Analyst: Apple shipped 52 million iPhones in Q4 to buoy quarterly earnings
Contrary to rumors of significant shortfalls, Apple will post positive results for the fourth quarter of 2012 as strong iOS device shipments more than made up for iPad mini and iMac supply chain issues, one market analyst says.
In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider on Tuesday, the well-connected Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities expects Apple to post good fourth quarter earnings despite worries sparked by recent rumblings of iPhone shipment cuts. In fact, the analyst believes that Apple's handset will be one of the few product lines to beat consensus.
Kuo estimates Apple's "main products," like the iPhone and iPad, saw quarter-to-quarter shipments rise over the last three months of 2012, but warns that shipments of specific devices within those lines may fall short of expectations.
iPhone shipments have been center stage over the past week after Apple reportedly made significant cuts to parts suppliers in December. Despite the rumors, Kuo cites supply chain checks and says Apple shipped 52 million units during quarter four to be up 93 percent quarter-on-quarter and up 41 percent year-to-year.
A breakdown by model shows shipments of the newest iPhone 5 hitting more than 35 million units for the fourth quarter, which is a 3.5 percent negative adjustment to Kuo's previous forecast of 36.5 million. Fourth quarter shipments of the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 followed far behind at 9.5 million and 7.3 million, respectively.
Overall, Apple is expected to have moved over 140 million smartphones in 2012, led by strong iPhone 4S shipments of some 74 million units during the first half of the year.
As for the iPad, Kuo's forecast comes in at 23 million units shipped for the three-month period ending in December, or a 49 percent increase from the same time last year. The fourth-generation iPad will come in with 9.3 million shipped units while the newly introduced iPad mini will see 8.2 million shipments. Kuo notes the estimates are down slightly from previous forecasts due to poor demand for the full-size iPad and supply chain issues with the smaller version of Apple's popular tablet. Most significant, says Kuo, was a bottleneck at AU Optronic, one of the iPad mini's main LCD panel suppliers.
Looking ahead, Apple's supply chain woes are expected to stabilize in the first quarter of 2013. Year-to-year iOS shipment growth is pegged at 6.5 percent for the iPhone and 64 percent for the iPad, accounting for over 37 million and 19.4 million units, respectively.
Regarding Apple's MacBook shipments for the last quarter of 2012, Kuo estimates the total will be near 3.9 million units, up only 7 percent from the year ago quarter. The analyst cites a surprisingly low interest in the 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display, saying the slow adoption is mostly due to an unattractive pricing model. If Apple lowers the price by improving panel yields, or substitutes pricey solid state drives with hard drives, shipments are likely to rise.
Apple's newly designed iMacs were lauded by reviewers across the Web, but shipments were down 18 percent from three months prior and over 46.5 percent year-over-year. Most of the blame is attributed to shipment delays which were exacerbated by a depletion of iMac channel inventory in the third quarter as Apple prepared to rollout the all-in-one's new design. A huge contributor to the problem was the 27-inch version which didn't start shipping in earnest until January. Combined Mac shipments are estimated to have hit 4.75 million units for the fourth quarter to reach a 2012 total of just over 17.7 million.
Despite "flattish" demand, shipments of both Mac portables and desktops are forecast to grow year-to-year as iMac inventory grows, bringing Apple's totoal computer shipments up to more than 4.5 million for the first quarter of 2013.
Kuo maintains a conservative position on Apple for the near term on poor new product shipments, poor product mix, weak gross margin and the upcoming lull usually seen in the first quarter of a calendar year.
Apple is set to reveal details regarding fourth quarter shipments during the company's quarterly conference call scheduled for Jan. 23.
In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider on Tuesday, the well-connected Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities expects Apple to post good fourth quarter earnings despite worries sparked by recent rumblings of iPhone shipment cuts. In fact, the analyst believes that Apple's handset will be one of the few product lines to beat consensus.
Kuo estimates Apple's "main products," like the iPhone and iPad, saw quarter-to-quarter shipments rise over the last three months of 2012, but warns that shipments of specific devices within those lines may fall short of expectations.
iPhone shipments have been center stage over the past week after Apple reportedly made significant cuts to parts suppliers in December. Despite the rumors, Kuo cites supply chain checks and says Apple shipped 52 million units during quarter four to be up 93 percent quarter-on-quarter and up 41 percent year-to-year.
A breakdown by model shows shipments of the newest iPhone 5 hitting more than 35 million units for the fourth quarter, which is a 3.5 percent negative adjustment to Kuo's previous forecast of 36.5 million. Fourth quarter shipments of the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 followed far behind at 9.5 million and 7.3 million, respectively.
Overall, Apple is expected to have moved over 140 million smartphones in 2012, led by strong iPhone 4S shipments of some 74 million units during the first half of the year.
As for the iPad, Kuo's forecast comes in at 23 million units shipped for the three-month period ending in December, or a 49 percent increase from the same time last year. The fourth-generation iPad will come in with 9.3 million shipped units while the newly introduced iPad mini will see 8.2 million shipments. Kuo notes the estimates are down slightly from previous forecasts due to poor demand for the full-size iPad and supply chain issues with the smaller version of Apple's popular tablet. Most significant, says Kuo, was a bottleneck at AU Optronic, one of the iPad mini's main LCD panel suppliers.
Looking ahead, Apple's supply chain woes are expected to stabilize in the first quarter of 2013. Year-to-year iOS shipment growth is pegged at 6.5 percent for the iPhone and 64 percent for the iPad, accounting for over 37 million and 19.4 million units, respectively.
Regarding Apple's MacBook shipments for the last quarter of 2012, Kuo estimates the total will be near 3.9 million units, up only 7 percent from the year ago quarter. The analyst cites a surprisingly low interest in the 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display, saying the slow adoption is mostly due to an unattractive pricing model. If Apple lowers the price by improving panel yields, or substitutes pricey solid state drives with hard drives, shipments are likely to rise.
Apple's newly designed iMacs were lauded by reviewers across the Web, but shipments were down 18 percent from three months prior and over 46.5 percent year-over-year. Most of the blame is attributed to shipment delays which were exacerbated by a depletion of iMac channel inventory in the third quarter as Apple prepared to rollout the all-in-one's new design. A huge contributor to the problem was the 27-inch version which didn't start shipping in earnest until January. Combined Mac shipments are estimated to have hit 4.75 million units for the fourth quarter to reach a 2012 total of just over 17.7 million.
Despite "flattish" demand, shipments of both Mac portables and desktops are forecast to grow year-to-year as iMac inventory grows, bringing Apple's totoal computer shipments up to more than 4.5 million for the first quarter of 2013.
Kuo maintains a conservative position on Apple for the near term on poor new product shipments, poor product mix, weak gross margin and the upcoming lull usually seen in the first quarter of a calendar year.
Apple is set to reveal details regarding fourth quarter shipments during the company's quarterly conference call scheduled for Jan. 23.
Comments
Apple post record numbers quarter after quarter, year after year and yet these same "Analysts" are consistently surprised and wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Amhran
Analysts.......
I hate how AppleInsider has worded this article making these numbers sound factual. These numbers are from yet another analyst...
We won't know the truth till next week.
128GB SSD Fusion is fine for the average consumer as it will give them an impression of something fast. This will be OK in the future when external thunderbolt SSDs are more affordable but the separate SSD plus HDD option should not have been eliminated yet.
"But… buoy? They… they cut orders of iPhones… so no one is buying them…"
Ian Malcolm: That is one big pile of 'lysts…
Originally Posted by AnalogJack
Not surprised to hear iMac sales down, this would be solely due to no option for decent HDD and SDD…
Absolutely ludicrous. It's because they weren't on sale for an entire month! For heaven's sake.
No and no.
More than that. The 21.5" went on sale November 30th, right? That's 2 months without it and none of the older iMac were on sale since they announced the new models. The 27" shipped weeks later. You may have gotten lucky in the stores right before Xmas but if you wanted any BTO options you had to wait. The 27" pretty quickly said it ships in January during the part of December it was available. Those sales aren't counted until the money is taken from your account, which is when it's prepared for shipping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
No and no.
I tingle with anticipation at your reasoning
Quote:
Absolutely ludicrous. It's because they weren't on sale for an entire month! For heaven's sake.
I was perusing a very long thread on the whirlpool forums recently for fun, it was speculation on those waiting form the just about to be released 2012 imac, the thread was started in February, so it was amusing to go through it with hindsight. Most people were salivating at the prospect at the HDD SDD upgrade options. They were eagerly waiting and holding off because the imac was listed as 'don't buy, imminent update' on macrumors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnalogJack
Not surprised to hear iMac sales down, this would be solely due to no option for decent HDD and SDD as many were expecting compared to SATAII 256 SSD with 2TB HDD from 2011 imacs.
128GB SSD Fusion is fine for the average consumer as it will give them an impression of something fast. This will be OK in the future when external thunderbolt SSDs are more affordable but the separate SSD plus HDD option should not have been eliminated yet.
It's more of a supply issue than a demand issue. If you look on their web site, 21.5inch models are about a week wait and the 27 inch models are about 3-4 week wait. That means they can't keep up with demand. It's better to be in a position where you can't build them fast enough than have too much inventory with no one buying them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
More than that. The 21.5" went on sale November 30th, right? That's 2 months without it and none of the older iMac were on sale since they announced the new models.
If you recall back in September or so, there was a rumor that Apple was having trouble with the new display process. It's likely their original intention was to be ready to ship right after that event. It would have been late relative to desktop cpu availability, but it would have been significantly earlier than it really shipped. As far as shipping extra phones, aside from their own stores, they aren't going to ship more than what is ordered. I guess orders could be more aggressive with a new model, in which case you wouldn't really see the effects until the next quarter with orders slowing down due to existing channel inventory. The only thing that really annoys me with analyst speculation is that they don't always cite information used to draw such conclusions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
"But… buoy? They… they cut orders of iPhones… so no one is buying them…"
Ian Malcolm: That is one big pile of 'lysts…
Absolutely ludicrous. It's because they weren't on sale for an entire month! For heaven's sake.
I think they over estimated in the first place because the intitial demand was insane. Once we find out how many they REALLY shipped last quarter, then we can figure out what they are scheduled to ship this quarter. I take these rumors with a grain of salt, some prove to be a certain degree of BS. Give a journalist a tablespoon of truth and they'll create a gallon of BS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnalogJack
Not surprised to hear iMac sales down, this would be solely due to no option for decent HDD and SDD as many were expecting compared to SATAII 256 SSD with 2TB HDD from 2011 imacs.
128GB SSD Fusion is fine for the average consumer as it will give them an impression of something fast. This will be OK in the future when external thunderbolt SSDs are more affordable but the separate SSD plus HDD option should not have been eliminated yet.
It's more of a supply issue than a demand issue. If you look on their web site, 21.5inch models are about a week wait and the 27 inch models are about 3-4 week wait. That means they can't keep up with demand. It's better to be in a position where you can't build them fast enough than have too much inventory with no one buying them.
Its by no means as simple as you pretend. It depends on the REASON why you can't build them fast enough to meet demand. If this arises from supply issues relating to components, or assembly-line issues, or end-control problems, then its a big bad thing. If you CHOSE to limit supply for whatever reason, then that is a completely different matter. Supply chain problems are a bitch because there may be no simple solutions, which would raise the spectre of needing to re-design, to change suppliers or whatever. Similarly, it the thing can't be assembled because of difficulties meeting tolerance requirements, then you have a problem. Seems that this was in fact an initial issue with the I5 and Foxconn. So meeting demand is not as simplistic as you imply. From what we hear TC is a master of this art.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
blah
I'd rather see "SEC launches enquiry on analysts manipulating prices"
Android has a billion activations a day, and the Galaxy S3 is the most popular phone in the Universe...yet the iPhone is always the best selling phone on all carriers.
The only potential bad news there is the low iPad demand - for the 4, and the low growth next Q in iPhone shipments yoy.
China Mobile will, or could have, changed all that. I think the 50% cuts were true, but applied to this Q ( Jan 13) not the last. Now they are on to sell 37-40M iPhones rather than 50-60 M. They must have assumed a China Mobile deal with really high subsidies, hopefully that happens sooner rather than later.
Once that happens Apple can continue to grow it's high end, but it also needs a low end entry iPhone.
You wouldn't need to be all tingly if you had kept up with some basic Apple-related news (or use search).
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/10/25Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.html
Originally Posted by AnalogJack
They were eagerly waiting and holding off because the imac was listed as 'don't buy, imminent update' on macrumors.
Talk about uninformed consumers. I wish they'd take down their buyer's guide.