I was thinking about it and it could very well be but Apple is always cautious so I still don't think they would order this much in advance unless they're pretty sure. Still it has nothing to do with "weaker demand" WSJ claimed.
Unless Apple says something the media is going to draw all sorts of conclusions. The biggest one being of course weak demand. That Android/Samsung are winning, that people want phones with bigger screens, that Apple's software is outdateted, the phone is too expensive, blah blah blah. All the bears will be out tomorrow cutting price targets and proclaiming the death of Apple. :rolleyes:
The reason for the drop in orders is simple. iPhone 5 is a huge disappointment. It was crystal clear from the day it came out to many Apple fans including me but not to Tim Cook. And primarily for this reason, I felt for the first time since 2005 that Apple stock is a SELL and stated so here. Like it or not, ignore it all you want, but we have seen nothing yet. AAPL is heading to $300 because Apple's chief cash cow - iPhone - is not the best smartphone anymore. Consumer Reports confirmed the obvious but only recently. For those few who care to read my musings about the underlying reasons for Apple's recent failures just follow the top link by googling: Apple DNA principles.
Standard disclosure: I have no positions in AAPL stock, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
The reason for the drop in orders is simple. iPhone 5 is a huge disappointment. It was crystal clear from the day it came out to many Apple fans including me but not to Tim Cook. And primarily for this reason, I felt for the first time since 2005 that Apple stock is a SELL and stated so here. Like it or not, ignore it all you want, but we have seen nothing yet. AAPL is heading to $300 because Apple's chief cash cow - iPhone - is not the best smartphone anymore. Consumer Reports confirmed the obvious but only recently. For those few who care to read my musings about the underlying reasons for Apple's recent failures just follow the top link by googling: Apple DNA principles.
Standard disclosure: I have no positions in AAPL stock, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
you have to be absolutly stupid to believe this, otherwise show some facts.
It was the fastest iPhone rollout ever with China launch supposedly ahead of schedule. If they had 100% of expected sales then things would surely have been slower.
Rumours on how difficult it is to make never quite held swathe on this one.
It's the typical naysayer-doomsday Apple news...I say bring it, I want to see Apple go work on something new already. iPhone is a great product line, it's time show the industry how to re-invent something else.
It's going to tank big time.
Even without the iPhone Apple is underrated.
Interesting how this story leaks on Sunday night right in time to impact Monday trading. And right before earnings release. So now we get a week and a half of stories about how Apple is finished if their next phone isn't a carbon copy of Samsung's next phone. :rolleyes:
Or they have new production coming on line from another manufacturer who has not provided information to the media regarding production volumes.
Or Apple did not change anything and this is mis-information whether intentional with a purpose or unintentional.
Or higher than expected yield rates, or would that be lower than expected defect rate? Wasn't there all sorts of news about production problems? If resolved did anyone adjust the overall production to account for this? The folks who made the propellant for the Space Shuttle's Solid Rocket Boosters found out the hard way what happens when you don't adjust your production rate in real time based on demand.
Or... come on guys... we can come up with more wild speculation that is just as plausible as the "analysts" can't we?
Not necessarily. I'd guess Apple has multiple contingency plans for new iPhone models. It could be that Plan A is to introduce a new model on an accelerated schedule, but Plan A depends on a bunch of things working out. Plan B could have been to continue with the iPhone 5 on the "old" schedule, and Apple might have placed orders under the conservative assumption that Plan B would be necessary. Could be that Apple has now determined that Plan A is feasible, so they are cutting the orders necessary to support Plan B.
Another possibility is that the success of the iPad Mini (and iPad 2) has lead to Apple re-evaluating some things. For example, maybe there are quite a few people out there who just don't care about retina screens and would like a reduced price. Might Apple come out with a less expensive iPhone that uses the old 3GS screen, but maybe paired with an A5 or perhaps A6- (ie, an A6 with fewer graphics cores)? If so, that would certainly involve a change in screen orders.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii
But surely if there was a new model coming up (due to a new aggressive update schedule) they would have known that, and simply not ordered as many iPhone 5 parts in the first place, rather than order a year's worth and then cancel half the order.
This article just seems to be a rehash of the last supply cut article last month
The explanation at that time was that the iPhone 5 was much harder to assemble without damage, thus production output was slower, thus incoming parts were beginning to pile up ... so, parts orders had to be slowed down. This would also explain why production would continue over the New Year.
So you're right, a question is, is this just a repeat of last month's news?
Might explain why the 5 is launching among smaller carriers much faster than previous models. I mean who saw Straight Talk offering it? The 4, sure, but the 5?
Getting tired of all the "finally in stock" mentions as well. All the brick and mortar stores in Alaska were fully stocked with all colors and capacities two weeks after launch, so availability wasn't exactly an issue for this product cycle assuming other states had their shit equally together as the frozen North.
Either way, is this really news? Apple is going to post another record quarter, and the brand remains strong. Nuff said.
I have a friend who just got one for his wife and had to go to three stores to find a white one. I got mine mid December and had to check multiple stores for availability so I don't think your Alaskan story is representative of everywhere.
Interesting how this story leaks on Sunday night right in time to impact Monday trading. And right before earnings release. So now we get a week and a half of stories about how Apple is finished if their next phone isn't a carbon copy of Samsung's next phone.
Perfect timing for calls due in a week. The WSJ has released negative Apple stories in past that seem suspiciously timed to earnings reports. I am sure that the SEC will react aggressively by raising their eyebrows for 5 minutes this morning...
Comments
Standard disclosure: I have no positions in AAPL stock, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I'm preparing the shorts right now. Easy money coming today! Everybody, get ready for the plunge!
Quote:
Originally Posted by enature
The reason for the drop in orders is simple. iPhone 5 is a huge disappointment. It was crystal clear from the day it came out to many Apple fans including me but not to Tim Cook. And primarily for this reason, I felt for the first time since 2005 that Apple stock is a SELL and stated so here. Like it or not, ignore it all you want, but we have seen nothing yet. AAPL is heading to $300 because Apple's chief cash cow - iPhone - is not the best smartphone anymore. Consumer Reports confirmed the obvious but only recently. For those few who care to read my musings about the underlying reasons for Apple's recent failures just follow the top link by googling: Apple DNA principles.
Standard disclosure: I have no positions in AAPL stock, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
you have to be absolutly stupid to believe this, otherwise show some facts.
I bet we will end the day at 400$.
If they had 100% of expected sales then things would surely have been slower.
Rumours on how difficult it is to make never quite held swathe on this one.
It's the typical naysayer-doomsday Apple news...I say bring it, I want to see Apple go work on something new already. iPhone is a great product line, it's time show the industry how to re-invent something else.
Typical crap journalism being used to drive the stock price down before earnings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
It's working....stock is down 5% on Frankfurt market.
It's going to tank big time.
Even without the iPhone Apple is underrated.
Yep. That article makes no logical sense. This is manipulation, pure and simple, given the timing of the release. Amazing.
Or they have new production coming on line from another manufacturer who has not provided information to the media regarding production volumes.
Or Apple did not change anything and this is mis-information whether intentional with a purpose or unintentional.
Or higher than expected yield rates, or would that be lower than expected defect rate? Wasn't there all sorts of news about production problems? If resolved did anyone adjust the overall production to account for this? The folks who made the propellant for the Space Shuttle's Solid Rocket Boosters found out the hard way what happens when you don't adjust your production rate in real time based on demand.
Or... come on guys... we can come up with more wild speculation that is just as plausible as the "analysts" can't we?
Not necessarily. I'd guess Apple has multiple contingency plans for new iPhone models. It could be that Plan A is to introduce a new model on an accelerated schedule, but Plan A depends on a bunch of things working out. Plan B could have been to continue with the iPhone 5 on the "old" schedule, and Apple might have placed orders under the conservative assumption that Plan B would be necessary. Could be that Apple has now determined that Plan A is feasible, so they are cutting the orders necessary to support Plan B.
Another possibility is that the success of the iPad Mini (and iPad 2) has lead to Apple re-evaluating some things. For example, maybe there are quite a few people out there who just don't care about retina screens and would like a reduced price. Might Apple come out with a less expensive iPhone that uses the old 3GS screen, but maybe paired with an A5 or perhaps A6- (ie, an A6 with fewer graphics cores)? If so, that would certainly involve a change in screen orders.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii
But surely if there was a new model coming up (due to a new aggressive update schedule) they would have known that, and simply not ordered as many iPhone 5 parts in the first place, rather than order a year's worth and then cancel half the order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775
This article just seems to be a rehash of the last supply cut article last month
The explanation at that time was that the iPhone 5 was much harder to assemble without damage, thus production output was slower, thus incoming parts were beginning to pile up ... so, parts orders had to be slowed down. This would also explain why production would continue over the New Year.
So you're right, a question is, is this just a repeat of last month's news?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Interesting how this story leaks on Sunday night right in time to impact Monday trading. And right before earnings release. So now we get a week and a half of stories about how Apple is finished if their next phone isn't a carbon copy of Samsung's next phone.
Perfect timing for calls due in a week. The WSJ has released negative Apple stories in past that seem suspiciously timed to earnings reports. I am sure that the SEC will react aggressively by raising their eyebrows for 5 minutes this morning...