Perfect timing for calls due in a week. The WSJ has released negative Apple stories in past that seem suspiciously timed to earnings reports. I am sure that the SEC will react aggressively by raising their eyebrows for 5 minutes this morning...
Still amazes me that people claim there's no manipulation going on with this stock. iPhone 5 has only been out for 4 months or so and just recently supply has started to catch up to demand. Yet we're supposed to believe that Apple is cutting component orders due to weak sales? :rolleyes:
Don't be naive. This news are exactly the same as the 2 people lines in China stores. Absurd.
WS has a plan to have the stock just over $500 until end of week, which is the Open Interest for Jan18 options. Furthermore, since there is high interest both in 500 calls and puts (larger in the last one, that's why the price will end over 500), they need to create fear these days in order that the call owners liquidate their positions before opex.
What can be better than news coming from Japan, in a holiday day, without anybody to corroborate the truth of this?
Regarding the numbers: How do you match WS growth estimates (under 10%), when, at the same time, they were estimating a production for Q2/13 that is over a 100% higher than Q2/12 (keep in mind that this news is just about iphone5, you have to add iphone 4S/4 to the figures).
If any, this info should be seen as a good one: the most probable reason for a production cutoff (at those numbers, it means reducing stock of lcd's for following Q's), is that Apple is going to change the screen technology to IGZMO, or update the phone soon. Most probably, of course, is both, erasing the weak Q's in earnings. This means that a growth of at least 20% would be almost assured, without counting the huge demand for ipad mini or an eventual iTV.
Three trading days later of the opex, at Earning day, the pros will "discover" how wrong their estimates were, and the stock will jump impressively. Of course, they will be fully loaded with shares very cheaply bought. These are the same guys that at september planned that they have to unload apple not to be overweighted in their portfolios; that the moment was those months, since an increase in taxes would come; but prior to that, they wrote huge amounts of calls for january leaps. The same ones they now are running worthless. So they sold shares at $700; earned $150-200 in writing calls, and now will load again at $500, to get the same $700 where they started this show in a couple of months, at most.
The thing that irritates me is that Apple itself does nothing to clean this mud. Which is why i'm wondering if this was planned since a long time ago. No surprise then that almost all of the execs sold their stock prior to this.
Still amazes me that people claim there's no manipulation going on with this stock. iPhone 5 has only been out for 4 months or so and just recently supply has started to catch up to demand. Yet we're supposed to believe that Apple is cutting component orders due to weak sales?
I agree this is quite possibly manipulation, and that even if this story isn't, that many others are.
Yet I wonder -- what exactly should the SEC do, if anything, about this kind of stuff? It's one thing for a company, or employees of a company, to say knowingly false things in order to manipulate the stock price for their own advantage -- I think permitting that kind of behavior would undermine the entire market system of allocating capital. But I think there's a case to be made that people who trade stocks based on a story in one of Rupert Murdoch's tabloids deserve what they get.
... and all you a-holes who said people like me were panicking for nothing when we said Apple is falling apart ....
That DOES NOT mean we're saying Apple will fail.
What we are saying is that the Jobsian luster is FINISHED & will never, ever, ever come back.
Look at the VP turnover in a year ....
What, did Steve suddenly become stupid & Forstall was a bad hire?
Look at the MAPS fiasco ....
Steve went apeshit crazy over something as incosequential as "MobileMe": do you think that same person would've allowed something like that to happen?!?
Look at the stock crash in such a short amount of time .... If that were any other company, they'd be well into making funeral arrangements by now.
Look at the products ....
They had to wait until the poor guy was cold before they bought out something he expressly forbade: the iPad Mini.
Apple over-order components?!?
With the "Masters O' Marketing & Supply Chain" Phil & Tim at the helm?!?
Ever since Steve's untimely passing, Apple's been riding on fumes, admit it ....
And if that's your source of fuel, you're not gonna go for very long.
Now, in about a year's time, the fumes themselves've dried up.
Unless there's an iBand, or a blowaway TV, or something IN THE EXTREMELY NEAR FUTURE, Apple will decline -- NOT FAIL, but DECLINE!!!! --
into a post-Steve malaise from which it will never recover.
Can you say "stock manipulation"? Release a report that suggests problems at Apple, buy low, wait for Apple's upcoming quarterly report (which of course, will be good), watch the stock climb again, then sell your stock for a tidy profit. %u2026 Wall Street doing what it does best! There should be an SEC investigation into these obvious scams, but don't hold your breath!
This article is self contradicting. It says "weak demand", this despite it taking Apple from Sept. to mid Dec. to catch up to demand. Mid December would seem to be the peak time to have product available for Xmas. If stock was not available at that time would the article have been about strong demand or a weak supply chain? Ramped production would be in place until supplies caught demand and inventory could be established. At that point the ramped up production could be curtailed. How long the ramped up production would be needed would not be known, the market would tell them eventually. Other rumors indicate a reduced product cycle for updates, suggesting a new model is in the works. A report on Jan. 3 http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1519215 suggests an upgrade to the retina display is in the works. Tim Cook's strength is reported to be supply chain management and several new suppliers and expanded assembly capacity have resulted. If the iPhone 5 takes the place of the iPhone 4S when a new iPhone is released, how many would be needed to fill that role? Could it be half of the demand of a new iPhone 6? According to http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-iphone-6-rumors-indicate-tests-ios-7-new-device-are-under-way-according-developer-logs-988812 , dated Jan. 2, testing of both a new phone and ios are under way. The short time between iPad updates suggest that Apple may be planning to shorten times between updates and grow organically by shortening the time between demand surges experienced at release times. This makes more sense than experiencing lulls due to purchase delays by customers waiting for the next model. Cheaper phones would reduce margins. My money is on faster upgrade cycles, with more profit, not cheaper phones with less. An interview with Schiller of Apple in China http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/01/10/apples-schiller-says-that-despite-the-popularity-of-cheap-smartphones-they-will-not-be-the-future-of-apples-products/ was reported by WSJ as proof Apple was going for cheaper phones. The update in that article now notes that Reuters has withdrawn the piece due to translation errors and the amended translation changed the whole tone. To quote the article "So, at this point it appears that the newspaper may have taken some liberties with its quotes of Schiller%u2019s interview." I guess we may know more after Apple's quarterly report later this month, but I wouldn't bet on it. Secrecy and conservative forecasts are the norm for Apple. It is the media that create the volatility. I find it odd that the only component specified is the Retina Display and vague other components are alluded to. Rumors exist anywhere there is secrecy. Speculation is just that, when the truth is unknown.
Comments
I love this article from The Street: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11811629/1/if-ithe-wsji-is-wrong-about-weak-iphone-5-demand-will-it-apologize-to-apple.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Don't be naive. This news are exactly the same as the 2 people lines in China stores. Absurd.
WS has a plan to have the stock just over $500 until end of week, which is the Open Interest for Jan18 options. Furthermore, since there is high interest both in 500 calls and puts (larger in the last one, that's why the price will end over 500), they need to create fear these days in order that the call owners liquidate their positions before opex.
What can be better than news coming from Japan, in a holiday day, without anybody to corroborate the truth of this?
Regarding the numbers: How do you match WS growth estimates (under 10%), when, at the same time, they were estimating a production for Q2/13 that is over a 100% higher than Q2/12 (keep in mind that this news is just about iphone5, you have to add iphone 4S/4 to the figures).
If any, this info should be seen as a good one: the most probable reason for a production cutoff (at those numbers, it means reducing stock of lcd's for following Q's), is that Apple is going to change the screen technology to IGZMO, or update the phone soon. Most probably, of course, is both, erasing the weak Q's in earnings. This means that a growth of at least 20% would be almost assured, without counting the huge demand for ipad mini or an eventual iTV.
Three trading days later of the opex, at Earning day, the pros will "discover" how wrong their estimates were, and the stock will jump impressively. Of course, they will be fully loaded with shares very cheaply bought. These are the same guys that at september planned that they have to unload apple not to be overweighted in their portfolios; that the moment was those months, since an increase in taxes would come; but prior to that, they wrote huge amounts of calls for january leaps. The same ones they now are running worthless. So they sold shares at $700; earned $150-200 in writing calls, and now will load again at $500, to get the same $700 where they started this show in a couple of months, at most.
The thing that irritates me is that Apple itself does nothing to clean this mud. Which is why i'm wondering if this was planned since a long time ago. No surprise then that almost all of the execs sold their stock prior to this.
All sales drop after christmas. So a decrease in orders makes sense. Now how much and why is what we need to hear on Jan 23.
Just a thought.
en
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Still amazes me that people claim there's no manipulation going on with this stock. iPhone 5 has only been out for 4 months or so and just recently supply has started to catch up to demand. Yet we're supposed to believe that Apple is cutting component orders due to weak sales?
I love this article from The Street: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11811629/1/if-ithe-wsji-is-wrong-about-weak-iphone-5-demand-will-it-apologize-to-apple.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
I agree this is quite possibly manipulation, and that even if this story isn't, that many others are.
Yet I wonder -- what exactly should the SEC do, if anything, about this kind of stuff? It's one thing for a company, or employees of a company, to say knowingly false things in order to manipulate the stock price for their own advantage -- I think permitting that kind of behavior would undermine the entire market system of allocating capital. But I think there's a case to be made that people who trade stocks based on a story in one of Rupert Murdoch's tabloids deserve what they get.
That DOES NOT mean we're saying Apple will fail.
What we are saying is that the Jobsian luster is FINISHED & will never, ever, ever come back.
Look at the VP turnover in a year ....
What, did Steve suddenly become stupid & Forstall was a bad hire?
Look at the MAPS fiasco ....
Steve went apeshit crazy over something as incosequential as "MobileMe": do you think that same person would've allowed something like that to happen?!?
Look at the stock crash in such a short amount of time ....
If that were any other company, they'd be well into making funeral arrangements by now.
Look at the products ....
They had to wait until the poor guy was cold before they bought out something he expressly forbade: the iPad Mini.
Apple over-order components?!?
With the "Masters O' Marketing & Supply Chain" Phil & Tim at the helm?!?
Ever since Steve's untimely passing, Apple's been riding on fumes, admit it ....
And if that's your source of fuel, you're not gonna go for very long.
Now, in about a year's time, the fumes themselves've dried up.
Unless there's an iBand, or a blowaway TV, or something IN THE EXTREMELY NEAR FUTURE, Apple will decline -- NOT FAIL, but DECLINE!!!! --
into a post-Steve malaise from which it will never recover.
The problem is not just Apple cut their supply. It also Samsung already pass 100M units of Galaxy S smart phone.
Even Apply has larger margin per unit, if entire sales goes down profit will shrink.
Also if China deal is done then Apple don't need to cut their supply. Why would they?
China deal is not done.
This sort of thing wouldn't have happened if Steve jobs were still here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610
??
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-reason-apple-cut-its-iphone-5-orders-2013-1
BusinessInsider is at about the same level as DigiTimes as far as credibility goes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilM
BusinessInsider is at about the same level as DigiTimes as far as credibility goes.
Yeah -- the same credibility level as a Rupert Murdoch tabloid.
Just losing the gains it made of recent.
I guarantee the WSJ (and you) are COMPLETELY wrong on this. It's going to be yet another record iPhone sales quarter. Count on it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arrowspark
This sort of thing wouldn't have happened if Steve jobs were still here.
I Hope You're Joking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEMAC1NT0SH
I Hope You're Joking.
I'm half in and half out on this, just because part of the reason Apple is getting even less respect than usual is because Steve is no longer with us.