need to upload your resume... there is not way in hell that Safari can upload Microsoft word documents.

  • Reply 20 of 52
    normmnormm Posts: 645member
    maclancer wrote: »
    If you want to apply to a job online, and you need to upload your resume... there is not way in hell that Safari can upload Microsoft word documents.

    I don't know about Safari, but it's very easy to email your resume from Pages as an MS word document.
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