Huge selloff by hedge funds bruised Apple stock in the winter quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Disclosure documents filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission clarify that Apple's falling stock price over the winter quarter was tied to the widespread selloff of over a million shares by just seven large hedge funds.

AAPL stock


After reaching an all time high of $704 on September 21, shares in Apple tumbled downward more than 24 percent, hitting a low at the end of 2012 at $509. After some recovery in the new year, shares fell again after the company announced record earnings, hitting a 52 week low of $435.

Panic or planned?

While observers like to attribute the dramatic drop to a "loss of faith by investors," the actual catalyst is now known to be a more calculated, rational act by a few hedge fund managers with very large holdings.

A noted in a report by Reuters, hedge funds' quarterly disclosure forms filed with the SEC reveal a series of massive, billion dollar liquidations during the quarter.

Puzzlingly, however, even the report itself described Apple's stock drop as coinciding with voiced "concerns about increasing competition and declining profit margins" and offered the explanation "the shares also may have dropped because their price rose too much, too fast."

"Three months from now, we'll be seeing a lot of the people who sold starting to pick it up again."An unconnected thought presented later in the report notes that "despite the plunge in Apple's stock price, most of the managers likely exited their positions with substantial profits because they bought years earlier."

It also cited Justin Walters, the co-founder of Wall Street research firm Bespoke Investment Group, as saying, "three months from now, we'll be seeing a lot of the people who sold starting to pick it up again."

Four funds that sold 796,000 shares worth

The report outlined that Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors fund "dumped its entire stake of more than 266,000 shares during the fourth quarter."

Eric Mindich of Eton Park Capital Management dumped all its shares in Apple in the fourth quarter; it held 250,000 shares at the beginning of that quarter.

Thomas Steyer of Farallon Capital sold 137,000 shares, while Barry Rosenstein's Jana Partners "unloaded its entire Apple stake of more than 143,000 shares."

Next to a stock photo of a rotting Apple, Julia La Roche of Business Insider claimed that the four hedge funds' liquidation of Apple "is significant because the tech giant's stock is normally a hedge fund favorite."

Following the brilliant adage "buy low, sell high," any stock is probably going to be more of a "hedge fund favorite" before pumping the stock up and then liquidating it, compared to the period of decline following said liquidation.

At least two of the hedge funds began accumulating Apple's stock in early 2010, when shares were around $250, providing them with a return approaching 250% or more on those shares, if they were sold near the peak.

Other hedge funds trimmed some shares

The report ends by noting that three other hedge funds trimmed their holdings in Apple in the fourth quarter, but retained 73 to 82 percent of their holdings.

These include Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, which retained 643,000 shares after selling 18 percent of his firms holdings; Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management, which sold 19 percent of its holdings but ended the year with a portfolio including over 1 million shares of Apple and Julian Robertson's Tiger Management LLC fund, which cut 28 percent of its Apple stake, ending with 42,000 shares.

These three firms therefore sold off around 390,000 shares, while retaining more than 1,685,000, more than twice as many shares as those liquidated by the four firms that abandoned their entire positions.

In total, these seven firms reported sales of more than million shares, about 1 percent of Apple's total. If sold near Apple's peak, the sales would have resulted in the shift of $7 billion in capital. Those shares are currently priced at around $4.6 billion.

The shockwaves generated by those sales helped deflate Apple's market cap from a high above $650 billion to today's $438 billion.

Correlation is not causation

Last fall, Seth Fiegerman jumped on this massive stock price shift caused by hedge fund profit taking, to suggest that Apple's valuation drop was actually caused by the "cursed" release of iPhone 5.

The phone has since become the most popular model ever, taking top sales records in Japan and helping Apple take the majority of smartphone sales in the US.

With Apple's shares currently hovering around $466, all six of the firms are now free to buy back shares at about two thirds the price they commanded at their peak last September, and won't have to disclose the purchases until a month and a half after the current quarter ends.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 33
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    See it not all bad, but selling at the high and forcing the drop and then buying back in when they force it low makes them lots of money, How many of these same funds also shorted the stock the the same time. It becomes a self fulfilling Prophecy.
  • Reply 2 of 33
    rob53rob53 Posts: 3,309member
    So the tanking was pure and simple profit taking with these funds reaping huge profits while almost destroying AAPL. Any collusion involved in the sell off or was it purely coincidental? Of course, now that it's at a bargain basement price, these same funds will probably buy it again, pump it up, take profits and destroy the stock a second (and third, and fourth) time. This is not the way to run the financial market and allowing it is not the way to run the country or the world. AAPL was not too high, just look at its pitiful P/E.
  • Reply 3 of 33


    The tyranny of the metrics. The funds needed to show overall high returns and how better to juice your averages but by selling the winners? Bummer for small investors who have their emotions tied up in watching the ups and downs but if you're a buy and hold investor you're not going to go wrong by sticking with the winners.

  • Reply 4 of 33
    Re rob53: they did not "almost destroy AAPL", selling at a 52-week high is good business practice for any investor. In all likelihood, the trades were executed automatically through previously-set Sell Limit Orders. Plus, many if not all investment funds sell off their best performers at the end of the year to maximize profits, finalize taxes, etc. The only question now is how long it will take the stock to return to its previous level (Intel-Apple iTV, anyone ;)
  • Reply 5 of 33
    This is the dumbest thing I've ever read. Apple bought back twice as much as these firms sold and the price still tanked. Plus the stock trades close to 20 million shares a day...every day. Selling 1 million shares over a quarter would barely be noticeable. Idiot reporting for empty heads.
  • Reply 6 of 33

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post



    This is the dumbest thing I've ever read. Apple bought back twice as much as these firms sold and the price still tanked. Plus the stock trades close to 20 million shares a day...every day. Selling 1 million shares over a quarter would barely be noticeable. Idiot reporting for empty heads.


    EXACTLY as you said it.  In a calendar quarter AAPL will do a total volume of 1.9 billion (90 days at 21M shares per day)...and they are calling out 1 million shares being dumped in a quarter?  That's ridiculous analysis.  


     


    Even if you took out that 1 million shares from the market cap at $0/share you would knock AAPL's market cap down by about 0.1%...


     


    The real answer is the broader market (institutional and retail) started selling off AAPL for a variety of reasons.  Whether it is priced appropriately today, should be back at $700+, or lower still, is anyone's guess.  

  • Reply 7 of 33
    Okay, so you're confused by that? Consider this, On one hand you have funds selling 1 million shares and this article insinuates that's why apple tanked. Yet, appl trades about 20 million shares a day. Is it possible that suddenly everyone started selling, sure it is. Why, the media helped change sediment when appl missed its analysts expectations. Then the media began scaring everyone by touting the increased tax situation which contributed to more selling. Then the media, think wsj here, falsely printed an article about iPhone 5 production cuts. Then the media started writing about poor iPhone sales in china. The media also made a big hoopla about maps. Are you starting to get the picture? Once these hedge funds decided to sell they can easily influence the media which in turn influences the markets. It was a perfect storm of events that really enriched the short sellers. Now, once it settles down & dependent upon their next earnings report apple will either recover or tank. If you own a lot of shares like I do you had better buy a protective put before the upcoming April earnings report. The upside is huge, but the downside if they miss again will be equally ugly.
  • Reply 8 of 33

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wubbus View Post


    EXACTLY as you said it.  In a calendar quarter AAPL will do a total volume of 1.9 billion (90 days at 21M shares per day)...and they are calling out 1 million shares being dumped in a quarter?  That's ridiculous analysis.  


     


    Even if you took out that 1 million shares from the market cap at $0/share you would knock AAPL's market cap down by about 0.1%...


     


    The real answer is the broader market (institutional and retail) started selling off AAPL for a variety of reasons.  Whether it is priced appropriately today, should be back at $700+, or lower still, is anyone's guess.  



     


    Thanks.  I'm so used to getting trolled for every comment I expected some kind of attack.  I figured it would sell off as people rushed to lock in the lower capital gains tax, but also thought it would recover once 2013 rolled around.  Of course the outlook for next quarter put an end to that hope.


     


    Anyhow, thanks and good luck with your investments.

  • Reply 9 of 33


    Agreed, this is stupid.  The average daily volume is over 21MM shares/day.  To think that the numbers presented in the article made any difference over a couple of months time is ridiculous.

  • Reply 10 of 33

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rob53 View Post



    So the tanking was pure and simple profit taking with these funds reaping huge profits while almost destroying AAPL. Any collusion involved in the sell off or was it purely coincidental? Of course, now that it's at a bargain basement price, these same funds will probably buy it again, pump it up, take profits and destroy the stock a second (and third, and fourth) time. This is not the way to run the financial market and allowing it is not the way to run the country or the world. AAPL was not too high, just look at its pitiful P/E.


     


    "Almost destroying APPL" LOL!!! Seriously!??? Are you forgetting how much profit Apple rakes in every quarter consistently? Correction "record profits". No hedge fund will ever destroy Apple.

  • Reply 11 of 33
    But, 1M shares is a huge sell-off if done quickly, warping the price. Especially with robotic trading, a huge drop in price orchestrated by hedge funds would mean that those trying to sell for more would be able to only if they would meet the lowered prices. It's a mob psychology, "run on the bank" activity, not rational -- likely also the explanation for Apple's price being driven up so quickly. Investors sell/buy based on technical considerations not based on evaluation of a company's fundamentals.

    Think of this sell off as a market correction, since the $700 price point was probably too steep as it was.
  • Reply 12 of 33
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    ... Investors sell/buy based on technical considerations not based on evaluation of a company's fundamentals.
    ...

    I think what you are describing are traders, rather than investors.
  • Reply 13 of 33
    hedge funds control the stock they are trying to get it as low as they can to buy in then it rushing to the top for a quick sell.. oldest trick in the game
  • Reply 14 of 33


    Can anyone say "Fiscal Cliff"?


     


    If you were an investor who had acquired a large number of shares when Apple stock was at a lower price, and you were concerned that there maybe an increase in taxes on capital gains, selling off your Apple stock and taking your profits before the end of 2012 makes a lot of sense.

  • Reply 15 of 33
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member


    Sad thing is the story is being picked up by news outlets that should know better.  Reuters and Forbes  to be specific.

  • Reply 16 of 33
    A million shares? Who the hell cares?
  • Reply 17 of 33
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    wubbus wrote: »
    EXACTLY as you said it.  In a calendar quarter AAPL will do a total volume of 1.9 billion (90 days at 21M shares per day)...and they are calling out 1 million shares being dumped in a quarter?  That's ridiculous analysis.  

    Even if you took out that 1 million shares from the market cap at $0/share you would knock AAPL's market cap down by about 0.1%...

    The real answer is the broader market (institutional and retail) started selling off AAPL for a variety of reasons.  Whether it is priced appropriately today, should be back at $700+, or lower still, is anyone's guess.  

    It's not that simple. There's a lot of psychology involved.

    For example, when word gets out that a firm that owned a quarter million shares dumped them all at once, other people are going to look hard. Even a single downgrade can have a significant impact on a company's price.
  • Reply 18 of 33

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GadgetCanada View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rob53 View Post



    So the tanking was pure and simple profit taking with these funds reaping huge profits while almost destroying AAPL. Any collusion involved in the sell off or was it purely coincidental? Of course, now that it's at a bargain basement price, these same funds will probably buy it again, pump it up, take profits and destroy the stock a second (and third, and fourth) time. This is not the way to run the financial market and allowing it is not the way to run the country or the world. AAPL was not too high, just look at its pitiful P/E.


     


    "Almost destroying APPL" LOL!!! Seriously!??? Are you forgetting how much profit Apple rakes in every quarter consistently? Correction "record profits". No hedge fund will ever destroy Apple.



     


    Well... he did say destroy "AAPL", not destroy "Apple".


    if it's in the interest of Wall st MMs to destroy a stock (or pump one up), they can do so. Corporate profits be damned.

  • Reply 19 of 33

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post



    See it not all bad, but selling at the high and forcing the drop and then buying back in when they force it low makes them lots of money, How many of these same funds also shorted the stock the the same time. It becomes a self fulfilling Prophecy.




    If these funds really sold at the peak, then $AAPL would not have fallen so much. They made a very nice profit even at the "depressed" price near end of 2012 and early 2013 because they bought the shares some time ago at a price much lower than $460.

  • Reply 20 of 33


    We don't need to stinking SEC report! Some of has been yelling through our guy that it is all the hedge fund managers who has been spoiling the real value of one great company! 

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