Rumors of reduced iPhone 5 orders briefly send Apple shares below $500

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 75
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    plagen wrote: »
    Ok, but why did Google stock drop 2.26% ?

    piot wrote: »
    No. I am not reading anything wrong.
    I repeat. "Last three years"

    And you're missing the point.

    In the past 3 years, sales were flat one year. Down significantly the second year. And up the year that Apple launched a new iPhone in the 2nd quarter. (and, even the year that was flat was misleading because Apple opened up new markets for the iPhone in that quarter with pent-up demand).

    In the two previous years, they were down significantly (which is pretty much standard for every consumer product.

    So, in years that Apple didn't release a new product, or open a product to new markets, sales were down every time - just like virtually every consumer product in the world.

    Logically, then, since Apple isn't expected to introduce a new product, a decline in sales is what would be expected.
  • Reply 62 of 75
    nhtnht Posts: 4,487member


    $486...mmm...

  • Reply 63 of 75


    The market reached a high.  Google reached a high, and Apple reached a high a while back.  Let's see, investors are in it to make money.  Buy low, wait till stock rises, sell high, rinse repeat.  Apple made alot of people alot of money, so alot of people sold for profit.  I don't know what you people don't understand. 


     


    Stock movements and prices are often based on expectations vs reality.  If Apple is expected to sell 65 million iPhones in a quarter and only sells 50 million, investors will sell, even if 50 million is a huge year on year increase....

     

  • Reply 64 of 75


    By the way, Dell has been up quite a bit, as has RIM.  You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers... 

     

  • Reply 65 of 75


    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

    By the way, Dell has been up quite a bit, as has RIM.  You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers... 


     


    When we make jokes like this, we tend to use quotation marks, the sarcasm punctuation or "/s". 




    Take your pick.

  • Reply 66 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    When we make jokes like this, we tend to use quotation marks, the sarcasm punctuation or "/s". 




    Take your pick.



     


    You mean how RIM has doubled their share price since September?  That's no joke...  Or how Dell is up 50% since November, and 15% in the last 2 days? 

  • Reply 67 of 75


    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

    You mean how RIM has doubled their share price since September?  That's no joke...  Or how Dell is up 50% since November, and 15% in the last 2 days? 


     


    So you honestly think that either of these companies are good buys. Dell, which is going private, and RIM, which has no product, no plans, and no future. Really?


     



     


    Yeah, they doubled their share price, all right. From ~0 to ~2x0.


     


    If you're doing some insider trading, I can see being able to take advantage of day-long boosts to stock, but otherwise those two gravy trains are being dumped into the sea.

  • Reply 68 of 75


    horrible lie intended to manipulate the stock to be lower. Likely a hedge investors' plot. Or someone that wants to buy really low Or competitor. We need that ER on jan. 23 to show everyone. I say; thanks to the mini ipad; there should be huge sales growth.

  • Reply 69 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    So you honestly think that either of these companies are good buys. Dell, which is going private, and RIM, which has no product, no plans, and no future. Really?


     



     


    Yeah, they doubled their share price, all right. From ~0 to ~2x0.


     


    If you're doing some insider trading, I can see being able to take advantage of day-long boosts to stock, but otherwise those two gravy trains are being dumped into the sea.



     


    Dell was obviously a buy a few months ago.  RIM I did buy a few months ago, then dumped.  No I don't think either have a future.  But that's not the point. 

  • Reply 70 of 75



    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

    No I don't think either have a future.  But that's not the point. 





    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

    You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future


     


    So what IS the point?






    adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers



     


    Because this sounds exactly like what you're trying to get people to do.


     


    "They don't have a future, so jump on the bandwagon now and make a little on this temporary windfall."

  • Reply 71 of 75
    mikeb85mikeb85 Posts: 506member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post




     


     


    So what IS the point?


     


    Because this sounds exactly like what you're trying to get people to do.


     


    "They don't have a future, so jump on the bandwagon now and make a little on this temporary windfall."





    The point is to think about valuation, and how current valuation reflects past and expected performance, and how the stock price moves according to expectations relative to valuation. 


     


    Nokia went down to 2 dollars because everyone expected them to go bankrupt.  Which they may or may not.  Apple was once in this position too.  Lumia sales are better than expected (expectations were very low).  Now people are thinking that maybe Nokia does have a future.  Hence the share price rise recently. 


     


    Research in Motion was also expected to go bankrupt.  Preliminary reports are that the BB10 experience is not only better than expected, but perhaps on par with Android and Apple, and carriers are going to be pushing them.  Hence the share price double. 


     


    When Apple was nearly bankrupt, started their recovery, and starting introducing new products, it was much the same situation.  And no doubt people who bought Apple at 20 made a hell of a lot more money than those who bought at 300, 400, 700, etc...  And I'm sure all the PC crowd were telling those Apple investors that they're throwing away their money at a has-been who had no future. 


     


    Investing is not about what's hot right now (Apple, Google).  It's about identifying situations where the valuation is such that there is more potential to make money than to lose money.


     


    If you want to become more sophisticated, you also need to look at what we call 'technical' indicators.  Thinks like RSI, SMA, EMA, and a slew of other statistical indicators that track buying/selling.  These don't give the whole picture, but they increase your understanding of the basic supply/demand dynamics of the stock market. 


     


    If you're in it for profit, then it's all about maximizing your percentage gains over a specific time period.  In which case you need to look for compelling risk/reward scenarios, and analyze the market and various indicators to find a good time to buy in, then sell at a good time.  I'm not a daytrader, but I've pulled in 5+% in a lucky day trade, and routinely can make 5-20% in a few weeks on a trade.  I'm not perfect, I lose too, but I win more. 


     


    Anyhow, with regards to Apple, momentum is against them right now, I'd hold until earnings, and depending on valuation leading up to earnings, possibly make a bet beforehand.  Whether or not you agree with Apple's current stock price movement, there are rational reasons to explain it, without the usual cry of manipulation and rumours... 

  • Reply 72 of 75


    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post


    …carriers are going to be pushing them.



     


    Good luck with that at this point.





    It's about identifying situations where the valuation is such that there is more potential to make money than to lose money.



     


    Yes, which is why I'm still absolutely baffled at your backing of these two companies.





    Whether or not you agree with Apple's current stock price movement, there are rational reasons to explain it, without the usual cry of manipulation and rumours... 



     


    Sure (my apprehension at that should be palpable).

  • Reply 73 of 75
    mikeb85mikeb85 Posts: 506member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    Yes, which is why I'm still absolutely baffled at your backing of these two companies.


     


     



     


    You don't seem to understand that buying a stock does not have anything to do with backing a company. 


     


    There are some investment banks who specialize in buying bankrupt companies, simply because they can buy those companies' assets for less than they are worth, since the market value is so depressed.  Think of badly performing companies and their stock in those terms. 


     


    Maybe a more simple example.  Let's say I want to buy a restaurant.  I can buy a successful restaurant for 1 million that does a million in sales every year, or I can buy a failing restaurant for 30 thousand.  If I can turn around that failing restaurant into something that does 1 million in sales, then when I sell it, I'm making alot more money than I would have made buying the successful restaurant.  The risk is increased, but the reward is greatly increased, and if you know how to navigate those risky waters, you'll make alot more money.  And something restaurant specific - the restaurant business is tough.  A 10% drop in the value of the successful restaurant is a bigger loss than the failure of the poor one in my example...


     


    Anyhow, maybe you should take a finance course or something one of these days, or try to expand your understanding of investing.  Company success does not equal share price increase. 

  • Reply 74 of 75


    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

    You don't seem to understand that buying a stock does not have anything to do with backing a company. 


     


    Just short-term windfalls and earnings. Either you buy a stock to hang onto it for long-term gains, "backing the company", or you buy a stock because it's going to make you money in the short-term, meaning "bandwagon".


     


    If you're into it for the pickup after bankruptcy, do share holdings often translate favorably to amounts of stock of whatever more successful company picked it up? Genuine lack of knowledge here. 


     


    Do you really think that any amount of money can save RIM? Money can't buy ideas.






    Company success does not equal share price increase. 





    Amen. Apple's working proof of that.

  • Reply 75 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    Just short-term windfalls and earnings. Either you buy a stock to hang onto it for long-term gains, "backing the company", or you buy a stock because it's going to make you money in the short-term, meaning "bandwagon".


     


    If you're into it for the pickup after bankruptcy, do share holdings often translate favorably to amounts of stock of whatever more successful company picked it up? Genuine lack of knowledge here. 


     


    Do you really think that any amount of money can save RIM? Money can't buy ideas.



     


    "Bandwagon" investing is basically employing a momentum strategy without the good sense to sell when the market moves against your trade.  In other words, investing in a hot stock merely because it's hot, without understanding why. 


     


    Short term investing is "trading", has nothing to do with what specific strategy you employ.  I've personally been successful with both contrarian and momentum strategies, my ideal timeline is 1 week to 6 months. 


     


    Buying into bankrupt companies can net you some significant earnings, but unless it's something you know well, can be very risky.  I don't do it, but used it to illustrate a point. 


     


    As for RIM, you're right in that no amount of money can translate into ideas.  If anyone thinks RIM has a future, it's because they still have a large user base, great enterprise tools, and they still do some things very well.  I think RIM still has some great ideas left in them, but I also think alot of their issues were related to misunderstanding what the casual user wanted.  These days I no longer have money in them (I was happy with my short-term trade), as I'm happier with my other investments. 


     


    I also notice Apple is up 4% today.  Just the market being the market, I guess sub 500 is a nice price for alot of traders.  Anyhow, I know you're a big Apple fan, I wouldn't worry about Apple's future, but as an investor, there are more enticing stocks out there. 

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