Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer, pushing stock back toward $700

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
With 2013 off to a tough start for Apple stock, one analyst attempted to ease investor concerns on Friday, noting that comparisons to a strong 2012 will begin to ease as the year goes on.

A year ago, the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 shared common components, helping to boost Apple's gross margins, Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities said in a note to investors on Friday. Along with a record setting launch of the iPhone 4S in the 2011 December quarter, he believes it could make for a tough comparison for Apple for the start of the year.

But Um sees Apple's difficult 2012 comparisons easing as the year goes on. He expects that Apple's next iPhone, the so-called "iPhone 5S," will share design similarities to the current iPhone 5, helping to improve margins.

Wells Fargo


Because of that, Apple's current "black ice," as Um put it, is predicted to "thaw through summer." He sees easier comparisons to 2012 along with improving gross margins, which could improve sentiment among investors.

"While this requires some patience as the cycle transitions and then matures to drive gross margin, we believe valuation will rise with sentiment," Um said.

"While there seems to be some concern around competition and diminishing demand, had some operators not been as restrictive on upgrades relative to past new product launches, Apple would have experienced an even stronger launch, making what we expect to be a record setting December even more impressive."

Wells Fargo Securities has a projected valuation range for AAPL stock from $680 to $730. That's a wider range than their previous forecast of $710 to $730.

For the December quarter, Um expects Apple sold 48 million iPhone units, with about three quarters of those being the new iPhone 5. And iPad sales are projected to be 20.2 million, with about half of them being the iPad mini, dropping the average selling price to $450.

His revenue estimate of $53 billion is below consensus of $54.7 billion, while his earnings per share forecast of $13.67 is above the Street's $13.41.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 67


    I'll stick with listening to the $1,111 prediction instead.

  • Reply 2 of 67


    "Black ice" ?


     


    *rolleyes*


     


     


    FFS...


     


    Just get to the quarterly report already. 

  • Reply 3 of 67
    Apple will report eps of $15.24 .
  • Reply 4 of 67
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member

    "While this requires some patience as the cycle transitions and then matures to drive gross margin, we believe valuation will rise with sentiment," Um said.

    profound observation
  • Reply 5 of 67
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I'll stick with listening to the $1,111 prediction instead.

    Screw that¡ I'm predicting Apple will share price will be 1,111,111 making it the first quadrillion* dollar company.


    * Billiard for you Europeans.


    edit: It's come to my attention that people don't readily know how to scale values past a billion or trillion. It's easy. You start with million than change to bi for the 2nd range, then tri for the 3rd range, then quadrillion, quintillion, sextillion, septillion, octillion, nonillion, and decillion. I think it's pretty straightforward.
  • Reply 6 of 67


    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

    * Billiard for you Europeans.


     


    Oh gosh, people actually still USE those terms? I thought they showed up in charts for the benefit of the last living generation and for historic purposes… 


     


    It's like how they changed "larboard" to "port"; you'd think someone would have noticed a problem in those names a long time ago. I guess they did—that's why we have the modern names—but still.

  • Reply 7 of 67


    So this is it? All this guy's got is "Soft Kitty"?

  • Reply 8 of 67
    Analysts and so-called experts don't even know what they want from Apple. And even if Apple does release or do whatever that they want or expect, they still would not be happy. So I say, "Meh!"
  • Reply 9 of 67
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Oh gosh, people actually still USE those terms? I thought they showed up in charts for the benefit of the last living generation and for historic purposes… 

    It's like how they changed "larboard" to "port"; you'd think someone would have noticed a problem in those names a long time ago. I guess they did—that's why we have the modern names—but still.

    I'm not quite sure. The Americans and Europeans each have their own reasons for holding onto things that are antiquated. I didn't want to assume that we're all on the same page.

    pscooter63 wrote: »
    So this is it? All this guy's got is "Soft Kitty"?

    This?

    [VIDEO]
    (link)
  • Reply 10 of 67
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,390member


    Then there's this. Hmmm....


     


    Google advises today that *ahem* analyst projections are probably too high?


    http://investor.google.com/releases/2013/0118.html

  • Reply 11 of 67


    Meanwhile, Wall Street somehow pins Apples price on todays option expiry date right below $500. Not exactly a glide path, but neatly done.


     


    I get the sentiment manipulation with the articles in the press, but I don't get how they steer the price in cases like this. Naturally, I don't touch options ...

  • Reply 12 of 67
    Thanks Maynard, but you're really not helping.
  • Reply 13 of 67
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,729member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    With 2013 off to a tough start for Apple....


    Yeah, real tough. I'm hurting for you Apple. Plummeting sales, layoffs, take-over talk, selling off of assets, lack of innovation, customer defections... oh wait, that's Nokia... errr... RIM ....


     


    image

  • Reply 14 of 67
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member


    Now I'm no analyst of course, but as these people are merely guessing and pulling numbers out of their asses, and their guesses are based on whatever available limited and faulty data that they can get their hands on, wouldn't it have been a smart thing to at least wait until Wednesday's earnings, until they open up their fat mouths again and then they can continue to come out with their wild speculations?


     


    Why bother to make a prediction a few days before Apple releases the real deal and real numbers, when everybody can get a much clearer picture of how Apple is doing?


     


    I am so damn tired of these analyst morons by now. Most are completely useless, and the SEC should be investigating certain ones, as some of them belong in a cold and dark jail cell, IMO.


     


    And what's with the black ice? It sounds like something that Al Sharpton should protest against.

  • Reply 15 of 67


    I still think this anti/pro apple 'info' campaign is to lock prices into a narrow band that will profit the big money in the market.  After next Wednesday's call, anticipate a major trend up in price.... my guess is those in the know, know that, and they want to maximize profits now by increasing the uncertainty prior to the facts being announced.


     


    In short, All the p*ssies will be out of the market by today, Big money will move in, ride the wave back up to $700.  I see shades of 2008/9 (Aug 8 AAPL was 176. on January 16th 2009, it was 82. By Sept 2009 it 'DOUBLED' to 195, and pretty much rode that value line  through to 704 last year.


     


    As bad as everything is... we still aren't even near a 52 week low. (419 - Jan 19, 2012)

  • Reply 16 of 67
    sensisensi Posts: 346member
    Whatever, I choose to believe the AI resident share pusher TCM's Brian White, my completely consensual target is actually $2.000+ a share in the next 12 months, he has no financial interest deceiving me nor AI editors have one quoting him weekly, It even looks like some 'investment banks" share his insight in headlines lately, so I think I will just buy.
  • Reply 17 of 67


    Yet another analyst talking out of his arse.


     


    "Black ice"?  LOL!

  • Reply 18 of 67

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    And what's with the black ice? It sounds like something that Al Sharpton should protest against.



    If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 


     


    Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  

  • Reply 19 of 67


    Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer


     


    Otherwise known as...


     


    The analysts worthless / FUD rumours & speculation to play down the AAPL share price in the market will cease for the time being, so those that bought up lots of shares at the lower price can sell at a high & make a killing again.

  • Reply 20 of 67
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 

    Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  

    It's also my rapper name. Represent!
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