Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem.
Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem.
They halted Google's last quarter didn't they? That was a different situation with the early numbers release but I still don't know why they halted GOOG's then.
Well... I'm disappointed. I was over-confident given the Verizon numbers and a sense of growth in China. I am excited about the iPad number though.
Doesn't look like Apple will be above $600 any time soon... but I don't worry that they won't be back above $500 shortly. I guess you have to have a capitulation for things to turn around...
Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem.
Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem.
And when the stock was flying high because of Wall-Street's overly optimistic expectations, who was complaining then?
They halted Google's last quarter didn't they? That was a different situation with the early numbers release but I still don't know why they halted GOOG's then.
Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.
because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.
So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480
Uh uh.... I am somewhat puzzled that you say bought a 'straddle' when a straddle (look it up) requires the same exercise price on the call and the put. Indeed, with 'nominal' movements, straddles lose money. They pay off when there are fairly sizable movements relative to exercise price.
Are you sure that you know what you're talking about? Everyone gets lucky once in a while, but I think you're trying to convince us you're also skilled. I am a bit suspicious of the latter, that's all.
Add: I notice that stelligent caught you out on that before I did. But I'll let my post be....
You know, I wish that this website wouldn't just blindly copy and paste the bullshit interpretations and nauseating media narrative using descriptive terms such as 'flat', 'miss', 'dissapointing', etc. Every single other website and techblog on the internet does it, and I used to think that AppleInsider had higher standards, but not anymore. Lately, its just been a constant vomit of the garbage that is crossposted everywhere. What the ratio of negative:positive articles about Apple on this site lately, like 10:1?
Apple just made revenues of $56,000,000,000 in a single quarter, the best quarter in their history (as usual). That's 11 zeroes. They just sold 47,800,000 iPhones. 22,000,000 iPads. 75,000,000 iOS devices. These numbers are alot of things (ie. stunning), but 'flat' and 'dissapointing' and 'misses' aren't those things.
Let's have some fucking context and perspective here. Apple had a mind-blowing quarter, and just because they didn't hit some random, round number than some jackasses (analysts) who are always wrong about everything, dredged up randomly from their asses and decided that number was important, that doesn't decrease the merit of Apple's results. Maybe, on some other planet in some other universe there's a company that is performing better, but on this planet, no such other company exists. The original iPhone took a few months to sell a million, which was considered a great success. Now, 48 million in a quarter is dissapointing, even with a shitload of competition. My, how spoiled and cynical we've become
Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.
I just just asking a more complete question that I believed the other person was alluding to. Rogifan was seeking an answer that you replied to and didn't give. I didn't know that early release of information last quarter was different than Google's official release.
EDIT: Looking it up GOOG's share trades were halted when they had dropped 10%. Apple is hovering around that right now. Just a coincidence.
Apple was over valued. No company could maintain the growth that Apple had in the last few years... Period...
Over valued? By what rational measure?
The most common measure of stock value is P/E. Even before this 'correction', Apple's forward, cash-adjusted P/E was in the low 7 range while the average stock was almost 3 times that. By that standard, Apple's profits would have to drop by 67% just to get the P/E back to market levels - which would assume that Apple would grow at market rates.
WIth Apple's recent growth history, the stock should have been trading at a multiple HIGHER than the market as a whole - so it was already grossly undervalued.
And when the stock was flying high because of Wall-Street's overly optimistic expectations, who was complaining then?
When was the stock flying high? In terms of P/E, I can't remember a time when Apple's P/E was greater than the market average - so it has never been overvalued, at least by that measure.
Comments
Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem.
Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
At what point would they halt trading?
Hahahahahahaha
They halted Google's last quarter didn't they? That was a different situation with the early numbers release but I still don't know why they halted GOOG's then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Really.
And we should believe you because you told us this is what you were planning to do, or are you just having a wet dream?
No,
because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.
So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480
Doesn't look like Apple will be above $600 any time soon... but I don't worry that they won't be back above $500 shortly. I guess you have to have a capitulation for things to turn around...
I detailed some of that on page 2 of this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blitz1
No,
because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.
So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480
Calls at $530 and puts at $480?
That's not a straddle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610
Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem.
Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem.
And when the stock was flying high because of Wall-Street's overly optimistic expectations, who was complaining then?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
I detailed some of that on page 2 of this thread.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155594/apple-earnings-come-in-flat-at-13-1b-on-sales-of-47-8m-iphones-22-9m-ipads-and-4-1m-macs/40#post_2263387
Cool. Sorry, mate. I didn't see it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent
Cool. Sorry, mate. I didn't see it.
Bore repeating, it keeps getting overlooked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent
Calls at $530 and puts at $480?
That's not a straddle.
Sorry if I have the wrong term.
Was pretty sure about it though.
Well, I won't mind tomorrow
Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.
No worries. So much data from so many sources we can't possibly see it all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blitz1
No,
because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.
So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480
Uh uh.... I am somewhat puzzled that you say bought a 'straddle' when a straddle (look it up) requires the same exercise price on the call and the put. Indeed, with 'nominal' movements, straddles lose money. They pay off when there are fairly sizable movements relative to exercise price.
Are you sure that you know what you're talking about? Everyone gets lucky once in a while, but I think you're trying to convince us you're also skilled. I am a bit suspicious of the latter, that's all.
Add: I notice that stelligent caught you out on that before I did. But I'll let my post be....
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent
Calls at $530 and puts at $480?
That's not a straddle.
No, but Apple's stock has a long history of large moves after earnings... It almost always moves 5%+
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
But Google and Amazon aren't overvalued? Pfffft
Those two stocks had not grown that much in such a short period of time.... Big difference...
You know, I wish that this website wouldn't just blindly copy and paste the bullshit interpretations and nauseating media narrative using descriptive terms such as 'flat', 'miss', 'dissapointing', etc. Every single other website and techblog on the internet does it, and I used to think that AppleInsider had higher standards, but not anymore. Lately, its just been a constant vomit of the garbage that is crossposted everywhere. What the ratio of negative:positive articles about Apple on this site lately, like 10:1?
Apple just made revenues of $56,000,000,000 in a single quarter, the best quarter in their history (as usual). That's 11 zeroes. They just sold 47,800,000 iPhones. 22,000,000 iPads. 75,000,000 iOS devices. These numbers are alot of things (ie. stunning), but 'flat' and 'dissapointing' and 'misses' aren't those things.
Let's have some fucking context and perspective here. Apple had a mind-blowing quarter, and just because they didn't hit some random, round number than some jackasses (analysts) who are always wrong about everything, dredged up randomly from their asses and decided that number was important, that doesn't decrease the merit of Apple's results. Maybe, on some other planet in some other universe there's a company that is performing better, but on this planet, no such other company exists. The original iPhone took a few months to sell a million, which was considered a great success. Now, 48 million in a quarter is dissapointing, even with a shitload of competition. My, how spoiled and cynical we've become
LOL. The call just ended, and the bumper music was The Temptations:
"I know you wanna leave me but I refuse to let you go..."
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger
Those two stocks had not grown that much in such a short period of time.... Big difference...
It is meaningless to judge stock price growth independently of earnings and free cash flow growth.
How does AAPL compare on that dimension with AMZN and GOOG?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.
I just just asking a more complete question that I believed the other person was alluding to. Rogifan was seeking an answer that you replied to and didn't give. I didn't know that early release of information last quarter was different than Google's official release.
EDIT: Looking it up GOOG's share trades were halted when they had dropped 10%. Apple is hovering around that right now. Just a coincidence.
Over valued? By what rational measure?
The most common measure of stock value is P/E. Even before this 'correction', Apple's forward, cash-adjusted P/E was in the low 7 range while the average stock was almost 3 times that. By that standard, Apple's profits would have to drop by 67% just to get the P/E back to market levels - which would assume that Apple would grow at market rates.
WIth Apple's recent growth history, the stock should have been trading at a multiple HIGHER than the market as a whole - so it was already grossly undervalued.
When was the stock flying high? In terms of P/E, I can't remember a time when Apple's P/E was greater than the market average - so it has never been overvalued, at least by that measure.