BlackBerry 10 predicted to hold less than 5% market share through 2016

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
While BlackBerry's CEO this week called Apple's iOS platform outdated, it's the BlackBerry 10 operating system that's expected to have very little effect on the smartphone industry for the coming years.

A new prediction by research firm Gartner projects that BlackBerry 10 will hold less than 5 percent of the overall worldwide smartphone market through 2016. The firm sees the Canadian smartphone maker having an "extremely difficult" time taking on the current options of Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows Phone 8.

BlackBerry 10


Enterprises are faced with the question of how to determine user demand and address bring-your-own-device support at their companies, and BlackBerry users must also determine whether to upgrade the BlackBerry Enterprise Service. But Gartner sees three "key impacts" that it believes businesses should consider.

The first recommendation is that enterprises should trial BlackBerry 10 and familiarize themselves with the fledgling platform before deciding to adopt. The firm acknowledged that it will be a "daunting" challenge for BlackBerry to excite users about its new platform.

Gartner also believes that current market conditions will make it extremely difficult for BlackBerry to compete with iOS, Android, or even Windows Phone. As such, businesses are advised to wait and see how BlackBerry 10 plays out in the consumer market, which will likely determine the long-term viability of the platform.

Finally, it was also noted that BlackBerry has not opened its management application programming interface to support popular master data management tools. Currently, the only option for BlackBerry 10 devices is BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10, and Gartner believes BlackBerry should work to support alternative MDM tools by opening up additional MDM APIs.

Thorsten Heins, the CEO of BlackBerry, made headlines this week when he declared he believes Apple's iOS platform, which powers the iPhone and iPad, is outdated. He said competing platforms, such as BlackBerry 10, have surpassed Apple, which he believes has failed to innovate much with the iOS user interface since 2007.

"History repeats itself again, I guess," the BlackBerry CEO said. "The rate of innovation is so high in our industry that if you don't innovate at that speed you can be replaced pretty quickly. The user interface on the iPhone, with all due respect for what this invention was all about, is now five years old."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 38
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    1) Wasn't Gartner also predicting WinMo would see huge rises YoY after the iPhone arrived?

    2) I think we're at the event horizon for BB. I'm not even sure they will be in the smartphone market in 2016.
  • Reply 2 of 38
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    3 year predictions for the smartphone market are always wrong. There are too many 'unknown unknowns' - future disruptive technologies, market trends and new players - to make an educated prediction on where the market is going.
  • Reply 3 of 38
    pedromartinspedromartins Posts: 1,333member


    So what? If they manage to target those 5% very well, they can have a much healthier business than everyone (besides Apple).


    I mean, look at the Mac side of things. It's worth more than PCs from all OEMs combined.


     


    I would like to see a healthy Blackberry in 2016.


     


    I'm full of these morons that think that market share is the only thing that matters, even when all OEMs besides one are losing money (Android and soon, Windows).

  • Reply 4 of 38
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,133member


    I played with the new BB and I have to admit that it was really really nice. Is it better than my iPhone? No. But it certainly bridges the massive chasm that used to exist.


     


    iOS does look outdated and in many ways is a bit of a mess, hopefully with Jonny Ive now in charge we will get a consistent UI rather than the mix that Forstall left behind.

  • Reply 5 of 38
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,155member


    When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.

  • Reply 6 of 38
    lkrupp wrote: »
    When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.

    Actually, he said 1%.
  • Reply 7 of 38
    rabbit_coachrabbit_coach Posts: 1,114member
    If BB really want's to stay in the smartphone business, I am pretty sure, they are already working on the Z11 as we are speaking. It's the same misconception as many AI- "trolls" have about Apple. They all assume R&D in these companies stop working once they release a new product.
    But reality is, that they have to start working on the successor product even before the release of the actual product. That's how healthy companies work.
    I have never had a Z10 in my hands, but what I saw from different reviews made me believe, that BB has finally accomplished to bring an actual player in to the game. Particularly of course for companies and organizations with the need of high security systems.

    My prediction is, that they might jump over the 5% hurdle.
  • Reply 8 of 38
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    1) Wasn't Gartner also predicting WinMo would see huge rises YoY after the iPhone arrived?

    2) I think we're at the event horizon for BB. I'm not even sure they will be in the smartphone market in 2016.

    There are still many companies that will still use them because of their security, which is still tops in the business. Kinda like GM, no matter how many crap cars they make they will always sell hordes to local, state and federal agencies.
  • Reply 9 of 38
    Enough with the 'predictions' please.

    Blackberry was 'predicted' to go out of business in 2012.

    BB10 was 'predicted' to be DOA.

    Now another bozo analcyst is making another lame 'prediction'.

    Let's leave the predictions to fortune tellers and stop printing this garbage.
  • Reply 10 of 38


    "Apple's market share is bigger than BMW's or Mercedes's or Porsche's in the automotive market. What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes?" - Steve Jobs


     


    I believe Apple had about a 4-5% share of the computing market at the time he said that.


     


    I wouldn't discount BlackBerry just yet. There are still a ton of corporate types that love them and if you go to Indonesia or India all you see are BlackBerry ads. They are about three years too late to the party with a decent touch platform that could have prevented their massive loss of market share in other markets. They now should be able to compete head on with the likes of Samsung/Android/Windows Phone (where they are most like to draw market share away from). The question is whether or not developers will embrace the platform. At least they've made it easy for Android developers to port. Haven't held a Z10 yet so can't speak to the hardware. Mossberg gave them an ok review.


     


    I think BlackBerry's best chance is if they license the OS to other vendors like HTC who don't really have an allegiances. I figure Windows Phone will be dead in a couple of years and Google will have decided the way forward for them is to finally leverage the Motorola mobility purchase and no longer support other vendors. That'll leave Samsung and Nokia (if Nokia still exists) trying to figure out what to do next. Nokia may jump to BlackBerry and Samsung will probably try out their Tizen approach and fail spectacularly. It's shaping up as quite a battle with Apple laughing from the sidelines.

  • Reply 11 of 38
    pedromartinspedromartins Posts: 1,333member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by otterfish View Post


    "Apple's market share is bigger than BMW's or Mercedes's or Porsche's in the automotive market. What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes?" - Steve Jobs


     


    I believe Apple had about a 4-5% share of the computing market at the time he said that.


     


    I wouldn't discount BlackBerry just yet. There are still a ton of corporate types that love them and if you go to Indonesia or India all you see are BlackBerry ads. They are about three years too late to the party with a decent touch platform that could have prevented their massive loss of market share in other markets. They now should be able to compete head on with the likes of Samsung/Android/Windows Phone (where they are most like to draw market share away from). The question is whether or not developers will embrace the platform. At least they've made it easy for Android developers to port. Haven't held a Z10 yet so can't speak to the hardware. Mossberg gave them an ok review.


     


    I think BlackBerry's best chance is if they license the OS to other vendors like HTC who don't really have an allegiances. I figure Windows Phone will be dead in a couple of years and Google will have decided the way forward for them is to finally leverage the Motorola mobility purchase and no longer support other vendors. That'll leave Samsung and Nokia (if Nokia still exists) trying to figure out what to do next. Nokia may jump to BlackBerry and Samsung will probably try out their Tizen approach and fail spectacularly. It's shaping up as quite a battle with Apple laughing from the sidelines.



    HTC should be doing great, their devices are so awesome.


     


    Maybe Apple could help them, by licensing iTunes (for example)?


    A strong HTC means weaker Samsung(and possible android forks) and more fragmented Android. Apple would still earn money.


    They can do the same for blackberry, in exchange of something related to security?

  • Reply 12 of 38

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    HTC should be doing great, their devices are so awesome.


     


    Maybe Apple could help them, by licensing iTunes (for example)?


    A strong HTC means weaker Samsung(and possible android forks) and more fragmented Android. Apple would still earn money.


    They can do the same for blackberry, in exchange of something related to security?



    I'd really like to see HTC have a good year. I think they could start really pumping out some nice phones. Assuming they fix their battery issues (from my experience), I had the HTC Inspire for a short time and almost always had to charge multiple times a day.

  • Reply 13 of 38
    All good comments....

    I agree MS Windows phones are DOA, but MS can't get out of the mobile phone market. It's just too big a market. Especially with the dismal state of the PC market.

    I agree apps are important, but as most of us know on this site, it's the ecosystem that Apple has built that is a huge advantage over its competition. The integration between, mail, iLife, iWork, iTunes, iPhone, iPads, laptops and iMacs is huge! It just can't be replicated using an Android phone and a MS PC/tablet with a mish-mash of free google apps and third party windows based SW.

    And there is Apple's build quality!
  • Reply 14 of 38
    All good comments....

    I agree MS Windows phones are DOA, but MS can't get out of the mobile phone market. It's just too big a market. Especially with the dismal state of the PC market.

    I agree apps are important, but as most of us know on this site, it's the ecosystem that Apple has built that is a huge advantage over its competition. The integration between, mail, iLife, iWork, iTunes, iPhone, iPads, laptops and iMacs is huge! It just can't be replicated using an Android phone and a MS PC/tablet with a mish-mash of free google apps and third party windows based SW.

    And there is Apple's build quality!
  • Reply 15 of 38
    All good comments....

    I agree MS Windows phones are DOA, but MS can't get out of the mobile phone market. It's just too big a market. Especially with the dismal state of the PC market.

    I agree apps are important, but as most of us know on this site, it's the ecosystem that Apple has built that is a huge advantage over its competition. The integration between, mail, iLife, iWork, iTunes, iPhone, iPads, laptops and iMacs is huge! It just can't be replicated using an Android phone and a MS PC/tablet with a mish-mash of free google apps and third party windows based SW.

    And there is Apple's build quality!
  • Reply 16 of 38


    No one goes down in a straight line. Just the matter of time and Blackberry goes bankrupt!  Only way to get saved is to snatch up the market share from Samdung!

  • Reply 17 of 38
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


    When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.





    I think he said 1%.


     


    Anyway, market changes are way too fast and furious. Predicting the market is like predicting the weather 3 years out. Or even 2 weeks out.


     


    It's all psychology and the views of people. Look how much the shine has come off Apple since Steve has left. Hiring Browett. Then hiring this Adobe character? Confidence in Apple is way down.

  • Reply 18 of 38


    5 percent of the market may not be much for the big phone makers but BlackBerry is happy to get something. The pre-ordering is continuing strong. . http://t.co/Obwnx6s3Kd.

  • Reply 19 of 38
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    There are still many companies that will still use them because of their security, which is still tops in the business. Kinda like GM, no matter how many crap cars they make they will always sell hordes to local, state and federal agencies.

    For their sake I hope you're right, but the British government — if I'm remembering it correctly — has already turned down the BB10 OS for security issues.


    edit: That is correct but there is also an update that shows BB still has a chance to make good: http://www.engadget.com/2013/03/20/blackberry-10-not-secure-enough-for-uk-government-workers/
  • Reply 20 of 38


    As a admirer of Apple and purchaser of their products....I think Apple is in danger of being in the same place BB was a few years back.  Their OS is five plus years old and there is not much more innovation that can be produced through it. Stagnation seems to be setting in. 


     


    I am impressed with the reports about BlackBerry's purchase of QNX....a software platform that is microkernel based and so powerful, secure, and reliable that NASA, nuclear power plants, utilities, cars, trains, and major industries depend upon it daily for their critical operations.  The QNX platform is the foundation that BB can innovate its way back to credibility if managed properly.  


     


    I think it is exciting to see BB trying to pioneer Machine 2 Machine communications via their new OS.  QNX OS is used by 60% of the car industry and is amazing technology used by high end car manufacturers...Mercedes, Porsche, Bentley, Audi, etc. BB has a vision of their mobile computer powering and facilitating communications between all types of electronic devices including TV's, Radios, Appliances, Security Systems, Homes, Auto's, Gaming Consoles, etc.  This type of technology can make traditional laptops and desktops extinct in the near future.  I really am interested to see how this technology will be advanced in the next few years.  

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