Rumors of reduced iPhone 5 orders briefly send Apple shares below $500

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 75
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    sacto joe wrote: »
    "The news comes just over a week before Apple is set to announce earnings..." NEWS???, Oh, Please! This is rumor. It is far from "news". And it has one purpose and one purpose only: To sabotage Apple stock just before earnings. It's the worst kind of yellow journalism, and those practicing it are guilty of swindling.

    I'd really like to see the SEC get involved.
  • Reply 22 of 75
    The same bullshit happened last year about iPhone 4S weak demand and Apple cut the parts order . [IMG]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/19072/width/200/height/400[/IMG]
  • Reply 23 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post



    The same bullshit happened last year about iPhone 4S weak demand and Apple cut the parts order .


     


    And this was after Tim Cook had already forecast a record holiday quarter when the numbers were released in October.


     


    After the report that you mention came out the stock went from a high of $422 in October to a low of $363 in November... and then, of course, it quickly rose to $633 in early April due to the, as promised, record numbers announced in January.

  • Reply 24 of 75
    @ jrafosta: Try $131/share in cash and you'd be much closer to the mark. True, it's largely in foreign accounts and won't be returned without a big tax hit, but it's still something like a fourth of the total worth of the stock at this price.
  • Reply 25 of 75
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member


    I had to laugh at the Register headline:


     


     


    Quote:


    Apple 'slashes iPhone 5 screen orders', tight-fisted fanbois blamed




     


    They say that the Japanese Nikkei news service is reporting the same thing as the WSJ.  Wonder if they are just quoting the WSJ or have their own sources.


     


    Quote:


    Overall, iOS-powered phones led in the US in terms of market share but were behind Android mobes in the UK and elsewhere in 2012.


    But sales of the iPhone 5 reached 5 million in the first weekend when it first hit the shelves in nine countries. As of the end of last year, it is now on sale in more than a hundred countries - more than any previous iPhone.




    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/14/iphone_5_screen_order_halved/


     


    The Nikkei article has some stuff that might be affecting the share price:


     


    Quote:


    Samsung has overtaken Apple, helped in part by the popularity of its Galaxy Note II phone-cum-tablet, reinforcing the benefits of offering a wider range of handheld devices at most price points, while Apple rolled out just a single new smartphone last year globally, analysts have said.


    Samsung is expected to increase its smartphone sales by more than a third this year, and widen its lead over Apple, according to researcher Strategy Analytics, which has forecast Samsung will sell 290 million smartphones in 2013 versus iPhone sales of 180 million.


    Kim Sung-in, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul, sees Samsung shipping 320 million smartphones this year and doubling sales of its tablets to 32 million.


    Japan Display's plant in Nomi, southwest Japan, where Apple has invested heavily, is expected to temporarily reduce output by up to 80 percent from October-December levels, the Nikkei reported, while Sharp's dedicated facility for iPhone 5 LCD panels will trim production in January-February by about 40 percent.




    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/us-apple-iphone-demand-idUKBRE90D04B20130114


     


    Personally I think that the tough economic climate in Europe and the US is finally having an impact.  People are simply happy to keep their current phone rather than just upgrading for the sake of it.  On a recent trip I saw lots of people with iPhone 4s and no iPhone 5s.

  • Reply 26 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post



    @ jrafosta: Try $131/share in cash and you'd be much closer to the mark. True, it's largely in foreign accounts and won't be returned without a big tax hit, but it's still something like a fourth of the total worth of the stock at this price.


     


    jragosta is actually correct even though total cash has been announced as being well over $100 billion... but a better financial mind than mine will have to explain net cash - liquid cash - levered cash - etc. because I don't have a clue.

  • Reply 27 of 75


    In late 2011, it was reported Apple reduced component order for iPad and send stock below $400.  We all know now Apple was planing for iPad 3 for 2012


     


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-cuts-ipad-supply-chain-orders-jpmorgan.html

  • Reply 28 of 75
    irelandireland Posts: 17,617member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post


    I had to laugh at the Register headline:


     


     


     


    They say that the Japanese Nikkei news service is reporting the same thing as the WSJ.  Wonder if they are just quoting the WSJ or have their own sources.


     


    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/14/iphone_5_screen_order_halved/


     


    The Nikkei article has some stuff that might be affecting the share price:


     


    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/us-apple-iphone-demand-idUKBRE90D04B20130114


     


    Personally I think that the tough economic climate in Europe and the US is finally having an impact.  People are simply happy to keep their current phone rather than just upgrading for the sake of it.  On a recent trip I saw lots of people with iPhone 4s and no iPhone 5s.



     


    Most people upgrade every 2 years, not every year, and the phones are added onto the bill, not paid outright. So I don't agree without economic judgement there, in this regard. The story is a steaming pile.

  • Reply 29 of 75
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    jragosta is actually correct even though total cash has been announced as being well over $100 billion... but a better financial mind than mine will have to explain net cash - liquid cash - levered cash - etc. because I don't have a clue.

    My figure came from Yahoo:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL
    http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/drawFiling.asp?docKey=136-000119312512444068-6HD3C4H6F5DAU9NM7K4F505QMV&docFormat=HTM&formType=10-K#D411355D10K_HTM_TX411355_2

    Frankly, I agree that their cash number looks too low - even after a couple of dividends. However, I think I have the answer. From Apple's 10K, the $31 per share in cash looks about right. However, they have $92 B in long term securities, so they've apparently converted some of the cash to longer term investments If you include that, the adjusted price per share is just over $400 - or a P/E ratio of around 9. (BTW, that change was long overdue. Apple was earning less than 1% on its cash in the past which is absurd. Presumably, they'll now show a more reasonable return on the cash).

    More interesting is the FORWARD P/E which currently stands at 8.8. After adjusting for cash and long term investments, that's around 7.2. Even if Apple were not going to grow at all and had that profit level for years, that number's far too low. For it to make any sense, the investors would have to be projecting Apple's profit to actually drop by around 50% in the next couple of years - which I don't think ANYONE would expect.

    Again, by any standard, Apple's numbers are unrealistically low. Since such a large percentage of Apple's stock is controlled by institutions (68%, compared to about 12% for all stocks), it is subject to manipulation to help protect institutions against loss from margin trading. That alone is sufficient reason for Apple to consider splitting the stock. Like it or not, individuals are far more likely to trade in a $50 stock than a $500 one.
  • Reply 30 of 75
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member


    deleted

  • Reply 31 of 75
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    cnocbui wrote: »
    Personally I think that the tough economic climate in Europe and the US is finally having an impact.  People are simply happy to keep their current phone rather than just upgrading for the sake of it.  On a recent trip I saw lots of people with iPhone 4s and no iPhone 5s.

    I think it's a combination of factors:

    1. The economy. While there appears to be some improvement in the economy, it's very slow and a lot of people may be settling in for an extended period of stagnation.

    2. Product performance. At some point, a product becomes "good enough" and there's less driving force for upgrades. For example, I believe that this is the biggest thing affecting the PC market. In the 90s, everyone was eagerly awaiting more speed gains because their computer was often the bottleneck - and things like bit rot made things worse. Today, there's little reason why the average user (on either platform) can't get by with a 4 or 5 year old computer.

    3. Gain of discount mobile providers (at least in the US). I used to use AT&T and upgraded every 2 years - whether I really needed to or not. For $100-200, it was worth it since my monthly payment didn't change whether I upgraded or not. Now that I'm using Straight Talk, buying a new phone will cost me $700 or so and I'm not quite so eager to do so. I'll probably hold off until at least the next revision.
  • Reply 32 of 75


    If Apple changed their minds to now go bi-annual with iPhone updates, wouldn't the cut in orders make sense?

  • Reply 33 of 75
    If Apple changed their minds to now go bi-annual with iPhone updates, wouldn't the cut in orders make sense?

    Problem is biannual updates for iPhones makes no sense. Contracts are two years. How many people are going to buy on an off contract schedule?
  • Reply 34 of 75
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,510member
    The WSJ reporter, Juro Osawa, expanded on the article he wrote in this WSJ live interview. Unfortunate his story didn't include the observations that any change in component orders might be due to other factors, nor that the order reductions took place last month (this is old news, not sure why the WSJ is working the angle today).

    http://live.wsj.com/#!3030E9E5-F37D-48AB-B925-B454F4942A62

    If you watch this video, you can see what the WSJ has become under Murdoch, and how shabby "journalism" has become in the Internet age. Lunatic amateurs are in charge, and it's all for adverising—when it isn't for stock manipulation.
  • Reply 35 of 75


    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

    I'd really like to see the SEC get involved.


     


    What would they do?


     


    This is an actual representation of the true value of Apple at any one time¡ There's nothing going on here except standard trading¡

  • Reply 36 of 75
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,154member
    Awesome, something else to rape the stock, as expected. Amazing how Apple's stock is the only one that is negatively impacted by even rumored and unconfirmed 'bad' news, while the stock of other tech companies seem unaffected by confirmed horrible news/dismal sales.
  • Reply 37 of 75


    Well here, willfully spreading false news about  securities on the open market is considered the same as insider trading and punishable by either 1.5 M€ or 10x the amount of potentially illegal gains done on the security (basically 10x the variation of stock times number of shares exchanged) and up to 2 years of jail time.


     


    Is there anything like this in the USA ?


     


    Because this rumor is so unrealistic that i dont see how it could be unintentional !

  • Reply 38 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    These analysts amaze me. What do they expect to happen after a quarter with unprecedented demand of the iPhone 5? There are 2 reasons why the demand grew exponentially.

    1. The recent launch of the iPhone 5

    2. The holiday season.

    A self imposed reduction with then ramping up production if needed is much better than having a overload of iPhones 5 in stock. It would be much fairer to compare this quarter with the same quarter last year instead of the previous one.
  • Reply 39 of 75
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member


    Apple's decided to copy the successful GalaxySIII; so they needed a lower resolution screen that weighed more....image

  • Reply 40 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    jragosta wrote: »
    I think it's a combination of factors:

    1. The economy. While there appears to be some improvement in the economy, it's very slow and a lot of people may be settling in for an extended period of stagnation.

    2. Product performance. At some point, a product becomes "good enough" and there's less driving force for upgrades. For example, I believe that this is the biggest thing affecting the PC market. In the 90s, everyone was eagerly awaiting more speed gains because their computer was often the bottleneck - and things like bit rot made things worse. Today, there's little reason why the average user (on either platform) can't get by with a 4 or 5 year old computer.

    3. Gain of discount mobile providers (at least in the US). I used to use AT&T and upgraded every 2 years - whether I really needed to or not. For $100-200, it was worth it since my monthly payment didn't change whether I upgraded or not. Now that I'm using Straight Talk, buying a new phone will cost me $700 or so and I'm not quite so eager to do so. I'll probably hold off until at least the next revision.

    More carriers are looking into stopping the subsidy. It'll definitely curtail the current levels of smartphones being purchased.
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