Verizon's 4M iPhone activations in line with expectations, showing Apple's 'stability'

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
While iPhone growth may be slowing, Apple's hugely profitable smartphone franchise isn't going anywhere, as evidenced by the latest on-target activation numbers at Verizon, the largest carrier in the U.S.

Verizon


The iPhone represented more than half of all smartphone activations at Verizon in the March quarter, reaching almost 56 percent. That share is an increase from the same quarter a year ago, when the iPhone was 51 percent of Verizon smartphone activations.

To analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Verizon's results "show stability in iPhone's franchise in the U.S.," something that he believes should be viewed as a comforting positive to investors in AAPL stock.

Munster has projected that Apple sold 35.5 million iPhones in its March quarter, an estimate slightly lower than Wall Street expectations of 37 million units. The analyst noted that the big "wild card" leading up to Apple's earnings report is international iPhone sales.

Verizon also reported on Thursday that about half of the 4 million iPhone activations it saw were LTE models. Currently, only one iPhone model offers 4G LTE connectivity: the iPhone 5.

To Munster, a 50-50 split between the iPhone 5 and the legacy iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 models could imply a slightly weaker average selling price on iPhones for the March quarter. He had instead expected the iPhone 5 would account for about 60 percent of total iPhone sales.

If the iPhone 5 represented 50 percent of total iPhone sales outside of Verizon, he believes it could mean a 4 percent downside to his projected $625 average selling price. That would lower the ASP of the iPhone to $600 for the March quarter.

The speculation and estimates for Apple's March quarter will come to an end next week, when the company will report earnings for its second fiscal quarter of 2013 on Tuesday, April 23. Earnings will be reported after the markets close, and a conference call with members of Apple's executive team will follow at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    "But but but but but but STOCK PRICE!"

  • Reply 2 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I don't think you can draw that conclusion. Even if the US were still Apple's largest market it still wouldn't be representative of the world. I think all you can say with a fair amount of relative certainty is that Verizon's numbers show Apple's stability in the US.
  • Reply 3 of 45
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,580member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    "But but but but but but STOCK PRICE!"



    I'm not complaining here, since it doesn't affect me personally, and I'm not holding any AAPL at moment, but you have to admit that the stock action is kind of ridiculous, wouldn't you agree?


     


    It really is bizarro world, IMO. Up is down and good is bad.


     


    Who are all of these morons that are selling the stock? There has got to be tons of morons out there, as the selling never seems to stop, no matter which level AAPL drops to. And the volume is heavy too, both yesterday and today.

  • Reply 4 of 45
    jason98jason98 Posts: 763member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    The iPhone represented more than half of all smartphone activations at Verizon in the March quarter, reaching almost 56 percent. That share is an increase from the same quarter a year ago, when the iPhone was 51 percent of Verizon smartphone activations.

     


     


    Explain me this, if on the largest three US cell network operators (with addition of t-mobile now it is likely on top 4 now), iPhone has more than 50% smartphone share (on AT&T it is actually close to 80%), how come iPhone's market share is less than Androids (52% vs 39%) according to Comscore... ? image

  • Reply 5 of 45


     


     


    Quote:



    Verizon's 4M iPhone activations in line with expectations, showing Apple's 'stability'



    Apple has been stable only.

  • Reply 6 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I don't think you can draw that conclusion. Even if the US were still Apple's largest market it still wouldn't be representative of the world. I think all you can say with a fair amount of relative certainty is that Verizon's numbers show Apple's stability in the US.


    Really - Verizon sales up 25% for iPhone, 3% for non-iPhone Smartphone.  I would say it confirms Comscore and Statcounter data of continued growth of US iPhone share.

  • Reply 7 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Really - Verizon sales up 25% for iPhone, 3% for non-iPhone Smartphone.  I would say it confirms Comscore and Statcounter data of continued growth of US iPhone share.

    Is your "Really" comment a disagreement with my comment because the rest of your comment is restating what I said in my last sentence?
  • Reply 8 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jason98 View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    The iPhone represented more than half of all smartphone activations at Verizon in the March quarter, reaching almost 56 percent. That share is an increase from the same quarter a year ago, when the iPhone was 51 percent of Verizon smartphone activations.

     


     


    Explain me this, if on the largest three US cell network operators (with addition of t-mobile now it is likely on top 4 now), iPhone has more than 50% smartphone share (on AT&T it is actually close to 80%), how come iPhone's market share is less than Androids (52% vs 39%) according to Comscore... ? image



    This is exactly the question I have too! Numbers put out by these data vendors and consulting firms are pure bogus. What surprises me is why someone from the WSJ or CNBC doesn't ask these kinds of simple questions...

  • Reply 9 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


     


    It really is bizarro world, IMO. Up is down and good is bad.


     


    Who are all of these morons that are selling the stock? There has got to be tons of morons out there, as the selling never seems to stop, no matter which level AAPL drops to. And the volume is heavy too, both yesterday and today.



    I don't think anybody's home at Apple HQ.


     


    I do find the stock movement in the past couple days to be unprecedented.

  • Reply 10 of 45
    jason98jason98 Posts: 763member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I don't think anybody's home at Apple HQ.


     


    I do find the stock movement in the past couple days to be unprecedented.



     


    Look at this article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2013/04/18/three-apple-charts-you-need-to-see-now/


     


    The guy is basically saying that if Apple reports badly next week it may hit $200 (see the chart) which is almost below the cash reserves. image


  • Reply 11 of 45
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jason98 View Post


     


    Look at this article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2013/04/18/three-apple-charts-you-need-to-see-now/


     


    The guy is basically saying that if Apple reports badly next week it may hit $200 (see the chart) which is almost below the cash reserves. image




    Just how much credibility is some one worth who predicts a stock price at UNDER 1 future P/E less cash?


     


    As to who's selling? Probably people in the cost basis position like me of still being way above 1000% in profit, who've just gotten tired of all the drama. I'm not there yet, but I can sympathize.

  • Reply 12 of 45
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,796member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jason98 View Post


     


    Explain me this, if on the largest three US cell network operators (with addition of t-mobile now it is likely on top 4 now), iPhone has more than 50% smartphone share (on AT&T it is actually close to 80%), how come iPhone's market share is less than Androids (52% vs 39%) according to Comscore... ? image



    I have no idea what the actual numbers are. So I am not trying to dispute your claim. I suppose some possibilities might be that T-Mobile just started selling the iPhone officially so you can't really count them yet. Then add up all the pre-paid and regional carriers that also may or may not carry the iPhone or only did so fairly recently which works out to be about 50 or more million people. Even AT&T and Verizon have a lot of pre-paid plans as well. Please correct me if I am wrong but they did not not used to allow the iPhone on their pre-paid accounts only Android unless they have very recently changed their policies. Android is just sold on more carriers with more plan options but Apple has made tremendous strides to bridge that gap but it might take a year or more to really show the effects since people tend to keep their current phones around 2 years. 

  • Reply 13 of 45
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,796member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I don't think anybody's home at Apple HQ.


     


    I do find the stock movement in the past couple days to be unprecedented.



    My only hope is that all these recent drops are also in anticipation of very bad news next week. So perhaps the market is already taking bad numbers into account and we won't see a massive drop like $50 or more on bad earnings. 

  • Reply 14 of 45
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,283member


    Chartists are morons. Those charts work on an average sample of stocks, if ever, picking a stock and ignoring it's ( say) cash reserve is nonsense.

  • Reply 15 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    gwmac wrote: »
    My only hope is that all these recent drops are also in anticipation of very bad news next week. So perhaps the market is already taking bad numbers into account and we won't see a massive drop like $50 or more on bad earnings. 
    Oh it will. Doesn't ever seem to be a bottom with this stock. You'd think being down $300 or so in the last 6 months would have already priced in bad news. But if the quarter is not great or even if its totally predictable the stock will still drop, and we'll get more screaming about how Apple is doomed. And probably calls for Cook's head. If the quarter is better than expected the stock will be flat or maybe jump a bit, but not 5%. Only Amazon can lose money in a quarter and jump 5% the next day.
  • Reply 16 of 45
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,283member


    Comscore is installed base I think. Nevertheless it does seem a bit low.

  • Reply 17 of 45
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,221member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    This is exactly the question I have too! Numbers put out by these data vendors and consulting firms are pure bogus. What surprises me is why someone from the WSJ or CNBC doesn't ask these kinds of simple questions...



     


    That could be explained if iphone owners change there phone more often than android users. Like mention above there is the pre-paid market too.


     


    The market share numbers are not bogus...


     


    I know lots of people who bought the Nexus 4 at 300$. Thats unlock, and it allows you to get the pre-paid plans here in Canada. I am seeing a lot more android phones "in the wild" than last year.

  • Reply 18 of 45
    asdasd wrote: »
    Chartists are morons.

    That just about captures it.
  • Reply 19 of 45
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,509member
    herbapou wrote: »
    I am seeing a lot more android phones "in the wild" than last year.

    Yeah, me too.

    But I'm seeing a lot more iPhones also.
  • Reply 20 of 45
    herbapou wrote: »
    This is exactly the question I have too! Numbers put out by these data vendors and consulting firms are pure bogus. What surprises me is why someone from the WSJ or CNBC doesn't ask these kinds of simple questions...

    That could be explained if iphone owners change there phone more often than android users. Like mention above there is the pre-paid market too.

    The market share numbers are not bogus...

    I know lots of people who bought the Nexus 4 at 300$. Thats unlock, and it allows you to get the pre-paid plans here in Canada. I am seeing a lot more android phones "in the wild" than last year.

    No offense, but when it comes to tech sales and market shares, Canada is about as important as one slightly large US state (if that).
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