Thats a 35% Q2Q decline. Last year Verizon sold 3.2 million iphones in the quarter, so it’s a 25% yoy increase. BUT they also sold more Smartphone’s than last year so the iphone yoy increase is to take in a context where more Smartphone’s were sold.
If we extrapolate the 35% Q2Q decline to Q1 total numbers we get 31 million iphones for Q2. Last year Apple sold 35 million iphones in Q2 2012, so this would be a 11% YoY decline.
I think we will see YoY EPS decline next week, which is expected. If we take into account the smartphone and tablet markets are growing, this means Apple is on the decline. This is not a surprise to me giving the fact that iOS is lagging in innovation and that the iphone and ipad no longer have an edge over competition.
Ex-cash P/E of under 5x now, approaching 1/2 of the broad market and the lowest valued large tech company, even lower than some of the PC names, which means the markets think the 'E' is way too overstated and that indeed earnings will see large declines from here. I'll have to go back a little further, but I think we are at the lowest valuation Apple has ever traded for on that metric as being a public company. Ladies and gentleman I give you what Tim Cook can deliver....effectively the most hated company on wall street.
Well, either Apple is an iFraud, or this is being set up to let people who missed out on the run up to 700 have another shot at it. Fascinating to watch the market at work.
Thats a 35% Q2Q decline. Last year Verizon sold 3.2 million iphones in the quarter, so it’s a 25% yoy increase. BUT they also sold more Smartphone’s than last year so the iphone yoy increase is to take in a context where more Smartphone’s were sold.
If we extrapolate the 35% Q2Q decline to Q1 total numbers we get 31 million iphones for Q2. Last year Apple sold 35 million iphones in Q2 2012, so this would be a 11% YoY decline.
I think we will see YoY EPS decline next week, which is expected. If we take into account the smartphone and tablet markets are growing, this means Apple is on the decline. This is not a surprise to me giving the fact that iOS is lagging in innovation and that the iphone and ipad no longer have an edge over competition.
Is this bad math 101? Why not extrapolate the 25% YoY growth to compare similar quarters as well as take into account additional carriers the iPhone is on to increase unit sales? Basically, your method is beyond bad.
Verizon activated 7.2 million smartphones in the quarter according to the article. AI says 4 million of those were iPhones, with roughly half being 4G iPhone 5's. Verizon also reportedly said according to AI that of the 7.2M smartphone activations 5.9M were 4G LTE phones. That only leaves 1.3M total non-4G phones activated during the quarter across all OS's, Android, Blackberry MS and iOS. Yet the AI article surmises that 2 million older 3G iPhones alone were sold which wouldn't be possible (half of the 4 million iPhones activated).
Something doesn't add up unless I've misunderstood.
What you missed is 5.9 million LTE devices and not phones. Big difference. Numbers add up. Note: AI did not include devices sold.
"Of the 7.2 million smartphones activated in the quarter, 5.9 million of those were 4G LTE devices.
Maybe AI was reporting correctly what Verizon said?
If you look at the chart, Verizon activated 26.3m 4G LTEs in Q1'13 compared to 21.6m in Q4'12 i.e. a dif. = 4.7m
i.e. Verizon activated a total 4.7m 4G LTEs this quarter, of which 2m were iPhone 5s i.e. 42.6% of all 4G LTE phones
However the key fact is that Verizon activated a total of 25% more iPhones this year compared to the same period last year i.e. 4m in Q1'13 compared 3.2m in Q1'12.
Apple also INCREASED their market share of all Verizon smartphones from 51.6% of 6.2m smartphones activated in Q1'12 to 55.55% in Q1'13.
This means that non-iPhone smartphones share of Verizon activations declined YonY from 48.4% to 44.45%
This was despite the fact, as other have pointed out, that Verizon was promoting and pushing everything else but iPhones, which shows the iPhones amazing brand strength.
It is also worth noting that iPhones beat Kantar's estimates. They estimated that iPhones took 51.6% of Verizon activations, whereas iPhone actually took nearly 4% more share.
Kantar also estimated Windows took 4.1% share of Verizon activations, RIM 0.5% and other 0.2%. So ite appears that Apple may have taken this additional 4% share mostly from Android, which market share has dropped to less than 40%.
Ex-cash P/E of under 5x now, approaching 1/2 of the broad market and the lowest valued large tech company, even lower than some of the PC names, which means the markets think the 'E' is way too overstated and that indeed earnings will see large declines from here. I'll have to go back a little further, but I think we are at the lowest valuation Apple has ever traded for on that metric as being a public company. Ladies and gentleman I give you what Tim Cook can deliver....effectively the most hated company on wall street.
I see you continue to lie and make up data. It seems it is all you have left. Back when Jobs ran the company and Apple was a 5 billion market cap company, its PE minus cash position was... Let's say interesting.
Laughable. The really important number isn't the totally predictable drop in Q to Q sales, but the unknown number sold for Chinese New Year. Nice try though, lttle troll....
Last year Apple started selling the 4s in China in january. This time they started in december. China numbers are going to be worst than last year. This will contribube even more to the yoy decline. Unless there is a new market in 2013 we didnt had in 2012, this is not looking good.
That being said, I am looking at this trading at 395 right now and its getting pretty cheap *IF* Apple can come up with decent product cycles in the second half of 2013. The problem is I am starting to lose faith in Apple capacity to innovate to a level of wow factor.
Is this bad math 101? Why not extrapolate the 25% YoY growth to compare similar quarters as well as take into account additional carriers the iPhone is on to increase unit sales? Basically, your method is beyond bad.
Because I consider the Q2Q decline to be more accurate for global sales then the Verizon YoY rise because VZ is taking market shares in the carrier business in the US. Look at the numbers next week, if they are near 31 millions I was right if they are near 40 millions you are.
With 7.2 million total smartphones activated in Verizon's first fiscal quarter, the iPhone accounted for more than half, with 4 million total Apple handsets activated in the three-month span.
Because I consider the Q2Q decline to be more accurate for global sales then the Verizon YoY rise because VZ is taking market shares in the carrier business in the US. Look at the numbers next week, if they are near 31 millions I was right if they are near 40 millions you are.
So in other words, really bad assumptions IMO. I find it odd you see a 25% YoY growth (iPhone to iPhone) and +4% YoY gain on Verizon (from 51% to 55% of smartphones) as a bad thing leading to a 11% decline in YoY sales.
I think you will be disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I think Apple will come up with a bigger screen phone, but it will not be until it releases the next redesign. APple will not ignore the reality that many people prefer larger screens. Many people seem to use the phone as a general computer replacement.
More people prefer the smaller screened iPhone, more people prefer smaller screened (cheaper) Android phones.
I dont know about others but Apple has until october 2013 to come out with a bigger screen. At that date I need to change my phone and it will be a "phablet".
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
I think you will be disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I think Apple will come up with a bigger screen phone, but it will not be until it releases the next redesign. APple will not ignore the reality that many people prefer larger screens. Many people seem to use the phone as a general computer replacement.
Given the plentitude of leaks, etc. about a cheaper iPhone and a dearth about a larger one, I'm guessing TBell is right.
Which could leave me buying a used older iPhone outright and holding on (or possibly a big used Android to sample the experience) and an iPad mini to tide over to '014.
Comments
Ah! That makes sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE
The 5.9M 4G LTE are devices (tablets, mobile hotspot.. etc) not smartphone only.
Then AI is reporting wrong? From the article:
"Of the 7.2 million smartphones activated in the quarter, 5.9 million of those were 4G LTE devices.
The stock will surely tank to under $200 a share.
Please, oh please, make this be true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
Then AI is reporting wrong? From the article:
"Of the 7.2 million smartphones activated in the quarter, 5.9 million of those were 4G LTE devices.
Come on.. We're talking about AI here. Don't expect everything stated to be 100% accurate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
It's likely most of those remaining 3.2 million couldn't care about a 5" display either.
agreed. large android phones sell so well because there are no decent small android phones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Thats a 35% Q2Q decline. Last year Verizon sold 3.2 million iphones in the quarter, so it’s a 25% yoy increase. BUT they also sold more Smartphone’s than last year so the iphone yoy increase is to take in a context where more Smartphone’s were sold.
If we extrapolate the 35% Q2Q decline to Q1 total numbers we get 31 million iphones for Q2. Last year Apple sold 35 million iphones in Q2 2012, so this would be a 11% YoY decline.
I think we will see YoY EPS decline next week, which is expected. If we take into account the smartphone and tablet markets are growing, this means Apple is on the decline. This is not a surprise to me giving the fact that iOS is lagging in innovation and that the iphone and ipad no longer have an edge over competition.
Ex-cash P/E of under 5x now, approaching 1/2 of the broad market and the lowest valued large tech company, even lower than some of the PC names, which means the markets think the 'E' is way too overstated and that indeed earnings will see large declines from here. I'll have to go back a little further, but I think we are at the lowest valuation Apple has ever traded for on that metric as being a public company. Ladies and gentleman I give you what Tim Cook can deliver....effectively the most hated company on wall street.
Well, either Apple is an iFraud, or this is being set up to let people who missed out on the run up to 700 have another shot at it. Fascinating to watch the market at work.
Is this bad math 101? Why not extrapolate the 25% YoY growth to compare similar quarters as well as take into account additional carriers the iPhone is on to increase unit sales? Basically, your method is beyond bad.
What you missed is 5.9 million LTE devices and not phones. Big difference. Numbers add up. Note: AI did not include devices sold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
Then AI is reporting wrong? From the article:
"Of the 7.2 million smartphones activated in the quarter, 5.9 million of those were 4G LTE devices.
Maybe AI was reporting correctly what Verizon said?
If you look at the chart, Verizon activated 26.3m 4G LTEs in Q1'13 compared to 21.6m in Q4'12 i.e. a dif. = 4.7m
i.e. Verizon activated a total 4.7m 4G LTEs this quarter, of which 2m were iPhone 5s i.e. 42.6% of all 4G LTE phones
However the key fact is that Verizon activated a total of 25% more iPhones this year compared to the same period last year i.e. 4m in Q1'13 compared 3.2m in Q1'12.
Apple also INCREASED their market share of all Verizon smartphones from 51.6% of 6.2m smartphones activated in Q1'12 to 55.55% in Q1'13.
This means that non-iPhone smartphones share of Verizon activations declined YonY from 48.4% to 44.45%
This was despite the fact, as other have pointed out, that Verizon was promoting and pushing everything else but iPhones, which shows the iPhones amazing brand strength.
It is also worth noting that iPhones beat Kantar's estimates. They estimated that iPhones took 51.6% of Verizon activations, whereas iPhone actually took nearly 4% more share.
Kantar also estimated Windows took 4.1% share of Verizon activations, RIM 0.5% and other 0.2%. So ite appears that Apple may have taken this additional 4% share mostly from Android, which market share has dropped to less than 40%.
I see you continue to lie and make up data. It seems it is all you have left. Back when Jobs ran the company and Apple was a 5 billion market cap company, its PE minus cash position was... Let's say interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe
Laughable. The really important number isn't the totally predictable drop in Q to Q sales, but the unknown number sold for Chinese New Year. Nice try though, lttle troll....
Last year Apple started selling the 4s in China in january. This time they started in december. China numbers are going to be worst than last year. This will contribube even more to the yoy decline. Unless there is a new market in 2013 we didnt had in 2012, this is not looking good.
That being said, I am looking at this trading at 395 right now and its getting pretty cheap *IF* Apple can come up with decent product cycles in the second half of 2013. The problem is I am starting to lose faith in Apple capacity to innovate to a level of wow factor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N.
Is this bad math 101? Why not extrapolate the 25% YoY growth to compare similar quarters as well as take into account additional carriers the iPhone is on to increase unit sales? Basically, your method is beyond bad.
Because I consider the Q2Q decline to be more accurate for global sales then the Verizon YoY rise because VZ is taking market shares in the carrier business in the US. Look at the numbers next week, if they are near 31 millions I was right if they are near 40 millions you are.
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
With 7.2 million total smartphones activated in Verizon's first fiscal quarter, the iPhone accounted for more than half, with 4 million total Apple handsets activated in the three-month span.
Winning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Because I consider the Q2Q decline to be more accurate for global sales then the Verizon YoY rise because VZ is taking market shares in the carrier business in the US. Look at the numbers next week, if they are near 31 millions I was right if they are near 40 millions you are.
So in other words, really bad assumptions IMO. I find it odd you see a 25% YoY growth (iPhone to iPhone) and +4% YoY gain on Verizon (from 51% to 55% of smartphones) as a bad thing leading to a 11% decline in YoY sales.
Yes there is. VZW still sells 3G smartphones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
I think you will be disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I think Apple will come up with a bigger screen phone, but it will not be until it releases the next redesign. APple will not ignore the reality that many people prefer larger screens. Many people seem to use the phone as a general computer replacement.
More people prefer the smaller screened iPhone, more people prefer smaller screened (cheaper) Android phones.
Large screened phones are the minority.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60
So 4 million of 7.2 million couldn't give two hoots about a giant sized screen.
Another dose of reality for the losers who keep promoting the "big screen" fallacy.
Actually much less than that, that's just iPhone vs all other and my guess would be that at least half of those were not Samsung devices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
I dont know about others but Apple has until october 2013 to come out with a bigger screen. At that date I need to change my phone and it will be a "phablet".
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
I think you will be disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I think Apple will come up with a bigger screen phone, but it will not be until it releases the next redesign. APple will not ignore the reality that many people prefer larger screens. Many people seem to use the phone as a general computer replacement.
Given the plentitude of leaks, etc. about a cheaper iPhone and a dearth about a larger one, I'm guessing TBell is right.
Which could leave me buying a used older iPhone outright and holding on (or possibly a big used Android to sample the experience) and an iPad mini to tide over to '014.